In the end, it wasn’t even close.

Democrat Catelin Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch by 4,208 votes to 3,411 (55.2 percent to 44.7 percent) in Iowa Senate district 1, covering much of Sioux City and some rural areas in Woodbury County. Donald Trump carried this district by 11 points in the 2024 presidential election, winning more votes than Kamala Harris in fifteen of the 22 precincts. Yet Drey carried nineteen of the 22 precincts and improved on Harris’ vote share in every precinct.

It was the second Iowa Senate seat Democrats flipped in 2025, and the fourth straight special election in Iowa where the Democratic nominee overperformed by more than 20 points, compared to the November 2024 presidential results. Drey’s win also means Republicans will no longer have a two-thirds supermajority in the Iowa Senate when the legislature convenes in January.

While not every tactic from a special election campaign translates into a higher-turnout midterm environment, Democrats can learn a lot from what Drey and her team did right as they prepare for 2026 races for down-ballot offices. In addition, these lessons could help many progressives running in Iowa’s nonpartisan city and school board elections this November.

Senator-elect Drey and Iowa Senate Minority Leader Janice Weiner joined Iowa Starting Line’s Zachary Oren Smith and me on August 27 to discuss how they overcame the odds. You can watch our whole conversation here.

I also sought insight from Julie Stauch, who has worked on many Democratic campaigns and helped guide a successful 2023 special election campaign for Warren County auditor.

UPDATE: Drey won the election by 4,208 votes to 3,411 (55.2 percent to 44.7 percent), according to unofficial results. A forthcoming post will analyze the precinct level results. Original post follows.

The stakes are unusually high for the August 26 special election in Iowa Senate district 1. If Republican Christopher Prosch wins the race to succeed former State Senator Rocky De Witt, who died of cancer in June, the GOP will hold 34 of the 50 Iowa Senate seats for next year’s legislative session. That would give Republicans the two-thirds majority they need to confirm Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees with no Democratic support.

If Democrat Catelin Drey flips the seat, the Republican majority in the chamber will shrink to 33-17, allowing Senate Democrats to block some of the governor’s worst appointees.

Equally important, a win in red-trending Woodbury County could help Democrats recruit more challengers for the 2026 legislative races, and could inspire more progressives to run in this November’s nonpartisan elections for city offices and school boards.

Although Donald Trump comfortably carried Senate district 1 in the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have grounds to be optimistic going into Tuesday’s election.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com 

There’s nothing wrong with politicians discussing their religious faith and beliefs. Religion is often a huge part of what makes a person who they are. There is, however, something terribly wrong when a candidate or office holder condemns all other religious beliefs by implying everyone in the United States should believe the way they do, and the country should make policy based on his beliefs. That’s religious nationalism. 

Religious nationalism is the belief that “a country’s historically predominant religion should be a central part of its national identity and drive policymaking.” It is linked to policies that promote one religion over others. It’s really just old-fashioned religious bigotry. 

Chris Prosch, the Republican candidate in the upcoming August 26 special election for Iowa Senate district 1, embraces religious nationalism. In 2022, Prosch’s firm “helped produce and distribute” a video called “Enemies Within the Church.” That video claimed mainline Christian denominations were corrupting Christianity because some leaders have become “woke.”

Voters in Iowa Senate district 1 will elect a successor to Republican State Senator Rocky De Witt on Tuesday, August 26. Governor Kim Reynolds scheduled the special election after De Witt died of cancer last week.

Although Donald Trump comfortably carried Senate district 1 in the 2024 presidential election, this seat should be highly competitive in a low-turnout special election environment.

Following De Witt’s passing, Republicans hold 33 Iowa Senate seats, and Democrats hold 16 seats. The difference between a 34-16 majority and a 33-17 majority may seem inconsequential, but it would matter a great deal when the Senate considers the governor’s nominees during the 2026 legislative session. Flipping the seat would enable Democrats to block some of Reynolds’ most controversial appointments, who need a two-thirds majority vote to be confirmed.