Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association.
I’ve been waiting for the 2024 election in Venezuela. In my head, I was planning an essay. A turnaround in the fortunes of Venezuela is critical to abating of out-of-control migration in the Western Hemisphere.
Between 2014 and 2023, an estimated 7.7 million left Venezuela as migrants. That’s 20 percent of the country’s population, or about 2,000 per day on average. Of these, 6.5 million have found temporary relocation in Latin America and the Caribbean, mainly Columbia and Peru.
The root causes of this unprecedented flow of migrants and refugees include democratic breakdown, repression, and a lack of basic human rights. These remain unchanged in Venezuela. There is also a deep economic crisis driven by devastating policies and a kleptocracy that has characterized the political landscape during the last 20 years. Nineteen million Venezuelan citizens are experiencing food and medical insecurity. It’s a boiling pot ready to explode.
Betilde Muñoz-Pogossian and Alexandra Winkler observed in their November 2023 article on “The Persistence of the Venezuelan Migrant and Refugee Crisis,”
The outflow of refugees and migrants from Venezuela is the largest displacement crisis in the world, with almost 7.7 million migrants and refugees as of August 2023. This is an even greater number than the displacement of Syrians or Ukrainians outside of their countries.
Despite these numbers, the Venezuelan migrant and refugee crisis, quite unfortunately, has climbed down the list of political and policy priorities, with fewer headlines in the media and sporadic policy conversations in Washington.
As NBC News reported in August 2023, the U.S. has seen huge migration shifts from the crisis in Venezuela: According to a Pew Research Center analysis, there were an estimated 640,000 Latinos of Venezuelan origin living in the U.S. — a 592 percent increase since 2000.
In 2023, more than 440,000 Venezuelans crossed the dangerous Darién Gap (70 miles of nearly impenetrable jungle between Columbia and Panama), presumably traveling toward the U.S. Most don’t make it that far.
The forthcoming issue of The Atlantic carries a cover story by Caitlin Dickerson entitled “Seventy Miles in Hell.” For those who worry about migration or believe Donald Trump’s characterization of migrants, it’s a must-read. Shocking to me is the grip that cartels have over the Darién Gap, and the people who try to cross.
in her article, Dickerson tells of her investigation into the situation for migrants in a stretch jungle where the U.S. has spent years trying to discourage migration by pressuring its Latin American neighbors to close off established routes and deny visas to foreigners trying to fly into countries close to the U.S. border.
This approach, writes Dickerson, has simply rerouted them through the jungle, and shifted the management of their passage onto criminal organizations, which have eagerly taken advantage. The Gulf Clan, which now calls itself Ejército Gaitanista de Colombia, effectively controls this part of northern Colombia. It has long moved drugs and weapons through the Darién Gap; now it moves people too.
Despite efforts in other South American countries, the reality is that the region is still recovering from setbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuelan migrants are now leaving countries like Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Chile, where they had originally migrated, due to low salaries, inflation, and lack of jobs, crowding, and are making the dangerous trek to reach the U.S. border.
More than 20 million people in the Western hemisphere
Writing in the March/April 2024 edition of Foreign Affairs magazine, Shannon K. O’Neil puts his finger on the enormity of the issue.
Over 20 million people in the Western Hemisphere have been forcibly driven from their homes by violence, repression, extreme weather, and economic desperation. That accounts for 20 percent of displaced people worldwide, even though Latin America is home to less than ten percent of the world’s population. Many of these sojourners are trying to cross the U.S.-Mexican border.
But Americans often do not realize that their country is not alone in receiving migrants: of the more than seven million Venezuelans who have fled their country since 2015, eight in ten live elsewhere in Latin America. Costa Rica is home to over half of all Nicaraguan refugees and asylum seekers.“
No doubt a good portion of these 20 million displaced and impoverished persons, mostly Latin Americans, come to the U.S. southern border looking for work and security. Numbers are confusing. Republicans overestimate and say Democrats under report.
The July 28 Venezuelan election
Have you heard about Nicolás Maduro? He’s the 62-year old, highly controversial, probably illegitimate, president of a troubled South American country. Maduro was a protégée of the socialist dictator Hugo Chávez, who died in office in March 2013.
