“Good job you did! Great job,” President Donald Trump says to U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks in a 30-second commercial that has reached thousands of Iowans on the radio or social media platforms over the past month.

The three-term Republican did not place the ads through her campaign committee, which had accumulated more than $2.6 million cash on hand as of September 30.

Instead, Miller-Meeks—considered one of the country’s most vulnerable House Republicans—has used taxpayer funds to share Trump’s praise with Iowans.

Bleeding Heartland’s review of data from Facebook’s ad library and Federal Communications Commission files suggest that Miller-Meeks’ Congressional office has spent at least $10,000 to run this spot. (Several other taxpayer-funded radio ads have also been in rotation this fall.)

If the 2024 campaign is any indication, Miller-Meeks may spend much more from her Congressional office budget in the coming months, as she seeks to shore up her appeal with conservatives before another competitive primary election in Iowa’s first district.

Peggy Huppert is a retired nonprofit executive who has been active in Democratic politics as a volunteer for campaigns ranging from school board to President since 1984.

As Democrats in Iowa’s third Congressional district, we all share the same goal in 2026: defeating U.S. Representative Zach Nunn and flipping this seat so we can put a real check on the chaos in Washington. That’s why the independent Change Research poll, conducted in late October, should be a wake-up call and a roadmap.

That poll found State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott leads Zach Nunn 53 percent to 40 percent in a general election matchup. That’s not a moral victory or a tie. That’s a clear, solid lead against an incumbent in one of the most competitive districts in the country.

Even more important is who the poll finds is putting Sarah ahead.

A little-known conservative group based in Virginia spent heavily in October to run a 30-second positive ad about Attorney General Brenna Bird on television and streaming services across Iowa.

The Fund for Economic Independence later claimed their commercial “sharply” improved Bird’s image with “targeted persuadable voters,” moving her from a 7-point deficit to a tie in a ballot test against Democratic challenger Nate Willems.

While it’s impossible to confirm whether that commercial measurably helped Bird with swing voters, one thing is clear: more than a year before the 2026 midterm election, the attorney general’s polling numbers were bad enough to inspire a well-funded outside rescue mission.

“I heard a physician say one time, you can tell a lot from a person by looking at their skin, and if their skin looks good, generally they’re in pretty good health,” Chris Jones told a capacity crowd at The Harkin Institute at Drake University on November 12. “And the way I see it, I look at Iowa, our lakes and our rivers and our aquifers in that same way.”

Those polluted waters “don’t look good” now, Jones said. “They’re sick,” and they indicate “we have a malignant tumor growing on the inside.”

The malignant tumor, in Jones’ view, is “corporate agriculture.” But consolidation in agriculture and the dominant model for farming have “had effects far beyond our water.” They have also “contributed greatly to the decline of rural Iowa.”

After sounding the alarm for years through his writing and public speaking, Jones is now exploring a Democratic campaign for Iowa secretary of agriculture in 2026. He spoke to Bleeding Heartland after the event in Des Moines about his vision for change and the policies he would champion if he runs for statewide office.

Xavier Carrigan is a Democratic candidate in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

Picture a hostage tied to the tracks. The train is coming. The kidnappers demand a ransom, and the so-called heroes in Washington hand them the keys to the vault.

That’s what happened this fall. After 43 days of a federal government shutdown, Congress reopened the government but left millions of working Americans still bound to the rails. The funding bill keeps programs like SNAP food assistance running, restores federal pay, and prevents layoffs. Those things matter. But what didn’t make it into the deal will hurt far longer than any shutdown: the failure to extend the enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act.

State Representative Aime Wichtendahl represents Iowa House district 80.

In the lead up to the 2025 election the consultant class decided to release a 58-page document called deciding ‘Deciding to Win’ a supposed blueprint for how Democrats could win in 2026.

The report was authored by a trio of consultants—David Axelrod, James Carville, and David Plouffe—a group of politicos who haven’t been successful since Avengers was new on DVD.

The document focused on a prescriptive policy agenda for the 2026 elections: emphasize some kitchen table issues, like minimum wage or prescription drugs, and focus less on “some identity and cultural issues.”

Which is consultant-speak for chuck trans people under the bus…just a little bit. After all, they still need the queer community to be uninspired enough to still pull the lever for their “lesser of two evils” candidates ad infinitum.

At long last, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra confirmed on October 28 that he’s running for governor.

