A bill to expand offshore drilling for oil failed to advance in the U.S. Senate yesterday. Iowa’s Chuck Grassley was among 42 Republicans who voted to proceed with considering the Offshore Production and Safety Act of 2011 (roll call). Five Republicans joined every Democrat present, including Tom Harkin, in voting against the motion, which needed 60 votes to pass.

This bill was written as the Republican way to address high gasoline prices, in contrast with Democratic efforts to repeal oil company tax breaks. Although oil market experts agree that more drilling in the outer shelf won’t affect prices at the pump, I am surprised that no Senate Democrats backed yesterday’s motion to proceed. When the House of Representatives approved a different offshore drilling bill two weeks ago, a large chunk of the Democratic caucus (including Iowa’s Leonard Boswell) voted with Republicans.

In other Senate news, Grassley hasn’t announced how he will vote on House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan’s budget: “[Grassley] said the burden is on Senate Democrats to explain why they haven’t introduced their own alternative budget.” I would be shocked if Grassley voted against Ryan’s plan. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell isn’t whipping his colleagues to vote for the legislation, probably because Democrats plan to make proposed Medicare reforms the centerpiece of the 2012 election campaign. But Grassley doesn’t have to worry about being re-elected.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was poised to capitalize on Mike Huckabee’s decision not to run for president. Gingrich announced his Iowa leadership team last week. Chaired by House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, who endorsed Gingrich months ago, the high-powered crew includes activist and attorney Craig Schoenfeld as executive director, Iowa House Speaker Pro Tempore Jeff Kaufmann as senior policy advisor, Katie Koberg (former vice-president of Iowans for Tax Relief) as deputy director and Will Rogers as grassroots director.

Huckabee’s announcement sparked a wave of “Iowa is wide open” news coverage, just as Gingrich was set to kick off a five-day Iowa tour. In 2010 Gingrich quietly helped raise $200,000 for the campaign against retaining three Iowa Supreme Court judges, which might have helped him with the social conservatives who were Huckabee’s base supporters.

It all started to go wrong Sunday…

A Republican-led filibuster blocked Senate consideration today of a bill that would end “tax breaks for the five largest oil companies: Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips and Chevron.” Click here for more detail on tax breaks that would be eliminated. The 52 to 48 vote in favor of proceeding with the “Close Big Oil Tax Loopholes Act” failed because 60 votes are needed to overcome a filibuster. The roll call shows that Iowa’s Chuck Grassley voted against the motion to proceed, as did all but two Senate Republicans. Tom Harkin voted for considering the bill, as did all but three Democrats.

I’m all for ending oil company subsidies, but this bill was about optics rather than good energy policy. Andrew Restuccia wrote in The Hill,

Democrats’ pledge to continue pushing the bill signals that they view the effort as a winning political issue amid $4-a-gallon gas, soaring oil company profits and growing concern about the deficit. […]

Democrats say the bill would save $21 billion over the course of 10 years, savings that can be used to reduce the deficit at a time of increased belt-tightening.

Those talking points would be more convincing if party leaders had genuinely tried to end oil subsidies when Democrats controlled the U.S. House and had close to 60 votes in the Senate. It also makes no sense to focus this bill on the biggest oil companies, rather than the sector as a whole. Democrats apparently wrote the bill that way because of those companies’ large profits in the first quarter of this year.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told journalists today that he will press for ending oil companies’ tax breaks as part of legislation on raising the debt ceiling. The U.S. hit its current debt ceiling yesterday and won’t be able to pay all its bills if Congress does not act to raise the ceiling by August 2. I believe President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats are playing a losing game by making budget negotiations part of a deal on raising the debt ceiling. When it was time to raise the government’s borrowing limit in 1995, President Bill Clinton wisely refused to let Republicans use the occasion to “backdoor their budget proposals.”

