Terry Branstad's campaign is building up suspense surrounding his choice for lieutenant governor, promising to reveal the name first to those who sign up for campaign texts. Before that happens, I thought I'd invite Bleeding Heartland readers to another round of scenario spinning.
A unity ticket of Branstad and Bob Vander Plaats, who won 40 percent of the votes in the GOP primary, was never in the cards. I see that Branstad supporter Craig Robinson is making sure everyone hears that Vander Plaats allegedly demanded the lieutenant governor slot as his price for not running as an independent candidate. Making Vander Plaats into the bad guy now will help Branstad's people discredit him if he tries to run as a spoiler. I'll have more to say on that in a future post, but I can't see how Vander Plaats could organize or finance a third-party bid. His key staffer, Eric Woolson, just took a job with Senator Chuck Grassley's re-election campaign.
Getting back to Branstad's running mate, the obvious choice is Rod Roberts, who finished a distant third in the June 8 primary. He was the best surrogate Branstad could have hoped for during the primary campaign, and the two men acted friendly toward each other during the third gubernatorial debate. A bunch of Republicans, mostly from western Iowa, are lobbying Branstad to pick Roberts, but Roberts is wisely not begging for the job in public.
Roberts might reassure some social conservatives about Branstad's intentions, but a different way to unify the party would be to choose someone who endorsed Vander Plaats for governor. Retiring State Representative Jodi Tymeson might fit the bill; she co-chaired the Vander Plaats campaign and probably would have been his running mate had he pulled off an upset in the primary. My hunch is that Branstad won't pick a Vander Plaats supporter. If Branstad felt he needed a Vander Plaats loyalist by his side to win in November, things might be different, but recent polls may have reassured him that he can choose whomever he wants. Why reward someone who was in the opposing camp?
Some people expect Branstad to pick a running mate from eastern Iowa, because about two-thirds of this state's voters live east of I-35. Plenty of current and former state legislators from eastern Iowa endorsed Branstad during the primary campaign. I wouldn't rule out former gubernatorial candidate Christian Fong either. He didn't endorse anyone before the June 8 primary, but key backers of his brief campaign, notably Iowans for Tax Relief, got behind Branstad. Fong would bring generational balance to the ticket. He has been building a new organization, the Iowa Dream Project, which is seeking to increase youngish conservative voter turnout. Since Branstad is copying the Obama campaign's tactic for getting people to sign up for text messages, why not pick a running mate who is well-versed in Obama-style campaign rhetoric?
On the other hand, Craig Robinson has argued that Branstad doesn't need help in the east, where he did well in the primary. Branstad's worst performance was in central Iowa, so Robinson argues that Branstad needs a running mate who's a social conservative well-known in central Iowa. He pushes former State Senator Jeff Lamberti, who might have beaten Leonard Boswell in a better year for Republicans, and unsuccessful Congressional candidate Jim Gibbons. (But wait, I thought Coach Gibbons "burned the boats!") Other possibilities named by Robinson include former state legislator Carmine Boal, who has been policy director for the current Branstad campaign. Robinson didn't suggest Tymeson or any Vander Plaats endorser, as far as I am aware.
Several members of the business community made Robinson's "short list" for Branstad running mates, including Doug Reichardt, whose name I kept hearing in this context last fall, and Vermeer Corporation CEO Mary Andringa. Last year there was some speculation Andringa would run for governor herself.
What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? Who would be a smart lieutenant governor pick for Branstad, and whom will he choose?
UPDATE: Tom Beaumont published a piece on Branstad's running mate in the Sunday Des Moines Register. Christian Fong says Branstad hasn't called him, which probably means he is not under serious consideration. (Branstad plans to announce his choice before the June 26 Iowa GOP state convention.) Also off the short list, according to Beaumont, are Vermeer CEO Andringa and former State Senator Chuck Larson.
However, former State Senator Jeff Lamberti is being considered and told the Register that while he is "certainly not looking for a job," it "would be pretty hard to say no" if asked to be lieutenant governor. Jim Gibbons is also apparently on the list, and he is looking for a job, because he quit his last job to run for Congress.
Beaumont's article indicates that Branstad is considering Rod Roberts, Iowa GOP chair Matt Strawn and State Senator Kim Reynolds of Osceola (Senate District 48). I know little about Reynolds and don't see the advantage of choosing her over someone like Carmine Boal or Sandy Greiner, who have worked closely with Branstad. Reynolds is the only elected official I know of who has a protected Twitter account that points to a spammy-looking website.
this is NOT an easy choice.........
top tier: Andringa, Fong, Gibbons. I can see Mary Andringa being an excellent first choice wih few negatives....Fong and Gibbons both have advantages, but both were crushed in their own races which is a huge hurdle.
Second tier: Roberts, or any strong republican woman state legislator
Third tier: Reichardt, Doug Gross
Gibbons is not top tier
Are you kidding? Tymeson, Boal or Lamberti, or someone from eastern Iowa, or Roberts, would be much better choices.
if Branstad chooses Gibbons
It's a sign that he doesn't want someone with any policy background or interest--just someone he feels personally comfortable with and not threatened by. That would just be a joke pick.
Gibbons and Zaun
Yeah, I gotta agree with Desmoinesdem. I don't see Gibbons getting it. No record and he doesn't bring anything "extra" to the table. Andringa is a woman and brings some heavy business cred, for example. Fong is asian and brings some CR/eastern Iowa contacts.
Zaun, on the other hand, would have been perfect for Branstad, had he not won the primary. Conservative credentials, runs great in Des Moines, fairly young and energetic, etc.
Whether Branstad (or Zaun) wins or loses, I would put Zaun on the shortlist for 2014 for sure.
That'd be rubbing BVP's nose in it! Oh, ihopeihopeihope...
and one more for good measure...
a handicapper's long shot, but would be an excellent choice....
Bring back da Funk....
Dave Funk. Final answer. Just because...
Check with Dave...I think he might have some other plans going right now.....(smiles)
What's he up to? His Twitter account seems to be gone.
not gone, just renamed
Here he is on Twitter, but I still can't find anything that says what he's up to.
his congressional campaign into a bid for Lt. Governor?
As long as Gibbons didn't face any questions on the issues he would be fine
If you want someone who can at least speak on the issues facing Iowa, whether you agree with them or not you go with Roberts or Fong.
Vander Plaats' proxy
I agree that there's no way that BVP can mount an independent bid that ends up anywhere close to successful. If, as Craig Robinson reports, making BVP Lt. Gov is the price for keeping him out of the race--than Branstad was right to tell him to get stuffed.
However, I think it's likely that BVP might still try to angle for a seat at the table. BVP's price for silence might be to get a proxy of his on the ticket. Jodi Tymeson would, I think, be acceptable to the Branstad people. Rod Roberts too, would be a nice compromise.
Any time a politician says "I'm not looking for a job, but I'd give it serious consideration" it means "I really, really want a job". Still, Lamberti doesn't have a shot.
Kim Reynolds, from what little I can find about her, looks like a real dark horse candidate. She's definitely one to watch.
Branstad is not smart enough
to pick Tymeson in my opinion.