When U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson was gearing up to run for Senate last year, her primary objectives appeared to be pleasing the “audience of one” in the White House and clearing the Republican field. Within days of her campaign launch, she had locked down support from President Donald Trump and most of the GOP establishment.
That should have been enough in a state where Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate race since 2008, and Republicans enjoy a large voter registration advantage.
Things haven’t gone according to plan.
Whether you consider Iowa’s U.S. Senate race a toss-up (like the Cook Political Report, the Silver Bulletin, and Fox News), tilting Republican (Inside Elections) or still leaning in Hinson’s direction (Sabato’s Crystal Ball), one fact is undeniable: Hinson and her allies are trying to change the dynamic of the campaign.
Their twofold strategy is to tear down the Democratic nominee, State Representative Josh Turek, while shoring up Hinson’s support with conservatives. And they have good reasons to worry.
Going negative at the Iowa State Fair
The Iowa State Fair offers politicians many opportunities for good exposure, and Hinson did the usual shifts flipping pork burgers and handing out hard-boiled eggs.
But her seven minutes on the Des Moines Register’s Political Soapbox last Monday were revealing. (You can watch here.) After a brief nod to her favorite state fair foods, she shifted to attack mode. She dinged Turek for spending the day “fundraising in Nantucket with the billionaires and the millionaires” and “his boss,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
She called him an “absentee legislator,” citing 261 missed votes in the Iowa House during the 2026 session. She listed a few bills Turek didn’t vote on, such as the appropriations bill that covered the state Department of Veterans Affairs, a wide-ranging agriculture policy bill, and legislation to protect children. Hinson added that Turek took $20,000 in taxpayer-funded per diem payments “while he decided to not show up for work.” (More on the per diems in a moment.)
Hinson then slammed Turek’s votes on bills related to immigration, transgender kids in schools, “against the possibility of teaching about America’s greatness in our classrooms,” and to “make it easier” to raise taxes. All of those characterizations were misleading.
Three and a half minutes into her remarks, Hinson pivoted to where I thought she would begin: introducing herself as a minivan mom and touting her record in Congress. Before long, she returned to her opponent: “You’ve got Nantucket Turek, who is focused on raising your taxes and supporting policies that put parents last, put taxpayers last, and put farmers last here in Iowa. And then you have a bipartisan fighter who has delivered consistently for our great state. Who do you want in the U.S. Senate?”
Some campaign strategists might advise against raising your opponent’s name ID. But as Hinson spoke, Republican operatives stood behind the soapbox, holding a “Josh Turek endorsed by the Nantucket Chamber of Commerce” banner in view of TV cameras.
screenshot from my recording of Hinson’s soapbox speech
The Senate Leadership Fund (a GOP-aligned super PAC) paid for a plane to fly overhead with a “Skipping the State Fair — Turek’s in Nantucket” banner. (They were countering a Democratic-funded banner in the sky that read “Ashley Hinson sold out Iowa to China.”)
To be clear, Turek didn’t “skip” the fair. He was there for two of the first three days and returned on the final Friday.
That same day, Hinson spoke to reporters after her stint with the Iowa Pork Producers. She criticized Turek’s stance on some agricultural policies and reminded the press that the Democrat missed the Iowa House vote on a wide-ranging “farm bill.” Absurdly, she added, “Bottom line here is that if Josh Turek gets his way and is the next United States senator, I think he wants this to be the last year for the Iowa pork tent at the Iowa State Fair, and I don’t think that’s right.”
Reality check: Turek pulled a shift at the pork tent himself on August 21. Earlier this year, he helped draft a package of bills that would have supported farmers and rural communities.
photo first published on Turek’s campaign Facebook page
If private polling didn’t show a competitive race, Hinson probably would not be talking about her opponent at all.
In addition to badmouthing Turek to the press, Hinson’s campaign has been spending to turn voters against the Democrat.
Going negative on the air and online
In competitive U.S. House or Senate races, the division of labor often goes like this: the candidate runs positive advertising, while outside groups orchestrate attacks on the other party’s nominee. I expected Hinson to spend much of the summer introducing herself to Iowans in an upbeat way, since her campaign went into the general election period with far more cash on hand than Turek.
That’s not what happened.
