Quinnipiac’s latest Iowa caucus poll adds to the growing body of survey research suggesting that Hillary Clinton’s supposed “Iowa problem” exists only in the minds of some political reporters. Details are after the jump.
From June 12 – 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,277 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
Judging by the demographics, Quinnipiac didn’t over-sample registered Democrats or young people who may lean Democratic. Among this poll’s respondents, just 40 percent approved of President Barack Obama’s job performance, while 55 percent disapproved. Yet 52 percent have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton, and just 41 percent unfavorable, and Clinton was ahead of every Republican tested.
New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie is inching his way back into the 2016 presidential race in Iowa and now trails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 44 – 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 48 – 35 percent Clinton lead in a March 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Secretary Clinton tops other possible Republican 2016 contenders:
46 – 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
46 – 39 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee;
49 – 36 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
47 – 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
Support for Clinton among Iowa’s independent voters ranges from a too-close-to-call 42 percent for the Democrat to 38 percent for Ryan to a 47 – 30 percent Clinton lead over Bush.
Iowa voters give Clinton a 52 – 41 percent favorability, compared to 41 – 34 percent for Huckabee, divided scores of 34 – 32 percent for Paul, 35 – 35 percent for Ryan and 34 – 36 percent for Christie, and a negative 28 – 36 percent for Bush.
General election head-to-heads are of limited value now, as Hillary Clinton is so much better-known than most of the Republicans who may run for president in 2016. Plus, Quinnipiac didn’t test Clinton against every possible candidate. If the eventual nominee is, say, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (my early pick to win the Iowa caucuses), he would have much more name recognition by mid-2016 than he does now.
Iowa Democratic insiders believe Hillary Clinton could help candidates before this year’s midterm election, according to Roll Call reporter Emily Cahn.
Preferred Clinton: Hillary
The second she steps foot in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, national political reporters will swarm. That might make the former first lady reluctant, but Democrats believe she would boost Rep. Bruce Braley’s Senate campaign and former state Sen. Staci Appel’s bid in Iowa’s 3rd District – one of just seven tossup House contests on the map this cycle.
Clinton could help Braley with female voters as he faces state Sen. Joni Ernst – the Republican nominee looking to become the first woman elected to Congress from the Hawkeye State.
I believe Clinton will make at least one Iowa stop this year, promoting her book and a few Democratic candidates. As a state senator, Staci Appel was an early Clinton endorser and appeared at many Clinton events during the 2008 Iowa caucus campaign. State Senator Jack Hatch came on board for Clinton shortly before the caucuses. I would be surprised if Clinton doesn’t do something to assist Appel’s campaign against David Young in IA-03 and Hatch’s gubernatorial bid. While she might not be motivated to make a special Iowa trip to support the U.S. Senate bid of Bruce Braley (a John Edwards endorser for the 2008 caucuses), she might do something for Braley while she’s in our neighborhood. If Braley wins, Clinton would presumably want to be able to take some of the credit. If Braley loses the seat long held by Senator Tom Harkin, she might not want to be accused of having done nothing to help.
Harkin stayed neutral before the 2008 caucuses, but his wife Ruth Harkin backed Hillary’s campaign.
Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.