Counting error may have given Romney Iowa caucus victory (updated)

Wow... (0.00 / 0)

So very embarrassing if true........this is a shocking report with potentially severe ramifications......

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by: mirage @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 02:58:45 AM UTC

I wouldn't say "shocking" (0.00 / 0)

When hundreds of people are reporting results from the precincts, it's not hard to see how one number from one location could be written down incorrectly. I'm sure this kind of tabulation error has happened in every caucus year, but we've never had such a narrow margin between the top two candidates.

Systematic inflation of one candidate's vote total across many precincts would shock me.  

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 03:01:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

my first thought (0.00 / 0)

from Tuesday night
"I used to say three things could kill the caucuses: a Screw Iowa candidate winning the presidency, an ice storm, or an ADA (or military) lawsuit demanding an absentee ballot. So... what does a dead heat result do? I don't care whether Santorum or Mitt wins; I care about 2016... And there's not really a recount process for what's really just a straw poll at a party meeting."

Later that night:

"One typo in one spreadsheet, one transposed digit, could flip this thing as the GOP checks the paperwork. By that point the national press and candidates will be in Nevada and South Carolina and it won't matter."

Or maybe it will.

A real election has the recourse of a recount. A privately run "election" doesn't. These results belong to the RPI, and the courts have given political parties wide latitude in their nomination process and internal activities.

And in fairness, having worked on real elections for many years, it's not RPI's fault that the result was close. And it's only a little bit RPI's fault that a volunteer made a mistake.

But national press won't see that distinction, they'll just say "Iowa screwed up an election (sic)." No doubt they'll invite Stephen Bloom on to critique our IQs.

I'm not feeling any schadenfreude for Matt Strawn and his people now. I'm hoping they get it right. Because my first place in line in the 2016 Democratic race depends on the RPI getting it right.

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by: jdeeth @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 03:40:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

even with a few tabulation errors (4.00 / 2)

the Iowa Republican results more closely reflect caucus-goers' sentiments than Iowa Democratic caucus results ever have done or ever will do.

We don't know how many people preferred Dodd, Biden or Richardson over the big three from 2008, and we don't know whether Edwards or Clinton had more people standing in their corners after realignment. Democrats play games with delegate math that can severely distort the preferences of the real, live people in the room.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 03:52:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's right. (0.00 / 0)

I completely agree.

But the unelected New Hampshire Secretary of State says that if we have a hard body count that's linked to a binding delegate count, that makes it an election not a caucus, and he'll vote on Halloween if he has to to be the first "election."

And the national press will side with him because they hate hate HATE flying out to Des Moines and driving two hours to Polebean Center, when Manchester is a short commuter flight from NY and DC and everything else is within 30 miles.

We can have a body count and absentee ballots.

Or we can be first.

And understand that if we're not first, we'll never see a candidate again. No more county party barbecues with five candidates. No more living room Q and A, No more extended conversations. Maybe an airport rally, and a handshake if you can bully to the front of the rope line. We'll be voting in a meaningless June primary between Presumptive Nominee and Lyndon LaRouche.

But at least we'll have a hard body count for LaRouche.

Your call as to what you think is more important. Me, I think the important part of the caucuses is the year before more than the night itself.

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by: jdeeth @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 04:28:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

the unelected NH SoS (0.00 / 0)

has no problem with the Iowa Republican format, which is basically a straw poll. I would rather adopt the GOP procedures for the Democratic caucus. I don't understand why that would be a deal-breaker for NH when the guy doesn't have a problem with the Iowa GOP caucus.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 04:37:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So start with a meaningless vote... (0.00 / 0)

then pick delegates how? All the JFK people say "yay we won" and go home, and the Harry Truman people who "lost" stay and elect the delegates? (Dead presidents used for pure neutrality) Because you know that happens at GOP caucuses, in fact I think they were supposed to talk about it at the Ron Paul training I got thrown out of.

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by: jdeeth @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 04:45:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

how is that meaningless? (0.00 / 0)

The paper ballots reflect the preferences of the people who showed up at the GOP precinct caucuses. Isn't that what we want to know, which candidates Iowans support?

How is it meaningful when a Democratic caucus can allocate equal numbers of delegates to several candidates, even if some had significantly more supporters in the room than others?

Why are you so offended by the idea of diehards sticking around to elect county convention delegates after most people go home? It's not as if the county delegates elected at Democratic precinct caucuses are bound to stick with their candidate at the county conventions.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 05:28:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

misunderstood=meaningless (0.00 / 0)

National press just doesn't get that the IA GOP "vote" has NO CONNECTION to the delegate count. Good lord, I'm sitting at home at 1 AM caucus night sending corrective tweets out to national press who are trying to figure out "the delegate count." Who won that? Ron Paul probably. The IA GOP result pretends to be something it's not.

In any case you're being clear about what you want. What I want is to stay first no matter what. Any major changes to process put first at risk IMHO.

The national press and large chunks of the national party hate us. Kos still hasn't forgiven us for spiking Howard Dean and Carl Levin is just itching for any chance to topple us. Even former ally New Hampshire barely tolerates us. And don't even get me started on Florida...  

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by: jdeeth @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 07:18:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

guilty as charged (0.00 / 0)

I think that tabulated results from the first presidential nominating contest should reflect the sentiments of voters.

Additionally, I think that voters who want to participate in the first presidential nominating contest should not be excluded because they work the evening shift, or are housebound for any reason, or prefer not to state their political preferences in front of a room full of people.

Yes, I believe those principles are more important than you getting to see candidates on the ped mall or at the Hamburg Inn.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Jan 07, 2012 at 16:01:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One more thing: (0.00 / 0)

I got thrown out of the Ron Paul training.

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by: jdeeth @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 07:18:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

and did I mention (4.00 / 1)

that I got thrown out of the Ron Paul training? Because I really can't say that enough. I got thrown out of the Ron Paul training.

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by: jdeeth @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 04:49:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You show up at a RP event wearing a friggin' beret? (3.00 / 1)

Well, whaddya expect?   I wore the NRA hat some jackwad shoved in my face at the Ames Straw Poll.  They loved me.

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by: IowanbyBirth @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 01:26:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Strawn says: (0.00 / 0)

"Iowa GOP rules provide for a two-week certification process for each of the 1,774 precincts.  The Iowa GOP will announce the final, certified results of the 2012 Iowa Causes following this process. Out of respect to the candidates involved, party officials we will not respond to every rumor, innuendo or allegation during the two week process.  That said, Iowa GOP officials have been in contact with Appanoose County Republican officials tonight and do not have any reason to believe the final, certified results of Appanoose County will change the outcome of Tuesday's vote."

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by: jdeeth @ Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 04:39:35 AM UTC