Hinson aired one positive television commercial this year, starting a few weeks before the primary election. This summer, the GOP-aligned group One Nation (a “sister organization” to the Senate Leadership Fund) picked up the task of running favorable ads for Hinson. One Nation plans to spend $11 million on broadcast, cable, satellite, radio, and digital advertising in Iowa. The first spots praised Hinson for working to eliminate the “death tax,” standing up for veterans, and helping Iowa families make ends meet.
With another entity taking care of the positive messages, Hinson’s campaign has paid for several digital or TV ads attacking Turek. The first went up immediately after the Democratic primary in June, and used familiar GOP rhetoric about taxes, immigration, and transgender people. Politifact declared the ad’s claim about sex changes for kids to be “false.”
A new coordinated Republican message appeared in early July, bashing Turek for missing 58 percent of the Iowa House votes during the 2026 legislative session. It’s common for lawmakers seeking higher office to skip more floor debates, especially when they are in a competitive primary. Even so, Republicans are pushing this talking point hard. Last week, the Senate Leadership Fund launched a commercial accusing Turek of only showing up for himself.
The female narrator says, “Turek missed more than half his votes, yet still collected his full taxpayer-funded paycheck.”
As it happens, I looked into per diems in 2022, because some other state legislators had been absent for extended periods. The Iowa House chief clerk told me then that Iowa Code requires her to pay every member’s per diem expenses “for the full session,” even if lawmakers miss days or weeks. Of course, viewers of GOP ads have no way of knowing that.
Hinson’s campaign started airing a new spot last week that asserts, “Liberal Josh Turek doesn’t bother showing up for work. Even worse, he thinks you don’t care.” I couldn’t find the ad on YouTube, but you can watch it here. Viewers see footage of Turek saying at a recent virtual fundraiser, “I ended up missing about 50 percent of the votes in the Iowa legislature this year. I don’t know if that necessarily matters to Iowans.”
Even in unpaid media appearances, Hinson has seemed more interested in driving up Turek’s negatives than building herself up. When a Fox News program interviewed the Republican candidate on August 23, she spent more of the segment criticizing Turek than talking up her own record: “If you don’t show up for work more than 50 percent of the time, you’re not getting a promotion—you’re getting fired.” Hinson shared that clip on her social media feeds. Trump himself recently called Turek “lazy,” a hilarious thing to say about an elite athlete who knocks thousands of doors a year.
Two can play the “missed vote” game
An early move to define the opposition works best when the other candidate has little capacity to respond. That’s not the case in Iowa’s Senate race.
A future post will look at Turek’s messaging in more detail. For now, the key point is that he and his allies are not leaving Hinson’s attacks unanswered.
In late July, Turek released an instant classic digital ad of him playing basketball with President Barack Obama. His campaign is on TV with a 30-second spot highlighting his background as a Paralympian and team player: “In the Senate, I will work with anyone to fight the corruption, clean up Washington, and make them work for us again.”
Turek’s latest ad, which went up on August 19, says the Democrat “voted with Republicans” more than 700 times in the legislature. I haven’t tallied those votes myself, but the total seems plausible. Many bills brought to the Iowa House floor are not controversial, and “non-cons” often pass unanimously or nearly so. The narrator says Republicans call Turek “results oriented,” and he “will work with anyone to clean up corruption and secure the border—including President Trump.”
Meanwhile, the Senate Majority PAC (a super PAC aligned with Senate Democrats) is highlighting Hinson’s own missed votes. This spot, released this morning, is part of a $1.45 million television and digital advertising campaign.
The narrator says, “Here are the facts: it’s Ashley Hinson who’s missed nearly 200 votes in Congress. Votes to crack down on child pornography, reduce crime, and lower health care costs. But Ashley Hinson always shows up for herself. She wrote a law that gives massive tax breaks to her own family’s business and has managed to grow her net worth by up to ten times, $8 million more since she’s been in Washington.”
The ad cites Iowa Starting Line’s reporting on the “tax break that benefits her own fortune” and Heartland Signal on Hinson’s net worth. The statistics on votes come from a recent post on the American Journal News website, a political site designed to look like a news organization. American Journal primarily publishes negative stories about Republican candidates. That post cites Congressional records showing “Hinson has missed 163 committee votes and 33 floor votes since joining the House in 2021. Some of these absences coincide with when she had COVID in January 2022 and April 2026, but the vast majority are unexplained.”
Republicans may counter that these missed votes (mainly on the House Appropriations Committee) were inconsequential. After all, Hinson’s vote wasn’t needed to advance funding to address crime, drug enforcement, exploitation of children, victims’ assistance programs, health care initiatives, data centers, and so on.
