Two Republican presidential candidates who have spent very little time in Iowa during the past few months are leading the Des Moines Register’s latest poll of Iowa Republicans.
Selzer and Co interviewed 400 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers from October 23 through 26, producing a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. The Sunday Des Moines Register published full results: toplines are here.
Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain was the top choice for respondents with 23 percent support, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney received 22 percent. Everyone else was way behind: Representative Ron Paul (12 percent), Representative Michele Bachmann (8 percent), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry (7 percent each), former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (5 percent), and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman (1 percent).
Cain has done well in most of the televised debates, and his background in business is clearly a plus for many Republicans. The Register’s poll found that 71 percent of respondents said “experience in business” was a more important qualification for the presidency than having held elective office. Several other Republican candidates have questioned Cain’s idiotic 9-9-9 tax plan, but few have punched holes in his image as a successful businessman. Paul has criticized Cain’s role as a “Federal Reserve insider and apologist,” and I expect Iowa Republicans will hear more about that soon.
Yet again we see Romney in the low 20s in an Iowa poll. As volatile as the GOP race has been, his numbers have hardly moved all year. He may not be acceptable to the most conservative parts of the base, but he has a real chance to win the caucuses if the rest of the field remains disorganized. He leads among respondents under age 35, followed by Cain and Paul. Jennifer Jacobs noted one “warning flag” for Romney: he does much worse than Cain among respondents who say they will definitely attend the caucuses.
I am surprised to see Bachmann drop so far back in Iowa. I expected her to remain a strong contender for the caucuses, even if she never picked up a lot of steam nationally. Her debate performances have all looked strong to me.
Paul never seems to be able to get beyond the 10 to 15 percent level of support in any poll. He has spent a lot of money on television advertising in Iowa, and his commercials look effective to me. My sense is that his stands on foreign and military policy are too far out of the GOP mainstream for him to break through, but he’d probably be happy with a third-place finish in Iowa.
Perry just started advertising in Iowa after this poll was in the field, but other groups have been running ads on his behalf before now. The Register’s poll found Perry has just 7 percent support among respondents who said they were born-again Christians: “Only Jon Huntsman fares worse with this group, at zero.” I didn’t expect the Texas governor to be so weak in Iowa. His campaign staffers have hinted that he may not participate in some of the future presidential debates, but I doubt that’s a winning formula for him either.
It has to be depressing for Santorum to spend so much time in Iowa and still be so far back. Gingrich always seems to be a nose ahead of Santorum even without having campaign staff.
The Register’s poll asked respondents about their second choices in the presidential race. Second choices aren’t particularly important for Republicans at the precinct caucuses, because the Iowa GOP doesn’t use the 15 percent viability threshold that forces many Democratic caucus-goers to pick a second choice. But at this stage, second choices may be important because only 25 percent of respondents said their mind is made up in the presidential race, whereas 59 percent said they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate at the caucuses.
Cain led the field as a second choice for 19 percent of respondents, followed by Gingrich (13 percent), Romney (11 percent), Paul and Perry (9 percent each), Bachmann (8 percent), Santorum (4 percent) and Huntsman (2 percent).
Cain also had the best results when respondents were asked which of the candidates they liked least. Just 3 percent said Cain was their least-favorite candidate. Bachmann had the highest number on that question (16 percent), followed by Romney (14 percent), Paul (12 percent), Perry (11 percent), Gingrich and Huntsman (9 percent each) and Santorum (5 percent).