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: After the jump I’ve added a statement Grassley released on May 17, calling on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to approve the proposed Keystone XL Canadian pipeline project. Grassley depicts that project as a way for the Obama administration to help reduce the cost of gasoline. But an analysis commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy earlier this year suggested that building this pipeline might cause oil and therefore gasoline prices to rise in the Midwest. Environmental groups have raised many objections to the Keystone XL project as well.

SECOND UPDATE: I’ve also added below excerpts from a report by the Congressional Research Service on “the extent to which proposed tax changes on the oil industry are likely to affect domestic gasoline prices.” The report briefly explains the five tax breaks that would be repealed under the bill senators filibustered.

On a party-line 26 to 23 vote, the Iowa Senate today approved a bill to restrict the locations of clinics where abortions are performed after 20 weeks gestation. Senators also rejected an attempt to bring up a broader ban on abortions after 20 weeks.

Follow me after the jump for background and details on the Senate debate, including the various amendments Republicans offered.

I could never understand why anyone thought Donald Trump was serious about running for president. A notorious germaphobe is not going to give up a show on network television in order to work the Iowa Republican house party and county fair circuit. Even if he did, his donations to various Democrats and assorted socially liberal statements would sink him in a Republican primary.

Anyway, Trump confirmed today that his recent speeches and press conferences were just a massive publicity stunt he is not running for president in 2012. President Barack Obama’s team will be disappointed; Trump replaced former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as the candidate they would most like to run against.

Dave Weigel sees the Republican Party of Iowa as the second-biggest loser from Trump’s aborted presidential campaign. Trump is scheduled to headline the Iowa GOP’s Lincoln dinner on June 10. (Weigel says the Regnery publishing house is the biggest loser, because they have a Trump policy book scheduled to come out this summer.)

Iowa Republicans are desperate to get serious candidates out here campaigning. Presidential hopefuls and their PACs bring money to county Republican party committees and GOP statehouse candidates. Governor Terry Branstad’s big message at his weekly press conference this morning was that the race is wide open and everyone has a shot in Iowa, not just social conservatives. Branstad has said he won’t endorse a presidential candidate before the caucuses.

Any thoughts about the Republican race for the presidency are welcome in this thread. After the jump I’ve posted excerpts from a guest editorial in the Sunday Des Moines Register by the former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. He claims Iowa Republicans “have marginalized themselves.”

P.S. I’ve never been a fan of Lawrence O’Donnell, but he was right to say that NBC executives should have revealed earlier this spring whether the network had renewed Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” for another season.

P.P.S. Seth Meyers got in some good Trump jokes at the White House Correspondents Dinner last month.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee announced on his Fox show last night that he will not be a candidate for president in 2012. I doubt many people were surprised, because Huckabee had done little to lay the groundwork for a campaign. Shortly after Huckabee visited Iowa on a book tour earlier this year, his 2008 state campaign manager Eric Woolson signed on with former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Several other influential Huckabee backers from the last go-around are committed to other candidates as well, including State Senator Kent Sorenson and Wes Enos (now backing Representative Michele Bachmann) and former leaders of the Iowa Family Policy Center (supporting Judge Roy Moore).

It’s anyone’s guess who will benefit most from Huckabee’s absence. Every poll of Iowa Republican caucus-goers I’ve seen this year has put Huckabee in the lead. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney typically places second in those surveys, but he has signaled that he won’t campaign hard in Iowa this year. Judging from how other potential Republican presidential candidates reacted to yesterday’s news, Huckabee’s endorsement will be highly prized.

This story caught my eye: former Governor Chet Culver is co-chairing the National Popular Vote campaign, which seeks to ensure that the winner of the presidential election is the candidate who receives the most popular votes. Since a U.S. constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral college would never be ratified by enough states, the National Popular Vote campaign is seeking to prevent a repeat of the 2000 presidential election.

