The American Research Group released a new poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers today. It was the first Iowa poll showing former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney ahead since before Texas Governor Rick Perry announced his candidacy in August.
Perry has led the last three polls of Iowa Republican caucus-goers, but ARG found a different mood among the 600 Republicans and no-party voters interviewed between September 22 and 27. Asked for whom they would vote if the 2012 presidential caucus were held today, 21 percent of likely caucus-goer respondents said Romney, 15 percent said Representative Michele Bachmann, 15 percent said they were undecided, 14 percent said Perry, 12 percent said Representative Ron Paul, 8 percent said Newt Gingrich, 6 percent said Herman Cain, 4 percent said former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 2 percent said former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, and 1 percent each went to former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, and “other.”
Most of the ARG interviews occurred after last Thursday’s presidential debate in Florida. Commentators and Republican participants in a focus group convened by Frank Luntz generally felt that Romney performed well and that Perry had a bad night.
Texas First Lady Anita Perry attended the official opening of her husband’s Iowa campaign headquarters this morning in West Des Moines. She said Perry is at his best when the chips are down. His aides say the campaign will hit Romney harder on education and health care reform policy.
While the ARG snapshot doesn’t look great for Perry, he’s still very much in the hunt. The numbers look worse for Santorum. He’s made many Iowa visits and had staff working here for months. He has generally performed well in debates. Nevertheless, he’s stuck below Gingrich (who lacks any campaign whatsoever) and Palin (who’s not even a candidate).
ARG included respondents in the sample if they answered 7 or higher to this question:
Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not participate in the 2012 Republican presidential caucus and 10 meaning that you will definitely participate in the 2012 Republican presidential caucus, what number would you give as your chance of participating in the 2012 Republican presidential caucus?
About 71 percent of respondents answered “10,” meaning that they definitely will participate in the caucuses. Among that subsample, Romney led with 19 percent, followed by Perry and Bachmann (15 percent each), Paul and undecided (14 percent each), Gingrich (9 percent), Cain (5 percent), Palin and Santorum (3 percent each), and other/Roemer/Huntsman (1 percent each).
Among the 86 percent of respondents who are registered Republicans, Romney led with 22 percent, followed by Perry (16 percent), undecided (15 percent), Bachmann (14 percent), Paul (10 percent), Gingrich (9 percent), Cain (5 percent), Palin and Santorum (3 percent each), and other/Roemer/Huntsman (1 percent each).
Among the 14 percent of respondents who are registered no-party voters, Paul led with 23 percent, followed by Bachmann (20 percent), undecided (15 percent), Romney (13 percent), Cain (11 percent), Palin (10 percent), Perry (5 percent), Gingrich (2 percent), and other (1 percent).
Romney posted a huge lead among the 48 percent of respondents who said they either don’t support or are undecided about the Tea Party. Some 37 percent of that group favored Romney, followed by Perry (15 percent), Paul (11 percent), Bachmann (10 percent), Gingrich (3 percent), Huntsman Roemerother (2 percent each), and Palin and Santorum (1 percent each).
The 52 percent of respondents who identified as Tea Party supporters were spread more evenly: Bachmann (19 percent), Perry and undecided (14 percent each), Paul and Gingrich (13 percent each), Cain (10 percent), Palin (8 percent), Romney (6 percent), and Santorum (3 percent).
Speaking of the Iowa caucuses, they will probably be held in early January rather than on February 6, as previously scheduled. That’s because Florida is now likely to set its primary for January 31, 2012. My sympathies go out to the field organizers and volunteers who will be forced to canvass and phone bank in Iowa the week between Christmas and New Year’s.
Any comments about the presidential campaign are welcome in this thread.