All signs point to Representative Bruce Braley running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2014, so I thought I’d put up a new thread to discuss scenarios in the first Congressional district.

Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy plans to run in the Democratic primary for IA-01. I don’t think he’s as strong a candidate as either Senate President Pam Jochum or State Senator Liz Mathis would be, and it is long past time for Democrats to nominate a woman in an open seat that leans Democratic. The latest numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show that IA-01 contains 167,987 active registered Democrats, 140,227 Republicans, and 196,078 no-party voters.

On the Republican side, I am seeking comment about a possible Congressional bid from both Ben Lange and Rod Blum. Both ran against Braley in 2012; Blum narrowly lost the primary. Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix ran for IA-01 when it was last an open seat in 2006, but he has ruled out running for Congress next year as he tries to take back the Senate majority for the GOP. CORRECTION: Dix lives in Butler County, which used to be in IA-01 but is now in IA-04 under Iowa’s new map.

Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread. A race between Blum and either Jochum or Murphy would be an all-Dubuque affair.

As Iowa legislators consider what to do with the state’s nearly $1 billion budget surplus, Republicans are advocating a $750 income tax credit for “every average Iowa family.” But that credit would do nothing for lower-income Iowans who have the largest state and local tax burden. The latest report by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy shows yet again that in Iowa and across the country, the bottom 20 percent of households by income pay the largest percentage of their income in state and local taxes (mostly property, sales and excise taxes).

The full report is available on the institute’s website. For the Iowa data, click here or here. Some charts, facts and figures on Iowa’s regressive tax system are after the jump. In my opinion, the bulk of Iowa’s surplus should go toward restoring and improving state services that have been underfunded for many years. The most valuable tax policy change would be increasing the earned income tax credit that benefits working families. Cutting personal income taxes should be way down the priority list, especially since high-income Iowans can already use a wide range of deductions to lower their income tax bill.

After a dismal performance by his political vehicles in 2012, the man once known as “Bush’s brain” is working to stop unelectable Republican candidates from winning GOP primaries in 2014. Jeff Zeleny reports in today’s New York Times that Karl Rove’s super-PAC American Crossroads is creating the “Conservative Victory Project.” One of Rove’s associates confirmed that stopping Representative Steve King from becoming the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa will be a priority.

Details and toplines from the first poll on the open IA-Sen race are below.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. To get a conversation started, I posted a bunch of links about campaign finance after the jump, focusing on news related to Iowa’s 2014 contests for U.S. senator and governor.

At the end I included an old but “new to me” story about Ron Paul’s habit of double-billing travel expenses. What will his admirers in the Liberty movement say?

President Barack Obama yesterday nominated Jane Kelly to the U.S. Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. The federal public defender in the Northern District of Iowa was one of two women Senator Tom Harkin recommended for the judgeship.

After the jump I’ve posted a statement from Harkin welcoming Kelly’s nomination. It includes biographical information and notes, “If confirmed, Ms. Kelly would be only the second female judge in the history of the Eighth Circuit, which was established in 1891.” I would add that it’s unusual and encouraging to see a highly-qualified public defender nominated to become a U.S. Appeals Court judge.

I have not yet seen any statement from Senator Chuck Grassley on Kelly’s nomination. As the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Grassley has a lot of influence over how and whether judicial nominations are considered. I’ve also posted below a joint press release from several Iowa progressive groups urging Grassley to work to confirm Kelly quickly.

Yesterday the U.S. Senate approved by 64 votes to 34 a bill that would suspend the country’s debt ceiling until mid-May and withhold the salaries of senators unless the Senate approves a budget by April 15. Iowa’s Senator Tom Harkin supported the bill, as did all but one Democrat. Senator Chuck Grassley opposed the bill, like most other Senate Republicans. Details on the bill and on the amendments considered yesterday are after the jump.

The House approved this bill last week, with three of Iowa’s four representatives voting yes.

State Senator Mark Chelgren celebrated his 45th birthday last week with cupcakes for fellow senators and a promise that he will try to change an obscure part of the Iowa Constitution.

Legislators often introduce bills solely to make a political statement, but even in that context, Chelgren’s effort is an impressive feat of irrelevant grandstanding.  

Traditionally, Democrats and Republicans in the Iowa legislature have argued over the amount of state education funding. Now it’s a battle just to set an allowable growth level for K-12 school districts. Last year’s legislature failed to meet a deadline for approving allowable growth for fiscal year 2014, covering the 2013/2014 academic year. As a result, school districts have no idea how much they will be able to increase their budgets for the fiscal year beginning on July 1, or whether they will be able to increase their budgets at all.

Yesterday the Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate voted along party lines to set allowable growth at 4 percent for the coming fiscal year. Governor Terry Branstad and statehouse Republicans want to put off any decision on allowable growth until the legislature passes another education reform bill. After the jump I’ve posted background and more details about this issue.

