Democratic State Senator Janet Petersen told reporters today that she is “thinking about” running for governor next year. Petersen was an early endorser of State Representative Tyler Olson, who just dropped out of the governor’s race.

Who would advise Petersen to take this course? All polls taken this year, including two surveys released this week, indicate that Governor Terry Branstad will be extremely difficult to beat in 2014. Meanwhile, an open Congressional seat in central Iowa is almost a once in a lifetime opportunity. IA-03 is very winnable for a Democrat, and without meaning any disrespect to Staci Appel, Petersen has more legislative experience and accomplishments. She would be a stronger Congressional candidate.

Either way, Petersen doesn’t need to give up her Senate seat to run for higher office. After serving six terms in the Iowa House, she was just elected to represent Iowa Senate district 18 in 2012. She won’t be up for re-election until 2016.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: So much for that idea. Senator Petersen responded to my request for comment: “It would be an honor to serve Iowans in Congress, but my family and I don’t want to move to DC.” I understand the decision; she has three young children.

Like the latest Des Moines Register poll, Quinnipiac’s new Iowa poll shows Governor Terry Branstad in a commanding position heading into next year’s election.  

State Representative Tyler Olson announced today that he is ending his campaign for governor.

While focused on supporting my children through the transition in my personal life it is clear they need my full attention. It is time to end my campaign for Governor.

I will continue to focus on my family, finish my term as state representative, rejoin Paulson Electric and look for opportunities to serve my community as time allows.

Shortly after Thanksgiving, Olson revealed that he and his wife are divorcing. At that time, he signaled that he planned to resume campaigning for governor in the new year. I think ending his candidacy is the right decision, and I assume he heard similar feedback from many of his supporters. Olson is young and will have opportunities to run for public office again.  

To my knowledge, only one candidate is already running to succeed Olson in Iowa House district 65: Democratic activist Liz Bennett.

UPDATE: Here’s the list of state legislators who had endorsed Olson. Here’s the list of those who had already endorsed State Senator Jack Hatch.

The latest poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Terry Branstad in a commanding position going into his undeclared but very likely sixth campaign for Iowa governor.

Among 650 Iowa adults surveyed between December 8 and 11, 58 percent of respondents approved of Branstad’s job performance, while just 33 percent disapproved. The governor’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 58 percent/34 percent. Furthermore, 55 percent of respondents feel Iowa is generally moving in the right direction, while just 33 percent think the state is on the wrong track. The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 3.8 percent, and although “Iowa adults” may not be perfectly representative of the 2014 voter universe, any incumbent governor with these numbers would be heavily favored to win another term.

The Democrats who have announced plans to run against Branstad are mostly unknown to Iowans. According to the Register’s poll, 73 percent of respondents didn’t know enough to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion about State Senator Jack Hatch, 79 percent were not sure about State Representative Tyler Olson, 76 percent were not sure about former State Representative Bob Krause, and 87 percent were not sure about first-time candidate Paul Dahl, who announced his campaign in October. In a ballot test, Branstad led Hatch by 52 percent to 29 percent and led Olson by 51 percent to 28 percent. Hatch announced yesterday that he is putting $200,000 of his own money into his gubernatorial campaign. It will take a lot more money than that to raise his name recognition significantly statewide. Even then, something dramatic probably would need to happen to dent Branstad’s approval enough to make him vulnerable. The governor may not be responsible for a decrease in Iowa unemployment that has closely tracked the national jobless rate, but assuming the economy continues to improve slowly, many voters may give the incumbent credit.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.  

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has granted a waiver for Iowa’s alternative to the Medicaid expansion foreseen under the 2010 health care reform law. Governor Terry Branstad signed the Iowa Health and Wellness Plan compromise into law in June, and state officials submitted a formal request for a waiver in August. Iowa elected officials from both parties as well as many non-profit organizations with a stake in the outcome had urged Health and Human Services to approve the plan.

However, Governor Terry Branstad may appeal today’s decision, because federal officials rejected a provision he insisted on during negotiations with Democrats in the Iowa legislature.

Supporters of Ron Paul dominated the delegate slates at the 2012 Iowa Republican county conventions, district conventions, and the state convention.

Now Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign is recruiting loyalists to become convention delegates next year, in an apparent effort to prevent any Republican faction from mounting a serious challenge to Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds.

Last month Iowa politicians from both parties expressed outrage after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced a proposal to alter the Renewable Fuel Standard on how much ethanol must be blended into gasoline. At an EPA hearing in Washington today, Representative Bruce Braley (a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee) and Governor Terry Branstad both testified against reducing the Renewable Fuel Standard. Several Iowa farmers and representatives of corn and soybeans growers also spoke and met with EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy afterwards.

