Dan Guild

Joe Biden will probably lose Iowa

Jun 09, 2019

Booker in particular

is an interesting case. In NH his chair was Obama’s 2008 chair. People I talk to who have seen him come away very impressed. Beto’s numbers on the top line have collapsed both nationally and in the early states, but people still remain interested in his candidacy.

Joe Biden will probably lose Iowa

Jun 09, 2019

I will add the number

of candidates to this analysis in a later post.

I would note that the comparison of 2016 to 2020 is illuminating in another respect. Clinton was able to largely clear the field of obvious contenders.

Biden simply did not scare potential candidates in the way Clinton did.

“It’s still early” — or is it?

Feb 25, 2019

Good article

Not everyone who has announced will make it to Caucus night. Some examples:

former Governor John Connelly trailed Ronald Reagan by 45-29 in February of 1979. He would finish below 10.

Mario Cuomo ran second in early 1983 before deciding not to run.

Elizabeth Dole ran second in 1999 before not running.

Herman Cain led in 2012 and then withdrew.

Scott Walker led in Iowa in 2015 and withdrew.

But perhaps the most famous flameout of All was Gary Hart in 1987. In February of 1987 Gary Hart led Iowa 59-14: the largest lead anyone has ever had in Iowa. He withdrew only to later re-enter the race in early January of 1988 and take a 20 point lead.

He wound up with 1 percent a scant 6 weeks later.

First thoughts on new Iowa Democratic caucus rules

Feb 12, 2019

The virtual caucus

may turn this into a primary because the raw vote is now being recorded. Caucuses are time-consuming events, and campaigns may struggle to get people to attend in person when an easier option is available.

Marry this to the reporting of the raw vote, and you may find well over 10% of Iowans chose the virtual caucus, which in turn may very well mean the raw vote becomes more important in interpreting the results than the county delegates.

If I am right this is a revolution for the Iowa Caucuses.

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