This morning former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign released Romney’s 2010 tax return and some details on the “unemployed” candidate’s 2011 income. Some links and analysis are after the jump.

The final four Republican presidential candidates debate tonight in Tampa, starting at 8 pm central time on NBC. Mitt Romney will try to keep the focus off his own finances, having promised to release two years of tax returns tomorrow. Romney may also be more aggressive about drawing contrasts with Newt Gingrich, judging from a new Romney tv ad I’ve posted after the jump.

In the latest Republican debates, Ron Paul criticized Gingrich and Rick Santorum repeatedly, while mostly ignoring Romney’s record. I expect him to stick to that plan, which has a double benefit: it keeps Paul on good terms with the most likely GOP nominee while undermining his rivals for the “not Romney” vote.

I assume abortion will be a significant topic tonight, in light of the 39th anniversary of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Roe v Wade decision. I don’t know what more the candidates can say on the subject, which has been explored in several previous debates.

Any comments about the debate or the GOP campaign generally are welcome in this thread.  

I just got a call and participated in a very long political survey.  Based on the questions as the survey progressed, I'm guessing it's a Latham or NRCC poll. (Thank you for the Tarrance background and NRCC information in your comment, DesMoinesDem.  Diary is edited to reflect your insight.)

The run-down of questions, based on my scribbled notes, after the jump. 

Governor Terry Branstad struck a blow against what he considers overly burdensome business regulations today. He moved to help farmers regain an exemption from having electrical work inspected.

UPDATE: Added language from Iowa Code below. I don’t see how it supports Branstad’s argument.

Last week, the U.S. House passed a resolution to disapprove President Barack Obama’s latest request to raise the debt limit. The mostly party-line vote was also mostly symbolic and consequently received little media attention. However, Republican challengers in Iowa’s first and second Congressional districts are likely to highlight this vote in their campaigns against Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack.

Crime and punishment are on my mind this weekend. Yesterday two men were sentenced for breaking into Representative Leonard Boswell’s farm house last July, and an Iowa Democratic operative was charged with perpetrating identity theft against Secretary of State Matt Schultz. Follow me after the jump for more on those and other crime-related stories.

This is an open thread; all topics welcome. The Bleeding Heartland thread on the South Carolina primary results is here.  

Polls close in South Carolina at 7 pm eastern time, and most observers now expect Newt Gingrich to beat Mitt Romney. Gingrich led the last several polls to come out of the state, and an unnamed Romney aide is spinning a tale about a Newt win being good for the GOP front-runner going forward.

Any comments about the Republican presidential primaries are welcome in this thread. I don’t think Rick Santorum will drop out at this stage, even if he finishes a distant third or fourth place tonight. He may as well stick it out until the Florida primary on January 31, to see whether Gingrich fades again as the preferred “not Romney.” Whether Santorum has the money to compete is another question. Romney has been up on Florida tv and radio for a while. Gingrich is running what sounds like a devastating Spanish-language radio ad against Romney, although Cuban-American GOP members of Congress from South Florida have endorsed Romney.

UPDATE: It’s Newt by a mile. With about 88 percent of the votes counted, Gingrich has 40.5 percent of the vote, Romney 27.0 percent, Santorum 17.4 percent and Ron Paul 13.4 percent. Excerpts from the candidates’ speeches tonight are after the jump.

LATER UPDATE: With 100 percent reporting, Gingrich received 40.4 percent of the vote, Romney 27.9 percent, Santorum 17.0 percent and Paul 13.0 percent. Gingrich won 23 of South Carolina’s delegates, while Romney won the other two. Romney carried only three counties.  

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee signaled this week that it is willing to spend additional resources supporting Christie Vilsack’s campaign against Representative Steve King in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district.

Several environmental groups are mobilizing against $5 million in proposed state funding to rebuild the Lake Delhi dam on the Maquoketa River in Delaware County.

With Rick Perry dropping out of the race to endorse Newt Gingrich this morning, four Republican presidential candidates remained for tonight’s CNN debate in South Carolina. Any comments about the debate or about Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul or Rick Santorum are welcome in this thread. I’ll update with my thoughts later–so far I’m most encouraged to hear some statements by the candidates against the Stop Online Piracy Act.

UPDATE: Missed the first part of the live broadcast, but finished watching the replay on CNN and added some comments after the jump.

