Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column. This essay first appeared on Substack.

As I write this column, the United States government is still shut down. Federal employees are not getting paid.

No, wait, that’s not quite true. Most federal employees are not getting paid.

Who’s still receiving a paycheck?

That would be President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, members of Congress, and federal judges. The Constitution requires that they be paid no matter what. Their staffs—and those amount to many thousands of people—are continuing to work, but without receiving their salaries. They’ll be entitled to their back pay once the government reopens.

A new Iowa poll is testing messages about a $4,000 tax credit to help families cover “approved education expenses,” and suggests that approach may save taxpayer money currently spent on children enrolled in public schools.

It’s not clear who commissioned the text survey, which has been in the field in recent days. The questionnaire points to Randy Feenstra’s campaign for governor, which is technically still in the “exploratory” phase, or some entity planning to support Feenstra for governor. Many of the questions use preferred Republican frames (“education freedom,” parental choice, “limiting government overreach”). The poll asks how important it is for Iowa’s next governor to “work to improve K-12 education,” and tests only one potential match-up: Randy Feenstra vs. Rob Sand. (Last month, Bleeding Heartland covered a different poll testing messages about Feenstra and Sand.)

Homeschoolers are an important Republican constituency, especially among social conservatives. Families who send their kids to private schools—almost all of which are Christian or Catholic—would also welcome an education tax credit, in addition to the taxpayer assistance they already receive through Iowa’s school voucher program (“education savings accounts”).

Feenstra has good reason to search for ways to shore up his support with the “education freedom” crowd. His underwhelming victory over a little-known 2024 primary challenger highlighted troubles on his right flank. He is unpopular among property rights activists who oppose the use of eminent domain to build Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed CO2 pipeline. He has skipped forums involving other Republican candidates for governor, including an Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event in July. Feenstra’s exploratory committee has the resources to pay for opinion research.

A recent poll of “likely Republican voters,” conducted by American Viewpoint, found Feenstra “in a commanding position,” with 41 percent support in the governor’s race and no other GOP candidate above 5 percent. A cautionary note: American Viewpoint’s polls for Feenstra’s U.S. House campaign found the incumbent with a roughly 50-point lead over challenger Kevin Virgil before the 2024 GOP primary. Feenstra ended up winning the nomination in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district by a margin of 60.1 percent to 39.4 percent.

A pair of recent polls have tried to gauge how the arrest of then Des Moines Superintendent Ian Roberts could affect Iowa’s U.S. Senate race.

One text survey, which was in the field this past week, seeks to determine how much respondents have heard about the incident, who “bears the most responsibility” for the situation, and whether the Roberts controversy gives respondents concerns about Des Moines School Board President Jackie Norris, who is one of the Democrats running for Senate. A different version of the survey tests another negative message about Norris’ past political work and support for “radical DEI policies” on the school board.

Staff for Norris did not respond to inquiries about the survey, but the question wording (enclosed in full below) strongly suggests the Norris campaign commissioned it. Notably, the poll tests U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (the Republican front-runner) against Norris twice, and Hinson against State Representative Josh Turek once, but does not ask respondents about their preference between Hinson and either State Senator Zach Wahls or Iraq War veteran Nathan Sage. It also tests messages about Norris, but not about any other Democratic candidate.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the main campaign arm of U.S. Senate Republicans, commissioned a separate poll of 579 “Democratic primary voters via text-to-web surveys” on September 29 and 30, a few days after Roberts’ arrest. The NRSC has not released full results from that poll, the questionnaire, or the screen used to identify “Democratic primary voters.” Jennie Taer published a few findings in an article on the conservative website The Daily Wire.

“The system is broken,” declared Libertarian Thomas Laehn as he kicked off his U.S. Senate campaign on October 11.

The Greene County attorney, who became the first Libertarian elected to a partisan office in Iowa in 2018, styled his case against two-party governance as a two-count “indictment” of the 535 members of Congress.

One of his central arguments could appeal to many disaffected Republicans.

It’s been a wildly successful week for U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.

Three days after U.S. Senator Joni Ernst confirmed she won’t seek re-election, the three-term member of Congress all but wrapped up the Republican nomination for Iowa’s Senate seat. President Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” shut the door on any realistic chance Hinson could lose the June 2026 primary.

But Hinson’s embrace of the Washington establishment could alienate a segment of Republicans she will need after the primary. And her slavish allegiance to Trump could become a liability for the likely nominee in the general election campaign.

