Take a minute to click over to Iowa Independent, where T.M. Lindsey has live-blogged the Ron Paul rally in Cedar Rapids. It's a good read.

I've been saying for months that Ron Paul is not going to get major traction among GOP primary voters. It's not that Republicans aren't sick of the war–they are. But the diehard Republicans who think “we've done all we can for those people,” and it's time to bring the troops home, will never admit Bush made a mistake in taking us into Iraq. And that is why Paul will never be able to reach them.

Also, I think true libertarians are scarce in the GOP these days. But maybe I am wrong. He certainly seems to have a buzz surrounding his campaign, and he is the most coherent of the bunch in the televised debates.

Lest any of you think this is proof that Paul is a “liberal” or would be more at home in the Democratic Party, I refer you to this good set of diaries by “phenry” over at Daily Kos:

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul, In His Own Words.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul: The Radical Right's Man in Washington.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul: Dude is Wack.

http://www.dailykos….“>Ron Paul Hates You.

So what do you all think about Ron Paul and his potential in Iowa?

With this post I’m likely to become a fairly unpopular member of the liberal blogosphere, or at least the segment of bloggers like Markos who take pride in bashing Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status.  But as I wrote about on Bleeding Heartland yesterday and today on Political Forecast, the South Carolina GOP’s decision to move up their primary has created huge problems in the national calendar for selecting a nominee for president–and this is the case in both parties.

Carrie Giddins, the IDP’s Communications Director, released this statement earlier today:

“The South Carolina Republicans won’t dictate what Iowa does. The Iowa Democratic Party, our Chairman and our State Central Committee, will make a decision regarding the date of our caucuses with Governor Chet Culver, Senator Tom Harkin and other political leaders that protects Iowa’s interests.

The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for January 14th, 2008 and we are moving forward with plans for that date.

Iowa will hold the first in the nation caucuses.”

Carrie’s pretty direct, and having met with her before, she’s serious when she says that Iowa will hold the nation’s first caucus.  And I’ve got no doubt that she and others inside the Iowa Democratic Party are pissed with Katon Dawson and South Carolina Republicans.  I’m sure folks at the Republican Party of Iowa are just as pissed as well.

To the best of my knowledge, on August 25th the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee will be meeting in Washington, DC, and will be debating whether or not to penalize Florida Democrats because of the decision by the Florida legislature to move their primary from February 5th to January 29th.  The penalty Florida faces is basically a preliminary wrist-slap that says “we won’t seat your delegates at the DNC Convention next August.”  The thing is, whomever has the nomination is going to demand Florida’s delegates be seated–for all practical purposes the nominee trumps the existing DNC chair and will dictate from that point on what will happen.

However, last August the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee hammered out their new rules which would again penalize state parties as mentioned above, but also penalize candidates who campaigned in early states.  From the DNC website:

“There is a new rule that imposes new sanctions on presidential candidates. If a state, any state, violates the rule on timing/the window, presidential candidates will face sanctions if they campaign in that state. Examples of campaigning include: making personal appearances in the state, hiring campaign workers, and buying advertising and so on.

Currently, the only punishment for states that violate the window was on State Parties. This new enforcement provision recognizes that presidential candidates must also bear a responsibility in enforcing the window or face sanctions.”

The window the DNC is talking about is that on or after February 5th, every other state besides Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina could hold their state’s caucus or primary (effectively declaring that Tuesday to be the official “Super Tuesday”).

So what I’m looking for on August 25th in DC is for Iowa’s Democratic representative on the Rules and Bylaws Committee, First Vice Chair Sarah Swisher, to stand up and demand that Florida get their slap on the wrist as well as get a statement from the committee reaffirming its commitment that should any candidate campaign in Florida that they should be penalized.

As the New York Times reported after the new rules were passed:

“The sanctions will be directed at candidates who campaign in any state that refuses to follow a 2008 calendar of primaries and caucuses that was also approved Saturday. Any candidate who campaigns in a state that does not abide by the new calendar will be stripped at the party convention of delegates won in that state.”

