Enter Bleeding Heartland's 2010 election prediction contest

It’s time for political junkies in the Bleeding Heartland community to make their best guesses about what will happen next Tuesday. Twenty questions about this year’s elections in Iowa are after the jump. To enter the contest, post your predictions in this thread before 7 am on November 2. Remember, percentages don’t always have to add up to 100 percent; several contests feature minor-party candidates.

The contest winner will receive no prize, just bragging rights for being the the Bleeding Heartland community’s most astute observer of Iowa politics in 2010. Can you match American007’s performance in 2008 or ModerateIADem’s prowess in this year’s primary election contest?  

1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in this year’s general election? For reference, 1,044,459 ballots were cast in Iowa in November 2006.

2. What percentage of the vote will Chet Culver and Terry Branstad receive in the governor’s race?

3. Which minor-party candidate will receive more votes for governor: Libertarian Eric Cooper or Iowa Party candidate Jonathan Narcisse?

4. What percentage of the vote will Chuck Grassley and Roxanne Conlin receive in the U.S. Senate race?

5. What percentage of the vote will Bruce Braley and Ben Lange receive in the first Congressional district?

6. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in the second Congressional district?

7. What percentage of the vote will Leonard Boswell and Brad Zaun receive in the third Congressional district?

8. What percentage of the vote will Tom Latham and Bill Maske receive in the fourth Congressional district?

9. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Matt Campbell receive in the fifth Congressional district?

10. How many Democrats and Republicans will be elected to the U.S. House of Representatives? (current numbers: 255 Democrats, 178 Republicans, 2 vacancies)

11. How many Democrats and Republicans will be elected to the U.S. Senate? (current numbers: 41 Republicans, 57 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with Democrats)

12. How many Democrats and Republicans will be elected to the Iowa House? (current numbers: 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans)

13. How many Democrats and Republicans will be elected to the Iowa Senate? (current numbers: 32 Democrats and 18 Republicans)

14. What percentage of the vote will Tom Miller and Brenna Findley receive in the attorney general race?

15. What percentage of the vote will Michael Mauro and Matt Schultz receive in the secretary of state race?

16. What percentage of the vote will Michael Fitzgerald and Dave Jamison receive in the state treasurer race?

17. What percentage of the vote will Bill Northey and Francis Thicke receive in the secretary of agriculture race?

18. What percentage of the vote will David Vaudt and Jon Murphy receive in the state auditor race?

19. What percentage of “yes” votes on retention will Supreme Court Justices Marsha Ternus, Michael Streit and David Baker receive? (you do not have to guess the same number for all three judges)

20. What percentage of “yes” votes will there be on the ballot measure relating to a constitutional convention?

NOTE: A few Bleeding Heartland readers have had trouble posting comments recently. If you are unable to post your predictions in this thread, try clearing the cache in your browser. If that doesn’t solve the problem, try upgrading to Internet Explorer 9 or switching to a different browser (Chrome, Firefox, Safari).

  • AGreatAmerican's Predictions

    1. 1,069,394

    2. Branstad 54, Culver 43

    3. Cooper (barely)

    4. Grassley 63, Conlin 36

    5. Lange 51, Braley 49

    6. Miller-Meeks 49, Loebsack 48

    7. Boswell 54, Zaun 46

    8. Latham 65, Maske 35

    9. King 61, Campbell 39

    10. 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats

    11. 48 Republicans, 50 Democrats, 2 Independents

    12. 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats

    13. 23 Republicans, 27 Democrats

    14. 48 Miller, 52 Findley

    15. 51 Mauro, 48 Schultz

    16. 55 Fitzgerald, 45 Jamison

    17. 62 Northey, 38 Thicke

    18. 60 Vaudt, 40 Murphy

    19. Ternus 54 Yes, Streit 53 Yes, Baker 53 Yes

    20. No – 55, Yes 45

  • hoping for these...

    only think all of this will happen because i keep reading how pollsters are leaving out cell phone users who are much more likely to vote Democrat. When the cell phone users are added to polls the Democrats jump several points.  

    1. 1,100,393

    2. Chet Culver – 48%, Terry Branstad – 47% Other – 5%

    3. Narcisse

    4. Grassley – 58% Conlin – 42%

    5. Braley – 55% Lange – 45%

    6. Loebsack – 53% Miller-Meeks – 47%

    7. Boswell – 57$ Zaun – 43%

    8. Latham – 57% Maske – 43%

    9. King – 59% Campbell – 41%

    10. Democrats – 220  Republicans – 215

    11. Democrats – 51  Republicans – 47 Independents – 2

    12. Democrats 53 Republicans 47

    13. Democrats – 29 Republicans – 21

    14. Miller – 52%   Findley – 48%

    15. Mauro – 55%  Schultz – 45%

    16. Fitzgerald – 57%  Jamison – 43%

    17. Northey – 55%   Thicke – 45%

    18. Vaudt – 60%  Murphy – 40%

    19. Ternus – 51%; Streit & Baker – 55%

    20. 41%  

  • Predictions

    We should predict individual Senate races throughout the country too.  Just a suggestion.