I was surprised to see Culver on board. When an Iowa Senate committee approved legislation in 2009 to assign Iowa’s electors to the winner of the nationwide popular vote (if enough other states approved the same reform), Culver spoke out against the bill. He warned, “If we require our Electoral College votes to be cast to the winner of the national popular vote, we lose our status as a battleground state.” Then Secretary of State Michael Mauro also opposed the bill, saying, “Under this proposal, it is hard to foresee Iowa maintaining its dominant role and expect candidates to spend their final hours campaigning in our state when they will be focused on capturing the popular vote in much larger states.” Todd Dorman views the national popular vote campaign as an “end-around” the normal constitutional amendment process, but I support the getting rid of the electoral college by the only practical means available. The president should be the person who receives the most votes.

May is Bike to Work Month, and the Iowa Bicycle Coalition has lots of resources to support recreational or commuter bicyclists. The Urban Country Bicycle blog posted about a study that showed the average worker in this country works 500 hours a year (about two hours per working day) just to pay for their cars.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?

UPDATE: Not surprisingly, Huckabee’s Fox News contract played a big part in his decision not to run for president.

Governor Terry Branstad used his weekly press conference on May 16 to urge Republicans candidates to compete in Iowa:

“This is probably going to be the most wide-open, competitive race we’ve ever had for the Iowa caucuses,” Branstad said. “This is a state where a candidate – with hard work and retail politics, going to all 99 counties and meeting with people and answering the questions – this is a state where you can effectively launch a campaign. And it’s not too late.” […]

Branstad publicly took issue with [former New Hampshire GOP Chair Fergus] Cullen’s editorial, which said, “Iowa Republicans have marginalized themselves to the point where competing in Iowa has become optional.”

“Mr. Cullen couldn’t be further from the facts,” Branstad said. “The truth is that Iowa is a full-spectrum state. I think the primary election that I won last year proves that. I would also point out that the front-runner, Mike Huckabee, made a decision over the weekend, which is momentous. He is not running this time, which means he got the largest block of votes in the Iowa caucuses four years ago and those are up for grabs.”

Cullen’s editorial is here; I posted excerpts here.

Branstad’s close associate Doug Gross, who co-chaired Mitt Romney’s 2008 campaign in Iowa, has long warned that the caucuses are not hospitable to moderate candidates. In November 2008, he said, “[W]e’ve gone so far to the social right in terms of particularly caucus attendees that unless you can meet certain litmus tests, if you will, you have a very difficult time competing in Iowa.” But Gross had a very different message today:

I think this is a different year because largely with Huckabee getting out, you’ll have multiple social conservatives in the race. As a result of that, they’ll divide up a lot of the Caucus vote and there’ll be an opportunity for a mainstream Republican to come in and do surprisingly well here. If I were Mitt Romney and I wanted to be the nominee for president, I’d play in Iowa this time because if you win in Iowa this time you have a chance to win the nomination.”

Talk radio conservative Steve Deace shared his perspective as an enthusiastic Huck supporter in 2008 who has grown disillusioned more recently: “Ideologically, the Huckabee of today sounds a lot more like the Rod Roberts of 2010 than the [Bob] Vander Plaats of 2010.”

Democrat Scott Ourth will run for the Iowa House in the new district 26 next year, he announced today. Indianola is the population center of the district, which covers most of southeast and northern Warren County, excluding Cumming and Norwalk. Ourth lost to Republican Glen Massie by about 950 votes (51 to 44 percent) in Warren County-based Iowa House district 74 in 2010. Taking out Norwalk gives the new district 26 slightly better Democratic performance, but it is still a swing area containing 6,927 registered Democrats, 6,417 Republicans and 6,755 no-party voters as of April 2011. After the jump I’ve posted a district map and Ourth’s campaign announcement.