For all of his talk about “taking Iowa to new heights”—and boy, was there a lot of it—the Republican front-runner’s rollout won’t get high marks.

Jazlin Coley is a Drake University graduate, educator, and community activator who now serves as Director of the Crew Scholars Program at her alma mater. She is committed to redefining what belonging looks like in higher education and embedding identity, equity, and care into its core. Currently pursuing her PhD in Education, Jazlin’s research and practice focus on harm in belonging practices, institutional accountability, and the cultivation of spaces where students—particularly those from marginalized backgrounds, can lead and thrive.

I met Jennifer Konfrst my first year at Drake University, long before she became House Democratic Leader or a candidate for Congress. Back then, I was a first-generation college student, new to Iowa, unsure of my footing, and truthfully—unsure if I belonged. Jennifer was assigned as my faculty mentor through the Crew Scholars Program, a leadership initiative for students of color. She didn’t have to take on that role; she volunteered for it. And she showed up. Every Thursday.

Some of our meetings ran long because I was navigating personal and academic challenges and needed a space to vent. Jennifer listened without judgment, asked hard questions, and reminded me that my presence on campus mattered. She balanced humor and humility with a kind of grounded honesty that’s rare in higher education, or in politics. She saw me as a person before she saw me as a student.

Gary Berkland is the Belmond-Klemme School Board president.

I’m a lifelong Iowan, a Vietnam veteran, a small-town lawyer, and yes—a registered Republican. I’ve voted for plenty of Republicans over the years, but this election, I’m proud to be supporting Democrat Zach Wahls for the United States Senate.

That might surprise some folks, but it really shouldn’t. Zach represents the kind of leadership both parties used to value: honest, practical, and grounded in Iowa common sense. He’s part of a new generation that’s more interested in solving problems than scoring partisan points, and that’s exactly what our country needs.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column. This essay first appeared on Substack.

As I write this column, the United States government is still shut down. Federal employees are not getting paid.

No, wait, that’s not quite true. Most federal employees are not getting paid.

Who’s still receiving a paycheck?

That would be President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, members of Congress, and federal judges. The Constitution requires that they be paid no matter what. Their staffs—and those amount to many thousands of people—are continuing to work, but without receiving their salaries. They’ll be entitled to their back pay once the government reopens.

A new Iowa poll is testing messages about a $4,000 tax credit to help families cover “approved education expenses,” and suggests that approach may save taxpayer money currently spent on children enrolled in public schools.

It’s not clear who commissioned the text survey, which has been in the field in recent days. The questionnaire points to Randy Feenstra’s campaign for governor, which is technically still in the “exploratory” phase, or some entity planning to support Feenstra for governor. Many of the questions use preferred Republican frames (“education freedom,” parental choice, “limiting government overreach”). The poll asks how important it is for Iowa’s next governor to “work to improve K-12 education,” and tests only one potential match-up: Randy Feenstra vs. Rob Sand. (Last month, Bleeding Heartland covered a different poll testing messages about Feenstra and Sand.)

Homeschoolers are an important Republican constituency, especially among social conservatives. Families who send their kids to private schools—almost all of which are Christian or Catholic—would also welcome an education tax credit, in addition to the taxpayer assistance they already receive through Iowa’s school voucher program (“education savings accounts”).

Feenstra has good reason to search for ways to shore up his support with the “education freedom” crowd. His underwhelming victory over a little-known 2024 primary challenger highlighted troubles on his right flank. He is unpopular among property rights activists who oppose the use of eminent domain to build Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed CO2 pipeline. He has skipped forums involving other Republican candidates for governor, including an Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event in July. Feenstra’s exploratory committee has the resources to pay for opinion research.

A recent poll of “likely Republican voters,” conducted by American Viewpoint, found Feenstra “in a commanding position,” with 41 percent support in the governor’s race and no other GOP candidate above 5 percent. A cautionary note: American Viewpoint’s polls for Feenstra’s U.S. House campaign found the incumbent with a roughly 50-point lead over challenger Kevin Virgil before the 2024 GOP primary. Feenstra ended up winning the nomination in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district by a margin of 60.1 percent to 39.4 percent.

“The system is broken,” declared Libertarian Thomas Laehn as he kicked off his U.S. Senate campaign on October 11.

The Greene County attorney, who became the first Libertarian elected to a partisan office in Iowa in 2018, styled his case against two-party governance as a two-count “indictment” of the 535 members of Congress.

One of his central arguments could appeal to many disaffected Republicans.

