UPDATE: I just assumed that with only a 50% success rate in the benchmark report that maybe the Administration’s report was slightly accurate or truthful.  Bad decision.

According to the National Security Network, at least 6 of the 8 “satisfactory” ratings were basically bullshit and inflated facts.  Check out their report here.

– – – – – –

Back in elementary school, the Des Moines Public Schools used to grade us on an odd scale compared to other kids my age (or so I thought).  It was on sort of a pass/fail system, but they called it ‘Satisfactory or Unsatisfactory.’  Basically, you were graded with an S or N.  When reading through the administration’s final report on Iraqi benchmarks, it became clear to me that they have no idea what the fuck they’re doing.

President Bush held a press conference today and called the report’s results “a cause for optimism.”  Bullshit.

There were 18 specified benchmarks.  According to the report, only 8 were considered “satisfactory” and 8 were “unsatisfactory” with 2 that were a mixed bag.  If we’re going to judge simply on a pass fail mechanism it seems pretty clear to me that the Iraqis have failed to meet benchmarks (and even the ones they did meet they had to do largely with our help).

If I came home with a report card like this–after repeatedly failing for 4 previous years–my parents would be pissed and would look to change something.

Evidently Bush and Co. didn’t learn that lesson.  God help us.

Well, well, well.  It looks like Senate Democrats are finally starting to play hardball with President Bush.  From Nicole Duran at IowaPolitics.com:

“Senate Democrats aren’t feeling very charitable toward former GOP Rep. Jim Nussle.

Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) confirmed Tuesday that an anonymous “hold” has been placed on Nussle’s nomination to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Conrad said he did not know who placed the hold — any senator can prevent a nomination, or legislation, from coming to the floor by objecting, even anonymously, to the Senate majority leader. Holds are traditionally honored, though the majority leader may ignore it if he feels the hold has been placed for too long.”

I’m not sure what prompted Senate Dems to start getting tough on Bush and his nominees, but I’m willing to bet that his threatened veto of any pullout legislation on the Defense Authorization is partially the cause.

Nussle has consistently been a Bush clone and loyal foot soldier doing as commanded with regards to the federal budget.  He helped oversee the creation of the largest debts and deficits in recent American history.  That’s a principled enough reason to oppose his nomination, if you ask me.

I’ve got the story over at Iowa Independent.  In addition to rolling out a new campaign website at TomHarkin.com (that has a blog!) seeking to build Iowa’s netroots community, Harkin is also reaffirming his progressive commitments to Iowans and will actively support the Feingold-Reid Amendment which Sen. Russ Feingold will again be offering before the full Senate, this time on the Defense Authorization bill.

Good for Tom Harkin.  I feel sorry for whatever unlucky congressman decides to take him on in 2008.

DMD highlighted her thoughts on Sen. Joe Biden's campaign for the presidency yesterday and they're definitely worth a read.  If you're curious to learn more about Biden and judge DMD's conclusions on your own with firsthand experience, then make sure to check out Biden when he's in town on Friday.  Here are the quick details of an event he'll be at:

IOWAPOLITICS.COM – DRAKE UNIVERSITY “COOKIES AND CONVERSATION” EVENT
U.S. SENATOR JOE BIDEN
FRIDAY, JULY 13TH

STATE HISTORICAL BUILDING, 600 E. LOCUST, DES MOINES, IOWA 
DOORS OPEN AT 11 A.M.  EVENT BEGINS AT 11:30 A.M.

(RSVP REQUIRED-CALL 515.271.3747 or email iowacaucuses@drake.edu)

You can find the full release from Drake and IowaPolitics.com below the fold.  I'm not sure if I'll be in attendance yet, but if you haven't been to a Biden event yet you should go just to see him talk your ear off and answer every question. 

This post comes from Chris Bowers of OpenLeft and BlogPac.

  For the past year, as part of our ongoing effort to support the progressive blogosphere and movement, BlogPac has delivered over four-dozen targeted, no-strings-attached grants to progressive activists, organizations, campaigns, and media outlets around the country. Now, we would like to both expand and open up our grant making process, and give your progressive movement building idea a chance to receive one of our grants. As such, today BlogPac is launching a nationwide contest to find the five best new, grassroots progressive infrastructure projects in America, and provide those projects with the money, exposure, and connections necessary to get off the ground.

