As the primary race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton moves on, the question of electability will become more and more important.
This moring at Century of the Common Iowan, I took a look at the 2008 electoral map. Using these numbers, Obama would be at 259 electoral votes by adding up the states that are strong democratic, likely democratic, and lean democratic.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): Lean Democratic ↑
Maine (4 electoral votes*): Lean Democratic ↑
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic ↓
Michigan (17 electoral votes): Lean Democratic↑
Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Oregon (7 electoral votes): LeanDemocratic
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
Washington (11 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
Obama would then need to win 21 more electoral votes to get to 270 and win the election. Here are the states that are the article considered as toss ups…
Colorado (9 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Virginia (13 electoral votes): Toss-Up ↓
Missouri (11 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Ohio (20 electoral votes): Toss-Up
New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Iowa (7 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Obama losing Ohio this week has brought some to question if Obama will be able to win Ohio.
By looking at recent poll numbers in these states, Obama would be able to win the nomination without winning Ohio and Florida.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Des Moines Register poll on 2/24
Obama 53%
McCain 36%
Survey USA poll on 2/19
Obama 51%
McCain 41%
Rasmussen on 2/21
Obama 44%
McCain 41%
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Survey USA poll on 2/19
Obama 55%
McCain 40%
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Rassmussen on 2/13
Obama 46%
McCain 39%
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Survey USA poll on 2/19
Obama 51%
McCain 45%
Rasmussen on 2/21
Obama 44%
McCain 49%
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Survey USA on 2/19
Obama 49%
McCain 43%
Rassmussen on 2/13
Obama 40%
McCain 42%
These poll numbers suggest that Obama would win Iowa (7), Colorado (9), and New Mexico (5). This would give Obama exactly 270 electoral votes.
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