UPDATE: On September 29, the Des Moines School Board learned that the Iowa Board of Education Examiners had revoked Roberts’ administrator license, and received from federal authorities a copy of the final order of removal and other documentation indicating that Roberts was not authorized to work in the U.S. The board held another special meeting at which members voted to put Roberts on unpaid leave. They also gave his attorney until noon on September 30 to provide documents supporting his claim to citizenship. Otherwise the school district will start the process of terminating his contract. Original post follows.

Members of the Des Moines School Board voted unanimously on September 27 to place Superintendent Dr. Ian Roberts on paid administrative leave, one day after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detained him. ICE has said Roberts is unlawfully present in the U.S. and lacks work authorization.

In support of the motion she offered at the special meeting, school board member Kim Martorano said, “While there is still much that we don’t know, what we do know is that Dr. Roberts is currently unavailable to perform his duties as superintendent.” She said Iowa Code Chapter 279 and “standard district practice” called for putting Roberts on paid administrative leave “pending further information. The board may revisit this at any time that we have obtained additional concrete information relevant to Dr. Roberts’ status.”

“You understand what too many of our fellow Americans have forgotten: that democracy is not on automatic pilot,” U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen told hundreds of Democrats in Des Moines on September 13. “Its survival, its very survival, depends on us.”

In his keynote address at the Polk County Democrats’ annual Steak Fry fundraiser, the senior senator from Maryland repeatedly urged Democrats to fight back against President Donald Trump’s lawless regime. He also faulted members of his own party, who don’t always stand up for core principles.

Rose Mary Pratt is a native of Des Moines and has been involved in Polk County and Iowa Democratic Party politics for fifty plus years. She is a former secondary education teacher in Minnesota, Council Bluffs, and the Des Moines area. She worked on the administrative staff of Governor Tom Vilsack and as a Legislative Secretary in the Iowa House of Representatives. She has volunteered and worked in many campaigns and remains committed to mentoring young people who want to be in politics and run for public office. She and her husband reside in Des Moines, and she is a proud mother and grandmother. 

As a long-time Democratic party activist, I’ve met many candidates running for office over the years and have worked in campaigns and been involved at a grassroots level in Iowa elections. I have given my time and money, and tried to encourage and mentor those who are committed and know why they want to run for public office. I have been fortunate to work with and for people who believe they can make a difference. I love the idea that when I see good people run, and win or lose, I am still glad to have had the chance to be a part of their campaign. 

I have had the honor of working for Governor Tom Vilsack and alongside Democratic and Republican lawmakers at the state capitol. I feel my activism should continue and I have to stay involved and work to find and support candidates whose qualities and abilities to lead are evident.  However, more significantly is the candidate’s desire to be of public service and in the public arena at this time of polarization and disillusionment with government.

I believe the country’s future depends on electing strong and visionary candidates who give us hope. I am endorsing Jennifer Konfrst for Iowa’s third Congressional district. I am confident she is the best candidate to represent our district and can win.

It’s been a wildly successful week for U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.

Three days after U.S. Senator Joni Ernst confirmed she won’t seek re-election, the three-term member of Congress all but wrapped up the Republican nomination for Iowa’s Senate seat. President Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” shut the door on any realistic chance Hinson could lose the June 2026 primary.

But Hinson’s embrace of the Washington establishment could alienate a segment of Republicans she will need after the primary. And her slavish allegiance to Trump could become a liability for the likely nominee in the general election campaign.

Julie Stauch is a Democratic candidate for governor.

My team and I hit the ground running in June, and visited all fifteen Community College districts of Iowa. From the start, I made it clear: this campaign would be different. The old way of running campaigns isn’t working anymore, and I believe Iowans deserve a new approach. 

Over the last three months, I’ve spent my time understanding what people across this state most want from their next governor. The core message I heard was that Iowans want leaders who will focus on the real problems they face. The people of Iowa are fed up with candidates not deeply engaging in conversation with them. 

That’s why I’ve held 27 in-depth interview sessions across these districts, ensuring that every voice is heard and every concern is taken seriously. In fact, during the very first interview session, a woman wrote on her worksheet, “I feel like I’ve been heard for the first time.”

Promising to fight for public schools, workers’ rights, safe drinking water, and quality health care, former Democratic State Senator Nate Boulton announced on August 29 that he will run for the Iowa House in 2026. The previous day, longtime Democratic State Representative Rick Olson confirmed he won’t seek another term in Iowa House district 39.