Coincidently enough, even if Iowa is forced to move our caucus date before the DNC scheduled date of January 14th, we’re still safe from sanctions because Iowa Democrats don’t actually select delegates to the DNC National Convention until the late spring or summer state convention.

So, essentially, Iowa can’t be punished for responding to Florida and the South Carolina GOP’s moves, but we should ask for strong punishments and statements from the DNC reaffirming Iowa’s position as first in the nation, at least for this cycle.

We’ve had a tried and true method that has worked and framed the start of the presidential campaign season for thirty years.  We must act to protect this tradition–and Iowa Democrats should expect the IDP and its leadership to fight hard for our status.

And as a quick note, if any of my dates or information are factually wrong, please let me know in the comments as soon as possible.

Earlier this morning Senator Chris Dodd unveiled his K-12 Education Policy in a speech to the New Hampshire NEA in Bartlett, NH. The Dodd plan will:

• Provide for universal preschool
• Reform No Child Left Behind
• Ensure that there are quality, experienced teachers in every school
• Put in place world-class, but flexible, academic standards
• Create incentives to extend school learning opportunities by lengthening the school day and spend more time on academics
• Modernize schools and reduce class sizes
• Make sure that every 9th grade student in America has a plan to graduate and is on track for college
• Increase opportunities for virtual learning and online curriculae

Those are the broad strokes, but you can learn more about the details of the Dodd education plan on ChrisDodd.com.

Here's the speech:

UPDATE (6:44 PM Central Time): So here’s the deal.  A December caucus date is seeming a bit less likely.  At least that’s according to the calculations that Chris Bowers over at Open Left has provided to readers.  His calendar shapes out like this:

• Friday, January 4th: Iowa caucuses
• Saturday, January 12th: New Hampshire primary
Saturday, January 19th: Nevada Democratic caucus, South Carolina Republican primary
• Tuesday, January 29th: Florida primary, South Carolina Democratic primary
• Tuesday, February 5th: Super Tuesday

His reasoning, again, is here and worth a read.

And one more thing.  Gov. Culver talked with Kay Henderson and others today emphasizing his support for Iowa as first-in-the-nation state.  And he says that Iowa will be first, no matter what.

– – – – – – – – – –

Oh holy hell.  I really wish I could confirm with any ease the exact date of the Iowa Caucuses but it seems likely not to count on January 14th, 2008, anymore.

First, I’ll let you read what my friend John Deeth reported: That the South Carolina GOP Chair will announce in New Hampshire that he’s moving his primary date earlier than their scheduled February 2nd, 2008, primary.

Now, according to Marc Ambinder and others, it looks like the South Carolina GOP will announce in NH that they’re moving their primary to January 19th, a full three days before the NH primary.  By announcing the move in NH, it seems likely that the NH Secretary of State will move his state’s primary up to Monday, January 7th, or Tuesday, January 9th.  That would almost guarantee an Iowa Caucus date in December of 2007, unless both the IDP and the RPI decide to hold the Iowa Caucuses on Friday, January 4th.  That doesn’t seem likely as its right after the new year.

Other complications still exist.  On August 25th, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet to decide whether or not to sanction Florida Democrats because their state’s primary is now on January 29th (thanks to a Republican Florida legislature and governor).  Florida Democrats are seeking an exemption, but it is likely that Iowa Democrats will fight hard for sanctions to Florida’s delegation to the Democratic National Convention next summer in Denver.  The outcome of the Rules and Bylaws meeting is still quite up in the air.

Also, South Carolina Democrats are still planning their primary for January 29th, which means they’ll still actually be on schedule.

Michigan is still considering moving its primary to January 29th as well, but Gov. Jennifer Granholm is facing pressure not to sign a bill that would move the primary earlier (but also faces pressure from in-state Democrats like Sen. Carl Levin to move the date earlier–as a sidenote, Levin is crybaby who is just pissed that Nevada and South Carolina were the states that the DNC picked to insert into the IA-NH domination).

Summary: If you’re planning to caucus, keep the months of December and January open.

