A pair of recent polls have tried to gauge how the arrest of then Des Moines Superintendent Ian Roberts could affect Iowa’s U.S. Senate race.
One text survey, which was in the field this past week, seeks to determine how much respondents have heard about the incident, who “bears the most responsibility” for the situation, and whether the Roberts controversy gives respondents concerns about Des Moines School Board President Jackie Norris, who is one of the Democrats running for Senate. A different version of the survey tests another negative message about Norris’ past political work and support for “radical DEI policies” on the school board.
Staff for Norris did not respond to inquiries about the survey, but the question wording (enclosed in full below) strongly suggests the Norris campaign commissioned it. Notably, the poll tests U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (the Republican front-runner) against Norris twice, and Hinson against State Representative Josh Turek once, but does not ask respondents about their preference between Hinson and either State Senator Zach Wahls or Iraq War veteran Nathan Sage. It also tests messages about Norris, but not about any other Democratic candidate.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the main campaign arm of U.S. Senate Republicans, commissioned a separate poll of 579 “Democratic primary voters via text-to-web surveys” on September 29 and 30, a few days after Roberts’ arrest. The NRSC has not released full results from that poll, the questionnaire, or the screen used to identify “Democratic primary voters.” Jennie Taer published a few findings in an article on the conservative website The Daily Wire.
Taer wrote that “Norris has 23% popularity, while candidates Zach Wahls has 24.7%, and Josh Turek has 17.6%.” Presumably those numbers came from a question asking which Senate candidate respondents would support in the 2026 primary, as opposed to a question measuring favorable views about each contender. (Political reporters should be more precise when covering an opinion survey, especially when the polling memo is not publicly available.)
Both the Wahls and Norris campaigns appear to have interpreted the NRSC poll as a ballot test for the primary. An October 12 fundraising email from the Wahls campaign asserted, “a new poll shows Zach with a two-point lead in Iowa’s Senate race!” Meanwhile, an October 8 fundraising email from the Norris campaign claimed, “A new poll shows Jackie locked in a DEAD HEAT in the Iowa Senate primary.” Neither campaign responded to inquiries seeking to confirm that their emails were referencing the Republican poll.
According to Taer’s account for The Daily Wire, 74 percent of respondents “supported Norris’ recent call for ‘radical empathy’ following Roberts’ arrest,” 30 percent “believe it’s permissible to harass elected officials and public figures with whom they disagree,” and 57 percent “support abolishing ICE altogether.” Without knowing the question wording or other details about the sample, it’s hard to interpret those results.
I’ll update this post if I receive further information about the Republican poll.
Questionnaire from a text survey that appears to be from the Jackie Norris campaign:
1. Are you: (female or male)
2. In what year were you born?
3. In what ZIP code do you currently live?
4. What is the highest level of education you have completed? (High school diploma or less, Some college but no degree, Associate’s degree, or two-year college degree, Four-year college degree, Graduate degree)
5. What is your race? Select all that apply (White/Caucasian, Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino/a, Asian/Pacific Islander, Native American or Alaska Native, Other)
6. Are you registered to vote in Iowa? (yes or no)
7. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a: (Democrat, Republican, Independent/other)
Note: screenshots shared by readers included two versions of question 8, which presumably depended on how the person answered question 7.
8. Do you consider yourself closer to: (The Democrats, The Republicans, Neither)
Alternate version:
8. Do you consider yourself a: (Strong Democrat, Not so strong Democrat)
9. What are the chances you will vote in the November 2026 midterm elections for Governor, US Senate, and other offices in Iowa? (Yes, definitely; Yes, probably; Maybe (50-50); No, probably not; No, definitely not)
10. In June 2026, there will be primary elections for Governor, US Senate, and other offices in Iowa. Thinking about the 2026 primary election, would you: (Wait until the General Election in November to vote, Vote in the Democratic primary, Vote in the Republican primary, Vote in another party’s primary, Not sure/won’t vote at all)
11. How did you vote in the 2024 election for President, or for some reason were you unable to vote? (Donald Trump, the Republican; Kamala Harris, the Democrat; Robert Kennedy, the Wee The People Party; Chase Oliver, the Libertarian; Not required/Too young/ineligible; Did not vote)
12. How did you vote in the 2022 midterm election for US Senate, or for some reason were you unable to vote? (Chuck Grassley, the Republican; Mike Franken, the Democrat; Not registered/Too young/ineligible; Did not vote)
13. How favorable are your feelings about each of the following people and groups? (options for all were Very favorable, Somewhat favorable, Neutral, Somewhat unfavorable, Very unfavorable, or Never heard of them)
- ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) officers
- Jackie Norris
- Dr. Ian Roberts
- Donald Trump
- Joni Ernst
- Zach Wahls
- Nathan Sage
- Rob Sand
- Josh Turek
- Ashley Hinson
14. If the November 2026 election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for? (Rob Sand, the Democrat; Randy Feenstra, the Republican; Not sure)
15. If the November 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for? (Ashley Hinson, the Republican; Jackie Norris, the Democrat; Not sure)
16. If you had to choose, who would you vote for? (Ashley Hinson, the Republican; Jackie Norris, the Democrat; Not sure; Would not vote)
17. If the November 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for? (Ashley Hinson, the Republican; Josh Turek, the Democrat; Not sure)
18. If you had to choose, who would you vote for? (Josh Turek, the Democrat; Ashley Hinson, the Republican; Not sure; Would not vote)
19. On September 26th, ICE arrested the superintendent of Des Moines Public Schools, Ian Roberts, on accusations that he was living in the U.S. illegally and was in illegal possession of a firearm. How much, if anything, have you seen in the news about this story? (A lot, Some, Not too much, Nothing at all)
20. Based on what you know, who bears the most responsibility for this situation? (Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE); Iowa’s Department of Education; Des Moines Public School Board; Ian Roberts; Not sure)
21. Democrats say that Ashley Hinson has the wrong priorities for Iowa. Hinson supports crushing tariffs that act like another tax on Iowans, pushing the rising cost of living even higher. And she voted this year to slash critical health care funding, driving up your insurance premiums, all to pay for tax cuts for billionaires and corporations.
How serious are your concerns about Ashley Hinson after this? (Very serious concerns, Somewhat serious concerns, Only minor concerns, No concerns at all)
22. Republicans say that as Chair of the Des Moines School Board, Jackie Norris is directly responsible for hiring criminal illegal alien Ian Roberts to run the city’s schools. After Roberts was arrested and found with a loaded gun in his school district-owned car, Norris defended him, asking for the public to show “radical empathy.” Norris does not have the judgment to be our Senator.
How serious are your concerns about Jackie Norris after this? (Very serious concerns, Somewhat serious concerns, Only minor concerns, No concerns at all)
Editor’s note: A different version of the poll asked the following question:
Republicans say that Jackie Norris is a woke liberal Democratic insider and political operative who was one of Joe Biden’s closest advisors. While Chief of Staff to Michelle Obama, she helped push an extreme liberal agenda in Washington. Now, on the Des Moines School Board, Norris supports radical DEl policies and would allow transgender students to use girls’ bathrooms.
How serious are your concerns about Jackie Norris after this?
23. Once again, if the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (Ashley Hinson, the Republican; Jackie Norris, the Democrat; Not sure)
24. If you had to choose, who would you vote for? (Jackie Norris, the Democrat; Ashley Hinson, the Republican; Not sure; Would not vote)
25. For statistical purposes, please share the following. (First name, Last name, Email address, Phone number)
Your responses are anonymous and confidential. We use this information along with other public information sources to perform statistical and demographic analysis to better understand population opinions and interests.
Thank you for your participation.