Voters in Iowa House district 7 will elect a successor to Republican State Representative Mike Sexton on Tuesday, December 9. Governor Kim Reynolds announced the special election on September 24, five days after Sexton resigned to become the next leader of Iowa’s Rural Development office in the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That’s the same position former U.S. Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield held during the Biden administration.

Sexton had served in the Iowa House since 2015; he previously served a term in the Iowa Senate, starting in 1999. Most recently he chaired the House Agriculture Committee; House leaders have not yet named his successor in that role. He endorsed Carly Fiorina before the 2016 Iowa caucuses but was an early supporter of Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and attended several Trump rallies in Iowa in 2023.

This race will be the fifth special election for an Iowa legislative district in 2025. But Democrats should not expect another upset win here; House district 7 is among the state’s most solidly Republican districts.

This district covers all of Sac, Calhoun, and Pocahontas counties, plus some areas in Webster County (but not the city of Fort Dodge).

The political terrain strongly favors the GOP. According to the latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, the 11,210 registered Republicans living in House district 7 outnumber Democrats (3,230) and no-party voters (6,719) combined.

According to precinct-level data compiled by Macklin Scheldrup, Donald Trump received 74.6 percent of votes cast for president across House district 7 in 2024, while Kamala Harris received 24.0 percent.

Even a 20-point overperformance comparable to what Democratic candidates have managed in Iowa’s last four special legislative elections wouldn’t be enough to keep this seat close. Indeed, Democrats did not field a candidate against Sexton in the last two election cycles. He was unopposed in the 2022 general election and received more than 80 percent of the vote against an independent candidate last year.

Sexton did have a close shave in the 2024 Republican primary, defeating newcomer Wendy Larson by a 51 percent to 49 percent margin. Larson is seeking the Republican nomination; the special district convention that will select a nominee hasn’t been scheduled yet.

I haven’t heard of any announced Democratic contenders in House district 7. I will update this post as needed. UPDATE: Rachel Burns had previously announced her campaign in the district and will seek the Democratic nomination at a special convention scheduled for October 1.

According to the Ida County Courier, Burns is the Kiron Fire Department EMS service director, as well as a speech pathologist, a licensed Emergency Medical Technician, an Emergency Medical Services instructor, and a nationally-certified firefighter. Her top issues include education and health care.