Ourth works as public affairs director for the non-profit organization Disability Rights IOWA. He was previously director of public affairs for Warren County, and before that worked for Iowa House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Ourth has worked on numerous Democratic campaigns, including Tom Vilsack’s first gubernatorial race, Chet Culver’s 2006 run for governor, and Representative Leonard Boswell’s re-election efforts in 1998, 2000 and 2008. Warren County isn’t in Boswell’s current Congressional district, but it was part of the territory he represented during the 1990s and is in the third Congressional district again under Iowa’s new map. In order to beat Representative Tom Latham, Boswell will need strong Democratic turnout in Warren County (among other things). Ourth could benefit from GOTV efforts for the Congressional campaign.

Ourth’s likely opponent, first-term State Representative Massie, irritated House leaders earlier this year when he helped prevent a 20-week abortion ban from getting out of the Human Resources Committee. Republican blogger Craig Robinson wrote last month, “Without help from the Kent Sorenson and others on the ticket, Massie is going to struggle. [The Iowa Republican] has also heard that Massie is telling people that he may not seek re-election.”

Yesterday the Iowa Senate Ways and Means Committee advanced a bill that would restrict where abortions after the 20th week of pregnancy can be performed in Iowa. The bill is aimed at stopping Dr. Leroy Carhart from opening a new clinic in Council Bluffs without adding new restrictions on a woman’s right to have a late-term abortion. However, Republican leaders in both chambers of the state legislature spoke out against that approach yesterday. Details and next steps in this controversy are after the jump.

UPDATE: Added comments from anti-choice Democratic State Senator Tom Hancock below.

State Representative and Iowa House Education Committee Chair Greg Forristall (district 98) created an unfortunate teachable moment yesterday. A Pottawattamie County deputy stopped Forristall’s vehicle after seeing him drive uphill on the wrong side of Iowa Highway 92, nearly causing a head-on collision:

Forristall told the officer he had consumed some gin earlier in the day. Nearly two hours after being stopped, his blood alcohol content was .276, more than three times the legal limit, according to sheriff officials.

The deputy seized a bottle of gin that was nearly ¾ full from Forristall’s vehicle. He was arrested on a charge of driving while intoxicated, cited for driving on the wrong side of the road and released later on a $1,000 bond.

Forristall issued a statement apologizing to “my family, friends and constituents,” adding that “I fully accept the consequences of my actions.”

I doubt this incident will end his political career. Last year, Republican State Representative Erik Helland (district 69) didn’t draw any general-election opponent despite a drunk driving arrest in the summer. There weren’t many write-in votes against Helland, and he was named House majority whip after the November election.

House district 98, covering Mills County and part of Pottawattamie, is so heavily Republican that Forristall hasn’t had a Democratic opponent the last two general elections. Redistricting put him in the new House district 22, covering most of Pottawattamie outside Council Bluffs. The district has a huge Republican voter registration advantage.

Iowa politicians from both parties have been arrested for drunk driving in recent years. It should not be so difficult for lawmakers to ask someone else for a ride when they feel like drinking, especially if they have had enough to reach a blood alcohol level of 0.276. That level can cause “severe motor impairment” and/or loss of consciousness. It’s lucky that no one was injured before the officer stopped Forristall.

Efforts to move Iowa’s water quality enforcement from the Department of Natural Resources to the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship face an uncertain future in the Iowa Senate after clearing the Iowa House in March.

But even if the DNR retains authority over most of the state’s water programs, the agency will have more trouble assessing the state’s polluted waterways. That became clear yesterday when DNR Director Roger Lande announced more than 100 layoffs, citing anticipated funding shortfalls in the fiscal year that begins July 1. Iowa lawmakers have yet to agree on a 2012 budget, but appropriations for key natural resource programs are almost certain to decline. Lande axed three positions in the DNR’s bureau that monitors water pollution.

Looks like Governor Terry Branstad is getting the “change in attitude” he sought for the DNR. More background and details are after the jump.

Although no pro-choice Republicans currently serve in the Iowa legislature, an Iowa House vote yesterday demonstrated that the Republican Party is divided on how far to pursue anti-abortion policies. More than half the House Republican caucus, including the entire leadership team, rejected State Representative Kim Pearson’s attempt to force a vote on a “personhood” bill giving fetuses the full rights of U.S. citizens.