What’s on your mind, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. After the jump I’ve posted a new editorial from The FAMiLY Leader’s Bob Vander Plaats. As you can imagine, he’s upset about “Republican elites” pushing for acceptance of LGBT civil marriage rights.

Vander Plaats has made a pretty good living off the culture wars, but he hasn’t done as well as National Organization for Marriage President Brian Brown. The pro-LGBT equality group Rights Equal Rights issued a press release today highlighting details from NOM’s 2011 tax return (pdf). Notably, Brian Brown made over $500,000 dollars: $230,000 for working full-time at NOM’s political operation, and $230,000 from NOM’s Educational Fund “where he claimed to work another 40 hours per week,” plus $47,000 in benefits.

Speaking of the “traditional marriage” crowd, Mark Doland has a slim edge over former State Senator Tom Rielly in Tuesday’s special election for Mahaska County supervisor. Rielly posted on Facebook that as of Tuesday night, Doland led by 1391 votes to 1375. Some provisional ballots and late-arriving absentees had not yet been counted.

Doland used to be a staffer for the Iowa Family Policy Center and worked closely with Vander Plaats during the 2010 campaign to oust Iowa Supreme Court justices. He now serves on the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee. Rielly, a Democrat, was mayor of Oskaloosa before serving two terms in the Iowa Senate. He retired last year after Iowa’s new map removed Grinnell from his district and added heavily Republican areas such as Pella. Republican Ken Rozenboom was elected in the new Senate district 40, forcing the special election for his Mahaska County supervisor seat.

Interestingly, Rozenboom endorsed Rielly for county supervisor, even though his fellow Republican Doland had stood aside for him in Iowa Senate district 40. UPDATE: Rielly conceded defeat by 21 votes on February 4. Republicans won’t soon forget that Rozenboom preferred a Democrat for this supervisor’s seat.

Representative Bruce Braley braved some pretty bad winter weather this morning to meet with Iowa House and Senate Democrats at the state capitol. I haven’t seen any details about his remarks, which were closed to the public and media. No doubt he is trying to gain early backing for a U.S. Senate candidacy. State Senator Steve Sodders posted on Facebook and twitter today, “Great morning speech today by Congressman Braley…I’m a supporter.” Sodders represents Iowa Senate district 36, which is part of the first Congressional district where Braley just won a fourth term in the U.S. House.

I’ll update this post later if any news leaks about the substance of Braley’s meetings today. My money’s on no serious Democratic primary opposition once he launches his Senate run. He told reporters that U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Chair Michael Bennett have encouraged him to run for the seat Senator Tom Harkin is vacating.

Iowa Economic Development Authority Director Debi Durham went to the statehouse yesterday to advocate for more tax credits to use as business incentives during the next fiscal year. She inadvertently revealed that in the negotiating department, she could benefit from wisdom that President Ronald Reagan borrowed from a Russian proverb.

Time for another thread on President Barack Obama’s latest appointments and cabinet vacancies. The U.S. Senate confirmed John Kerry as secretary of State today by 94 votes to 3, with Kerry himself voting “present.” Iowans Tom Harkin and Chuck Grassley both voted for the confirmation. Senate Republicans are salivating over the chance to bring Scott Brown back to Washington. Early polling in Massachusetts shows Brown leading likely Democratic nominee Ed Markey for a special election to replace Kerry.

I was sad to read that Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood will leave the administration after all. He has been one of the best in Obama’s cabinet. Ken Thomas of the Associated Press mentioned several possible replacements for LaHood: Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, National Transportation Safety Board Chair Debbie Hersman, and former House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Jim Oberstar. If we could re-do 2009, I’d wish for the House to pass a comprehensive transportation bill instead of working on the climate change bill that died in the Senate.

Last Friday, Obama announced that Denis McDonough will be his new chief of staff. After the jump I’ve posted a few other White House staff changes.

No word yet on who will replace Hilda Solis as Labor secretary, Lisa Jackson as EPA administrator, or Ken Salazar at Interior.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.  

About an hour ago, President Barack Obama finished speaking to a Nevada audience about basic principles for comprehensive immigration reform. Yesterday four Democratic and four Republican U.S. senators unveiled a framework for a new immigration reform bill. Links and details about those proposals are after the jump, along with recent comments about immigration by some of the Iowans in Congress. I will update this post as needed with further reaction.

Very few prominent Iowa Republicans have endorsed same-sex marriage rights since the Iowa Supreme Court’s 2009 decision striking down the state’s Defense of Marriage Act. Every Republican now serving in the Iowa House and Senate is on record supporting a constitutional amendment to reverse that court ruling. When former State Senator Jeff Angelo created the Iowans for Freedom movement in 2011 to support marriage equality as consistent with conservative values, only a handful of Republicans signed on. One of them, Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson, was later warned against seeking the GOP nomination for the special election in Senate district 18, in part because of his position on marriage.

Last night some heavy-hitter Republican strategists and activists met in Des Moines to urge the Iowa GOP to change its stance on marriage equality.