That seat covers part of the east side of Des Moines and Pleasant Hill in eastern Polk County, making up half the Senate district Boulton represented through 2024. Like many similar working-class areas, it was a Democratic stronghold for decades and has shifted toward Republicans during the Trump era.

Boulton, an employment lawyer for many workers and labor unions, served two terms in the Iowa Senate. He initially represented a safe seat for Democrats. Despite sexual harassment allegations that ended his 2018 campaign for governor, he did not face a Democratic primary challenger or a Republican opponent in 2020.

After redistricting removed some heavily Democratic neighborhoods from his territory and added GOP-leaning precincts in eastern Polk County, Boulton lost his 2024 re-election bid by less than 0.2 percent (44 votes out of more than 31,000 ballots cast). Republicans spent more than $750,000 on that Iowa Senate race, and Democrats spent about $500,000.

But Boulton significantly outperformed the Democratic baseline in his Senate district as a whole, and in the precincts where he will run for the state House next year. Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of the 2024 precinct-level results from House district 39, which can be viewed here, show Donald Trump edged out Kamala Harris in the area (49.6 percent to 48.9 percent). In contrast, Boulton received more of the votes cast for state Senate (51.4 percent to 48.3 percent for Republican Mike Pike). He received a higher vote share than Harris in all twelve precincts and more raw votes than his party’s presidential nominee in eight of them.

U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley dodged a journalist’s question this week about his plans for the 2028 campaign.

During the latest edition of Grassley’s “Capitol Hill Report,” released on August 20, Marion County Express publisher Steve Woodhouse asked whether the senator planned to seek re-election again. Grassley replied, “This is the summer of my third year. So you need to ask that question in about two years.”

Grassley will turn 92 years old next month and would be 95 when his current term ends. I doubt he will seek another six-year term in 2028; his campaign’s fundraising totals (less than $100,000 per quarter since 2022) are much lower than what one would expect from a senator planning another re-election bid. But it’s notable that he is not ready to rule out the prospect.

Xavier Carrigan is a Democratic candidate in Iowa’s third Congressional district. He delivered these remarks at the Iowa Insurance Division’s August 19 public hearing on proposed increases in health insurance premiums for policies sold on Iowa’s Affordable Care Act exchange. Although he is not directly impacted by these potential price increases, he felt that sharing his own experience from recent years was important to add to the context of the unaffordability of health care in the U.S., as part of his fight for Medicare for All.

My name is Xavier Carrigan, and while I am running for the U.S. House, I am here today as a citizen who has been forced to navigate the ACA marketplace when I had no other insurance options.

I know what it’s like to lose your insurance and be thrown into a system where every choice is a bad choice. When you’re uninsured and dealing with a chronic condition, the marketplace becomes a cruel joke disguised as help.

Chris Jones is a fisherman who lives in Iowa City. He writes the Substack newsletter The Swine Republic, where this post first appeared. 

Secretary of Agriculture is one of seven executive offices Iowans see on their off-year voting ballot. The Iowa legislature created both the office and the Department of Agriculture (now IDALS) in 1923.

It may seem curious that we have a statewide election for the administrator of a department that employs less than 2 percent of the state government workforce and represents a private industry that is only Iowa’s third-biggest and one with a declining share of the state’s Gross Domestic Product. All sorts of economic sectors are bigger than agriculture; for example, health care now nearly doubles Ag’s GDP in Iowa.

But we have to remember that in 1923, almost 40 percent of Iowa’s population lived on farms. It’s well below 10 percent in the present day, when only 67,000 people in Iowa list farming as their primary source of income (2 percent of Iowa) and many farmers don’t even live on the farm. GMO has made crop farming so easy that some Iowa farmers also farm in Kansas and the Dakotas and probably other states as well.

A person could wonder why we all don’t vote for a Secretary of Teachers, or a Secretary of Bartenders or Hairdressers or Truck-drivers.

Julie Stauch is a Democratic candidate for governor. She lives in West Des Moines. This column first appeared in the Cedar Rapids Gazette.

In June, after declaring my campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor, I started traveling the state to hold Interview sessions in fifteen Community College districts. The goal is to understand ground level concerns of Iowans through free-flowing conversations. I want to determine what problems most Iowans are concerned about. Iowa’s next governor will need to address those problems.