After the jump I’ve posted a statement from Braley’s office containing highlights from his remarks and a link to the video. Branstad warned that reducing the RFS could lead to another farm crisis like the one Iowa experienced during the 1980s. I will add more details from his testimony if they become available. I expect both Braley and Branstad to feature their advocacy for ethanol and biodiesel in their campaigns for the U.S. Senate and governor next year.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that last month, Branstad’s re-election campaign created a “Protect the Renewable Fuel Standard” website. I’ve added more details on that effort below. Like the pro-Olympic wrestling site the campaign launched earlier this year, ProtectTheRFS.com presents as a petition supporting a popular cause in Iowa, doubling as a way to build the Branstad campaign’s contact list.

The progressive 501(c)4 group Americans United for Change announced today that it will run a commercial on Des Moines-based television stations to support the Renewable Fuels Standard. Scroll to the end of this post for the video and transcript. The ad encourages viewers to send their comments to the EPA by visiting a website called SavetheRFS.com (a list-building effort like the one Branstad’s campaign created). The veterans political action committee VoteVets.org, which is part of the Americans United for Change coalition, operates SavetheRFS.com.

SECOND UPDATE: Added more comments from Branstad below.

State Representative Tyler Olson just announced that because he and Sarah Olson are separating after seven years of marriage, he is “scaling back campaign events for the remainder of the year to focus on my family and helping them through this transition.” He said he and his wife took this step “only after significant discussion and professional support to deal with the issues facing our marriage,” and that he is “deeply committed” to continuing the race for governor after the holiday season.

Many prominent Iowa Democrats, including more than two dozen state legislators, have endorsed Olson for governor, as did the state’s largest labor union. I will update this post as needed with political reaction.

UPDATE: Added Olson’s e-mail about the situation after the jump.

Olson has until March 14, 2014 to decide whether to stay in the race. Democrat Liz Bennett is already running in Iowa House district 65, which Olson is vacating.

State Senator Jack Hatch, another Democratic candidate for governor, said in a statement, “This is a private matter and we should all respect the family’s privacy. These matters are always very hard and unpleasant for everyone involved. I wish Rep. Olson, Sarah, and their family the best as they work through this difficult time. I will not have any further comment.”

State Senators Janet Petersen and Jeff Danielson, who both endorsed Olson earlier this year, told the Des Moines Register that they still support his gubernatorial campaign.

SECOND UPDATE: No surprise, Governor Terry Branstad has no comment about Olson’s family situation.

THIRD UPDATE: In another signal Olson is serious about staying in the governor’s race, on December 4 his campaign urged supporters to help collect signatures for his ballot petitions.  

Roughly 800 people came to Altoona on Saturday night to celebrate Governor Terry Branstad’s birthday and raise money for his re-election campaign. The featured speaker was House Budget Committee Chair and 2012 Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan. Listening to his remarks at Radio Iowa’s website, I didn’t hear a serious contender for the presidency in 2016.

Three big things were missing from Ryan’s speech.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. Here are a few links to get a conversation started.

A Polk County district court ruling related to one of Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz’s pet projects called attention to the fact that Schultz was in Switzerland for the American Swiss Foundation’s 24th annual Young Leaders Conference, a weeklong event. Whether the secretary of state should attend a foreign junket like this at any time is debatable. But it’s ridiculous for him to have planned to be out of town when Iowa’s 99 county auditors were gathering in Des Moines to discuss election-related issues. The Iowa Democratic Party and the only declared Democratic candidate for secretary of state blasted Schultz. I’ve posted their comments below, along with the official defense from the Iowa Secretary of State’s spokesman.

Speaking of Schultz’s pet projects, here’s some important news from last month: the federal judge who wrote a key ruling upholding Indiana’s voter ID law now believes he got that case wrong.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced on Friday that it is proposing to alter the Renewable Fuel Standard on how much ethanol must be blended into gasoline. The announcement upset Iowa elected officials from both parties. After the jump I’ve posted statements from Governor Terry Branstad, Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds, and all of the Iowans in Congress except for Representative Tom Latham (R, IA-03), who has not commented on this issue to my knowledge.

The Associated Press reported this week on how the push to produce corn-based ethanol has damaged the environment in Iowa and elsewhere.

One last outrage: Will Potter reported for Mother Jones about a case that “could make it harder for journalists and academics to keep tabs on government agencies.” The FBI is going to court to prevent its “most prolific” Freedom of Information Act requester from accessing hundreds of thousands of pages of documents.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner was an entertaining affair. I’ve posted some highlights after the jump. The “news” of the evening was Senator Chuck Schumer of New York endorsing Hillary Clinton for president, but for my money that wasn’t the most interesting part of his speech.

