MrScarletW

An early look at the 2010 Iowa Senate races

May 27, 2009

2010 Senate races

I think any hard working democrat in the Indianola area can knock off Sorenson. It may take a lot of money/volunteers but it certainly can be done. The key here is getting Simpson College motivated. 10 to 20 students that are hard core dedicated will help get the job done!

It was like watching a train wreck happen there in 2008. It was all Obama all the time. Democratic leaders knew Davitt was in trouble and did nothing.

Mr. Sorenson can be knocked off but I’d like to see him knocked off in a house race rather than have Appel slug it out with him.

Also, I’m interested to hear about the 2010 State Rep. races!

waits in anticipation

An early look at the 2010 Iowa Senate races

May 28, 2009

Davitt troubles...

Well they didn’t have tracking polls, however, even “democratic students” were on board with Sorenson. Why? Because it looked like he was going to win. He was everywhere, so it seemed. Davitt was mostly MIA until the last week of the campaign and was running around frantically asking for “additional” help. Working at the “campaign for change HQ,” Davitt had no one working for him – there was NO sense of urgency or threat until it was too late. Phone-banking and canvasing paled in comparison to that of Sorenson. Other than that it was the summer parades for Davitt’s supporters. Sure Davitt knocked a lot of doors by himself but he was clearly out worked &  overwhelmed and it showed. There was some fuss about party money not coming his way that explained his lazy start. Big wig democrats thought he was going to sail to victory until the last few weeks of the campaign. Democrats started to panic when they noticed Sorenson had an army of folks working for him, and their McCain stuff was secondary, and his support was nearly everywhere in Indianola. Campus was downplayed to avoid agitating liberal democratic students.

Democratic student leaders scrambled (Last 2 weeks) to help, but by that point it was already too late. And we ALL new it. Davitt had ZERO input/plan with early voting (that was the big push on campus and most voted then). He lost it right there. Yes it was close, but it did not have to be that way. There is a complete disconnect between Big Wig leaders in Warren county and the college democrats and it needs to be overhauled ASAP. Appel’s campaign started early and often pressing students to activate in any way possible. It worked (I think the Emily’s List guy helped a ton in the early days to set the tone).

Turing out the student vote shouldn’t be THAT hard, its just WHO you turn out that should matter at Simpson. Staci Appel’s win was in an “off” year and she had a large following at the College helping with everything, it was the most engaged/coordinated student project in years. Turing out the smart educated voter while other voters on campus stay home should could benefit a hardworking/financially stable democrat with a plan & wants to win. If a new and improved Davitt 2.0 shows up it could be a different story. The primary concern would be Culver’s unpopularity that should worry all down ballot democrats.

Also, great to hear about the House Democrats post that is coming soon. I look forward to reading all your articles!

Some Iowa House Democrats will get primary challengers

Jun 13, 2009

Mertz

Thank you for this post!   I’ll speak to the Mertz race in particular. There is a serious growing trend that either Rep. Mertz will retire or be nudged out by a serious Democratic contender.  Either way many do NOT think Mertz will be the democratic nomination for Iowa House 8 in 2010. Many high level democrats, though located in what you described as a “very conservative” district, are very displeased with her performance. Expect a serious primary challenge here against Mertz!  Long time party activists very well expect one and they are preparing for such an event. A real Democrat can win in District 8 via a number of ways with the right tools and support. The consensus is, from locals, that it will be best if Democrats go down fighting in November rather than let Mertz limp into another poor reelection campaign against a formable GOP opponent. I assure you, It would not be a long shot by any means! This is especially true if the Republicans nominate an ultra-conservative or have an ultra-conservative Independent candidate split their vote totals. At least one Independent has already emerged and is Extreme-Right Wing.  If Democratic leadership and activists unite in energy behind a primary challenger to Mertz, come November, the Republican nominee may be in for a long & bitter fall campaign.

Some Iowa House Democrats will get primary challengers

Jun 13, 2009

Iowa House 8 Update:

As per the Pocahontas Record Democrat (local newspaper), Tom Shaw (Independent – Laurnes in Pocahontas County) has announced his candidacy for House District 8 against Rep. Mertz. He will rely on his service in the United States Navy & his tenure as Chief of Police.  His website is a must see: www.electshaw2010.com.  

He is quoted as saying,

“I see that the Republican Party wishes to abandon their conservative social positions in order to expand the party and based on the last legislative session, the Democrat Party is determined to be influenced by liberal out-of-state organizations rather than represent the values that rural Iowans hold dear – Tom Shaw (Independent -Laurnes),”

The Record Democrat reported this quote in this weeks newspaper… YIKES. After discussing with some contacts in the area, the Republican county leadership may support a Independent candidate if the Republican field is too moderate for their liking. In Pocahontas county, party registration is near even (Republicans lead by a small margin) and the county is made up of mostly Non-Party folks but there is a smattering of extremes on both sides. Clearly the far right will be represented come next fall.

Is anyone hearing any chatter about other possible candidates? What is your take on this? Will the GOP take him up? Will he be a serious threat?

Who will step up to challenge Latham and King?

Jun 15, 2009

4th District organizing...

The fourth district democrats have formed a task force to function as a platform for a candidate that gets the nomination to jump off. This task force is working on building a functioning data base complete with donors, activist, county contacts, volunteer, calendar events, and other infrastructure needs. Tom Harrington (sp?), Sheldon Spencer, & Kurt Meyer are leading these efforts from my observations.

Having said that, Sheldon Spencer is seriously considering a  run but is being severely discouraged by top state democratic leaders (I think we know why, right?). Kurt Meyer apparently REALLY wants it, he ran in the primary last time, too. Reaction to his enthusiasm has been rather cool… to say the least.  Thats all I know about the 4th thus far.

Who will step up to challenge Latham and King?

Jun 15, 2009

Elected officials...

such as Sen. Olive would be a good idea! I’d support this more than a random figure or past candidate. The plus, they have a platform and votes to run on. The minus, they would have a whole host of votes that could be drawn on for good ol Tom to trash and smear with his endless amounts of cash. Regardless of who runs, it’ll be an  up hill battle. 🙁  

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