The U.S. Senate today approved a bill allocating $50.7 billion for Hurricane Sandy relief by 62 votes to 36 (roll call). Republicans including Iowa’s Senator Chuck Grassley cast all of the no votes. Senator Tom Harkin joined the rest of the Democratic caucus and nine GOP senators to pass the bill. Grassley and Harkin split the same way when the Senate considered an earlier version of Sandy relief in late December.

Before today’s vote on final passage, senators rejected a Republican amendment that would have offset the $50.7 billion expenditure “by decreasing federal discretionary spending by 0.49 percent for nine years.” Grassley supported that amendment, while Harkin voted against it.

The Sandy relief bill now goes to President Barack Obama’s desk.  Iowa’s four representatives split along party lines (Democrats for, Republicans against) when it cleared the U.S. House. Obama already signed the first stage of Sandy relief, which increased the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s borrowing authority by $9.7 billion. All four Iowans voted for that bill in the U.S. House; it later passed the Senate on a voice vote.

Iowa politics watchers continue to chew over the possibilities for the open U.S. Senate race next year. To no one’s surprise, Governor Terry Branstad ruled out a Senate bid this morning, saying he’s never been interested in leaving Iowa to serve for six years in Washington, DC. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds told journalists that she is focused on the Branstad administration’s agenda for Iowa but keeping her “options open” on the Senate race. Many other Republicans are thinking about it too, and only Representative Tom Latham has the potential to clear the field.

On the Democratic side, speculation continues to center around Representative Bruce Braley, who confirmed yesterday that he is considering running for Tom Harkin’s seat. If Braley takes on the Senate race, many Democrats expect State Senator Liz Mathis to run in the first Congressional district. She is well-known among Iowans in the Cedar Rapids television market, thanks to her previous career in news broadcasting. Senate President Pam Jochum of Dubuque said today that the IA-01 race is “something to think about.” Jochum indicated that to run and serve in Congress, she would need support for her developmentally disabled adult daughter, who lives with her.

Any comments related to the reshuffle in Iowa politics are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Also no surprise: Democratic State Senator Matt McCoy of Des Moines would consider running in IA-03 if Latham goes for the Senate seat.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix ruled out running for either the U.S. Senate or IA-01 in 2014. Dix left the Iowa House in 2006 to run for the open seat in IA-01, but finished second in the GOP primary. Further updates are after the jump.

Iowa Labor Commissioner Michael Mauro is considering another run for secretary of state in 2014, he confirmed in a telephone interview yesterday. If he runs, he will face Brad Anderson in a Democratic primary.

Busy weekend in Iowa politics! I’m continuing to update the post on Tom Harkin retiring with reactions and speculation about possible Senate candidates. Here’s an open thread for anything else on your mind.

A bunch of links that caught my eye this week are after the jump.

On Saturday night the Des Moines Register announced the major stops on the 2013 Register’s Annual Great Bike Ride Across Iowa (RAGBRAI). The 406.6-mile ride takes a southern path through the state from July 21 to July 27. It is the second-shortest route in RAGBRAI history and the seventh-easiest in terms of feet of climb. (Last year’s route was also on the easy side.) Bonus for RAGBRAI riders: this year’s route goes through what is probably Iowa’s best small town for ethnic food. UPDATE: The lead ride planner for the Des Moines Register explained at the announcement party that they went with a relaxed route this year because although last year’s ride was supposed to be easy, it turned out to be grueling with temperatures above 100 degrees several days.

Overnight stops are after the jump.

P.S.-An exhibition on RAGBRAI and the history of bicycling in Iowa will open this summer at the State Historical Museum in Des Moines, I learned today at the Iowa Bike Expo. Anyone who appreciates trails, bike lanes and everything that makes bicycling safer and more fun in Iowa should go join the Iowa Bicycle Coalition.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee met today in Des Moines to rubber-stamp the election of State Representative Tyler Olson as state party chair for the next two-year cycle. No other candidates were considered for the position. Bleeding Heartland posted background on Olson here. Although the Republican Party of Iowa is dysfunctional in many ways, I prefer their method for choosing a party leader. There’s no reason not to have multiple candidates speak publicly to the state central committee about the party’s pressing tasks and what strengths they would bring to the top job.

Also today, the Iowa Democratic Party announced that Troy Price will be the new executive director. He replaces Norm Sterzenbach, who held that position for six years. Price worked for Governors Tom Vilsack and Chet Culver and later became executive director of the LGBT advocacy group One Iowa. He left that group to serve as political director for President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in Iowa.

Olson and Price have their work cut out for them, with an open U.S. Senate seat to defend and a tough race against Governor Terry Branstad in a midterm election year. The Obama campaign ran a fantastic ground game, but no database or micro-targeting expertise will magically transform a midterm electorate into the presidential-year electorate more friendly to Democratic candidates.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s press release announcing its new officers is after the jump. Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

Free advice for the IDP’s leadership team: don’t invite the media to cover your Soviet-style election if you’re going to kick them out as soon as things get interesting.