This vote will anger some conservative activists who oppose abortion rights and may become an issue in various Republican primaries next year. More background and details are after the jump.  

With floodwaters along the Mississippi River in the southern U.S reaching historic levels it’s time for Iowa to take a leadership role in helping prevent future flooding by investing in watershed improvement programs and conservation in Iowa.

Many people might not know what a watershed is. A watershed is basically a basin defined by highpoints and ridges that descend into lower elevations and stream valleys. A watershed carries water from the land after rain falls and snow melts. Drop by drop, water is channeled into soils, groundwaters, creeks, and streams, making its way to larger rivers and eventually the sea.

According to the EPA:

A watershed is the area of land where all of the water that is under it or drains off of it goes into the same place. John Wesley Powell, scientist geographer, put it best when he said that a watershed is:

“that area of land, a bounded hydrologic system, within which all living things are inextricably linked by their common water course and where, as humans settled, simple logic demanded that they become part of a community.”

Watersheds come in all shapes and sizes. They cross county, state, and national boundaries. In the continental US, there are 2,110 watersheds; including Hawaii Alaska, and Puerto Rico, there are 2,267 watersheds.

This is the connection between watershed and land management practices in Iowa and recent flooding on the Mississippi River. …more after the jump…

Iowa Senate Ways and Means Committee Chair Joe Bolkcom announced today that he will introduce new legislation designed to stop Omaha-based Dr. Leroy Carhart from opening an abortion clinic in Council Bluffs.

Follow me after the jump for background on Bolkcom’s new proposal and prospects for House File 657, the 20-week abortion ban the Iowa House approved earlier this year. Bolkcom has been assigned to floor-manage House File 657 if and when the upper chamber debates that bill.

UPDATE: Added comments from Governor Terry Branstad and Bolkcom below.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Bolkcom revealed further details on the new bill; his statement is at the end of this post.

Republican Andrew Naeve announced today that he will run in the new Iowa Senate district 49 in 2012. He is a sixth-generation farmer in his mid-20s who serves on the East Central School Board. District 49 covers all of Clinton County and parts of northern Scott County, including the towns of Princeton and Le Claire. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district, but no-party voters have a plurality. As of April 2011, the new district 49 contained 13,524 registered Democrats, 10,139 Republicans and 16,918 no-party voters. After the jump I’ve posted Naeve’s press release and a district map.

Naeve ran for Iowa Senate district 13 last year, losing to Tod Bowman by a 70-vote margin after a recount. The open seat should have been an easy hold for Democrats, who had a strong registration advantage in the district. Notably, Naeve carried Clinton County by more than 500 votes in that race, even though there were nearly 4,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the county at the time. Granted, 2010 was a poor year for Democratic turnout in Iowa, but the number of Democrats who cast ballots in Clinton County last November exceeded the number of Republican voters there by more than 1,000. Naeve must have done well with no-party voters.

No current state senator lives in the new district 49, which is why it will be among the odd-numbered Iowa Senate seats up for election in 2012. To my knowledge, no Democrat has announced plans to run in the district. Some have speculated that Bowman, an educator in Maquoketa (Jackson County), may move to district 49 to resolve being paired with fellow Democrat Tom Hancock in the new Senate district 29. I think it would be wiser for Democrats to recruit someone from Clinton County for this race. Presidential election year turnout should favor a Democratic candidate in district 49, but Naeve has shown he has crossover appeal.

UPDATE: John Deeth writes,

If Bowman were to move within his old Senate district, say, into Clinton County, he would be considered a holdover senator and his four-year term would continue till 2014. However, recent speculation points another direction: Bowman could also stay put in Maquoketa and hold over in District 29 if Hancock, age 63, retires. (Hancock was elected in 2008 so he would have to run no matter what.) District 29 is better for a Democrat by about 3,000 voters.