If you’re a Bleeding Heartland reader in Polk, Warren, or Dallas counties make sure you get out and vote today on the 28E Agreement, more generally known as Project Destiny.

Both desmoinesdem and myself have urged a no vote in previous posts (see here, here, here, and here) but if you want more information before you head out to your polling place, you can read information from Yes to Destiny (supporters) here and from NoLocalOption.com (opponents) here.

Finally, to find your polling location, click here.

Oh, and let us know what turnout is like in your area after you’ve voted.  I’m curious.

I'm tied up this morning and can't go to either event, but Hillary Clinton will give a speech on Iraq at 10 am Tuesday at the Temple for Performing Arts in downtown Des Moines.

At the same time, Obama will hold a town hall meeting on the economy at DMACC's urban campus.

Link:

http://www.siouxcity…

Who can build a bigger crowd on such short notice? Hillary's campaign announced the event on Saturday, Obama's campaign announced on Monday.

If you attend either of these events, post a comment below to tell us what you thought.

On July 5 Dick Gephardt officially endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. I assume that he will be campaigning for her in Iowa, since he won the caucuses in 1988 and had a fair amount of support here even in his disappointing fourth-place finish last cycle.

My question to Bleeding Heartland readers is, how much does this help Hillary? Gephardt was not viable in my precinct in either 1988 or 2004, and I don't know a lot of people who backed him. I know that he had a lot of support from organized labor. Will they care that he is endorsing Hillary?

Speaking as someone who worked her butt off for Kerry before the last Iowa caucuses, if Kerry came out and endorsed one of the other presidential candidates, I wouldn't even consider rethinking my choice. Kerry's preference among the current Democratic field is totally irrelevant to me.

Will Gephardt's backing carry more weight with the people who supported him?

Politico takes an in depth look at the Republican field in Iowa and concludes Mitt Romney has a commanding lead in the state. They discuss McCain cutting back staff, ask if Rudy is taking Iowa seriously, and they take a look at the darkhorse campaigns of Brownback, Huckabee, and Tommy Thompson.

Politico does point out a possible winning strategy for Giuliani…

For Giuliani, his best caucus hopes may lie in the politics of pluralities. Should Thompson play in Iowa, conservatives may split their vote between the actor/politician and Romney, with some second-tier candidates also picking up support.

Romney has put together a good organization in Iowa, has raised the money, and was the first one airing TV ads in the state. That has obviously helped him gain support. However, one reason Romney looks so strong in Iowa is because the other candidates look so weak. Romney's lead is as much from his work as it is because of the other candidates lack of support.

The second tier candidates haven't been able to spark much enthusiasm. I don't see the excitement on the Republican side in Iowa that I do on the Democratic side. That could be from the quality of candidates, it could be from Bush's sinking poll numbers, or it could just be how each party sets up their campaigns.

In the end, they quote Sioux County chairman, where they say…

There are still a number of conservatives who are looking for somebody that they can rally behind,” Lundberg said. “At some point, you'll make a decision to back somebody and you're going to put time and effort into it — and it's tough to put time and effort in a losing cause.

What I want to know is what Republicans plan on doing if they decided all the candidates are losers?

Originally posted at Century of the Common Iowan. 

I wrote a diary for Daily Kos and MyDD about Joe Biden being someone to watch in Iowa. I think it's a mistake for bloggers to be writing him off as a joke.

I put the whole diary after the jump. Be warned: it's long, and some of it is written for an audience that may not understand how the caucuses work.

Bottom line is that none of the front-runners should be taking anything for granted in Iowa. A lot of voters will thoroughly consider all the options before making up their minds.

I'm interested in your comments, either here or at one of the other sites:

http://www.dailykos….

http://www.mydd.com/…

UPDATE: I get mass e-mails from most of the campaigns, including Biden's. In my most surreal blogging-related experience ever, this evening the latest e-mail from his campaign links to my DKos diary!

