Well, ARG has a new Iowa (and New Hampshire) poll out on the 2008 presidential candidates. Remember that their December poll was not consistent with other polls on the Democratic side, presumably because of a different definition of “likely caucus goer.” With the ARG criteria, the Iowa likely caucus goers had Clinton on top in December, like the likely primary voters in other states and nationally, while other pollsters had Edwards on top for likely Iowa caucus goers. With that caveat, it is interesting to see the trends after Obama’s announcement and Clinton’s visit to Iowa. There may be further movement with Obama’s visit to Iowa next week.

ARG, phone interviews of 600 likely Iowa caucus goers, Jan 29 – Feb 1, 07 (Dec. 06), +/- 4%

Clinton 35 (31)

Edwards 18 (20)

Obama  14 (10)

Vilsack 12 (17)

Biden, Clark, and Kucinich had 2% each, and Richardson and Dodd had 1%. 13% were undecided.

There is a gender bias, with 39% of the Iowa women surveyed supporting Clinton, and 30% of the men surveyed supporting Clinton. If only previous caucus goers were counted, Clinton had 29% and Edwards had 25%.

Not a huge change from December, but Clinton and Obama did move up some, and Edwards and Vilsack dropped some. For all of his efforts, Vilsack is going in the wrong direction in his home state. It isn’t just slow recognition of the their governor as presidential material, because Richardson comes out on top with 28% among 2008 candidates in New Mexico.

Identifying likely caucus goers at this stage is a crap shoot, but the trends are interesting.

Does Vilsack have a chance of winning the Iowa caucuses?

(Obama Press Release) 

  “WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) today introduced binding and comprehensive legislation that not only reverses the President’s dangerous and ill-conceived escalation of the Iraq war, but also sets a new course for U.S. policy that can bring a responsible end to the war and bring our troops home.

  “Our troops have performed brilliantly in Iraq, but no amount of American soldiers can solve the political differences at the heart of somebody else’s civil war,” Obama said. “That’s why I have introduced a plan to not only stop the escalation of this war, but begin a phased redeployment that can pressure the Iraqis to finally reach a political settlement and reduce the violence.”

  The Obama plan offers a responsible yet effective alternative to the President’s failed policy of escalation. Realizing there can be no military solution in Iraq, it focuses instead on reaching a political solution in Iraq, protecting our interests in the region, and bringing this war to a responsible end. The legislation commences redeployment of U.S. forces no later than May 1, 2007 with the goal of removing all combat brigades from Iraq by March 31, 2008, a date that is consistent with the expectation of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group.”

Full release below the fold:

Charlotte Eby in the Quad City Times breaks the big story on some new hires for the Obama campaign in Iowa:

Paul Tewes will serve as Obama’s director in Iowa, where the caucuses kick off the presidential nominating contest. Tewes, a Minnesota native, ran Democrat Al Gore’s Iowa caucus campaign in 2000.

Iowa native Emily Parcell has been tapped to serve as the political director. She worked on Sen. Tom Harkin’s re-election campaign in 2002, and U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt’s 2004 caucus campaign.

And so, the hiring for the big three (Edwards, Obama and Clinton) finally begins.