Chávez had nationalized the country’s oil industry. The little country Venezuela sits on the largest reservoir of untapped crude oil in the world. Chávez did not diversify the economy, and his government never envisioned a life without oil profits. Chávez, a socialist in the classic sense, used profits from oil to fund a better life in education, health, etc. for most people … and to enrich himself and his supporters. When oil prices collapsed, democracy vanished.
Maduro, who served as vice president to Chávez, assumed the presidency as the country’s economy faced growing poverty, inflation, and shortages of vital products. Maduro took the country further into repressive decline.
Maduro’s mentor aligned himself with the Marxist–Leninist governments of Fidel and then Raúl Castro in Cuba, as well as the socialist governments of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua.
Now Venezuela’s socialist dictator says he won last month’s election. The processing of those votes and the announcement of results by the Maduro-controlled National Electoral Council was deeply flawed, yielding an announced outcome that does not represent the will of the Venezuelan people. The State Department’s spokesperson Matthew Miller said in an August 2 readout,
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado. Secretary Blinken congratulated Mr. González Urrutia for receiving the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election as documented by the democratic opposition’s extensive efforts to ensure a transparent accounting of the votes.
The Secretary expressed his concern for their safety and well-being following the election and condemned all political violence and repression. The Secretary applauded the Venezuelan people for their dedication to democracy in the face of significant challenges and reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to supporting the process of re-establishing democratic norms in Venezuela.
Parallels to United States
There are evident parallels in the Venezuelan dictator’s refusal to accept the results of the July 28 presidential election and Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 U.S. election—as well as the Republican’s threats to deny the results of the 2024 election, if he loses.
Before the Venezuelan election, more than 40 percent of Venezuelans surveyed said they would consider leaving the country if President Nicolás Maduro remained in power. If that happens, the whole Western hemisphere will feel the chaos.
Trump has said multiple times, including in a campaign email this week, that “countries, particularly Venezuela, are exporting their criminals to the United States.”
But what Trump said is false. Although the number of violent deaths in Venezuela fell by close to 25 percent in 2023, compared to 2021 and 2022, according to data from the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence, the decrease is part of a trend that has been observed since 2018—when Trump was president.
It appears that the pro-democracy candidate won Venezuela’s July election. The U.S. and most other South America countries acknowledge this. The tally sheets from 80 percent of the polling places show Edmundo González Urrutia and his party champion María Corina Machado won by a 2-1 margin.
That was the story I hoped to write.
How to steal an election
The Cedar Rapids Gazette opinion writer Chris Espersen beat me to the punch on seeing parallels. She wrote on August 4,
Let’s talk about a man who has conned his country. Who has little business being a world leader, because he has no relevant experience in running the government of an entire country. No previous governing, legislating, or policymaking experience even at the local level. A populist, a liar, and a fraud. Who can be charming and charismatic, and a figure who is seen larger than life. A man who has been formally charged with crimes by the U.S. Department of Justice. Someone who looks out for only his own self-interest while the country’s economic, social and political structures crumble.
I am talking, of course, about Nicolás Maduro. Who did you think I was talking about?
Espersen had talked with Nelfer Bastidas, a Venezuelan immigrant who is an electrician living in Des Moines. Bastidas had hoped the election would put a pro-democracy candidate into the presidency. “I did what I could from Iowa,” he said, “to help mobilize people and help them vote.” He sent money so that people could get transportation to voting sites. That hope quickly turned to dejection when Maduro claimed victory.
In Venezuela, people have taken to the streets by the thousands. More than 1,000 people have been arrested and at least sixteen have been killed in mass protests since the election, government officials and civil society groups said Wednesday (four days after the Sunday, July 28 election).
As the Washington Post reported, a group of opposition leaders, some holed up inside the Argentine Embassy in Caracas for months to evade arrest warrants, recruited and coordinated “captains” across the country. They set up 133 locations, with high-definition scanners and Starlink internet access, where volunteers gathered, digitized and uploaded the documents to an app created for the purpose.
Maduro reached a deal with the opposition last year to conduct a free and fair presidential election in 2024.
The Biden administration
The Biden administration had agreed to lift sanctions on Venezuelan oil and return to normal relations if the opposition could participate in competitive presidential elections, according to a deal secretly signed in Qatar last year, which Maduro made public on social media.