The Republican Party of Iowa will not declare Rick Santorum the winner of the Iowa caucuses, even though he leads Mitt Romney by a few dozen votes according to the certified results, and led Romney unofficially in the eight precincts where results could not be certified. A narrow margin of victory with a clear winner would have been great for the Iowa GOP, as it would show multiple paths to winning the caucuses. A disputed result that produces no official winner is a public relations nightmare.

UPDATE: Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn now admits Santorum won the caucuses. The episode still makes the party look bad, for reasons I discuss below.

President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign is running its first television commercial in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Follow me after the jump for the video and annotated transcript.

President Barack Obama announced today that his administration is rejecting the application for the Keystone XL Pipeline, which would take oil sands from Alberta, Canada to the Gulf Coast of the U.S. In a statement I’ve posted after the jump, the president blamed Congressional Republicans, who attached a “rushed and arbitrary deadline” for the Keystone decision to the temporary payroll tax cut extension bill in December.

Obama’s decision takes the pipeline off the table for now. House Republicans may look for ways to override the administration’s decision, but the Democratic-controlled Senate is unlikely to approve such legislation this year. However, all bets are off after the 2012 elections. TransCanada may resubmit its application after finding a different route through Nebraska.  

By this summer, I predict that “Keystone” will be a household word in the U.S., as Republicans and corporate-funded groups blame Obama’s decision for rising gasoline prices and continued high unemployment. Environmental groups that have opposed the pipeline have a huge public education task on their hands.

UPDATE: I’ve added Representative Steve King’s reaction after the jump.

Republican State Senator Merlin Bartz confirmed this week that he will run for re-election in the new Iowa Senate district 26. His race against Democratic incumbent Mary Jo Wilhelm is probably a must-win for Senate Democrats in order to preserve their majority. After the jump I’ve posted a district map. Bleeding Heartland previewed the Bartz/Wilhelm matchup here.

Bartz has given Iowa progressives plenty of reasons to want him gone, from encouraging county recorders to ignore a Supreme Court ruling to trying to block the most significant water quality regulations of the last decade. Bartz’s record is so bad that even learning he “has performed for over 35 years in north and northeast Iowa with various dance bands” didn’t give me any sympathy for the guy. Democrats who live within striking distance of Worth, Mitchell, Floyd, Howard, Chickasaw, Cerro Gordo, or Winneshiek counties have a golden volunteer opportunity here.

P.S. to the Des Moines Register’s editorial staff: that last link was to William Petroski’s blog post. I liked the dance band detail. When you read something interesting on a blog, it won’t kill you to link to it. I mention this because your January 15 comment on Bartz’s crusade against “obsolete” laws reads a lot like Bleeding Heartland’s post from January 10.  

Wikipedia, Reddit and many other websites are dark today to protest the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and the Protect Intellectual Property Act (PIPA), now pending in the U.S. House and Senate. Momentum appears to have shifted against this legislation in its current form, but a modified bill might still pose a threat to freedom of information. I sought comment on this legislation from all members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation.

UPDATE: Added Representative Bruce Braley’s statement opposing SOPA below, along with a comment from Representative Steve King’s office.

LATER UPDATE: A statement from Representative Leonard Boswell is now below as well.

THURSDAY UPDATE: Added a YouTube video about SOPA, released by Braley’s re-election campaign.

A new report underscores how badly Iowa lawmakers screwed up when they missed the chance in 2010 to enact reasonable regulations on “legalized usury,” more commonly known as payday lending.

Last week the Des Moines-based Child & Family Policy Center released “Iowa Kids Count 2010: Trends in the Well-Being of Iowa Children.” Highlights from the report are after the jump. While several indicators showed improvement in children’s health between 2000 and 2010, the economic circumstances of Iowa children and families deteriorated significantly.

Jon Huntsman’s exit from the presidential race leaves five Republican candidates taking the stage tonight for a Fox News debate, co-sponsored by the Wall Street Journal and the South Carolina GOP.

I will update this post later with highlights. I don’t expect Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry or Rick Santorum to do any real damage to Mitt Romney. Any comments about this debate or the GOP primary campaign are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: I missed part of the debate, but some thoughts are after the jump.

Last year, Governor Terry Branstad made only a brief appearance and declined to give a speech at the annual Martin Luther King, Jr. Day event in Des Moines. He wasn’t dumb enough to make that mistake twice.  

Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital is under increasing scrutiny as opponents try desperately to stop him from winning next Saturday’s GOP primary in South Carolina. Some of the anti-Romney narratives can’t stand up to the same level of scrutiny. I’ve posted some links on the “Bain way” and other factors in the Republican presidential race after the jump.