I can't wait until the special election set for July 10 is over. I am tired of the glossy mailers, the phone-calls and the radio ads run by the extremely well-funded “Yes to Destiny” campaign.

The direct mail pieces have done more harm than good, with the first one conveniently touting the property tax cut without mentioning the 17 percent increase in the sales tax (from 6 percent to 7 percent).

Then they sent out a piece misquoting some elderly woman in Urbandale who rents and therefore wouldn't even see any benefits from the property tax cut.

I've gotten an e-mail from the Des Moines Art Center containing an absentee ballot request form–the mailing urged me to vote yes on the tax hike.

Today in the car I heard a radio ad for the Blank Park Zoo talking about all the great ways they'll be able to expand the zoo if people vote Yes to Destiny. No mention of the fact that they will be turning half of a county park (currently free and available to the public) into zoo exhibits people will have to pay to see. We've been very regular zoo visitors over the past couple of years, thanks to our toddler/preschooler, but this summer I've been going a lot less because that proposed land grab makes me really angry.

I still think voters are going to soundly reject the Destiny proposal, but the backers are doing GOTV–who knows, maybe they will identify enough supporters and get them to the polls. 

I got a phone call purporting to be a survey, asking me how I would vote on the upcoming special election (without specifying what the election was about). I said I was voting against, and the guy thanked me for my time and ended the call. When I asked who paid for the call, he said Destiny. Presumably, if I had indicated that I was planning to vote for the proposal, I would have been given information about where and when to vote. 

One of the biggest tools in the GOP public relations toolbox is the use of “think tanks” and other non-profits to support conservative pundits financially while they make the rounds on talk radio, newspaper editorial writing, and of course – Fox News.  The conservative establishment is very good about taking care of their own.

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo found a great new example with a little digging today.

So I inadvertently started a flamewar on Daily Kos and MyDD today by posting a diary about the Clinton campaign being missing in action from July 4 parades in the Des Moines suburbs. The Clintonistas were outraged that (to their mind) my headline implied that the Clinton campaign did not take part in any parades, when we all know that Bill and Hillary marched in the Clear Lake parade.

You can find the DKos version of the flamewar here here or the MyDD version here (the angry Clinton mob was a little less active at MyDD).

My point was that there was no Clinton campaign presence at the Windsor Heights parade I attended, and according to others I talked to, Clinton's campaign didn't have a vehicle in the Urbandale or West Des Moines parades either.

That surprised me, because Obama, Edwards and Richardson were well represented with campaign workers and/or volunteers. (The organizer of the Windsor Heights parade told me later that Biden's campaign was also in the parade, but I didn't notice them.) 

The Edwards people were able to get quite a few supporter cards signed during these parades. We were watching for people who waved or cheered as the Edwards truck rolled by, and three or four people ran up to those spectators and asked them if they would sign up as Edwards supporters. I didn't catch the number for the WDM parade, but I think they got about 65 cards signed during the Urbandale parade and another 15 to 20 in Windsor Heights.

The team also handed out a lot of Edwards stickers in WDM and Urbandale, but had run out early in the Windsor Heights parade.

Obama and Richardson people were handing out tons of stickers in Windsor Heights. My husband, who was with the kids on the side, was pretty sure he saw an Obama staffer with a clipboard as well, who was probably getting supporter cards signed. He wasn't sure whether anyone with the Richardson group was handing out cards. But yesterday evening at the big Windsor Heights celebration in Colby Park, I saw lots of people still sporting their Obama and Richardson stickers.

The point of my diary was that this was a missed opportunity for the Clinton campaign. Thousands of people watch these parades. I've got to believe there were Clinton supporters and leaners who would have signed up if there had been staffers out there spotting them and asking them. I know staff was probably preoccupied with the Clintons' Iowa tour, but the fact that Obama was in Iowa didn't prevent his campaign from having a strong presence in all of the parades.