Three days after the July 28 election, Maduro published the document again. Minutes later, Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez had won the Venezuelan presidential elections, citing the vote tallies presented by the opposition. The government-controlled electoral council said Maduro won, providing what were widely seen as fraudulent numbers.
As he has done for years to retain power, Maduro manipulated the electoral process and timeline to his advantage; electoral irregularities included everything from intimidation and disenfranchisement of voters to improper tabulation of the results to outright bans on the participation of Venezuela’s most popular political parties and candidates. Maduro and his inner circle had continued to imprison civic, military, and political leaders and have used the distribution of food as a tool for social control.
González received the most votes in Venezuela’s election
Tally sheets, says the U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, indicate that González received the most votes in the July 28 election by an insurmountable margin.
The Washington Post examined 23,000 “tally sheets” obtained by the opposition party. The sheets represent 80 percent of the voting machines nationwide. A separate analysis by independent researchers from the U.S., Brazil and Venezuela showed opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzále received 66 percent of the vote to Maduro’s 31 percent.
González had established a commanding lead in pre-election opinion polls, in large part thanks to the endorsement of banned opposition leader María Corina Machado. Opposition leaders say their candidate won, based the tally sheets received directly from polling stations throughout Venezuela.
Independent observers have corroborated these facts, and this outcome was also supported by election day exit polls and quick counts. In the days since the election, we have consulted widely with partners and allies around the world, and while countries have taken different approaches in responding, none have concluded that Nicolás Maduro received the most votes this election.
Analyst Phil Gunson commented,
Countries in the region and further afield that have commented on the election have generally pressed for full transparency concerning the 28 July poll results, including publication of a complete breakdown of voting by polling station. The exception is countries with strong links to Maduro, including Russia, China, Cuba, Bolivia and Honduras, among others.
Four days after the election, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said again in a statement, “it is clear to the United States … that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes.”
“What I need people to understand is life can change a lot just with someone in power like [Maduro],” Bastidas solemnly told Espersen. All global citizens are one charismatic, despotic leader away from having to make very difficult decisions in order to maintain a safe life, much less a decent life. From having to leave family and lifelong homes for extreme safety or financial reasons.
It’s not the first time Maduro has committed fraud
In 2017 the United States Department of the Treasury sanctioned President Maduro, labeled him a dictator, and prevented him from entering the United States. Chilean president Sebastián Piñera also labeled Maduro a dictator.
Human Rights Watch described the process that Maduro used to take over National Assembly as a dictatorship and said the “Venezuelan government is tightening its stranglehold on the country’s basic institutions of democracy at a terrifying speed.”
A 2018 Amnesty International report “accused Nicolas Maduro’s government of committing some of the worst human rights violations in Venezuela’s history.” The report found the violence was carried out especially in Venezuela’s poor neighborhoods, and included “8,292 extrajudicial deaths carried out between 2015 and 2017.”
On January 10, 2019, Maduro illegally claimed the presidency of Venezuela, despite global condemnation of a rigged election.
At the time, the U.S. Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo said:
- The United States is working with a global coalition of countries in support of the Venezuelan people as they fight to restore democracy and rebuild the economy in their country, which currently suffers under the repressive and corrupt misrule of the dictator Nicolas Maduro and his illegitimate regime.
- We recognize and support interim President Juan Guaido and the National Assembly, which is the sole remaining legitimate and democratic institution in the country.
- Meanwhile, Maduro and his inner circle dismantle Venezuelan democracy piece by piece, as they plunder the country’s natural resources to enrich themselves.
- A devastating health and humanitarian crisis continues to grow, with consequences for our whole hemisphere.
- The United States seeks a peaceful restoration of democracy in Venezuela. The lays out an equitable and common-sense path to free and fair presidential elections.”
Looking back, the Pompeo statement drips with irony, given Donald Trump’s’s attempt to reverse the 2020 election, almost two years to the day after Maduro did the same, but successfully, in Venezuela. New York Times journalist Lara Jakes wrote of Pompeo in November 2020, “He was among the staunchest Trump loyalists in the Cabinet and routinely flouted State Department norms in aid of Trump’s objectives, including supporting Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.”
