Dan Guild

Five encouraging signs from Iowa’s early vote numbers

Oct 21, 2020


A couple of points:
1. I have watched the 2016 and 2018 Florida EV and wrote about it at the time. In both years the early voting date was quite revealing. This means something.
2. Target smart missed VERY badly in 2016 with this sort of analysis in Florida.
3. I would watch the youth vote. Siena today found Biden up 59-36 and this is quite a shift from 2016 when the youth margin collapsed in Iowa. In many way youth turnout is the most variable, and to the extent, youth turnout under 30 looks good it is a good sign.

More to say later….

40 years without my mother

Jun 27, 2020

I am very close

to someone who lost their mother at age 4 and whose father, a political consultant, became an alcoholic. They are brilliant – and the stories about them as a lawyer are amazing (including walking out of each session the bar exam over an hour early and long before anyone else).

It defined this person for decades. They were driven to perfection since they did not believe they could ever rely on anyone or anything. They were forever remembering the mother they did not have, and the father who forget to pick them up. It created disaster after disaster in their personal life. They simply could not let people in – and around their 35th birthday, it all came crashing down. This person is very different now then when I first met them – astonishingly they no longer even practice law.

The loss of this person’s mother defined them and the choices they made for most of their life. It took serious therapy for this person to realize the extent to which their sub-conscience ruled their choices. This person told me once about a year after they had started therapy that they didn’t think they had ever really made a conscious choice.

As I said – it is hard to believe they are the same person that they were.

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