The same could be said of every vote Turek missed. As one of 33 Democrats in a 100-member Iowa House, his presence would never decide the outcome on any bill or amendment.
I’m skeptical that the Senate race will turn on missed legislative votes. More likely, it will be a referendum on Donald Trump.
A little distance from Trump
Hinson’s public comments about the president have changed substantially over the past year.
When she rolled out her Senate campaign last September, she promised to be “President Trump’s strongest ally.” But standing on the Des Moines Register’s Political Soapbox stage on August 17, she didn’t mention the president at all—not even while hailing some provisions in last year’s budget reconciliation bill (no tax on tips or overtime, reduced taxes on Social Security), which Trump signed into law.
When she did get around to her record in Congress, Hinson highlighted “bipartisan priorities that are Iowans’ priorities,” such as a stillbirth prevention bill “signed into law by President Biden” and a major veterans’ mental health care bill (also signed by Biden).
Near the end of her soapbox speech, Hinson acknowledged there’s more work to do to lower prescription drug prices and hold big health insurance companies accountable, protect Medicare and Social Security, and stand up for veterans. She promised to work on those issues—but again, didn’t name-check the current president.
Why so shy? Prices for food, gas, and other essentials are way up since 2025, when Hinson predicted Trump would usher in a “golden age for our economy.” Multiple statewide polls indicate Trump’s job approval and favorable ratings are underwater in Iowa.
Shortly before the June primary, Politico reported on audio from one of Hinson’s meet-and-greets. She could be heard telling another person the war in Iran would be “a political liability for us” if it “drags on.”
Speaking of political liabilities, unfortunate news broke while Hinson was at the state fair on August 21. In a ploy to lower food costs before the November election, Trump announced plans to allow more ground beef imports, without tariffs, for the next 90 days. Turek slammed the decision as “yet another blow to Iowa farmers and beef producers,” who have already received “just one gut punch after another” from the Trump administration.
Hinson told reporters that importing more beef was “a bad idea,” and she would try to get it reversed. “We grow the highest quality beef here in Iowa, and so, absolutely, I’ll be advocating to the administration because I think we need to be focusing on growing the herd the right way and protecting our cattlemen.”
She can’t go too far in criticizing the president, though, after several cabinet members just came to Iowa to help her out.
Help from Washington, D.C.
If the public polling didn’t convince you Iowa Republicans are worried about the coming elections, here’s another tell: at least nine senior Trump administration officials have visited Iowa over the past two weeks. Some have headlined campaign events (Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for U.S. Representative Zach Nunn, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Zach Lahn).
Hinson has appeared alongside cabinet members who were ostensibly here on official business. Their presence generated media coverage that could only be helpful to her Senate campaign.
Here’s Hinson with Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins at the Iowa Veterans Home in Marshalltown on August 18.
VA Secretary Doug Collins with Hinson at the Iowa Veterans Home on August 18 (photo published on Hinson’s official Facebook page)
Hinson spent some time at the state fair with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler.
From left: Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Hinson, Nunn, SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler, Senator Chuck Grassley (photo from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative‘s official Facebook page)
Prominent Republicans from outside the administration are lending a hand too. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas campaigned with Hinson in July and will be back this coming weekend, as a featured speaker at her “BBQ Bash” fundraiser.
Normally, a nominee would be pivoting to the center at this stage, not bringing a far-right Texas senator to town less than 70 days before an election. On the other hand, Cruz did win the 2016 Iowa GOP caucuses, thanks to social conservatives. And Hinson apparently still needs help mobilizing some loyal Republicans.
Trouble on the right flank
The Washington Post reported in July, “Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base […].” The conservative super PAC Americans for Prosperity Action has found, “The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections […].”
Iowa is among the states where AFP Action is concerned that GOP base voters may stay home or support Democratic candidates, the Post reported. “This new issue with the base adds to the party’s more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections.”
I’ve written at length about the GOP’s large voter registration advantage in Iowa. An enthusiasm gap could go a long way toward countering that, especially if independent voters break toward Democrats in key races. The Iowa Democratic Party has built the strongest field organization seen here since Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012.
Hinson is a solid candidate. As a state lawmaker seeking re-election in 2018, she outperformed then U.S. Representative Rod Blum in every precinct and was the only Iowa House Republican to win re-election in a district that had voted for Hillary Clinton for president and Fred Hubbell for governor.