And if you want to keep track of the best news on the primary/caucus schedule, try Ballot Access News.

The folks over at IowaPolitics.com have launched another contest to reach out to online readers and bloggers with their Ames Straw Poll Contest.

Mike Schramm, the news editor at IowaPolitics.com, says “Whoever guesses closest to the actual finishing order wins a free year of our subscription service.”  To be honest, I’m not a subscriber to their service but I know some folks who are subscribers and appreciate the work they do.

Anyway, entries need to be submitted by Friday afternoon (because Saturday is the actual straw poll).  So go fill out the form and take a chance!

And yes, I realize that we’re all mostly Democrats and progressives here but this is at least a good way to have some fun and test your Republican political prowess.

The Progressive States Network ranked each state on the progressive policy gains they made in the past year.  Iowa received the top ranking as a Star state…

With Democratic leadership of both legislative chambers and the governorship for the first time in forty years, the result in Iowa was a series of landmark legislative achievements, with a promise of even greater achievement in 2008: 

·  One of the signature bills of the session was the creation of the Iowa Power Fund, a $100 million investment in the state's renewable energy industry.

 

·  Iowa approved Election Day Registration, a key reform to improve voter turnout in future elections.

 

·  Along with raising the state minimum wage in line with likely federal increases, the legislature approved an increase in the state’s Earned Income Tax Credit to 7% and made the credit refundable.

 

·  Iowa became the 18th state to ban discrimination based on sexual orientation and the 11th state to ban discrimination based on gender identity.

 

·  Teacher salaries will advance to the national average, a $250 million teacher pay increase.

 

·  The legislature voted to end paperless electronic voting and move the state towards voter-marked paper ballots.

 

·  The Senate approved a resolution opposing the President's escalation in Iraq.

 

On health care, the state raised the cigarette tax by $1 per pack, allowed small businesses to band together in purchasing pools, and encouraged embryonic stem cell research by repealing a 2002 law that prohibited human cloning.  More comprehensive health care reforms were turned over to a committee to recommend changes for the 2008 legislature.

 

On the downside, the legislature failed to enact pro-union reforms of Iowa's “right to work for less” law and failed to enact a prevailing wage law to raise wages on public construction projects to match the wages paid in the private sector.

My name is Carissa Picard.  Although I am an attorney, I have been staying at home with my two sons, ages 3 and 6, for the past five years.  My husband is a warrant officer in the United States Army.  He just finished a year-long tour in Central America and is going to Iraq in early 2008.  As a result, we have less than a year together before he has to redeploy.  Nonetheless, in June, I drove from Fort Hood, Texas, to Des Moines, Iowa, to help promote Senator Joe Biden's candidacy (at my own expense and with my husband's full support).  This is my blog about my experience with the campaign and the people of Iowa.

Just heard about this from the Richardson campaign:

Governor Bill Richardson will announce his, new national healthcare plan in a speech at the Iowa Professional Firefighters-Local 15 Hall in Council Bluffs, Iowa tomorrow [Tuesday] at 1:30 PM.

WHEN: 1:30 PM (Central Time)
WHAT: Speech on Universal Healthcare Plan
WHERE: Iowa Professional Firefighters-Local 15, 1827 South 8th St, Council Bluffs, IA

I look forward to hearing more details about Richardson's health care plan and how he would pay for it, in light of his support for a balanced budget constitutional amendment and his promises not to raise taxes. 

Words cannot describe my anger as I read this front-page article from Sunday's Des Moines Register, about a family who are suing the Waukee school district over excessive time-outs the staff forced on their daughter, who has autism.

Waukee is the fastest-growing city in Iowa. I knew that the school district had some growing pains, but I had no idea its leadership was so poor as to allow this kind of conduct, let alone defend it.

Join me after the jump if you have the stomach to read about sickening treatment of special-needs kids in a public school.

Who had the bright idea of scheduling a televised debate at 8 am on a Sunday?

I didn't even remember to set the VCR. Maybe they'll broadcast it again tonight.

Anyone watch the GOP crowd today? What did you think? 