While most of the participants have been Democrats, there have also been Republicans and no-party voters in the mix. These have been substantive conversations where individual Iowans share what they see as the biggest challenges facing their area and the state and what a successful Iowa would look like. I also answer their questions about my point of view on a variety of issues.

My core reason for running for governor is to solve problems Iowans need solved.

Matthew P. Thornburg is an associate professor at Misericordia University who studies elections. His mother’s side of the family hails from Greene and O’Brien counties, and he maintains close ties to Iowa and its politics.

The use of eminent domain to build carbon capture pipelines is a uniquely controversial issue in Iowa politics. Unlike most issues in the state, which fit neatly into the red vs. blue paradigm of modern U.S. politics, CO₂ pipelines put Iowa’s Republican establishment on the wrong side of most voters in the state and divide the Republican Party base. The issue remains salient in Des Moines as potentially competitive primary and general election contests loom for governor of Iowa in 2026.

Among recent developments in the governor’s race, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-04) has reportedly raised millions of dollars for his bid for the nomination, and has rolled out a slew of endorsements from other Iowa GOP elected officials. Feenstra is no stranger to the pipeline issue. The Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline most heavily affects his district in northern and western Iowa. His 2024 opponents all emphasized the issue: Kevin Virgil in the Republican primary and Democrat Ryan Melton and Libertarian Charles Aldrich in the general election.

Feenstra’s perceived indifference on the CO₂ pipeline offers an opening for rivals in the upcoming Republican primary for governor.

Taylor Kohn is an Iowan advocate and publicist currently residing in Minnesota.

On the first day of Rob Sand’s campaign for governor, he gave an interview to WHO Radio. When the host Simon Conway asked whether trans girls should be allowed to play sports, Sand replied with a flat “no.”

The comment was poorly received by many, prompting the Des Moines Register to reach out to Sand for an interview on the subject. Sand declined, instead providing a statement doubling down on his exclusionary stance: “I’ve been clear that I support common sense policies like the law protecting fairness in women’s sports, and that this year’s law legalizing discrimination in all places of life is wrong.”

It is, of course, dishonest to say in the same breath that one opposes discrimination and that a certain type of discrimination is “common sense.”

Politico set off another round of speculation about U.S. Senator Joni Ernst’s future this week. Jordain Carney and Rachael Bade reported on July 10 that Ernst “is the next GOP senator on retirement watch,” with U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) “waiting in the wings” if the incumbent opts not to seek a third term.

Hinson brushed off the rumors, telling WHO Radio host Simon Conway she’s “100 percent on Team Joni” and hopes Ernst will run again. She added, “The DC media loves to obsess over things.” Notably, Hinson didn’t clarify whether she would run for Senate next year if the seat were open—nor did Conway ask her.

I’ve long believed Hinson is laying the groundwork to run for Senate as soon as Iowa has an open seat—presumably in 2028, when Senator Chuck Grassley’s eighth term will end.

So while I still expect Ernst to seek re-election, the latest coverage got me thinking: who would be the tougher opponent for the Democratic nominee in 2026? It’s usually harder to defeat an incumbent than to flip an open seat. But this race might be the exception that proves the rule.

The last time Donald Trump was president, Iowa Democrats had a pretty good midterm election. The party’s candidates defeated two Republican members of Congress, came surprisingly close to beating U.S. Representative Steve King, had a net gain of five Iowa House seats (and almost a sixth), and came within 3 points of winning the governor’s race.

Many Democrats like their chances of improving on that tally in 2026.

But before they get too excited, they need to understand the terrain is now much more favorable to Iowa Republicans than it was during the 2018 election cycle.

A huge GOP voter registration advantage, combined with consistently higher turnout for Republicans in midterm years, make it hard to construct a winning scenario for Democrats in Iowa’s 2026 statewide elections.

To overcome those long odds, Democrats will need not only strong GOTV and good messaging, but also a better voter registration effort over the coming year than the party has seen in decades.

“People are excited, and I think so far what we’re seeing is hunger for something different,” State Auditor Rob Sand told me on the day he announced he’s running for governor in 2026.

“The real theme across my work is I’m a problem solver,” Julie Stauch told me shortly before her campaign launch.

I interviewed both candidates about their top priorities and the case they will make to Iowa voters over the coming year. Toward the end, I discuss the biggest challenge facing each contender at this early stage.

Taylor Kohn is an Iowan advocate and publicist currently residing in Minnesota.

