Does Marc Ambinder know something we don't know?

Writing today about the Senate elections of 2010, Marc Ambinder casually added,

But… more Republican retirements are expected, including at least two in blue states (Chuck Grassley of Iowa and George Voinovich of Ohio. (A Voinovich spokesperson denies the retirement rumor.))

Anyone know why Ambinder would seem so sure Chuck Grassley is retiring? I don’t know anyone here who thinks it’s even 50-50 that he’ll go.

Click here for more speculation about why Grassley might retire rather than seek a sixth term.

  • I dont know

    He is the tenth eldest senator now

    Robert Byrd (D-WV) November 20, 1917 (age 91)

    Ted Stevens (R-AK) November 18, 1923 (age 85)

    Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) January 23, 1924  (age 84)

    Daniel Inouye (D-HI) September 7, 1924  (age 84)

    Daniel Akaka (D-HI) September 11, 1924  (age 84)

    John Warner (R-VA) February 18, 1927  (age 81)

    Arlen Specter (R-PA) February 12, 1930  (age 78)

    Jim Bunning (R-KY) October 23, 1931  (age 77)

    Ted Kennedy (D-MA) February 22, 1932  (age 76)

    Dick Lugar (R-IN) April 4, 1932  (age 76)

    Pete Domenici (R-NM) May 7, 1932  (age 76)

    Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) June 22, 1933 (age 75)

    Chuck Grassley (R-IA) September 17, 1933 (age 75)

    The ones in bold aren’t returning.

    He is a member of the old guard conservatives and works hard to curb the out of control spending and terrible moral failings by the Republicans.

    This should make him popular in a party that claims to run on a high moral ground, but it only makes him a pariah among the “Party of words and broken promises”.

    I give it 75/25. The Republican Party that Grassley was elected to in 1974 holds absolutely no resemblence to the one that is in power today.

  • 65/35

    I don’t know if Grassley will retire or not. There are so many factors in play that it makes it hard to say at this point. And there’s so much that we don’t know. I think we’ll have a much better idea in 6 months or so.

    I’d put the odds at 65%–he stays, 35% he goes.  

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