Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum all lead President Barack Obama in the latest Iowa poll that Selzer & Co conducted for the Des Moines Register. The Register posted the toplines on its website Saturday evening. Paul leads Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, Santorum leads by 48 percent to 44 percent, and Romney leads by 46 percent to 44 percent. Obama crushes Newt Gingrich by 51 percent to 37 percent.

I’ll update this post tomorrow with additional details, to be published in the Sunday Des Moines Register. If Selzer’s poll of 611 likely voters (drawn from a sample of 800 Iowa adults) is accurate, Obama’s campaign has a lot of work to do here. Reaching 270 electoral votes without winning Iowa would be difficult for the president.

UPDATE: The exact wording of the election questions and results are here (pdf).

What a week for marriage. Washington Governor Chris Gregoire signed an equality bill on Monday. The Maryland House of Delegates passed an equality bill today despite the defection of a Democrat once thought to be a supporter. The Maryland Senate has already voted for marriage in the past, so the path is clear to Governor Martin O’ Malley’s desk. He will sign the bill. Opponents of same-sex marriage will probably get initiatives to overturn the Maryland and Washington laws on the November ballot, but supporters of equality have a decent chance of winning those battles.

The New Jersey legislature also approved a marriage equality bill this week, but Governor Chris Christie vetoed it today. In effect, he flushed his legacy down the toilet in order to preserve a shot at becoming the Republican presidential nominee someday. It’s sad when an official puts his own career before the rights of thousands of constituents, but that’s politics.

In Washington, New Jersey, and Maryland, a handful of Republicans stepped up to vote for the marriage bills. The same was true when New York’s legislature passed its equality bill in June. Sadly, not a single Republican in the Iowa legislature has the guts to speak for marriage rights. I will not be surprised if a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage ends up on the 2016 general election ballot in Iowa.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

Both houses of Congress approved a deal today to extend a payroll tax cut through the end of this year. It was only the second time I can remember that Senator Tom Harkin and Representative Steve King (IA-05) voted against a bill that the rest of Iowa’s Congressional delegation supported.

The U.S. House approved a bill last night that would encourage more offshore oil drilling and force the Obama administration to approve the Keystone XL pipeline. Although Leonard Boswell (IA-03) has talked about getting tough on oil companies for the past year, he was one of 21 House Democrats who joined most Republicans in supporting the “drill here, drill now” crowd’s wish list.  

Christie Vilsack’s Congressional campaign announced its three co-chairs today: State Senator Amanda Ragan of Mason City, former Story County Supervisor Jane Halliburton of Ames, and Sioux City businessman Irving Jensen, Jr. Normally this kind of press release wouldn’t be newsworthy, but it’s not every day that a Republican businessman leads a campaign against an entrenched GOP incumbent.

As Iowa’s top state officials welcomed Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping yesterday, activists gathered in Muscatine and Des Moines to protest China’s policy of repression in Tibet. Governor Terry Branstad praised Xi and his country, gushing about the potential to expand trade and friendship between Iowa and China.

Iowa’s “pro-life” movement was nowhere to be seen and had nothing to say about Xi’s visit.

Barely a month after being on a winning team, Bob Vander Plaats appears determined not to let anyone forget that he’s the biggest loser in Iowa politics.

Last night in Cedar Rapids, Republican Ben Lange formally announced his 2012 campaign to represent Iowa’s first Congressional district. The candidate who narrowly lost IA-01 in 2010 is not a lock for the GOP nomination. Unlike two years ago, Lange faces a primary rival with extensive business experience and a decent amount of money in the bank. For now, he is ignoring the Republican competition in IA-01 and taking aim at three-term incumbent Bruce Braley. Lange’s talking points merit a closer look.

President Barack Obama released his draft budget for the 2013 fiscal year yesterday. Details on the president’s proposed spending and tax rates are after the jump, along with reaction from the Iowans in Congress and some of their challengers.  

MARCH 16 UPDATE: Republican Elliott Henderson of Independence qualified for the ballot on the last day of the filing period. Bleeding Heartland will discuss his campaign in a future post.