State Auditor Rob Sand, the top elected Democrat in Iowa, announced his run for governor on May 12. With Governor Kim Reynolds not seeking re-election, some see Sand’s candidacy as a chance to win the office away from the GOP. I’m among those who would like to see that happen.

Unfortunately, Rob Sand is not offering a real alternative to the party in power.

“President Trump was right about everything—build the wall, end catch-and-release, and stand with law enforcement,” wrote Attorney General Brenna Bird in a May 21 post on her campaign Facebook page. She was near the U.S. border with Mexico, at a press conference organized by the Republican Attorneys General Association.

The Iowa Attorney General’s office didn’t release a statement about the trip before or afterwards, and didn’t post about it on Bird’s official Facebook or X/Twitter feeds.

That makes sense, because Bird didn’t go to Arizona to perform any official duties. The trip was the latest sign that she is desperate to secure President Donald Trump’s endorsement as she considers whether to run for governor in 2026.

Two Democrats launched campaigns this past week in Iowa’s third Congressional district, one of the party’s top 2026 pickup opportunities in the U.S. House. Republican Representative Zach Nunn held off challenger Lanon Baccam in 2024, winning by roughly the same four-point margin by which Donald Trump carried the district. But in the last midterm election while Trump was president, Democratic challenger Cindy Axne defeated another two-term GOP incumbent in the Congressional district anchored by the Des Moines metro area.

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales see IA-03 as a “lean Republican” district for 2026, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball views this race as a toss-up.

I interviewed State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott and State Representative Jennifer Konfrst about their priorities and the case they will make to Democrats as they compete for the chance to face Nunn in November.

I’m not aware of any other Democrats seriously considering this race. State Representative Austin Baeth, who said earlier this year he might run for Congress, confirmed to me on May 8 that he will seek a third term in Iowa House district 36. Though there is plenty of time for others to join the field, they would struggle to compete against Trone Garriott and Konfrst, who are experienced candidates and fundraisers with the capacity to run strong district-wide campaigns.

“We have to take our message to the voters,” State Representative Brian Meyer told reporters on May 8, soon after his Democratic colleagues elected him to be the chamber’s next minority leader.

State Representative Jennifer Konfrst has led Iowa House Democrats since June 2021 but is stepping down from that role once the legislature adjourns for the year. She announced on May 8 that she’s running for Congress in Iowa’s third district.

Meyer will lead the smallest Democratic contingent in the Iowa House in 55 years (the chamber now has 67 Republicans and 33 Democrats). As he seeks to build back, he intends to highlight economic issues and target seats in mid-sized cities that were once Democratic strongholds. Toward that end, Meyer plans to take a “little more aggressive” approach during floor debates, and showcase a wider range of House Democrats when communicating with the public.

Raising enough money for the 2026 election cycle will likely be his biggest challenge.

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in the White House have brought the U.S. an economy weakened by tariffs, a depreciating dollar, and the worst stock market performance during a new presidency since 1974. Trump now has historically low approval ratings, even on his handling of the economy—which had long been his strongest public opinion metric. Economists and market analysts increasingly see a recession likely to come this year, and consumer confidence just dropped to its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But to hear U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson tell the story, the country has experienced “100 days of WINNING under President Trump!” The Republican from Iowa’s second Congressional district told reporters on May 2 that the president is “ushering in the new era, the golden age for our economy.”

Whether she’s speaking to a national television audience, her social media followers, the press, or a hostile town hall crowd, Hinson is working hard to demonstrate her loyalty to Trump.

Her tight embrace of a polarizing president could hurt her with swing voters in 2026 but may be essential for her 2028 ambitions.

State Auditor Rob Sand hasn’t made his 2026 plans official. But a text poll that was recently in the field is another data point suggesting he will run for governor.

A Bleeding Heartland reader provided screenshots of the survey. Many of the questions test messages about Sand without naming him. Other questions seek to gauge how strongly Iowa voters feel about a series of policies or issues affecting the state.

Based on the wording, I would guess that Sand’s campaign (which closed out 2024 with more than $7.5 million in the bank) commissioned the survey. It’s also possible some other entity supporting Sand’s aspirations invested in this research. It’s not clear how many Iowans received the poll or whether the survey sample reflected the partisan make-up of the statewide electorate, or was tailored for specific groups (such as independent or swing voters).

