I forgot to put up this year’s primary election prediction contest earlier this week, but better late than never. To enter, post your answers to the twelve questions after the jump as a comment in this thread sometime before 7 am central time on Tuesday, June 3. It’s fine to change your mind about some or all of your answers, as long as you post a comment with your new predictions before the deadline.
Only comments posted in this thread will be valid contest entries. Predictions submitted by e-mail or twitter will not be considered. Please try to answer every question, even if it’s just a wild guess. We’re all guessing anyway, since few polls have been published about these races.
The winner receives no cash or other prizes–just bragging rights in the Bleeding Heartland community. Can someone stop ModerateIADem from “three-peating”? He won both the 2010 and the 2012 primary election prediction contests.
1. How many Republicans will cast ballots statewide in the five-way primary for U.S. Senate? Keep in mind that Democrats and no-party voters may change their registrations on June 3 in order to vote in the GOP primary. For reference, just under 230,000 ballots were cast in the 2010 three-way GOP primary for governor. The winner on this question will be the person whose guess is closest to the actual turnout, whether high or low. (This isn’t like The Price Is Right, where you have to be close without going over the mark.)
2. What percentage of the vote will each of the five Republicans seeking the U.S. Senate nomination (Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Scott Schaben, and Matt Whitaker) receive in the primary? UPDATE: The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll by Selzer & Co, published on June 1, shows Ernst with 36 percent support, Jacobs 18 percent, undecided 16 percent, Whitaker 13 percent, Clovis 11 percent, and Schaben 2 percent.
3. What percentage of the vote will Governor Terry Branstad and Tom Hoefling receive in the GOP primary for governor?
4. What percentage of the vote will each of the five Democrats seeking the nomination in IA-01 (Swati Dandekar, Anesa Kajtazovic, Pat Murphy, Dave O’Brien, and Monica Vernon) receive in the primary?
5. What percentage of the vote will each of the three Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-01 (Rod Blum, Gail Boliver, Steve Rathje) receive in the primary?
6. What percentage of the vote will each of the three Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-02 (Mark Lofgren, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and Matthew Waldren) receive in the primary?
7. What percentage of the vote will each of the six Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-03 (Robert Cramer, Joe Grandanette, Matt Schultz, Monte Shaw, David Young, and Brad Zaun) receive in the primary?
8. Iowa candidates need to win at least 35 percent of the primary vote to win a nomination outright. Which of the following races will have the nomination decided at a special convention: IA-Sen Republican primary, IA-01 Democratic primary, and/or IA-03 Republican primary?
9. (may not be relevant depending on the June 3 vote) Who will win the IA-Sen GOP nomination if it goes to a statewide convention?
10. (may not be relevant depending on the June 3 vote) Who will win the IA-01 Democratic nomination if it goes to a district convention?
11. (may not be relevant depending on the June 3 vote) Who will win the IA-03 GOP nomination if it goes to a district convention?
12. Will any Iowa House or Senate incumbent in either party lose to a primary challenger? If so, name the person or people who will suffer the fate of Iowa House Majority Whip Erik Helland in 2012. The official candidate list (pdf) includes all the incumbents facing primary challengers.