Ralph Rosenberg served in the Iowa legislature from 1981 through 1994 and was director of the Iowa Civil Rights Commission from 2003 through 2010. A version of this essay first appeared on Substack.
The political landscape is full of what many Democrats view as signs of hope: a Democrat won Miami’s mayoral race, Indiana’s state Senate rejected mid-cycle gerrymandering, and in Tennessee’s seventh District, a Trump +22 cushion collapsed into single digits—what observers called a “stress fracture on a main beam.”
Add to that viral clips of an exhausted-looking president, negative polling numbers, and systemic problems at agencies like the FBI, and you can see why people opposed to Donald Trump and his policies are feeling optimistic.
But don’t get too confident about long-term impact. Beneath these celebratory headlines lies a dangerous form of “strategic negligence.”
SETBACKS DON’T AFFECT MAGA LIKE YOU’D EXPECT
Here’s the problem: traditional political vulnerabilities don’t land the way you’d expect with MAGA.
Hollywood criticism and mainstream outrage get instantly reframed as proof the elite establishment is against “The People”—it’s a feature, not a bug. Reports of Trump appearing tired or unwell get explained away by his media ecosystem (he’s a fighter, he’s working hard), and the base believes their narrative over what they’re seeing.
FBI failures and institutional problems aren’t viewed as threats—they validate the “deep state” narrative and justify the reform agenda outlined in documents like Project 2025. And negative polling? After recent cycles showed polls underestimating populist support, the base just dismisses bad numbers as “Fake News.”
As long as the ground game is running and the media ecosystem keeps reinforcing itself, these setbacks don’t translate into lasting damage.
A DANGEROUS DELUSION
Too many Democrats are operating under a familiar delusion: the hope that Trump will eventually self-destruct and, in doing so, bring down the entire MAGA machine. This giddiness bears a striking resemblance to the atmosphere following Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, when the focus was on running against Trump rather than building a durable, lasting coalition. The result was a temporary victory that lacked the foundational strength to resist MAGA’s continued momentum..
The reality is that the MAGA movement no longer relies solely on one man’s personality. It is sustained by three resilient pillars that operate independently of day-to-day political drama:
Policy and personnel institutionalization: Think tanks like the Heritage Foundation and the Claremont Institute have formalized the movement’s goals (such as Project 2025), creating a “deep bench” of operatives ready to govern regardless of the leader’s personal standing.
A coordinated media ecosystem: This network—Fox News, Tucker Carlson, Turning Point, Nick Fuentes, Ben Shapiro, and others—serves as an ideological firewall, turning mainstream outrage and celebrity condemnation into the “oxygen” that validates their base’s grievances.
Grassroots and local capture: While national headlines focus on Washington, activist networks are still fighting battles in school boards and election administration offices across the country, building power from the bottom up.
REPUBLICANS ARE POURING CONCRETE WHILE DEMOCRATS TOAST
While Democrats celebrate wins like the Miami mayoral race, or “moral victories” like the over-performance in the Tennessee special election, there’s a naive assumption that Republicans will simply stand still and watch their foundation crack until the November 2026 midterms or the 2028 general election.
On the contrary, the GOP is actively pouring concrete to reinforce their structure. This reinforcement takes the form of “radical incrementalism” in voting laws—shortening absentee windows, banning drop-boxes, and tightening registration requirements—alongside sophisticated ground-game upgrades that are reportedly far ahead of where they were four years ago. They are engineering their survival while Democrats wait for a collapse that may never come.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The “stress fractures” are real, and the leader’s image may be wearing thin. But these cracks can be filled and strengthened if the opposition has enough time and resources—and Republicans have both.
If Democrats continue to ignore the reinforced steel structure being built around these fractures, and if they continue to prioritize sensational distractions over addressing real-time policy harms, they risk celebrating these small cracks all the way to another devastating loss for the country.
Success requires more than just waiting for an opponent to fail; it requires a proactive strategy that anticipates an opponent who is actively learning from their mistakes.