The liberal blogosphere has been disappointed that the U.S. Senate (including 16 Democrats) capitulated to President Bush on warrantless wiretapping this week.

However, we had some great news out of the U.S. House on Saturday. The chamber passed an energy bill that would take away $16 billion in tax breaks for oil and put more resources toward renewable energy.

Even better, I heard from Rich Dana (former president of I-Renew) on the I-Renew e-mail list that the House approved an amendment calling for a 15 percent Renewable Electricity Standard. That would require the U.S. to have 15 percent of electricity generated from renewable sources by 2020.

The vote on the RES amendment was 220-190.

Rich has the details on that crucial vote:

Democratic
Ayes188
Noes38
NV9
Republican
Ayes32
Noes152
  NV19

TOTALS
Ayes220
Noes190
No Vote28

Iowa – Loebsack, Braley, Boswell Aye  King, Latham No

Fortunately, the Democrats in the Iowa delegation all voted yes. (I was worried about Boswell and sent an e-mail to his office on Thursday about this issue.)

But it's worth noting that 38 Democrats voted against the RES, which would not have passed without the 32 Republicans who voted for it.

We've got a Democratic majority in the House, but clearly we've still got a lot of work to do if we want a reliable progressive majority. 

The next big battle will be in the conference committee that will reconcile the House and Senate versions of the energy bill. But it looks like we've got a decent chance at keeping the RES provision in there, since it was included in the Senate version. 

PS: At Daily Kos yesterday, user apsmith posted a helpful analysis and comparison of the energy plans proposed by Edwards, Obama, Clinton and Richardson.

Click the link and read through the chart–it will be worth your time, and you'll see why Daily Kos readers who took the poll attached to this diary vastly preferred the Edwards and Richardson plans to the Obama and Clinton plans.

My only criticism is that apsmith didn't include Dodd in his analysis. Dodd's got a good energy policy as well. 

UPDATE: Lee Honeycutt posted this helpful information on the I-Renew e-mail list:

Anyone wanting to read the RES bill can find it online at:

http://thomas. loc.gov/cgi- bin/query/ z?c110:H. R.3221:

You can also download a PDF version of the 786-page bill:

http://frwebgate. access.gpo. gov/cgi-bin/ getdoc.cgi? dbname=110_ cong_bills& docid=f:h3221ih. txt.pdf

Someone I know who spends a lot of time on blogs professionally told me that political blogs make up only about 5 percent of the blogosphere.  I had no idea–until recently I never read any non-political blogs.

In the past few months I've started reading more blogs related to mothering, natural parenting and green or simple living. Most of these blogs are non-political, although some have the occasional pro-Republican post. Many of them have a Christian orientation as well.

I've learned a lot from reading these blogs. One surprising lesson I've learned is that people take offense much more easily on parenting blogs than at places like Daily Kos and MyDD. I have seen bloggers get quite offended by “total strangers” posting “rude” comments on their blogs that really didn't seem so rude to me.

They should see what some of the Clintonistas say about me at MyDD!

Some of the non-political bloggers I read take a much more active role in restricting the comments on their blogs.

When political bloggers do this (like iPol), it's to prevent spam from being posted, not a way to screen out opposing views. Cyclone Conservatives and The Real Sporer don't censor my comments.

I've had some of my comments screened out by non-political bloggers for reasons I don't understand. I make an effort to be respectful in my disagreement and truly don't think my censored comments were offensive. Half the time I was just trying to make things interesting on a thread containing 30-plus comments along the lines of “Excellent post! Thanks so much for putting that in perspective!” 

Anyway, does anyone else out there read non-political blogs on sports or hobbies or whatever? If so, have you noticed less of a tolerance for spirited disagreement?

Welcome once again to the 50-State Blog Roundup, brought to you this week from LoadedOrygun‘s TJ, one of the state blog rookies. Treat him kindly…

See you next week!

I attended the Polk County Democrats' women's event tonight, featuring Michelle Obama. Unfortunately, I had to leave before she finished speaking so that my toddler would not disrupt the proceedings.