Hancock retiring would be fine by me. He has signed discharge petitions seeking to bring both the constitutional amendment on marriage and the 20-week abortion ban to votes on the Senate floor.

I didn’t expect U.S. officials to provide 100 percent accurate details about the raid in which Osama Bin Laden was killed last Sunday, but I was surprised by how quickly the first version of events unraveled. There was no “firefight” to speak of, the woman killed had not been used as a human shield, and four of the five people killed in the Abbottabad compound were unarmed. Jeralyn Merritt discussed some of the confusion regarding who was killed and who else had been living at the compound. The Guardian summarized some details on the raid here. Speculation continues about how many people in Pakistani government or intelligence circles knew Bin Laden had been living in Abbottabad.

It was a mostly quiet week at the statehouse, as only a few Iowa House and Senate leaders hung around to keep negotiating with Governor Terry Branstad. They made no progress toward deals on property tax reform, education spending, overall budget targets or whether Iowa will adopt a one-year or a biennial budget.

Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer pulled a fast one on Friday. After saying “publicly there would be no floor action,” Upmeyer brought up and passed two politically-charged resolutions with fewer than five representatives in the chamber. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was particularly angry about House Resolution 52, which states that

the House of Representatives supports the imposition of a moratorium on enforcement of rules regulating greenhouse gas emissions for a period of at least two years, and a moratorium on enforcement of existing or proposed rules regulating air quality for at least two years […].

McCarthy said House Democrats will send “our own letter to Iowa’s congressional delegation to let them know we did not support this controversial legislation and it should not have been called up for debate in our absence.” I agree that Upmeyer was in the wrong here, but mostly I’m surprised to learn that McCarthy cares about greenhouse gas emissions and air quality rules. When Democrats controlled the Iowa House and Senate, leaders did virtually nothing to act on recommendations of the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council.

Finally, happy Mother’s Day to the Bleeding Heartland community. Julia Ward Howe had anti-war activism on her mind when she proposed the first American celebration of Mother’s Day in 1870, but few people today associate the holiday with the peace movement. In past years I’ve posted lots of mother-related links here and here.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend?

UPDATE: Congratulations to the nominees for the Women Food and Agriculture Network’s “2011 Sustainable Farming Moms of the Year.” Two of them are Iowans: Sandy McAntire of Chelsea and Paula Olson of Madrid.

SECOND UPDATE: Steve Kroft interviewed President Obama for 60 Minutes; the full transcript and video are here. After the jump I’ve posted an excerpt in which Obama talks about cooperation the U.S. has received from Pakistan, and possible official Pakistani knowledge of Bin Laden’s whereabouts.

Former State Senator Bill Heckroth announced today that he will run as a Democrat in Iowa House district 63 next year. Heckroth owns a financial planning business in Waverly, the largest town in the district. To my knowledge, Heckroth does not have a campaign website up yet. I’ve posted the Iowa House Democrats’ press release after the jump, along with a district map.

The new district 63 includes all of Bremer County and parts of northern Black Hawk County, outside the Waterloo and Cedar Falls city limits. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district, but independents have a plurality. As of April 2011, the district contained 5,225 registered Democrats, 6,395 registered Republicans and 9,128 no-party voters.

Aside from a few Black Hawk County precincts, the entire territory in the new House district 63 was part of the old Iowa Senate district 9, which Heckroth represented from 2007 through 2010. Here’s a map of that district. Over the past two decades, Heckroth has been involved with a wide variety of community organizations in Waverly; his press release lists them below. In his successful 2006 race, Heckroth outpolled Republican Tom Hoogestraat in both the Bremer and Black Hawk portions of the district. Heckroth lost his 2010 re-election bid to Bill Dix, who also had a strong base in Waverly, but even then Heckroth outperformed Governor Chet Culver in Bremer.

