I will update later when more results are available. For now, I am taking these Nevada results from TPM:
Clinton 51 percent
Obama 45
Edwards 4
Romney 52 percent
Paul 13
McCain 13
Huckabee 8
Thompson 8
Giuliani 4
Hunter 2
Time for Edwards and Obama supporters to face some hard truths.
Even if he had won Iowa and gotten the unions to jump off the fence, it looks like Edwards would not have been able to take Nevada from Hillary.
If Obama couldn’t win this state despite getting favorable media coverage, more than 80 percent of the black vote (according to entrance polling), and the key union endorsements in Nevada, then it seems that no one could have beaten Clinton here.
Hillary won at least 6 of the 9 at-large precincts on the Las Vegas strip, and one of them was a tie. Those precincts supposedly were going to be dominated by the Culinary Union, which backed Obama. That’s why Clinton supporters went to court (unsuccessfully) to try to block the at-large precincts. But Culinary was not able to deliver for Obama in most of those precincts.
I haven’t seen any data yet on what percentage of Democratic caucus-goers were independents or Republicans who switched party affiliation. Total turnout shattered predictions and exceeded 114,000.
Many of the February 5 states will hold closed primaries, which means Obama will not benefit from strong support among independents and Republicans.
Entrance polling in Nevada suggests that Clinton led Obama 51-38 among women (who made up 59 percent of caucus-goers) and crushed Obama 64-26 among Latinos. That suggests a steep uphill climb for Obama in some of the larger February 5 states.
Obama supporters have been calling for Edwards to drop out, but I am not convinced that doing so would benefit Obama. In South Carolina, Edwards is taking more away from Hillary.
Whichever candidate you favor, it’s obvious that Clinton is in the driver’s seat. She will have to make some big mistakes to lose the nomination now.
Obama was not able to put her away in New Hampshire, and it’s going to cost him big.
2 Comments
Question on Nevada results
What do you think of the NV Dem Party’s decision to report raw county convention delegate totals instead of state delegate equivalents? The AP and the Obama campaign are saying that Obama’s rural strength puts him on track to win 13 out of the 25 national convention delegates at stake (in a sense) today.
softpower Sat 19 Jan 8:32 PM
I read the same thing
but whether Obama walks away with 12 or 13 convention delegates is less important than Clinton’s edge over him among key voting blocs, which will affect the outcome on February 5.
desmoinesdem Sat 19 Jan 8:55 PM