I will update later when more results are available. For now, I am taking these Nevada results from TPM:

Clinton 51 percent

Obama 45

Edwards 4

Romney 52 percent

Paul 13

McCain 13

Huckabee 8

Thompson 8

Giuliani 4

Hunter 2

Time for Edwards and Obama supporters to face some hard truths.

Even if he had won Iowa and gotten the unions to jump off the fence, it looks like Edwards would not have been able to take Nevada from Hillary.

If Obama couldn’t win this state despite getting favorable media coverage, more than 80 percent of the black vote (according to entrance polling), and the key union endorsements in Nevada, then it seems that no one could have beaten Clinton here.

Hillary won at least 6 of the 9 at-large precincts on the Las Vegas strip, and one of them was a tie. Those precincts supposedly were going to be dominated by the Culinary Union, which backed Obama. That’s why Clinton supporters went to court (unsuccessfully) to try to block the at-large precincts. But Culinary was not able to deliver for Obama in most of those precincts.

I haven’t seen any data yet on what percentage of Democratic caucus-goers were independents or Republicans who switched party affiliation. Total turnout shattered predictions and exceeded 114,000.

Many of the February 5 states will hold closed primaries, which means Obama will not benefit from strong support among independents and Republicans.

Entrance polling in Nevada suggests that Clinton led Obama 51-38 among women (who made up 59 percent of caucus-goers) and crushed Obama 64-26 among Latinos. That suggests a steep uphill climb for Obama in some of the larger February 5 states.

Obama supporters have been calling for Edwards to drop out, but I am not convinced that doing so would benefit Obama. In South Carolina, Edwards is  taking more away from Hillary.

Whichever candidate you favor, it’s obvious that Clinton is in the driver’s seat. She will have to make some big mistakes to lose the nomination now.

Obama was not able to put her away in New Hampshire, and it’s going to cost him big.

I just learned about the blog 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. It looks like a good place for political junkies to bookmark and check from time to time. The focus is “News and views about the 2008 Democratic National Convention and the race for the nomination.”

There’s a delegate counter and archive of past blog posts on the left-hand side of the page.

Recent posts include this one listing all of the “superdelegates” who have endorsed each of the Democratic candidates. If you click through, there is a link to a list of all the superdelegates who have not yet committed to a candidate.

You can also learn about the DNC’s standing committees on credentials, platform and rules, including who will co-chair each of those committees.

Some of you may be interested in this post about how to apply to be one of the DNC’s official state bloggers. Apparently one blogger from each state will be credentialed at the convention in Denver.  

Iowa Politics has a story up about the possible retirement of State Senator Larry McKibben in Senate District 22.

Sen. Larry McKibben, R-Marshalltown, chose not to seek the Senate minority leader post in September because of work-related responsibilities. He said Thursday he hasn't decided if his name will appear on the November ballot.

“I am talking it over with my family,” McKibben said. “I will make my decision in the next couple weeks.”

McKibben won reelection in 2004 by less than 800 votes, in a race where over $425,000 was spent. McKibben might not be looking forward to another long summer and fall on the campaign trail or the time trying to raise that much cash.

Democrats already have a candidate who announced his campaign for McKibben's seat in Steve Sodders, a Deputy Sheriff in Marshall County. Sodders has been knocking on doors throughout the district this fall and has been working hard raising money. Sodders has two fundraisers coming up in the next few weeks.

The Nevada caucuses and the GOP primary in South Carolina take place tomorrow. How do you think the candidates will do? Here is my stab in the dark:

Nevada

Clinton 42

Obama 38

Edwards 20

Romney 35

McCain 30

Huckabee 15

Paul 5

Thompson 3

Giuliani 2

South Carolina

McCain 32

Huckabee 28

Thompson 20

Romney 12

Giuliani 5

Paul 3

I saw in today’s Des Moines Register that a recent random phone survey of 354 registered voters in my corner of the world found that 99 percent are satisfied with the quality of life in Windsor Heights, and 89 percent described the city services and quality of life as “above average.”

The poll reached a substantial proportion of adults in Windsor Heights, which has a total population of just under 5,000.

I am not too surprised by the survey. Windsor Heights is no more than a 10-15 minute drive from most spots in the Des Moines metro area (it takes about 20 minutes to get to the airport and the zoo). There are some nice locally-owned shops and restaurants, as well as a huge Hy-Vee and Wal-Mart for those who like big box stores. The city services are generally good, and houses for sale usually move quickly, unless they are obviously overpriced.