State Senator Brian Schoenjahn confirmed today that he is running for re-election in the new Senate district 32. This politically balanced seat is a must-win for Democrats hoping to retain their majority in the upper chamber. With barely a month to go before the filing deadline for state legislative candidates, Republicans do not yet have a challenger in this district.

The Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee met on Saturday to consider a successor to Matt Strawn, who resigned as chairman in the aftermath of the Iowa caucuses.

When a Democrat is governor, the Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee defers to the governor’s choice for party chair. But a majority of the 17 voting Republicans elected A.J. Spiker, co-chair of Ron Paul’s presidential campaign in Iowa, over co-chair Bill Schickel, Governor Terry Branstad’s strong preference.

First Lady Michelle Obama visited Des Moines on February 9 as part of her Let’s Move campaign. After the jump I’ve posted the priceless video of her doing the “Interlude Dance” with University of Northern Iowa students, Governor Terry Branstad and former Governor Tom Vilsack dancing on the right-hand side of the screen. Olympic gold medalist Shawn Johnson moves in and out of the frame in this clip.

I hadn’t heard of the Interlude Dance before last Thursday, but anything fun that encourages people to exercise is all good as far as I’m concerned. I wish kids had physical education every day in school and more time to run around at recess. Besides burning calories, exercise improves brain function and mitigates some behavioral problems.

Preventing obesity in kids is critical for lifelong health, because it is much more difficult for people who have been obese to stay at a healthy weight, even after a successful diet and exercise program. Excerpts from Tara Parker-Pope’s article “The Fat Trap” are below, but I encourage you to click the link and read the whole piece.

The Let’s Move campaign focuses on eating well and increasing physical activity. While those factors are extremely important, new research suggests a baby or toddler’s emotional security is also correlated with the risk of becoming obese. I posted some findings below from a long-term study of nearly a thousand children.

This is an open thread.

Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller announced yesterday “a landmark $25 billion national joint federal-state accord over mortgage foreclosure abuses and fraud, and unacceptable nationwide mortgage servicing practices.” My gut says this deal lets lenders off too easily and will do virtually nothing for most foreclosure fraud victims. A $2,000 check isn’t much for people who wrongfully lost their homes, and the amount earmarked for principal reductions would rescue only a tiny fraction of “underwater” borrowers.

I’ve posted five versions of the case for the agreement after the jump, along with five statements from critics of the deal. Miller’s press release includes details on what borrowers in Iowa could receive. Please share your perspective in the comments.

Two days after the Iowa Department of Public Health announced plans to appeal a court ruling on same-sex parents’ right to be listed on birth certificates, a new lawsuit challenged the department’s refusal to list a non-birthing spouse on a stillborn baby’s death certificate.

The U.S. House overwhelmingly approved the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act today, but House leaders amended the bill U.S. senators passed last week. An amendment offered by Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa will be at the center of negotiations on the House-Senate conference committee charged with reconciling the two versions of the STOCK Act.

Grassley viciously attacked Office of Legal Counsel chief Virginia Seitz because he doesn't like an opinion of hers– something even a former Bush appointee to this position, Jack Goldsmith, referred to as “name callling” and “misplaced.”
 

Most governors have the power to veto specific line items in appropriations bills, and many deficit hawks believe bills passed by Congress should be subject to the same kind of scrutiny. However, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1998 that it is unconstitutional to give the president line-item veto power over appropriations bills. Seeking a way around that problem, the House approved a bill yesterday that would allow the president to recommend budget rescissions for Congress to consider. The legislation attracted an unusually bipartisan group of supporters and opponents.

Christie Vilsack’s campaign is asking supporters to help the former Iowa first lady gain the endorsement of the progressive political action committee Democracy for America. However, the Democratic challenger to Representative Steve King in Iowa’s new fourth Congressional district has not formally applied for the group’s support.

The League of Conservation Voters released its National Environmental Scorecard yesterday, based on 11 U.S. Senate votes and 35 U.S. House votes during 2011.

Iowa’s five representatives in the U.S. House split on party lines over two more budget reform bills approved since last week’s effort to change cost scoring methods on some legislation.