So why might some GOP base voters not be wild about her becoming a senator? Some traditional Republicans may find her current incarnation too Trumpy. Conversely, some of the MAGA contingent may hold grudges over her vote to certify the 2020 presidential election, or her failure to endorse Trump in 2024 until after the Iowa caucuses.
Former State Senator Jim Carlin, who’s about as MAGA as a person can be, competed against Hinson this year and received just under 26 percent of the vote in the GOP primary. Carlin wrote an open letter to his supporters in June, stating in part,
We do not owe blind loyalty to any political party. Votes should be earned, not assumed. If those asking for our support continually betray the values they campaign on, then we have every right — and perhaps even a duty — to withhold that support until representation becomes genuine again.
So let me be direct: I cannot in good conscience ask you to vote for Ashley Hinson. She does not share our values and a Republican label is not enough. It has never been enough. And until our party understands that our votes must be earned, not assumed, nothing will change.The establishment counts on voters believing they have nowhere else to go. But when citizens stand together and refuse to reward deception, empty promises, and managed decline, real political leverage begins to return to the people.
No doubt the vast majority of Carlin’s 53,196 voters will come home to Hinson. But crucially, the holdouts do have somewhere else to go.
Libertarian challenges the “false narrative”
Republicans couldn’t find any grounds to challenge Libertarian Thomas Laehn’s nomination for Senate. Based on recent election cycles in Iowa, we would expect a third-party candidate on the ballot to receive around 2 percent of the vote. I believe Laehn could do a bit better, for a few reasons.
The proposed Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline is hugely unpopular in rural Iowa. Laehn calls it “the biggest boondoggle in the history of our state” and has made “the abuse of eminent domain” a central theme of his campaign. Hinson avoided taking a stand on the pipeline for years. Bruce Rastetter, a leading figure behind Summit Carbon Solutions, has donated to her campaign and is helping her raise money from other big donors. This issue likely drove a lot of voters to Carlin in the Senate GOP primary.
Laehn’s campaign has raised little money, but has a creative social media strategy. His videos have portrayed Hinson as corrupt and beholden to major donors like Rastetter. He describes himself as “the true conservative” in the Senate race: pro-life, for free markets, for preserving the republic, and against tax credits that incentivize taking private property.
While Laehn has also called out Turek for missing legislative votes and being beholden to Democratic Party leaders, he has directed more fire toward Hinson.
I caught up with former U.S. Representative Steve King at the Iowa State Fair on August 14. Because he’s been active in efforts to stop the CO2 pipeline, I asked him why conservatives who believe in private property rights should back Hinson (who takes campaign contributions from Rastetter) instead of Laehn. He acknowledged it was a “legitimate and tough question.” But in his view, the only two outcomes are a Republican or a Democrat winning the Senate race. A Libertarian would be a spoiler, and as a Republican, he can’t vote for a spoiler.
The next day, I asked Laehn to react to King’s comments. “There is no conservative party in Washington, D.C.,” he said. “Both parties are propagating this false narrative that on election day, you have to choose between two evils, and if you want to stop the greater evil, you better vote for the lesser evil.” Laehn believes, “As long as we keep doing that, we are perpetuating an evil system.”
That message could attract conservatives who oppose the pipeline and are wary of Hinson but would never vote for a Democrat. Even an extra 1 or 2 percent could be important, lowering the share of the vote Turek needs to win.
Final point: the U.S. Senate race will be at the top of every Iowa ballot. I suspect some GOP voters may accidentally check the box for Thomas Laehn, intending to vote for the Republican candidate for governor, Zach Lahn. (Both surnames are pronounced “LANE.”) That may not be a large number —perhaps only a fraction of a percent. But in a close election, any small shift could be impactful.
And a word to the conspiracy-minded: this potential confusion over surnames was not a Democratic dirty trick or genius stroke of candidate recruitment. Thomas Laehn won his first county attorney election in 2018 and began exploring a U.S. Senate bid in 2024. He formally kicked off his campaign in October 2025—weeks before Zach Lahn, who was virtually unknown to Iowans, announced he was running for governor.
Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread.
Top image of Ashley Hinson is a screenshot from her gaggle with reporters at the Iowa State Fair on August 17. Top image of Josh Turek is cropped from a photo taken during the Meskwaki Nation Powwow, first published on his campaign’s Facebook page on August 12.