There are two good elementary schools in the suburb (Cowles Montessori in the Des Moines Public Schools and Clive Elementary in the West Des Moines school district). Windsor Elementary in the Des Moines Public Schools is just a few blocks over the border in Des Moines and also has a good reputation.

I live in the house I grew up in, which my parents bought in 1968. When I started volunteering as a precinct captain for the Kerry campaign in 2003, I was amazed by how many parents of my childhood friends still lived in the homes they bought in the 1950s or 1960s. A lot of Democrats I didn’t know recognized my name and told me they remembered my parents or one of my siblings.

We have friends who moved to a home about a half-mile from ours this past summer, and they bought that home from the original owners.

Windsor Heights was heavily Republican during my childhood, but like inner-ring suburbs across the country, it has become more Democratic over the years. Unfortunately, we are in very Republican districts (dominated by other suburban neighborhoods) for the Iowa House and Senate.

Consider this an open thread to talk about the virtues of your city or your neighborhood.

Thanks again to Betsy for the roundup. -desmoinesdem

Here is your roundup for the eve of the Nevada Caucuses.  Scroll to the bottom and head on over to My Silver State for some excellent and balanced (they actually admit John Edwards exists) coverage of the top three Democratic candidates.

The writers at the state blogs are working hard to bring us the latest on the Dem congressional candidates.  Check them out, especially if you live in a very red district and need a Democrat to adopt.

Hillary Clinton’s surprise win in the New Hampshire primary put her campaign back on track, and most observers would agree that she is slightly favored to win the nomination now.

However, Barack Obama seems set to win South Carolina, and if he can win Nevada as well (which seems likely, given his union endorsements), then he would have more momentum going into the February 5 primaries. More than 20 states will vote that day. So far Clinton leads Obama in most of them, but momentum can change a lot.

The Obama campaign has rolled out a lot of endorsements since New Hampshire, including:

Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska

Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona

Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri

Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota

Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts

Congressmembers George Miller and Zoe Lofgren of California

Ned Lamont of the Connecticut Democratic Party

UPDATE: noneed4thneed points out that I forgot Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont and former Senator Gary Hart of Colorado. And speaking of Hart, wouldn’t he have been a great president? Just bad luck to be running the cycle that the media decided an affair disqualified someone from contention.

Those people represent a mixture of red, purple and blue states. I am still not convinced that Obama is more electable than Clinton, but these people seem to disagree.

Obama’s campaign in Nevada is putting a lot of emphasis on urging Republicans and independents to vote for him. Listen to these radio ads he is running, which do not mention the Democratic Party and inform independents and Republicans that they can caucus for him:

I’ve got a post in my head in response to Obama’s recent comments about Ronald Reagan. Actually, this post has been in my head for some time, as Obama is both too much like Reagan for my comfort level, yet not enough like Reagan to realign American politics in the Democrats’ favor. I will save that post for another day, when I have more time to write.

As Chase Martyn reported for Iowa Independent, Ed Fallon officially announced on Wednesday that he will challenge Leonard Boswell for the Democratic nomination in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

Populista put up a diary here urging people to vote for Ed as Democracy for America’s “All-Star” candidate. I have already done so, and I hope you will too.

I’ll be writing more about this race in the coming months. For now, I want to briefly lay out the case for supporting Fallon’s challenge.

Leonard Boswell is a good person. I have voted for him every time and have contributed to his Congressional campaigns. However, he has been too willing to go along with the Bush administration on too many issues. He has voted to repeal the estate tax based on specious arguments from the Grover Norquist crowd. He voted for Bush’s horrible energy bill. He has voted to enable the Bush administration’s policies on Iraq and torture.

We have a chance to get a rock-solid progressive in this seat, and we should take it. While in the legislature, Ed Fallon had a 100 percent voting record on choice and labor issues, and was very strong on the environment and many other areas of importance.

Boswell sits on the Transportation Committee and has done nothing to help bring our national transportation policy back into balance. Fallon is talking about the need to get a handle on urban sprawl and invest in alternative forms of transportation as well as new road construction.

We are going to hear a lot from the Democratic Party establishment about Fallon supposedly being unelectable. I want those people to explain to me why Boswell’s winning margin in 2006 was so much less than Chet Culver’s winning margin in the counties that make up the third district.