    1) 1,089,876

    2) Branstad 51 Culver 42 Others 7

    3) Narcisse

    4) Grassley 59 Conlin 40

    5) Lange 51 Braley 49

    6) Loebsack 49 Miller-Meeks 48

    7) Boswell 51 Zaun 49

    8) Latham 63 Maske 37

    9) King 61 Campbell 39

    10) GOP 230 Dem 205

    11) GOP 48 Dem 52

    12) GOP 54 Dem 46

    13) GOP 23 Dem 27

    14) Findley 51 Miller 49

    15) Schultz 49 Mauro 49

    16) Fitzgerald 51 Jamison 49

    17) Northey 56 Thicke 44

    18) Vaudt 60 Murphy 40

    19) Ternus 48 Streit 52 Baker 52 Yes

    20) 41 Yes

    • feel free to add any predictions

      about some of the tossup U.S. Senate races around the country. I thought I was pushing it with a 20-question contest!

      I think Sestak, Reid, Boxer, and Murray will win, and Feingold will lose. Don’t know what to think about IL-Sen or CO-Sen. More of the undecideds in Illinois are Democrats, so that should help Alexi, but he seems like a very weak candidate.

  • I shouldn't participate regarding specific candidates

    but I’ll make some guesses on aggregate numbers.

    1. Total votes: 1,110,000

    10. U.S. House: 232 Republican 203 Democrat – I think there are too many competitive seats to really put a solid number on this.  I could see this being 6 seats higher or lower than my prediction.  Who really knows how big the Republican wave will be?  I think anyone who thinks the Democrats will keep the House suffers from serious bias.  Too much money is being spent by 501(c)(4)s to lose in my opinion.  Accept the loss.  Lick the wounds and remember that you will gain seats in 2012 and probably hold onto the presidency.

    11. U.S. Senate: 49 Republican 51 Democrat – I think 48 is more realistic, but I am hoping for an extra victory.

    12. Iowa House: 55 Republican 45 Democrat – This could potentially get as high as 56, but I think 54 is more realistic.

    13. Iowa Senate: 23 Republican 27 Democrat – I’m hoping for 24.

    19. No prediction here but I think all three could get knocked off.  It wouldn’t surprise me if it turned out 1-2 or 2-1.

    20. 43% Yes

    Note: On 10,11, and 12 I decided to take the risk and predict some numbers that might be higher than what is realistic.  Heck, this is a competition, right?  Why not take the risk?

  • predictions

    predictions just based on what I’m reading, it’s more than 5 years that I left Iowa and the US. Trying to follow Iowa politics from Germany though

    1. 1,178,838

    2. Branstad 56, Culver 41

    3. Narcisse

    4. Grassley 64, Conlin 34

    5. Lange 48, Braley 52

    6. Miller-Meeks 48, Loebsack 49

    7. Boswell 54, Zaun 46

    8. Latham 64, Maske 34

    9. King 62, Campbell 37

    10. 235 Republicans, 200 Democrats

    11. 48 Republicans, 50 Democrats, 2 Independents

    12. 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats

    13. 24 Republicans, 26 Democrats

    14. 49 Miller, 51 Findley

    15. 53 Mauro, 47 Schultz

    16. 51 Fitzgerald, 49 Jamison

    17. 60 Northey, 39 Thicke

    18. 56 Vaudt, 43 Murphy

    19. Ternus 56 Yes, Streit 55 Yes, Baker 56 Yes

    20. No – 57, Yes 43

  • Predictions

    I know they are a bit out of order, but I think I got them all.

    1.1,057,237

    2.Branstad:  53 Culver: 46 Others: 1

    3.  Cooper

    4.  Braley:  55 Lange: 45

    5. Loebsack: 52 MMM: 48

    6.  Grassley:  56 Conlin:  43  Others: 1

    7.  Boswell:  51 Zaun:  49

    8.  Latham: 63 Maske: 37

    9.  King:  61 Campbell: 39

    10.  D:  221 R: 214 (What is that a Net of 36, seems low, but I think some of my Blue Dogs will be able to get by)

    11.  R: 47 D: 51 I:  2  (with the candidates they gave us in Nevada, Kentucky, CO, PA, IN, etc. there should have been more D holds)  My guess is we somehow hold one of the seats I listed above and lose Illinois.  Alexi’s a joke.

