Dan Guild

Joe Biden will probably lose Iowa

Jun 09, 2019

Booker in particular

is an interesting case. In NH his chair was Obama’s 2008 chair. People I talk to who have seen him come away very impressed. Beto’s numbers on the top line have collapsed both nationally and in the early states, but people still remain interested in his candidacy.

“It’s still early” — or is it?

Feb 25, 2019

Good article

Not everyone who has announced will make it to Caucus night. Some examples:

former Governor John Connelly trailed Ronald Reagan by 45-29 in February of 1979. He would finish below 10.

Mario Cuomo ran second in early 1983 before deciding not to run.

Elizabeth Dole ran second in 1999 before not running.

Herman Cain led in 2012 and then withdrew.

Scott Walker led in Iowa in 2015 and withdrew.

But perhaps the most famous flameout of All was Gary Hart in 1987. In February of 1987 Gary Hart led Iowa 59-14: the largest lead anyone has ever had in Iowa. He withdrew only to later re-enter the race in early January of 1988 and take a 20 point lead.

He wound up with 1 percent a scant 6 weeks later.

First thoughts on new Iowa Democratic caucus rules

Feb 12, 2019

The virtual caucus

may turn this into a primary because the raw vote is now being recorded. Caucuses are time-consuming events, and campaigns may struggle to get people to attend in person when an easier option is available.

Marry this to the reporting of the raw vote, and you may find well over 10% of Iowans chose the virtual caucus, which in turn may very well mean the raw vote becomes more important in interpreting the results than the county delegates.

If I am right this is a revolution for the Iowa Caucuses.

Enter Bleeding Heartland’s 2018 general election prediction contest

Nov 03, 2018

I will only do the House races and the Senate

1.3071,101
45% Hubbell, 50% Reynolds, 4% Porter, 1% Siegwarth
3. 53% Finkenauer 45% Blum 2% Hageman
4. 55% Loebsack 44% Peters 3% Strauss 2% Clark
5. 48% Axne 47% Young 2% Holder 3% others
6. 52% King 47% Scholten 1% Aldrich 1% Peterson
16, Missouri Senate
17. 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans
18. 51 GOP, 49 Democrats

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