Last chance to show off your VP prediction skills

Most people seem to think Obama’s short list is Biden, Bayh and Kaine, but there’s a lot of late buzz about him surprising us all, perhaps with Hillary.

What do you think? I don’t think he will choose Hillary, because his people stupidly made a big point of saying earlier this summer that he didn’t want her on the ticket. If he chooses her now, it looks like he is acknowledging he can’t win without her, and I don’t think he wants to show weakness.

She would be a good choice, though. The right-wing hate machine has been doing a good job of rallying Republicans around McCain. The argument that choosing Hillary would galvanize conservatives against Obama no longer holds water.

UPDATE: Politico says Hillary was never vetted and Congressman Chet Edwards of Texas is on Obama’s short list. Please don’t let Obama be dumb enough to pick him. If he wants a conservative Democrat, it should at least be someone who puts a state in play. Also, Chet Edwards is not seasoned as a communicator on the national stage.

SECOND UPDATE: A friend of a friend of a source of Matt Stoller says Biden’s family is making plans to be in Springfield this Saturday:…

THIRD UPDATE: Marc Ambinder picks up on a chartered flight from Chicago’s Midway airport to New Castle, Delaware…possibly going to pick up Biden’s family?


  • I'm going with my gut...

    and guessing it’s going to be Biden.  Outside chance for Sebelius, but way outside.

    I woke up really early this morning and thought I’d heard my phone ring text message from downstairs.  Kind of embarrassing to admit, but I leapt up and ran down to check it.  My husband promptly mocked me.  Tomorrow morning perhaps?

    • Checking my cell as well

      Mrs. RF has been mocking me as well as I’ve been checking my phone for text messages every morning this week.

      Of the top names being circulated, I’m guessing he’ll go with Bayh.  I think he’s one of the safer “do-no-harm” choices.  But I would personally rather have Biden.  I agree with Desmoinesdem, Hillary could be a good choice.  At this point of time it would have some surprise value.  With foreign policy issues becoming more important again, Bill Richardson’s stock may have risen.

      • Bayh does harm

        if you’re trying to make your case on economic policy. He voted for the Bush tax cuts in 2001.

        Also, we lose a Senate seat if he becomes VP.

        But he is unlikely to make gaffes.

        I haven’t heard any speculation about Richardson even being on the short list. That would be a major surprise.

        • Economic policy...

          or just the “blech” factor – but that’s just me.  Other than possibly helping to bring in Indiana, Bayh holds zero appeal for me.

  • I have a feeling

    by the way the campaign is keeping this so completely under raps that it could be an outsider, I think Biden would be best (he was my second choice behind Sebielus) but I would not be surprised if he picked Richardson because of the very close races in the SW.

  • One last guess

    My guess: it’s Biden.

    I think Bayh was probably within grasp of it at one point, but the blog backlash probably killed his chances. I’m also starting to wonder about a surprise pick, although I don’t think it will be Hillary. (Only because I don’t think she wants it…) I also thought Richardson had a shot, but riverdog was probably right–he didn’t pass the vetting test.

    My guess for a dark horse–Al Gore. I don’t think Al Gore wants to be VP, but I’ve long thought that if Obama was in trouble and needed him badly, he would serve again. And with Obama’s disappointing polling lately, we could see exactly that kind of scenario. And it makes sense that they would speak together on Thursday night at Mile High if they were the ticket.

    • Gore

      The biggest news would be Al Gore.  It would obviously be huge, and I would be thrilled.  But I have to assume Gore really is not interested.

    • it would look ridiculous

      for Gore, who is way more qualified to be president, on the ticket as VP for a guy who was in the Illinois Senate four years ago. But of course I would like to see Gore involved in the next administration.

      • Ridiculous or magnanimous?

        Perhaps, but the benefit to the ticket could be huge.

        I also think Gore doesn’t want to be VP, RF. But I think he could be drafted into it. Given the state of the polls right now (neck and neck when, by all rights, Obama should be way ahead) it could be a sort of sacrifice bunt on Gore’s part in order to help get Obama across home plate.

        And I’m not sure Gore would look totally ridiculous–it might be considered a magnanimous gesture on his part. Sort of a “passing the torch” moment. (For what it’s worth, I think this whole scenario is a huge outside chance, but it could happen.)

        • millions of people

          including me would much rather see Gore at the top of the ticket. I am not sure Obama would want to invite those kind of feelings, even if Gore were willing to do the job again.

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