Conlin has an uphill battle against Grassley

The Des Moines Register released more results from its latest Iowa poll by Selzer and Co., and Senator Chuck Grassley’s approval rating was 57 percent, the same as in the Register’s September poll. Only 32 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Grassley’s work.

Grassley’s 57 percent approval figure remains well short of the 75 percent he began the year with. […]

Political independents and Democrats have been responsible for much of Grassley’s slide since January. He made up little ground with them this fall. […]

More than half of Republicans say he did an excellent or good job on health care, while only about a quarter of Democrats and 39 percent of independents rate his work positively.

In a head to head matchup against Roxanne Conlin, Grassley led 57 percent to 30 percent. Last month’s Research 2000 poll of Iowans found Grassley leading Conlin by a much narrower margin, 51 percent to 39 percent. I’d like to see more polling of this race, but given Selzer’s track record in Iowa, I’m going to assume that the Register poll is close to the mark.

Since the media won’t be as focused on health care reform in the autumn of 2010, Democrats will need to build a case against Grassley that goes beyond his double-dealing on that issue. Even if Democrats run a near-perfect campaign against Grassley, he is very likely to be re-elected unless he makes some unforced errors.

On the other hand, it’s worth remembering that Grassley’s never been re-elected with less than 66 percent of the vote before. Holding him below 60 percent, or better yet below 55 percent, would greatly help down-ticket Democratic candidates next November.

Incidentally, Selzer’s poll for the Register found Senator Tom Harkin’s approve/disapprove numbers at 54/33, which is fairly strong but down from the 70 percent approval rating Harkin had in the Register’s January poll.  

  • These polls on Harkin and Grassley

    are always interesting.

    While they’re both rather popular, it always seems that Grassley’s approval ratings are 3-5 points higher than Harkin’s.  I ponder why that is.

    It’s gonna be a very tough race for Conlin, but she can self-finance, and the DSCC can save that money, and send it to competitive races.

  • Grassley May Not Win This

    I guess we’ll see, but I have real doubts about Grassley being as popular as this poll suggests.

    I hope voters get to see the real Grassley between now and 2010. He’s a former moderate Republican turned wingnut and a member of The C Street Family, that misogynistic, secretive religious group whose members think they’re morally superior to others (Bart Stupak is a member).

    Grassley is responsible for people losing their homes due to bankruptcy. He was known as “The Architect” of the 2005 Bankruptcy Bill. He’s wanted to gut Social Security for ages.

    There’s a lot negative stuff on Grassley out there, and I hope his eventual opponent won’t pull punches.    

  • issues make it even a higher climb for Conlin.....

    take education for instance…her huge financial support for past state candidates running for office on an education platform of social promotion (promoting students from grade to grade regardless of merit) is way out of touch with iowa values (but practiced far too often in iowa schools…..).

    it is pretty simple, we do not need those Conlin education values as either iowa educational policy, or federal education policy.

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