A woman I know well in my neighborhood is a Clinton leaner (she says she needs more info about the other candidates before making up her mind). She's a general election voter who rarely votes in primaries. Despite many contacts from me last cycle, she and her husband did not attend our precinct caucus. So she is unlikely to turn up on a list of Ds to target in my precinct. I saw her along the parade route with her kids. If there had been a Clinton presence, I bet she would have taken a sticker or possibly signed up. They could have then targeted her closer to caucus time for GOTV efforts. But how will they find her now?

With Teresa Vilmain running the show and the Vilsacks on board, and plenty of money, I am surprised that the Clinton campaign didn't make sure they had a strong presence in all of the Des Moines-area parades.

What do you think, and which campaigns did you see in your towns? 

Incidentally, the only Republican campaign in the Windsor Heights parade was Brownback's; they were also in Urbandale and West Des Moines. I assume that some of the other Republican candidates were in those larger suburban parades. 

I'm off to march in the Windsor Heights parade with the Edwards group. I don't think I'll be doing any blogging today, but noneedthneed is going to be very busy, so click over to Century of the Common Iowan (link is on the blogroll at the right) for his write-ups.

While you're at it, check out the other Iowa liberal blogs, including John Deeth and Iowa Independent, which have published lots of campaign coverage lately.

I must say, though, that I find it distracting to read those liveblog posts that go backward in time as you're reading from the top down.

Got an e-mail from Tom Harkin announcing that his wife Ruth is endorsing Hillary. Here's an excerpt:

She feels that women who are lucky enough to serve in public office had, and continue to have, a responsibility to opening doors and paving a new way for those seeking other leadership roles. And as Ruth looked closely at who is best suited to do the job of President and to inspire a new generation of leaders, Hillary topped the list.

Thanks a lot, Ruth. If Hillary loses the general to a Republican who puts two or three more Alitos on the Supreme Court, I hope you'll apologize to all women.

Of the many things that bother me about the Hillary Clinton candidacy, one of the biggest is this idea that women are supposed to back her as a pathbreaker (with the corollary that people who don't back her are sexist or can't handle strong women). Hillary would be a weak general election candidate, and I don't even think she would be the best president out of the current field.

The e-mail also mentions that Tom Harkin has no plans to endorse any of the presidential candidates. Smart move, senator. 

Remember how the Republicans always told us Clinton's impeachment wasn't about the sex, it was about the lying? That is, the false affadavit Clinton signed in connection with a civil case.

Scooter Libby committed perjury (lied to a grand jury) and made false statements in connection with a criminal case. Not just any criminal case, an investigation into the leaking of a covert CIA agent's name. Despite his all-star legal team, Libby was convicted on four out of five counts of perjury and making false statements.

Well, Bush made a big show of saying he would fire anyone involved in leaking covert CIA agent Valerie Plame's name to the media. But when push came to shove, he didn't do it, and he made sure that convicted felon Scooter Libby didn't see a day in prison for lying to the FBI and to a grand jury.

Today, after a court ruled against Libby's efforts to delay his prison sentence until after he had exhausted his appeals, Bush commuted Libby's sentence to probation and a $250,000 fine. That fine is meaningless–Bush pioneers have been raising millions of dollars for Libby.

TPM Cafe has been keeping track of reaction to the commutation by politicians of both parties. 

I found this nugget at Talking Points Memo particularly interesting. This comes from the Department of Justice manual on commutations, with emphasis added by Josh Marshall:

Section 1-2.113 Standards for Considering Commutation Petitions 

A commutation of sentence reduces the period of incarceration; it does not imply forgiveness of the underlying offense, but simply remits a portion of the punishment. It has no effect upon the underlying conviction and does not necessarily reflect upon the fairness of the sentence originally imposed. Requests for commutation generally are not accepted unless and until a person has begun serving that sentence. Nor are commutation requests generally accepted from persons who are presently challenging their convictions or sentences through appeal or other court proceeding.

Even Bush's commutation didn't follow legal procedures.

But hey, it's ok if you're a Republican. 

Got a card in the mail today announcing that Tom Vilsack is joining the Des Moines office of Dorsey & Whitney LLP. According to the law firm's website, the firm has 18 offices, approximately 650 lawyers, and approximately 850 other support staff.