But wow, she did a great job. I don't have a transcript or notes. The gist of her speech was first, to talk about the tough balancing act women have, and put this in the context of problems we need to solve in this country. Then, she talked about how these issues affecting women motivated her and Barack Obama to pursue a political career instead of taking an easier path (like teaching).

She said she knew what we were all thinking–why should we support Obama when there is a talented woman candidate in the race? (Well, I wasn't thinking that, but there were plenty of Hillary supporters in the crowd.) She hit repeatedly on the “change” theme; I can't remember the exact words, but the main point was that we need to totally change the direction in Washington, not just replace this administration.

I think this is good rhetoric for Obama to use against Hillary; electing her would bring just superficial change–we need to turn the page.

I noticed that Edwards has started to hit on this theme as well. Today he condemned the merger of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp and the Wall Street Journal. He also challenged Democratic presidential candidates not to take money from News Corp execs and to refund any contribution they've already received from them. 

Obviously, this refers to Hillary, the Democrat Rupert Murdoch's minions desperately want us to nominate. She's taken in more than $20,000 from News Corp execs.

Links are here:

http://www.mydd.com/…

http://www.johnedwards.com/news/press-releases/20070802-media-consolidation

The sad truth is that even if Hillary were electable, another Clinton administration would give too much influence to the Washington and corporate insiders who have too much influence today.

Democratic voters are hungry for change, and Hillary will not deliver the bold change we need. We'll be hearing much more on this theme from Obama and Edwards in the coming months.

Not only is it good political rhetoric, it has the advantage of being true. 

To my knowledge, this is the first Iowa caucus poll by Washington Post/ABC. They found:

Obama 27 percent

Clinton 26

Edwards 26

Richardson 11

Biden 2

Kucinich 2

Dodd 1

The link is here:

http://www.washingto…

Not surprisingly, Obama does best among younger voters, but most caucus-goers are likely to be older:

Obama's hope for winning in Iowa appears to depend heavily on his ability to turn younger voters out on caucus night. Iowa's caucus process demands far more of voters than do presidential primaries. Participants must spend several hours at a caucus, and there are no secret ballots. All voting is done in public.

Among Iowa voters younger than 45, Obama has the advantage — 39 percent, compared with 24 percent for Clinton and 22 percent for Edwards. Among those age 45 and older, Clinton and Edwards were tied at 28 percent, with Obama trailing at 18 percent. Four years ago, these older-than-45 voters made up two-thirds of all caucus participants.

In this poll, 31 percent of likely caucus-goers said the upcoming caucuses will be their first. Half of those younger than 45 said this would be their first time out. Converting interest into commitment among younger voters is one big challenge facing Obama's team.

If Obama can mobilize tens of thousands of new voters to come out and caucus, more power to him. I'd love to see that. My hunch is that many precincts just don't have a lot of Democrats under age 45, though.

Recent Iowa polls have been all over the map, which confirms that it's tough to poll the caucuses. My advice to everyone is ignore the polls and work your heart out to GOTV for your favorite candidate.

Over at Iowa Independent Dien Judge reports that “We haven't seen the end of the Clinton-Obama diplomacy feud.”

The chairman of the Democratic Party in Monroe County (southeast Iowa) got a phone call from PSA Interviewing, which conducted a message-testing poll for Clinton in Iowa earlier this year.

Most of the poll questions were about Hillary, and they concerned both policy matters and electability. The survey specifically asked about the CNN/You Tube debate question about whether the president should meet with foreign dictators, and under what conditions.

There's been a lot of debate in the blogosphere over who was helped by this dispute. If Clinton tries to keep this story alive in her speeches and/or campaign ads, it's a safe bet that her internal Iowa polling showed it was a winner for her. If she doesn't bring it up much in the future, we can assume that the polling showed most Iowans agreed with Obama.