Taylor Kohn is an Iowan advocate and publicist currently residing in Minnesota.

On the first day of Rob Sand’s campaign for governor, he gave an interview to WHO Radio. When the host Simon Conway asked whether trans girls should be allowed to play sports, Sand replied with a flat “no.”

The comment was poorly received by many, prompting the Des Moines Register to reach out to Sand for an interview on the subject. Sand declined, instead providing a statement doubling down on his exclusionary stance: “I’ve been clear that I support common sense policies like the law protecting fairness in women’s sports, and that this year’s law legalizing discrimination in all places of life is wrong.”

It is, of course, dishonest to say in the same breath that one opposes discrimination and that a certain type of discrimination is “common sense.”

Politico set off another round of speculation about U.S. Senator Joni Ernst’s future this week. Jordain Carney and Rachael Bade reported on July 10 that Ernst “is the next GOP senator on retirement watch,” with U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) “waiting in the wings” if the incumbent opts not to seek a third term.

Hinson brushed off the rumors, telling WHO Radio host Simon Conway she’s “100 percent on Team Joni” and hopes Ernst will run again. She added, “The DC media loves to obsess over things.” Notably, Hinson didn’t clarify whether she would run for Senate next year if the seat were open—nor did Conway ask her.

I’ve long believed Hinson is laying the groundwork to run for Senate as soon as Iowa has an open seat—presumably in 2028, when Senator Chuck Grassley’s eighth term will end.

So while I still expect Ernst to seek re-election, the latest coverage got me thinking: who would be the tougher opponent for the Democratic nominee in 2026? It’s usually harder to defeat an incumbent than to flip an open seat. But this race might be the exception that proves the rule.

Iowa’s 2026 U.S. Senate race had its first viral moment on May 30, when an unscripted comment from Senator Joni Ernst generated massive coverage across Iowa and national news outlets.

The words Ernst blurted out in frustration at that town hall meeting may or may not have staying power in the next Senate campaign.

But we’ll definitely keep hearing what the senator said before and after making that gaffe. Republicans around the country, including Iowa’s U.S. House members, have used the same false claims in defense of the budget reconciliation bill now pending in the Senate.

Those statements were among more than a dozen messages about Medicaid and the federal food assistance program known as SNAP that Republicans tested this spring in telephone polls. I was a respondent for one of the surveys in early May and have transcribed the questionnaire at the end of this post.

I don’t know which GOP-aligned entity paid for the robo-poll I received, but it’s clear the memo on how to spin deep Medicaid and SNAP cuts has gone out to all Republicans in Congress.

More than a year before Iowa’s 2026 primary election, Democrats already have one announced candidate for U.S. Senate (Nathan Sage) and two officially running for the U.S. House (Travis Terrell in the first district and Kevin Techau in the second). More Democrats will launch campaigns for Iowa’s statewide and federal offices in the coming months.

So it’s a good time to preview how this website will cover the next round of Iowa Democratic primaries.

GUIDELINES FOR MY OWN REPORTING

First, I don’t plan to endorse a contender in any competitive Democratic primary. My goal is to produce in-depth reporting on the major races, with details about the candidates and the political landscape that readers may not find in other media outlets.

Second, my coverage will focus on candidates with the capacity to run a credible statewide or district-wide campaign. I don’t mean just front-runners; plenty of little-known candidates have built a following and eventually won the nomination for a major office. I mean that when deciding where to spend my time and energy on individual candidate profiles or surveys of the primary field, I will be looking for signs that a candidate is doing the work this kind of campaign requires.

“The working class has been working their ass off every day to survive and make ends meet for their families,” Nathan Sage told me this week. Making working people’s lives better is the driving force of his U.S. Senate campaign.

At least four Democrats are thinking seriously about running against two-term Republican incumbent Joni Ernst. Sage was the first to make it official, on April 16.

Sage discussed his background, beliefs, and reasons for running in an interview with Bleeding Heartland the day before his campaign launch. The full video of our exchange is at the end of this post.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

Many politicians can persuade you to believe in them. That’s a commonly reached feat. But the defining leaders, elected officials like Tom Harkin, Robert Ray, Henry Wallace, and Harold Hughes, are able to summon the inspiration to get Iowans believing in themselves, their own worth and futures.

More than any other contemporary active Democrat, State Representative Josh Turek has the potential to earn the mantle in the ongoing—and now desperately needed—legacy those Iowans with surpassing public-mindedness built.