Lack of access to adequate food, water and healthcare remained a serious concern. By the end of 2022, the “between the government and the opposition” agreements had still not been implemented. The agreement would have established a humanitarian fund drawn from Venezuelan assets seized abroad and managed by the UN to attend to urgent issues related to health, education and electricity services.
Latin America offers the best hope the U.S. has to diversify
Writing in Foreign Affairs, Latin American scholar Shannon O’Neil chastened the U.S. for neglecting solutions in our country’s own backyard. “If Latin American nations prosper,” says O’Neil, “their citizens will have more reasons to plan for futures at home.
“If Washington better understood the gains it could make by integrating Latin America more thoroughly into U.S. supply chains, it might also find it easier to address the hopelessly gridlocked, ideologically charged issue of immigration. If Latin American nations prosper, their citizens will have more reasons to plan for futures at home.”
This sluggish performance (in the Western Hemisphere) has many drivers: COVID-19 arguably hit Latin America harder than any other region, and many governments there have struggled to ensure their populations’ basic safety. Tens of millions of Latin Americans have lost their middle-class foothold as gains in fighting poverty and inequality in the first part of the twenty-first century have largely reversed.
However, O’Neil argued,
Latin America offers the best hope the United States has to diversify and relocate its vulnerable, highly consequential supply chains for critical minerals, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and large-capacity batteries—all four of the supply chains that Biden’s administration identified as most crucial to U.S. security and prosperity. Latin America has ample reserves of half the over four dozen minerals Biden deemed critical.
The region has a particular abundance of the minerals needed to make batteries: it is estimated to hold 60 percent of the world’s lithium reserves, 23 percent of the world’s graphite, and over 15 percent of its manganese and nickel. Latin America already mines a good amount of the world’s copper, which is crucial for the construction of electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other green technologies.
Latin America also has a strong leg up through formal preferential trading ties, as a majority of all U.S. free trade agreements are with countries in the region. These reduce costs for importers and exporters, and safeguard investments. They also enable critical mineral providers to take advantage of U.S. subsidies for electric vehicles. Mexico can provide a further lift to the United States’ ambition to build out resilient electric vehicle supply chains: its factories are already pillars of the North American car industry, and electric vehicle components manufactured in Mexico or Canada are eligible for the IRA’s full set of subsidies.
HOPE: Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection
In June 2022, the Biden-Harris Administration launched the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection, a commitment by leaders from 20 nations from across the entire Western Hemisphere “to strengthen national, regional, and hemispheric efforts to create the conditions for safe, orderly, humane, and regular migration and to strengthen frameworks for international protection and cooperation.” Neither Venezuela nor its Latin American allies joined the compact.
This initiative has not received the media coverage it deserves. The New York Times reported details about the summit at the time.
The Los Angeles Declaration is a first-of-its-kind framework to promote coordinated action under three core pillars: (1) addressing root causes and supporting the integration of migrants to foster long-term stabilization; (2) expanding lawful pathways; and (3) strengthening humane enforcement.
According to Secretary Blinken, the Declaration addresses the need to protect the safety and dignity of migrants, refugees, asylum-seekers and stateless persons. It also highlights the need to address the root causes that push people to leave their home countries.
From the New York Times report in June 2022:
On Tuesday morning, Ms. Harris unveiled the central piece of her effort: a commitment of nearly $2 billion from a variety of companies that have pledged to invest in Latin America in the coming years, bringing jobs and the promise of economic prosperity.
History is not kind to such efforts in the region. Previous pledges of economic revitalization have failed to do much to counter the poverty and corruption that plague many of the countries in Central and South America.
But Ms. Harris has said she believes the pledges by the companies — including Gap, Visa and several others — will provide opportunities for migrants and make it less likely that they will seek to cross into the United States illegally.
Third Ministerial
On May 7, 2024, Blinken was in Guatemala for the Third Ministerial of the ministerial co-signers to the Declaration, hosted by the newly elected “progressive” Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo, who took office in January 2024.
Blinken said during a news conference with Guatemala President Arévalo that since the signing of the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection,
together, we have partnered to transform our hemisphere’s approach to this truly historic challenge.