Yesterday was a big news day for two Democratic candidates seeking to unseat Governor Terry Branstad. Iowa’s largest labor union endorsed State Representative Tyler Olson, while State Senator Jack Hatch released a major tax reform proposal. Details are after the jump.

UPDATE: Added excerpts from Danny Homan’s November 2 guest editorial for the Des Moines Register below.  

State Senator Jack Hatch’s campaign released a list of prominent Iowa endorsers today, including eight-term U.S. Representative Leonard Boswell, eight Iowa Senate Democrats (Dennis Black, Joe Bolkcom, Tom Courtney, Dick Dearden, Matt McCoy, Steve Sodders, Joe Seng, and Rich Taylor), and six Iowa House Democrats (Ako Abdul-Samad, Marti Anderson, John Forbes, Ruth Ann Gaines, Bruce Hunger, and Frank Wood). Several of those lawmakers stood with Hatch during his statewide tour last month to announce his candidacy. Others had not taken a public stand in the governor’s race before today, to my knowledge.

I’ve posted the Hatch campaign’s press release after the jump. Boswell and several of the endorsers cited Hatch’s experience and record of legislative accomplishments, themes I expect to hear repeatedly during the next eight months. Hatch’s main Democratic primary competition, State Representative Tyler Olson, has support from more than two dozen state lawmakers but doesn’t have nearly as much legislative experience. Nor is he known for doing the heavy lifting on many bills that have become law.

This comment from Senator Tom Courtney jumped out at me from today’s press release: “Anyone can floor manage a bill passed out of another chamber or sign on as a co-sponsor to an existing bill, but Jack has shown real leadership throughout his time in public service – creating new ideas, finding allies, drafting legislation, and fighting to see it succeed in the legislative process.” I read that as a subtle swipe at Olson, because his major legislative accomplishment was floor-managing the public smoking ban in 2008–a cause initially pushed by other legislators, including Janet Petersen and Staci Appel. Highlighting Hatch’s “new ideas” is also an implicit rebuttal to Olson’s promise to provide “fresh leadership” for the next 30 years.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Added details below on the Hatch campaign’s steering committee.

Governor Terry Branstad announced yesterday that he had accepted the resignation of David Worley as commandant of the Iowa Veterans Home in Marshalltown. After the jump I’ve posted the official press release, including Worley’s resignation letter. His successor will be retired Brig. Gen. and former State Representative Jodi Tymeson, whom Branstad named chief operating officer at the Iowa Veterans Home in May. At that time, the governor’s staff dismissed claims that Worley (a holdover from Chet Culver’s administration) had created a hostile work environment at the home. I never understood why Branstad would create an entirely new management position for Tymeson if Worley truly had “the governor’s full faith and confidence.”

I also enclose below comments from Iowa Senate Veterans Affairs Committee Chair Daryl Beall and State Senator Steve Sodders, who represents the Marshalltown area. Beall presided over a lengthy Senate hearing on alleged problems at the Iowa Veterans Home in May, after which Sodders called for a full investigation of Worley’s conduct.

Veterans’ advocate Bob Krause, who is exploring a run for governor, discussed Worley’s resignation and ways to improve conditions for Iowa Veterans Home staff and residents in an open letter, which I’ve posted below.

I’ll say this for Branstad: he knows how to bury a story. On a slow news day, Worley’s resignation might have generated a lot of Iowa media coverage and questions about why the governor waited so long to replace him. Instead, this news will be overshadowed by coverage of the federal government shutdown and the new health insurance exchanges.

Echoing results from Quinnipiac’s Iowa poll in July, the latest statewide survey by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register shows that Iowans generally approve of Governor Terry Branstad’s work but feel he “has been in office long enough.”

Imagine that a speeding incident involving the governor’s vehicle snowballed into a scandal and a wrongful-termination lawsuit from a 25-year law enforcement veteran. If you were the governor, wouldn’t you make sure your driver didn’t exceed the speed limit again?

In July, Governor Terry Branstad acknowledged the need “to obey the speed limit laws.” Yet news broke yesterday that his unmarked SUV was caught speeding again in late August. Franklin County Chief Deputy Linn Larson pulled the vehicle over and gave a warning to the state trooper who was driving. A spokesperson for the Iowa Department of Public Safety won’t say how fast the governor’s vehicle was going or how the driver was disciplined later. Branstad’s spokesman Tim Albrecht depicted the governor as an innocent bystander:

“The governor has made clear that his security detail is to obey all traffic laws, and he does not tolerate any exceptions. Upon learning of the incident, the Department of Public Safety launched an immediate investigation and they took disciplinary action against the trooper involved in the incident.”