Assuming Sand runs for governor, he will be heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination. But he may have competition in the June 2026 primary: as I first reported on “KHOI’s Capitol Week,” Julie Stauch filed paperwork on April 21 to create a committee for a Democratic candidate for governor. Stauch has worked on many Iowa campaigns, including Dukakis for president in 1988 and U.S. Representative Leonard Boswell’s 2002 re-election bid. Most recently, she was political director for Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 Iowa caucus campaign, managed Mike Franken’s 2022 campaign for U.S. Senate, and advised Kimberly Sheets, who won a 2023 special election for Warren County auditor.

Back to the text poll about Sand, which appeared on research-opinions.com.

UPDATE: Techau suspended his campaign on June 30, saying in a statement, “campaigns aren’t just about convictions — they require resources to be competitive. And the reality is, this campaign’s fundraising simply hasn’t met the threshold level that this race demands.” Original post follows.

“It’s not about left/right, Democrat/Republicans, it’s about doing the right thing,” Kevin Techau told me on April 17, the day he launched his campaign for Congress in Iowa’s second district. “I think my record supports that that’s been the direction of my career.”

IA-02 wasn’t on either party’s target list in 2024. But Techau has potential to mount a serious challenge to three-term U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.

This analysis assumes Hinson will run for re-election to the U.S. House. Although she has been mentioned as a possible candidate for governor, I doubt she would roll the dice on a statewide primary, where she would probably compete against a Republican with closer ties to President Donald Trump.

That said, if Hinson did seek another office in 2026, Techau’s prospects would improve dramatically. With rare exceptions, it’s easier for the party out of power to win an open seat than to defeat an incumbent. Hinson outperformed the top of the Republican ticket in 2024 and goes into this cycle with high name ID and more than $2.2 million in the bank, whereas a new GOP candidate would be starting from scratch.

More than a year before Iowa’s 2026 primary election, Democrats already have one announced candidate for U.S. Senate (Nathan Sage) and two officially running for the U.S. House (Travis Terrell in the first district and Kevin Techau in the second). More Democrats will launch campaigns for Iowa’s statewide and federal offices in the coming months.

So it’s a good time to preview how this website will cover the next round of Iowa Democratic primaries.

GUIDELINES FOR MY OWN REPORTING

First, I don’t plan to endorse a contender in any competitive Democratic primary. My goal is to produce in-depth reporting on the major races, with details about the candidates and the political landscape that readers may not find in other media outlets.

Second, my coverage will focus on candidates with the capacity to run a credible statewide or district-wide campaign. I don’t mean just front-runners; plenty of little-known candidates have built a following and eventually won the nomination for a major office. I mean that when deciding where to spend my time and energy on individual candidate profiles or surveys of the primary field, I will be looking for signs that a candidate is doing the work this kind of campaign requires.

“The working class has been working their ass off every day to survive and make ends meet for their families,” Nathan Sage told me this week. Making working people’s lives better is the driving force of his U.S. Senate campaign.

At least four Democrats are thinking seriously about running against two-term Republican incumbent Joni Ernst. Sage was the first to make it official, on April 16.

Sage discussed his background, beliefs, and reasons for running in an interview with Bleeding Heartland the day before his campaign launch. The full video of our exchange is at the end of this post.

It will take months to fully assess the fallout from Governor Kim Reynolds’ decision not to seek another term in 2026.

But one thing’s for sure: State Auditor Rob Sand’s chances of winning the next governor’s race are substantially higher now than they were before April 11.

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign has a staffer on the ground again in Iowa. No, the senator from Vermont isn’t getting a head start on the 2028 caucuses.

In an April 3 telephone interview, Evan Burger described his focus and early work as Iowa organizer for Friends of Bernie Sanders.

UPDATE: Wahls formally launched his Senate bid on June 11. You can watch his interview with Laura Belin about the campaign here. Original post follows.

Dave Price had the scoop for Gray Media on March 28: State Senator Zach Wahls is “certainly listening” to those who have encouraged him to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Wahls is the first Democrat to publicly express interest in this race. Two-term Senator Joni Ernst has not formally launched her re-election campaign but is widely expected to seek a third term.

Wahls told Price he will decide whether to run for higher office after the Iowa legislative session. But he’s already criticizing Ernst, most recently in a March 26 news release that tied the senator to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “reckless mishandling of military plans” in a Signal group chat.

The only Iowa Republican in Congress who did not receive Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement!” in 2022 has been working hard to demonstrate her loyalty to him.

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has stuck close to Trump—literally and figuratively—as she prepares for what could be a tough 2026 primary campaign in Iowa’s first Congressional district.