We’ve taken meaningful steps to expand lawful migration pathways as an alternative to irregular migration, to improve enforcement efforts, to support host communities, to strengthen protections for vulnerable populations. […]
At the core of our efforts is the message that individuals should take advantage of lawful pathways rather than make the dangerous journey north.
Blinken also said the Biden administration would work with the U.S. Congress to come up with another $578 million in aid to countries in the hemisphere who host migrants. Signatory countries said they would set up a coordinating body to evaluate countries’ progress in meeting their commitments.
Blinken noted that during the past two years progress had been made in all three of the core pillars. Still, the region saw record migration last year both through the treacherous Darien Gap separating Colombia and Panama and at the U.S. border. He added,
Countries like Colombia, Ecuador, Peru have provided legal status to millions of Venezuelans who are – and are helping them contribute to host communities through U.S.-supported integration centers. Mexico and Canada established new labor pathways for migrants, helping workers build skills and economies grow. Colombia, Panama, Guatemala, Honduras stepped up efforts to counter human smuggling. And just yesterday, the United States and Costa Rica set up a Biometric Data Sharing Partnership that will deepen our collaboration on this critical priority.
Guatemala committed to expanding access to offices where migrants can be screened and receive information about legal pathways. They had been limited to only Guatemalans, but now will also assist Hondurans, Salvadorans, and Nicaraguans.
Mexico Foreign Affairs Secretary Alicia Bárcena said via the social platform X that her country and the U.S. were on the same page: “Our presidents share the interest in taking on the structural causes of migration in the region and tackling shared challenges.”
Reasons for Optimism
Mexico has a new president. Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum, 61, won the presidency in June. When she takes office in October, she will be the country’s first female president, a milestone in the world’s largest Spanish-speaking country. Sheinbaum is a past mayor of Mexico City, the third largest city in the West Hemisphere. Sheinbaum is a scientist by profession. She received her Doctor of Philosophy in energy engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico. As an academic, she has authored over 100 articles and two books on energy, the environment, and sustainable development.
In addition, Guatemala has a new president. Bernardo Arévalo is now president, but disputes continue and with little support in his congress, he will be hard-pressed to deliver the deep changes in Guatemalan government and society that fueled his support and a surprise electoral victory. Arévalo is the 65-year-old son of former Guatemalan President Juan José Arévalo. The elder Arévalo was credited with implementing fundamental protections for workers and land reform for the country’s Indigenous population. Bernardo Arévalo was born in Uruguay, where his father was in exile following the ouster in a 1954 CIA-backed coup of his successor, President Jacobo Árbenz, whom the U.S. saw as a threat during the Cold War.
Finally, Honduras has new leadership. On March 8, 2024 a federal jury convicted former two-term President Juan Orlando Hernández on all three counts in the indictment, which included cocaine-importation and weapons offenses. From at least 2004, as per the U.S. Department of Justice’s report, Hernández was at the center of one of the largest and most violent drug-trafficking conspiracies in the world. “Hernández abused his position as President of Honduras to operate the country as a narco-state where violent drug traffickers were allowed to operate with virtual impunity, and the people of Honduras and the United States were forced to suffer the consequences,” said U.S. Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “As today’s conviction demonstrates, the Justice Department is disrupting the entire ecosystem of drug trafficking networks that harm the American people, no matter how far or how high we must go.”
President Xiomara Castro was elected in 2022 on a platform of cleaning up the country’s politics after her predecessor was extradited to the United States on drug charges. Her administration has delivered some progress on key issues and improved relations with the U.S., which now hopes Honduras can be a key regional partner given deteriorating U.S. relationships with Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua.
Final point
If elected president, Kamala Harris will have a fundamentally new slate of players to work with in Mexico and key Central American countries. Along with Gaza, Ukraine, China, the Western Hemisphere will have to be a priority for her if the huge problems of migration associated with regional violence, corruption, drug trafficking, and gangland murders are to be addressed. Her best bet is to continue the work started with the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection.
For the next U.S. president, the road to progress passes through Caracas, Venezuela. If 40 percent of the population are driven out, the receiving nations will be overrun with migrants, and the U.S.’s resistance to immigration will only grow. Working with other countries in the Western hemisphere, leaders will have to find a way to ease Maduro out and allow the democracy candidate to assume office.
Top image by Tuangtong Soraprasert, available via Shutterstock.