No current state representative lives in the new district 63. As far as I know, no Republican has announced plans to run in this district. Three-term House member Pat Grassley represents part of Bremer County; he could move to this district as a way to resolve being paired with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney in the new House district 50. However, that scenario seems unlikely. House district 50 has a much larger GOP voter registration advantage than district 63. Also, Sweeney voted against the redistricting plan while Grassley voted for it, suggesting that he will be able to stay put.

Last week, Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) brought up the need to end oil subsidies repeatedly during an Iowa Public Television appearance. This week, Boswell and other House Democrats requested “a full House Agriculture Committee hearing and investigation into the relationship between rising oil prices and Wall Street speculators.” So I was surprised to see Boswell vote for an offshore drilling bill the House approved on May 5.

Details on yesterday’s votes and Boswell’s recent statements on oil policy are after the jump.

Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje announced yesterday that he is exploring a race against three-term Democratic Representative Bruce Braley in Iowa’s first Congressional district. Rathje noted that “only one quarter of the American people believe our country is headed in the right direction.” With high rates of unemployment and underemployment bringing the country to “a tipping point economically,” Rathje touted his experience in creating or preserving manufacturing jobs in the U.S.  The full text of his press release is after the jump.

If Rathje runs against Braley, it would be his third attempt to win a seat in Congress. He finished a close third in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in 2008, behind Christopher Reed and George Eichhorn. Rathje finished a distant second to Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the Republican primary for the second Congressional district in 2010.

The economy will be the central issue in the next election, and Rathje may be well-positioned to talk about job creation. Click here to view one of his television commercials from last year’s IA-02 race. In addition, Republicans would be wise to run a candidate from Linn County against Braley. The Cedar Rapids metro area is the largest population center in the new IA-01, and Braley has not represented Linn before. I posted Iowa’s new Congressional map after the jump.

I’m not convinced Rathje has a strong enough Linn County base to make this race competitive, though. He carried Linn in the 2008 Senate primary but finished behind Ottumwa-based ophthalmologist Miller-Meeks in his home county in 2010. In fact, some Linn County GOP movers and shakers recruited Rob Gettemy to the IA-02 primary last year because they weren’t satisfied with the declared field against Democrat Dave Loebsack.

Rathje may also be too conservative to give Braley a tough challenge in a district with a partisan voting index of D+5, especially in a presidential election year. The 20 counties in the new IA-01 voted for Barack Obama over John McCain by a 58 to 40 percent margin in 2008, and for John Kerry over George W. Bush by a 53 to 46 percent margin in 2004.  

Terry Branstad was incensed last year when outgoing Governor Chet Culver quickly agreed to contract terms proposed by AFSCME and other unions representing state employees. Culver signed off on AFSCME’s request for a 2 percent across-the-board raise on July 1, 2011, followed by a 1 percent raise on January 1, 2012, another 2 percent raise on July 1, 2012, and a 1 percent raise on January 1, 2013. Other unions also asked for modest wage increases during the next two fiscal years.

On principle, Branstad felt Culver should have left the negotiating to the person who would be governor during the contract period. As a practical matter, Branstad insisted that the state of Iowa could not afford the salary hikes. He and other administration officials called on public sector unions to renegotiate the contracts, but union leaders refused to come back to the negotiating table.

This week Branstad formally asked the state legislature to give non-union state employees the same pay increases those represented by unions will receive.

While the governor continues to believe this contract spends too much money at a time when the state cannot afford it, there are not two classes of state employees, everyone is together and should be treated the same,” [Branstad’s spokesman Tim] Albrecht said.

The governor has not recommended the state pay for the upcoming salary increases. That means that state departments must find the money elsewhere in their budgets to pay for the salary increases.

House Study Bill 247 provides for the salary increases, as well as a few other things on the governor’s wish list. For instance, the bill would “lift the cap on the salary of Iowa’s economic development director, which Rep. Tyler Olson, D-Cedar Rapids, described as troubling.”