Many Democrats, particularly progressives, simply do not feel that Boswell is representing our interests well enough.

Fallon has the potential to draw cross-over votes from independents and Republicans. He did it in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, and he can do it again. But just as important, he is a candidate Democrats can enthusiastically vote for.

Those who say that we can’t take a risk on replacing Boswell also need to explain their game plan for holding on to Iowa’s third district after the 2010 census. Iowa is going to lose a Congressional seat when the districts are redrawn. The most likely scenario I can see is that Boswell would retire in 2012, leaving us with no incumbent to run against Tom Latham or Steve King in the newly-drawn third district.

We are better off getting a new incumbent in place before that happens.

Finally, I believe that Fallon’s challenge will benefit Democrats even if he does not win the primary. As Chris Bowers reported last month at Open Left, Boswell voted against an Iraq funding bill for the first time ever after rumors about Fallon’s challenge started circulating.

I have also heard that Boswell recently signed onto a global-warming pledge that he refused to sign months earlier, when Congressmen Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack backed it.

We’ve seen the voting records of other Democratic incumbents improve after progressives challenged them in primaries. Jane Harman and Ellen Tauscher of California come to mind. If Boswell does win the primary, I expect that his Congressional votes will better represent the will of his constituents.

If Fallon wins the primary, we will be favored to elect a strong progressive to this seat, given his base in Polk County and the expected high turnout for Democrats in a presidential election year.

I respect the views of Bleeding Heartland readers who are sticking with Boswell, but I urge you to consider the case for Fallon. If you already support Fallon, please consider donating to or volunteering for his campaign. They will need all hands on deck, since the party establishment will line up behind Boswell.

I watched the rerun of the debate last night and thought all three candidates did well enough. Apparently Frank Luntz’s focus group favored Edwards, but supporters of all three candidates had plenty to cheer on.

If you want to read why Clinton “rocked,” click on alegre’s diary with video clips:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

If you want the pro-Obama version, Steven R has clips and analysis for you here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Edwards fans will enjoy NCDemAmy’s diary, also with video clips:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

Maryland's Governor Martin O'Malley is being strongly urged by his top energy advisor to take aggressive steps to cut energy consumption, and the state should create a multimillion-dollar fund to give homeowners an array of incentives to use less power.

The blueprint, to be released by the Maryland Energy Administration, will offer 20 proposals to help O'Malley (D) deliver on his ambitious pledge to reduce the state's energy consumption by 15 percent in seven years and stave off rolling blackouts that experts predict could occur in three years.

The report recommends that the state encourage the fledgling solar and wind energy industries to invest in the region and help Maryland more than double its use of renewable power.

Iowa Governor Chet Culver has been a proponent of renewable energy, creating the Iowa Power Fund, the Iowa Office of Energy Independence, and saying he wants Iowa to become the renewable energy capital of the world.

Culver has made a goal for Iowa to produce enough wind energy by 2015 to power 500,000 homes and cut carbon emissions by more than 7 billion tons per year. It seems that a program like the one in Maryland would help Culver and Iowans reach this goal.

Instead there are plans to build coal-fired power plants in Marshalltown and Waterloo that would emit more carbon into the air.

If Culver was serious about making Iowa into the renewable energy capital, one would think he would be stressing cutting energy use.

Check out the Nevada progressive community blog My Silver State and the MyDD posts by Las Vegas resident and precinct chair desmoulins.

As I posted a few days ago, this is the time to take action to stop a new coal-fired power plant from being built in Marshalltown. Coal not only contributes to global warming, it also increases the rate of asthma in nearby residents, as well as mercury levels in fish.

The Iowa Utility Board will hold hearings starting tomorrow, January 14, at 10 am. The hearings will take place at the Whitehall Auditorium on the grounds of the Iowa Veterans Home (1301 Summit St, Marshalltown).

The invaluable noneed4thneed has information on the testimony of Iowa native James Hansen, a climate scientist from NASA.

After the jump I’m putting information about events this week organized by the Cedar Rapids-based environmental law group Plains Justice. For more on that group, check out their website.

If you attend any of these events, or hearings at the IUB, please put up a diary with your impressions.

If you ever want to look up which states are voting on which dates this year, click on this page at the Project Vote Smart site.  

I urge all of you to click on this diary by MyDD user Silver Spring, who analyzed the county-level results from Iowa and New Hampshire.

