A poll in the field this week is testing dozens of messages about the two Democrats running for governor, State Auditor Rob Sand and Julie Stauch, who has worked for many Democratic campaigns and nonprofit organizations.
The survey appears designed to identify Sand’s weaknesses and the strongest arguments a competitor could make before the June 2 Democratic primary. Several questions highlight how Sand has distanced himself from his party or failed to take a stand on issues that matter to many Democratic voters.
A spokesperson for Sand’s campaign confirmed they did not commission the poll but declined further comment. Stauch declined to comment for the record.
Some other entity may have paid for the survey—perhaps a Democratic-aligned group or large donor considering spending to support Sand or Stauch for governor. It’s also possible a Republican-aligned group is thinking about meddling in the Democratic primary to weaken the likely nominee. (The Downballot reported on January 29 that “a prominent GOP consulting firm is financing an obscure group that’s run digital ads and sent out mailers” in support of a Democratic candidate for an upcoming special election in Michigan.)
Sand is the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, with higher name ID, statewide election victories in 2018 and 2022, and more than $13.2 million cash on hand as of December 31, compared to around $12,000 in Stauch’s campaign account. Even so, a strong primary challenge could weaken the front-runner, by forcing his campaign to spend more before the general election period, or by exposing how he has alienated part of the base he would need to win in November.
Continue Reading...