AFSCME and other state employee unions won this round, but count on a bruising battle when it’s time to negotiate contracts covering fiscal years 2014 and 2015. Branstad will resist pay increases and will demand benefit cuts, including substantial employee contributions to health insurance expenses. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the contracts for state employee unions end up in arbitration during the next go-around.

If Republicans gain an Iowa Senate majority in the 2012 elections, union-busting will be high on the agenda. A bill to limit state employees’ collective bargaining rights and curtail binding arbitration passed the Iowa House in March after a marathon floor debate. The bill died in the Iowa Senate Labor Committee.

P.S.–Branstad isn’t getting along much better with private-sector unions. Yesterday the Central Iowa Building and Construction Trades Council and the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Building Trades Council filed a federal lawsuit seeking to force the governor and other state entities to honor project labor agreements for construction projects in Coralville and Marshalltown.

Despite a well-funded campaign to extend the 1 percent local option sales tax for another 20 years, voters in the Cedar Rapids metro area (Cedar Rapids, Marion, Hiawatha, Robins and Fairfax, vote breakdown here) rejected the May 3 ballot measure by less than a 1 percent margin.

The defeat will be a blow to Mayor Ron Corbett, the City Council and a long list of the city’s largest and best-known employers. Those employers contributed to a fund-raising effort that raised nearly $500,000 to get the message out to the community that the city needed to help fund its own flood-protection system.

Corbett was hoping to head to Des Moines on Wednesday to tell lawmakers face-to-face that Cedar Rapidians had agreed to its part in flood-protection funding.

The “yes” campaign on the local option sales tax raised more than 100 times as much money as its opponents. The “no” campaign was a grassroots effort, lacking the funds for radio or television commercials.

Half of the funds raised over 20 years via the 1 percent sales tax were to be used for a flood prevention system protecting both sides of the river in Cedar Rapids. Corbett had argued that extending the sales tax would improve prospects for the city to receive state and federal funds for the project, estimated to cost approximately $375 million.

Legislation pending in the Iowa House and Senate would allow Cedar Rapids to use $200 million in state sales tax revenues for flood prevention over the next 20 years. The bill cleared the Senate Appropriations Committee last week, and a House Appropriations subcommittee advanced a companion bill on May 3. I doubt the Iowa House and Senate will pass this legislation now that Cedar Rapids area voters have rejected the local option sales tax–unless Cedar Rapids officials have a “plan B” up their sleeves.

Peter Fisher of the Iowa Policy Project and Iowa Fiscal Partnership has argued that creating a “state sales-tax-increment financing district” to fund flood prevention is a “gimmick.” In Fisher’s view, this method conceals real state spending (see also here). On the other hand, Cedar Rapids Gazette columnist Todd Dorman notes that hundreds of small businesses in neighborhoods near downtown will be hurt if the flood prevention plan fails to materialize.

On a related note, the future of the $75 million Cedar Rapids Convention Complex project is uncertain. City officials and Governor Terry Branstad’s administration have not resolved differences over a project labor agreement signed a month before Branstad issued an executive order banning such labor agreements on state-funded projects. On May 3, the Central Iowa Building and Construction Trades Council and the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Building Trades Council filed a federal lawsuit seeking to force Branstad to honor project labor agreements for construction projects in Coralville and Marshalltown.

The trades councils’ lawsuit said that the governor and the state have breached their contract with the labor councils by eliminating project labor agreements is place before the governor took office. The lawsuit also states that the governor’s action violates the Iowa Constitution regarding separation of powers, Iowa’s Home Rule law and federal law.

The outcome of that lawsuit could determine whether the Branstad administration is able to withhold $15 million in state I-JOBS funds for the Cedar Rapids Convention Complex project. The Iowa Finance Authority threatened to do so in February, and the governor rejected compromises Corbett proposed to honor the project labor agreement as well as the spirit of Branstad’s executive order.

UPDATE: More reaction to yesterday’s vote is after the jump.