I am not convinced by all of the arguments in this diary, but it is a great piece of work. I have asked Silver Spring to cross-post here, so I can promote it to the front page. In the meantime, you all should head over to MyDD and read it for yourself.

I haven’t yet had a chance to dig into the county-level results from Iowa, so I greatly appreciate this effort.

This kind of in-depth analysis sets the blogs apart from superficial mainstream media coverage.

Thanks to Betsy for the roundup. -desmoinesdem

Once again the writers at the state community blogs are busy staying on top of local and state news and bringing local flavor to national news. It takes longer each week to pull this together because I find myself caught up in reading the excellent coverage provided by these state blogs.

Find an interesting post and jump in the conversation. If you don’t see your state represented here, check out the state blogroll at Open Left or MyDD.

The rest is after the jump.

Dennis Kucinich and some Republican I’ve never heard of demanded full hand recounts of the results from the New Hampshire primary, and they will get their wish.

I welcome this news. I doubt there were any serious irregularities in how votes were counted, but anything that restores people’s faith in the election process is good in my view.

In case you haven’t been following this story on other blogs, some Obama supporters have alleged that voting machines were rigged to hand victory to Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

Yesterday Bill Richardson announced he was ending his presidential run and dropping out of the race. Richardson was hoping to do well Nevada next week, but was polls weren't favorable. Richardson had nothing to gain to by getting blown out in Nevada. Plus, the New Mexico legislative session is starting up soon and he can get back to his duties as Governor.

Richardson was one of my final 3 choices. Out of all of the candidates, I agreed most with his plan for Iraq. Richardson understands that US troops in Iraq are targets, stuck in the middle of a civil war, and unfortunately are adding fuel to the fire over there. He also was very strong on education issues. He had the strongest position against NCLB, saying the law is unworkable and needed to be tossed out. He pushed for a minimum wage for teachers of $40,000.

In the end, Richardson's campaign was too focused on the issues and lacked an overriding theme. Richardson should have used his background as a diplomat and made diplomacy the them of this campaign. He could have created a vision of bringing people on all sides together to successfully end the war in Iraq, solve immigration, improve education. Instead he focused on his plans to solve these issues.

Oh, my. Watch this ad Mike Huckabee is currently running in Michigan (hat tip to noneed4thneed).

Key line:

I believe most Americans want their next President to remind them of they guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off.

Michigan is must-win for Mitt Romney, whose father used to be governor of the state. That line should be devastating for him.

Huckabee has long been despised by the Club for Growth set. He wisely decided that as a presidential candidate, he would do better to advocate for middle-class interests rather than pandering to the business wing of the GOP. Noneed4thneed put up this amazing clip of Huckabee on Hardball a few months ago. It’s worth watching. I still can’t believe a Republican presidential candidate is willing to say his party should stop being “a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wall Street and the corporations.”

If you missed this a few weeks ago, take Politico’s “populist pop quiz” and try to guess which quotations are from Huckabee and which are from John Edwards.

I do worry about the prospect of running against Huckabee. He is a strong communicator, and he could pull Reagan Democrats his way.

On the other hand, a lot of moderate Republicans would probably vote Democrat if he were the nominee. Also, it shouldn’t be hard for our candidate to make the public understand what a truly awful idea the “fair tax” is.

I'm not watching, but if you are, please share your impressions of that crowd.

While I still think Edwards would be our best candidate against the Republicans, lately I've been thinking that if we only could choose among the front-runners, Obama would do better against Huckabee, while Hillary might do better against McCain. Either of them would crush Romney. What do you think?

UPDATE: I caught most of the rerun on Fox. Apparently the focus group liked Thompson, which amazes me. Huckabee is clearly the superior communicator in my mind. He has a talent for keeping your attention without overdoing it.

MyDD user desmoulins, who has been trained as a temporary precinct chair for the upcoming Nevada caucuses, posted this useful diary on the differences between the Nevada caucus rules and the ones drafted by the Iowa Democratic Party.

I encourage you all to click the link and read his diary, along with the discussion thread. We would benefit from incorporating some of the changes Nevada Democrats have made.

One key difference is that in Nevada, only supporters of non-viable candidates will be able to switch to a different corner during the realignment period. That will cut down on the gamesmanship whereby precinct captains of viable candidates direct a small number of people to a rival corner in order to change the delegate count.

UPDATE: desmoulins put up this interesting post about the campaign on the ground in Nevada:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…