We are in an era in the United States that can be described as The Great Deconstruction. We are broken. The anger in the streets at “Hands Off!” protests and in other arenas, in real life and online, is fierce and urgent. Soon, and at a more accelerated political pace than is traditional, Democrats will begin vetting candidates for the U.S. Senate race in 2026, a contest with the politically formidable Joni Ernst. The two-term Republican senator has a rare cultural connectivity; her journey as a farm girl and combat veteran carries enormous appeal across the state.

UPDATE: Wahls formally launched his Senate bid on June 11. You can watch his interview with Laura Belin about the campaign here. Original post follows.

Dave Price had the scoop for Gray Media on March 28: State Senator Zach Wahls is “certainly listening” to those who have encouraged him to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Wahls is the first Democrat to publicly express interest in this race. Two-term Senator Joni Ernst has not formally launched her re-election campaign but is widely expected to seek a third term.

Wahls told Price he will decide whether to run for higher office after the Iowa legislative session. But he’s already criticizing Ernst, most recently in a March 26 news release that tied the senator to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “reckless mishandling of military plans” in a Signal group chat.

“You suck, Joni! That’s just the nicest way I can summarize how we’re all feeling about your reign so far,” says Joshua Smith in the first digital ad promoting his Republican campaign for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat.

The video previews what will be an aggressive campaign by Senator Joni Ernst’s 2026 primary challenger from the right.

UPDATE: Smith fleshed out his message against the incumbent in a digital ad launched on December 31. Original post follows.

Senator Joni Ernst has her first declared 2026 primary challenger. Joshua Smith announced on X/Twitter on December 5 that he plans to run against Ernst as a Republican in 2026. The “blue-collar, working-class veteran” and father of seven promised he would be “the most pro-life, pro-family, small government candidate running for a federal office” next cycle.

So far, Smith’s campaign looks more like a bid for online engagement than a serious threat to Ernst’s career. But in a December 9 telephone interview, he explained why he’s confident he can build a strong GOP primary campaign.

MAGA activists are increasingly unhappy with U.S. Senator Joni Ernst and looking for someone to run against her in Iowa’s 2026 Senate primary.

If conservatives aren’t able to stop Ernst from winning the nomination, they may have a place to park their protest votes in the general election. Libertarian Thomas Laehn again confirmed to Bleeding Heartland he’s seriously considering a Senate bid.

Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn, who was the first Libertarian elected to partisan office in Iowa, is considering a bid for U.S. Senate in 2026.

The Thomas Laehn Exploratory Committee filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission in December, but the committee’s campaign website, Laehn4Iowa.org, was just launched in late July.

Laehn spoke to Bleeding Heartland by phone last month about why he may run for Senate and what factors will influence his decision.

“It’s time to put Donald J. Trump back in the White House and restore the future of our country for hardworking Americans!” U.S. Senator Joni Ernst posted on social media on the first day of the Republican National Convention.

Iowa’s junior senator kept busy in Milwaukee, participating in several panel discussions or events arranged by conservative groups, and praising Trump in podcast or television interviews. She appeared at some Iowa GOP functions (though she wasn’t one of our state’s RNC delegates) and honored Trump’s campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita.

But Ernst’s status has diminished since the last time her party nominated Trump for the presidency. She was among a small group of politicians passed over as RNC speakers this year, after giving prime-time addresses at both the 2016 and 2020 conventions.

A rift with team Trump could jeopardize Ernst’s hope to move up another notch in Senate leadership after the November election. It could also inspire a MAGA challenger to run in the GOP primary when the senator seeks a third term in 2026.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

Two-term U.S. Senator Joni Ernst, a Red Oak Republican and the first female combat veteran to serve in the Senate, said on May 29 that she will seek a third term in 2026.

In an interview in Carroll with Iowa Mercury and the Carroll Times Herald following an economic-development event, Ernst, 53, left the door open to a possible cabinet position in a second Trump administration if the former president prevails in November. Trump vetted Ernst in the 2016 cycle as a possible vice presidential running mate.

Asked directly if she planned to seek re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2026, and to rate her likelihood on a scale of 1 to 10 for a third-term bid (with 10 being most likely) Ernst said, “That is my intent. So I would say, yes, 10 very likely. I love representing the people of Iowa, and it really has been a very fulfilling position for me to be able to fight for rural America. Of course, important to me as well are our veterans and Armed Services.”

Ernst said she would wait until after the 2024 election cycle to get a “little closer” to 2026 before announcing.