Dan Guild

“It’s still early” — or is it?

Feb 25, 2019

Good article

Not everyone who has announced will make it to Caucus night. Some examples:

former Governor John Connelly trailed Ronald Reagan by 45-29 in February of 1979. He would finish below 10.

Mario Cuomo ran second in early 1983 before deciding not to run.

Elizabeth Dole ran second in 1999 before not running.

Herman Cain led in 2012 and then withdrew.

Scott Walker led in Iowa in 2015 and withdrew.

But perhaps the most famous flameout of All was Gary Hart in 1987. In February of 1987 Gary Hart led Iowa 59-14: the largest lead anyone has ever had in Iowa. He withdrew only to later re-enter the race in early January of 1988 and take a 20 point lead.

He wound up with 1 percent a scant 6 weeks later.

First thoughts on new Iowa Democratic caucus rules

Feb 12, 2019

The virtual caucus

may turn this into a primary because the raw vote is now being recorded. Caucuses are time-consuming events, and campaigns may struggle to get people to attend in person when an easier option is available.

Marry this to the reporting of the raw vote, and you may find well over 10% of Iowans chose the virtual caucus, which in turn may very well mean the raw vote becomes more important in interpreting the results than the county delegates.

If I am right this is a revolution for the Iowa Caucuses.

Enter Bleeding Heartland’s 2018 general election prediction contest

Nov 03, 2018

I will only do the House races and the Senate

45% Hubbell, 50% Reynolds, 4% Porter, 1% Siegwarth
3. 53% Finkenauer 45% Blum 2% Hageman
4. 55% Loebsack 44% Peters 3% Strauss 2% Clark
5. 48% Axne 47% Young 2% Holder 3% others
6. 52% King 47% Scholten 1% Aldrich 1% Peterson
16, Missouri Senate
17. 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans
18. 51 GOP, 49 Democrats

IA-01: Will Republicans give up on Rod Blum? Should they?

Aug 09, 2018

If the GOP has conceded this seat

than honestly the size of the wave may be seriously underestimated.

In my model Blum is the 17th weakest Republican. HIs 2016 margin was unimpressive, though he did run 5 points ahead of Trump. Much of the discussion has centered around college education women at the national level, but this district is below the national average in the % with college degrees.

If the internal polling shows this seat is gone then it means:
-The 2016 midwestern shift from 2012 may be reversed
-We should begin to think about a Democratic gain over 50+ seats.

I wouldn’t change the seat from tossup.

But this is a very big deal.

Comparing Bernie Sanders’ “America” to Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America”

Jan 01, 2017

In another place

I compared that ad to this one: the only ad to my knowledge that was shown in significant numbers in Michigan:


There are obvious similarities between this ad and the Sanders ad.

The campaigns were in completely different places at the time. This is actually one of the few positive ads I saw from Clinton. Virtually all of her advertising was negative.

The Sanders ad was meant to tall a story. From individuals coming together to form a movement. So the family, the farmer, the small businessmen to the small crowd to the large crowd. It was mean to convey how one voice coming together could change the world. It was brilliant.

It ends not with Bernie, but with pictures of supporters.

By the time it aired everyone knew in Iowa what Sanders was for.

I don’t think people ever had the same sense with Clinton. Her policy positions were not featured in her advertising – and if you went back and looked at Bills advertising in ’92 the contrast would be remarkable.

The Clinton ad was similar in ways – capturing the different reasons why people were voting for her. But – and I admit I am a Sanders guy – I don’t think it fit where her campaign was at the time.

The ads in an odd way come from the opposite place. The Clinton ad has the word “I” all through it. I am voting for this cause or that cause. My vote is about me expressing something personal. The Sanders story is of the individual becoming part of a collective experience.

The difference is striking.

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