Are we supposed to believe that the governor’s driver independently decided to speed, with no pressure from Branstad’s staff to get the governor and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds to a noon town-hall meeting on time? I’m with State Senator Jeff Danielson:

“You’ve got to be kidding me,” Sen. Jeff Danielson, D-Cedar Falls, said after hearing about the latest traffic stop. “It’s the governor’s responsibility to change the culture and it begins with himself and not deferring it to the troopers.”

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

Iowa’s constitution allows the governor to line-item veto provisions in appropriations bills, and Governor Terry Branstad has used that power to overrule legislative decisions on many spending proposals, large and small. Among this year’s line-item vetoes, perhaps the most controversial was Branstad’s surprising decision to ax $13 million for mental health services. That line item was intended to cushion the blow for counties as Iowa reorganizes its mental health care delivery system. (In the past, available care depended greatly on a patient’s county of residence.) Despite broad bipartisan support for this appropriation and a large state budget surplus, Branstad decided that counties didn’t need extra help with mental health services.

This week four Democratic state senators and one Republican asked Branstad to help fix the mess he created, which has already led to some service cuts.

State Senator Jack Hatch made his candidacy for governor official in Des Moines this morning, en route to campaign stops in five other Iowa cities. A few days ago, State Representative Tyler Olson sought to build momentum by revealing a long list of state lawmakers who support his gubernatorial campaign.

After the jump I’ve posted Hatch’s announcement, the full list of Iowa House and Senate Democrats backing Olson, and a few thoughts on the big question each candidate will have to answer before next June’s primary.

Iowa House Republicans failed in 2011 and again last summer to curtail Medicaid coverage of abortions in this state. A compromise passed near the end of this year’s legislative session gave the governor power to determine whether the state should reimburse abortion providers for certain Medicaid cases. However, administrators at the University of Iowa Hospitals in Iowa City have apparently let Governor Terry Branstad off the hook: the hospital no longer bills Medicaid for the handful of abortions that might be eligible for coverage.

Follow me after the jump for background and more details on the current policy.

Chris Essig of the Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier observed on Sunday, “You might live in Iowa if… Wrestling being retained as an Olympic sport is the lead sports story over the NFL kicking off its season.” True that. You also might live in Iowa if politicians in both parties remind you how hard they worked to get wrestling back into the Olympics. Shortly after the International Olympic Committee’s vote on Sunday to reinstate one of Iowans’ most beloved sports for the 2020 summer Olympics and beyond, celebratory press releases from Representatives Dave Loebsack (D, IA-02) and Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) appeared in my in-box. I’ve posted those after the jump, along with comments Governor Terry Branstad made today at a telephone press conference.

Although I’m not a wrestling fan, I was very happy to hear the IOC corrected their idiotic mistake. You don’t have to follow the sport closely to comprehend that wrestling belongs in the Olympics. Few sports have as much history or connection to the Olympic tradition.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I recommend this ESPN feature on Iowa wrestling legend Dan Gable.

P.S.-The Branstad campaign’s “Let’s Keep Wrestling” website was the best list-building exercise I’ve ever seen in Iowa politics. The governor claims that more than 25,000 people supported their efforts.

Elected officials in both parties welcomed Governor Terry Branstad’s decision this week to bring back Larry Noble as Iowa Department of Public Safety commissioner, but some important questions about Brian London’s disastrous tenure have yet to be answered.

Governor Terry Branstad’s office announced today that the governor’s legal counsel Brenna Findley will serve as interim chief of staff until outgoing chief of staff Jeff Boeyink’s replacement is found. Having run Representative Steve King’s office in Washington for years, Findley is better-qualified for the chief of staff position than she is for her current job. She worked as an attorney only briefly after finishing law school and did not maintain an active license to practice in Iowa during her years on King’s staff. Branstad had to hire outside counsel to represent him in a high-profile lawsuit (at significant taxpayer expense), because Findley is a co-defendant in that case, accused of trying to strong-arm Iowa Workers’ Compensation Commissioner Chris Godfrey in 2011.

Branstad tapped Findley to be his legal counsel shortly after she lost the 2010 election for Iowa attorney general. He had promoted her candidacy heavily and even appeared in one of her campaign commercials, which he did not do for other GOP statewide candidates.

According to the press release I’ve posted after the jump, Branstad will name a permanent replacement for Boeyink sometime after September 18, when the governor is scheduled to return to Iowa from a trade mission to India and Japan.  

