Enter Bleeding Heartland’s 2018 Iowa primary election prediction contest

Jun 01, 2018

Nate's Numbers

It isn’t just the early voters, though. You’ll have some fairly low information voters that don’t realize he has actually dropped out (seriously. if you’ve been doing any canvassing or calling, you know this is possible.) And you’ll have some hardcores who think he shouldn’t have dropped who vote for him anyway as a form of protest. Between the three, it will add up a bit. I may have him too high at 11, but he’ll do better than low single digits.

Enter Bleeding Heartland’s 2018 Iowa primary election prediction contest

Jun 01, 2018


1. Since it doesn’t appear to be Price is Right rules (“… without going over”), I’ll be optimistic and say 158,000.

2. The tough part is knowing how many Nate votes were baked in. Here we go:

Hubbell — 34; Norris – 23; Glasson – 20; Boulton – 11; McGuire – 8; Wilburn – 4 (Norris wins at convention)

3. CD-1: Finkenauer – 48; Heckroth – 38; Ramsey – 10; Rowe – 4

4. CD-2: Peters — 90; Caliguri – 10

5. CD-3: Axne – 39; Mauro – 35; D’Alessandro – 26

6. CD-4: Scholten — 45; Jacobsen – 33; Paschen – 22 (predicting Leann losing hurts.)

7. SoS: DeJear — 58; Mowrer — 42

8. Lang — 28; Naig wins at convention.

9. Malloy – 57; Stewart – 43

10. McCoy – 51; Mauro – 49

The case for each Democrat running for Congress in IA-03

May 19, 2018


I don’t know that endorsements count for a lot, but what I do find impressive about Axne’s (lengthy) list is how it spans the various wings of the party. There are people on that list from a pretty anti-establishment populist left, and there are people on that list who are definitely pretty moderate, and a whole lot of points in between, including people with very different primary interests — economics, environment, education, rights of women, or persons of color, of LGBTQ, and of persons with disabilities, and health care. brad-wilson above asked about farm policy; to that end I think it compelling that Austin Frerick endorsed Axne as well, although likely even more important that she has done a lot of face-to-face meet and greets in the rural parts of the district.

John Norris for governor

Mar 24, 2018

Good call

I’ve known John for decades, worked with him, went to law school with him. He is an antidote to much of what is wrong with our current politics: he is thoughtful, exceedingly well versed on issues, and knows the job in a way that makes him the best situated to convert the policy positions most of our candidates share into actual accomplishments in office. We’d be very fortunate to have him leading the state.

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