ARG, which has shown Clinton leading in Iowa all year, released a new poll today with similar findings. Details and a spirited discussion of this poll can be found over at MyDD. Here are the key findings:

Clinton 30 (down from 32 in last ARG poll)

Edwards 21 (down from 29 in last ARG poll)

Obama 15 (up from 13 in last ARG poll)

Richardson 13 (up from 5 in last ARG poll)

These numbers just don't ring true to me. I don't believe Clinton leads Edwards in Iowa, and certainly not by that kind of a margin. All year ARG has had Clinton around 30 percent in Iowa, and I can't remember any other pollster finding her with support that high.

ARG's new numbers for Republicans in Iowa are also at odds with recent polling by other firms. ARG finds:

Giuliani 22

Romney 21

McCain 17

Undecided 15

Fred Thompson 13

Gingrich 4

all others 2 percent or less 

What do other people think about this poll?

I guess when other firms release their results we'll find out which is the outlier: ARG or the latest KCCI Iowa poll conducted by Research 2000.

On Iowa’s airwaves you’ll start seeing a new TV ad titled “Take It Back” touting reform efforts his campaign has taken to get rid of the influence of Washington lobbyists and PACs by not accepting donations from them to his campaign as well as highlight his work in the Senate on ethics reform efforts.  For some reason, I can’t find a version of the ad that I can embed here on Bleeding Heartland, but you can view the ad by clicking here.

It is a good ad that follows on the same theme/guidelines established in his first two biographical ads that went up on the air in Iowa, as in they help to keep telling the “Barack Obama story.”

What interests me about this ad is the highlighting of ethics and campaign finance issues as the primary focus in what is Obama’s first true issue ad in Iowa.  Will the issues really resonate with Iowans at this point?  I’m not sure.

Ethics and government reform were major Democratic campaign platforms in 2006 and were even considered to be one of the deciding issues in 2006 (right behind the catch-all issue of Iraq).  But now with House passing really comprehensive lobbying reform legislation (that will likely be passed in the Senate as is and sent to the President’s desk) it seems like Democrats are already taking big efforts to fully push through reform.

Maybe I’m just naive or way to focused on other issues like Iraq but to me the clean campaign Obama is running just makes logical sense and should be what all the campaigns are doing, and then other issues should become the real focus.

Either way, it is just a TV ad, and a good one.

I was thinking that it would be helpful to have a box somewhere listing all of the Iowa politicians who have endorsed presidential candidates this year. I know Chris Woods has been keeping track of those, but I don't have a comprehensive list. Even if I did, I am not able to redesign the page.

What do people think? Is this a feature you'd like to see at Bleeding Heartland? Might be useful as a reference.

Speaking of which, has Patty Judge endorsed Edwards? Someone told me yesterday that she has, but I don't remember reading about it, and I couldn't find a link on the Des Moines Register website. 

Howard Dean was at the top of the polls in Iowa leading up to the 2004 Iowa Caucuses. Richard Gephardt was polling well, but trending down. Gephardt had placed all his bets on Iowa and had to find a way to win. So Gephardt started running ads going after Dean. Dean countered back with ads attacking Gephardt.

While Gephardt's and Dean's ads turned Iowans off from their campaigns, John Kerry and John Edwards kept focusing on the issues and organizing. The night of the caucuses saw Kerry and Edwards come out on top with Dean and Gephardt coming in 3rd and 4th. Iowa was witness of a murder-suicide of the Dean and Gephardt campaigns.

After this week's spat between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, I can see this scenario happening again. It is important for Clinton and Obama to finish ahead of the other one in Iowa. As the Iowa caucuses approach, whoever is behind is likely to air ads attacking the other. There is a good chance Clinton and Obama will do exactly what Dean and Gephardt did and we will see yet another murder-suicide scenario.

So with Obama and Clinton mainly focusing on beating each other and seemingly willing to do whatever it takes to do so, there is an opening for other candidates to have big victories in Iowa.

Originally posted at Century of the Common Iowan. 

**Update**
It was brought to my attention that David Yepsen had a post yesterday that had basically the same connection to the Dean-Gephardt attack ads back in 2004.  I had not read his post nor had heard about before posting mine.  I got the idea from reading Joe Trippi's book, The Revolution Will Not be Televised about the Dean campaign last week.