    12.  D:  52  R: 48 (Keep your fingers crossed that a rising star like McKinley Bailey doesn’t go down in a wave)

    13.  D:  28 R:  22

    14.  Miller:  52 Finley: 48

    15.  Mauro:  53 Schultz: 47

    16.  Fitzgerald: 51 Jamison: 49

    17.  Northey: 56 Thicke: 44

    18. Vaudt: 57 Murphy: 43

    19.  I think all of the judges will 53 percent or there abouts.

    20. 46 percent yes  54:  No

     

    • for some reason

      Democrats seem less concerned about McKinley Bailey than about many other House incumbents. I get the impression Stew Iverson isn’t well-liked. I also thought it was telling that the Farm Bureau didn’t endorse in that race and the ABI PAC endorsed Bailey. That’s not to say he couldn’t go down in a wave, but if that happens we’ll have already lost the Iowa House.

  • frogmanjim

    1. 999,000

    2. Culver 46 Branstad 52

    3. Libertarian Eric Cooper

    4. Grassley 57 Conlin 42

    5. Braley 55 Lange 44

    6. Loebsack 53 Miller-Meeks 45

    7. Boswell 54 Zaun 45

    8. Latham 58  Maske 41

    9. King 63 Campbell 35

    10. 225 Democrats, 208 Republicans

    11. 46 Republicans, 52 Democrats, 2 independents

    12. 53 Democrats 47 Republicans

    13. 29 Democrats and 21 Republicans

    14. Miller 62 Findley 37

    15. Mauro 55 Schultz 45

    16. Fitzgerald 51 Jamison 49

    17.  Northey 57 Thicke 43

    18. Vaudt 53 Murphy 46

    19. Ternus 53 Streit 54 Baker  56

    20. 52 Yes

  • Warm up the crystal ball...

    I’ll admit, I haven’t been following things as closely as I should, but here goes:

    1. 1,060,000

    2. Branstad 54, Culver 41, Narcisse 3

    3. Narcisse

    4. Grassley 59, Conlin 39

    5. Braley 55 Lange 42

    6. Loebsack 53 MMM 45

    7. Boswell 50 Zaun 48 (This is going to be the one to watch.)

    8. Latham 60 Maske 39

    9. King 65 Campbell 32

    10. 208 Dems 227 Repubs

    11. 52 Dems 48 Repubs

    12. 50 Dems 50 Repubs

    13. 28 Dems 22 Repubs

    14. Miller 53 Findley 47

    15. Mauro 56 Schultz 44

    16. Fitzgerald 57 Jamison 43

    17. Northey 55 Thicke 45

    18. Vaudt 60 Murphy 39

    19  Ternus YES 48 NO 52

        Streit YES 51 NO 49

        Baker  YES 51 NO 49

    20. Con. Amendment Vote

       YES 41 NO 59

    21. Land Water Legacy Vote

       YES 54 NO 46

  • Trhawk's predictions

    1. 1,200,000

    2. 53% Branstad 43% Culver 4% other

    3. Jonathan Narcisse

    4. 61% Chuck Grassley 39% Roxanne Conlin

    5. 53% Bruce Braley 47% Ben Lange

    6. 51% Mariannette Miller-Meeks   49% Dave Loebsack

    7. 51% Leonard Boswell 49% Brad Zaun

    8. 64% Tom Latham 36% Bill Maske

    9. 62% Steve King 38% Matt Campbell

    10. 197 Democrats 238 Republicans  

    11. 49 Republicans 49 Democrats 2 Dem leaning independents

    12. 47 Democrats 53 Republicans

    13. 26 Democrats 24 Republicans

    14. 50%+1 Tom Miller 50% Brenna Findley

    15. 51% Michael Mauro 49% Matt Schultz

    16. 56% Michael Fitzgerald 44% Dave Jamison

    17. 64% Bill Northey 36% Francis Thicke

    18. 63% David Vaudt 37% Jon Murphy  

    19. 45% yes Justices Marsha Ternus, 49% yes for Michael Streit and David Baker

    20. 45% yes votes

  • took me a while to decide

    whether to go with my optimistic or pessimistic predictions. With a few exceptions, pessimism rules the day.

    1. 1,075,800 for total turnout

    2. Branstad 53, Culver 44

    3. Cooper

    4. Grassley 64 Conlin 35

    5. Braley 54 Lange 45

    6. Loebsack 51 Miller-Meeks 49

    7. Boswell 54 Zaun 45

    8. Latham 62 Maske 38

    9. King 63 Campbell 36

    10. 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats

    11. 53 Democrats (including 2 independents who caucus with Democrats), 47 Republicans

    12. 52 Republicans, 48 Democrats in Iowa House

    13. 28 Democrats, 22 Republicans in Iowa Senate

    14. Miller 57 Findley 43

    15. Mauro 51 Schultz 49

    16. Fitzgerald 53 Jamison 47

    17. Northey 58 Thicke 42

    18. Vaudt 61 Murphy 39

    19. Ternus 42, Streit and Baker 48

    20. 39 percent “yes” on a constitutional convention

  • Results/Winners

    How did I do?  

    I was hoping to see a follow up post with winners!

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