The card lists 16 other attorneys in the firm's Des Moines office and says Vilsack “will be maintaining a general practice including but not limited to commercial law and litigation and advising clients in the fields of energy conservation, renewable energy and agribusiness development.”

Judging from the envelope, this was a mass mailing. I don't know why I got one–could have been sent to all registered Ds in central Iowa, or just people who have contributed to the Iowa Democratic Party. 

A new poll came out today showing Hillary Clinton and John Edwards way out in front of everyone else in Iowa.

Here are the results from the American Research Group (May's support in parenthesis)…

Clinton 32% (31%)
Edwards 29% (25%)
Obama 13% (11%)
Richardson 5% (8%)
Dodd 2% (2%)
Biden 2% (3%)
Kucinich 1% (4%)
Gravel 1% (1%)
Clark 1% (1%)
Undecided 14% (14%)

At first, I was surprised Hillary was leading with over 30% when other polls show her around 20%. However, if you look at the trends, Hillary has consistently been in the low 30's in this poll, except for May when she had just 23%. In fact Hillary is basically right where she was back in December before her campaign even started (32% to 31%).

Ezra Klein seems to think John Edwards' support is declining, but when you look at the trends in the American Research Group polls, it shows Edwards gaining support. In the past month he increased by 4%. Overall, he has improved from 20% back in December to 29% in June. 9% is the largest increase from any candidate.

If you look at Obama's trends in the American Research Group polls, he peaks at 23% in February right after he announced. He has been on a downward trend since then. I think Obama's support is stronger than the 13% he is polling because the polls is of likely caucus goers. Obama has made a big splash with younger people who would not be included in this poll.

Another interesting thing about this latest poll is looking at the preference by party. Among those who identified themselves as no party, 39% were in favor of Edwards, 31% in favor of Clinton, 11% in favor of Obama, and 3% in favor of Richardson. Edwards' support here only strengthens his campaigns claim that Edwards is in the best position to win independent voters and in red states.

Here's analysis from past ARG polls in May and March .

Originally posted at Century of the Common Iowan. 

I agree 100 percent with a column by David Yepsen. It's about how the “Destiny” tax proposal will lose and deserves to lose.

Here's the link to his piece in the Des Moines Register today. It's hard to know what to excerpt, because he makes a lot of good points. Here's one Chris Woods and I haven't discussed previously on this site:

The supporters' big hope now is that all the groups that will get additional money will vote for it, while those opponents will forget there's an election on July 10. That's what the supporters were trying to do when they scheduled this for a summertime special election – manipulate the outcome.

Which raises another issue for state lawmakers to consider. Why should governments and interest groups be allowed to schedule elections in an effort to affect the results? Got a tax increase or bond issue to get approved? Then schedule the election when people might not be paying attention – like mid-July – so a small handful of voters can push it through.

It amounts to governments playing games with their people. No wonder folks get cynical. Legislators should put a stop to it by adopting an idea Secretary of State Mike Mauro and Gov. Chet Culver have suggested: Governments should be required to hold bond elections and special ballot elections on just a handful of pre-determined dates. For example, once every six months, the state could specify a date on which all bond referendums, ballot initiatives or elections to fill vacancies must be held.

Also in the Sunday Register, you'll find a write-up of this opinion poll, which found that people in the three counties that will be voting oppose the Destiny proposal 2 to 1.

The question is, will these people turn out to vote? The groups that will benefit from the spending are working to get supporters to vote–as a member of the Des Moines Art Center, I got an e-mail recently containing an absentee ballot request form as an attachment.

I think the “Destiny” proposal will go down in flames. It probably wouldn't have passed even if the promoters hadn't sent out misleading direct-mail pieces supporting it (the first one didn't mention the sales-tax hike, and another one included a quote from an elderly woman who later said she never made the comment attributed to her in the mailer). But those mistakes certainly hurt their cause too.

without hitting a presidential candidate during the next week in Iowa.

Noneed4thneed's got a comprehensive list of who'll be where over at Century of the Common Iowan. Click through for info on impending visits by Biden, Dodd, Obama, Clinton, Romney, Huckabee and Tancredo.