All of the candidates seeking to replace U.S. Senator Tom Harkin will need to work hard on raising their name ID in the coming year, judging from the new Quinnipiac University poll. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,411 registered Iowa voters between May 15 and 21, producing a margin of error of +/- 2.61 percentage points. Representative Bruce Braley, who is so far unchallenged in the Democratic primary, is the best known of the Senate contenders, but even so, 57 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion. Braley was in positive territory (27 percent favorable/14 percent unfavorable) among the respondents who expressed an opinion.
Quinnipiac asked Iowans about five potential Republican candidates for Senate. Although Secretary of State Matt Schultz holds a statewide office, 81 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion. About 11 percent had a favorable view of Schultz, 7 percent unfavorable.
The other possible GOP candidates were even less well known. Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker’s numbers: 8 percent favorable, 4 percent unfavorable, 86 percent haven’t heard enough. State Senator Joni Ernst: 5 percent favorable, 3 percent unfavorable, 92 percent haven’t heard enough. Iowa GOP chair A.J. Spiker: 2 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable, 91 percent haven’t heard enough. Senator Chuck Grassley’s staffer David Young: 3 percent favorable, 2 percent unfavorable, 94 percent haven’t heard enough.
Several of those Republicans are much more widely known among GOP activists. Still, the Quinnipiac poll indicates that the eventual nominee will have plenty of work to do before the June 2014 primary. Then again, the competitive GOP race will generate a lot of media coverage next spring, while Braley could be fighting to keep his name in the news without a rival on the Democratic side.
Speaking of Republican competition, Sioux City-based college professor and talk radio host Sam Clovis may run for Senate. He told Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal that he is “deeply steeped in the intellectual aspects of conservatism” and could appeal to the primary voters who are “ready for a red-meat conservative.” The Iowa Republican’s Craig Robinson reported that Young has resigned his position on Grassley’s staff, is buying a house in Dallas County, and has retained consultants and a pollster for a Senate race. Meanwhile, Whitaker is already moving to the right on “Obamacare.”
4 Comments
Young
From the perspective of wanting Braley to win for sure I might want one of the more conservative candidates to win the primary. If I am hoping for a good government Republican to win the primary I think David Young would be my best bet.
I want both of Iowa’s Senators to be functional and answer the phone when people call. I don’t see how Young gets out of a primary. He can’t brag about helping an elderly constituent with their Medicare Part D issue and expect to get applause for that.
In fact Spiker may be the only male candidate that can beat Ernst if all these other people really take a look at it. The Paul wing is such a wild card. I don’t think Ernst would be able to out crazy Spiker, thus forcing her to run closer to the “center” and making another candidate irrelevant. I think our SOS will run for re-election.
moderateiadem Fri 24 May 3:12 PM
if it's Ernst
against three or four men in a primary, I like her chances.
It’s hard for me to imagine a Washington insider like Young winning the GOP primary. He has worked in the U.S. Senate for 17 years. I just don’t see it.
Even if the Ron Paul faction unites around any candidate (Spiker or someone else), that may not be enough to deliver victory in a primary. There may be as many as 200,000 GOP primary voters next June–a lot bigger than the Iowa caucus-goer universe.
desmoinesdem Fri 24 May 4:13 PM
as for Schultz
I agree with you, it makes more sense for him to run for re-election. But Craig Robinson is more plugged in with Republicans and thinks there’s a 90 percent chance Schultz will run for Senate.
desmoinesdem Fri 24 May 4:14 PM
Very true
If Schultz runs I think he has done enough for Santorum and to raise a fuss about different issues in order to be for the front runner. If I were him I would wait for a Branstad or Grassley retirement.
Spiker could do well. You are right on the numbers. I think you’ve got a lot of Ron Paul people in Iowa that don’t realize they are Ron Paul people yet. I don’t think people realize that the unemployment rate would skyrocket if a Ron/Rand Paul budget would do what they want to do to the Armed Forces in particular. These kids who join the military and then worship the idol that is Ron/Rand Paul don’t realize that they may not be able to find a job if he got control.
I’m waiting to hear Spiker’s stance on immigration. Illegal immigration is still an issue a lot of people are concerned about here, whether it is a legit concern or not. His stance on immigration could deflate his candidacy before it ever gets off the ground.
moderateiadem Fri 24 May 4:24 PM