State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald confirmed today that he has decided against running for governor next year.

“Democrats have three good candidates out there and I look to running on the ticket with any one of them,”  Fitzgerald told Radio Iowa.

He says there wasn’t any one particular thing that made him decide not to run for governor. “I think it was a combination of things and it boiled down to I can serve the State of Iowa better as state treasurer,” he says.

Fitzgerald is the country’s longest-serving state treasurer and will be heavily favored for re-election in 2014. He defeated Republican challenger Dave Jamison by approximately 53 percent to 47 percent despite the massive GOP landslide of 2010.

State Representative Tyler Olson and former State Representative Bob Krause are already running for governor, and State Senator Jack Hatch plans to kick off his gubernatorial campaign with events in several cities on September 17.

Governor Terry Branstad will be shopping for a new chief of staff for the first time since the 1990s. Jeff Boeyink announced today that he is stepping down for an unspecified private sector job, effective September 6. After many years with the conservative advocacy group Iowans for Tax Relief, Boeyink briefly served as executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa before leaving to manage Branstad’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign. After the 2010 election, Boeyink co-chaired the governor’s transition team, and he has served as chief of staff ever since.

I’ve posted the press release from the governor’s office after the jump. Note the careful mention of Branstad’s “potential” re-election bid, and the conspicuous effort to mention Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds’ name and title as often as possible. The governor’s re-election campaign has engaged in similar branding of the Branstad-Reynolds “team,” fueling rumors in some circles that Reynolds will become the last-minute gubernatorial candidate next spring.

The Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs listed some possible successors to Boeyink. The governor’s legal counsel Brenna Findley used to serve as Representative Steve King’s chief of staff before she ran for Iowa attorney general in 2010. David Roederer has long been in Branstad’s inner circle and now heads the Iowa Department of Management. Former Iowa GOP staffer Chad Olsen is currently chief of staff for Secretary of State Matt Schultz. Michael Bousselot has been advising Branstad on health care and other issues. Sara Craig was state director of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in Iowa before the 2012 caucuses. Matt Hinch has held many political jobs and is now senior vice president of government relations and public policy for the Greater Des Moines Partnership. I can’t imagine that Doug Gross would want to go back to the job he held nearly 30 years ago. Former Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn is busy with his new consulting and lobbying firm.

Democrats on the south side of Des Moines may not have a competitive race to replace Kevin McCarthy in House district 33, but they’ll still be at the center of an exciting primary in Iowa Senate district 17. Former State Senator Tony Bisignano is already running in the district State Senator Jack Hatch currently holds, and former State Representative Ned Chiodo is leaning toward running. Assistant Iowa Attorney General Nathan Blake confirmed by telephone this week that he is also exploring a candidacy in Senate district 17, pending Hatch’s decision on whether to run for governor. Given that Hatch recently hired Grant Woodard to manage his exploratory committee and already ran a television commercial criticizing Governor Terry Branstad, I doubt there’s any realistic chance Hatch will seek another term in the Iowa Senate in 2014.

Blake has worked in the Consumer Protection Division of the Iowa Attorney General’s Office since 2011. He originally moved to Des Moines out of law school and, after a few years in private practice, worked on Barack Obama’s presidential campaign in Iowa in 2007 and 2008. Blake then served as special assistant to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Under Secretary for Food, Nutrition, and Consumer Services Kevin Concannon.

Assuming Hatch runs for governor, the Senate district 17 Democratic primary could become an interesting generational battle between Bisignano and Chiodo, two war horses of the south side, and Blake, a relatively fresh face on the scene. Young professional Chris Diebel opted to run for the Des Moines City Council instead of for this Senate seat.

How about a new thread on the Iowa caucuses? The off-year caucuses in 2014 could be extremely important on the Republican side. The U.S. Senate nomination could be decided at a statewide GOP convention, if no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June primary. Furthermore, supporters of Governor Terry Branstad will need to focus on electing delegates at the precinct, county, and district levels, if rumors of an attempt to replace Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds on the ticket are accurate.

Democrats in the first Congressional district have extra incentive to turn out supporters for the 2014 caucuses as well, in case none of the five declared candidates in IA-01 wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the primary.

As for the next presidential-year caucuses, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota was the featured speaker at the north Iowa Democrats’ “Wing Ding” event in Clear Lake last Friday. She indicated that she is not interested in running for president and even joked that Minnesota supplies the country with vice presidents. If Hillary Clinton does not run for president again, Klobuchar is one of several Democratic senators who might join the race.

Former U.S. Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts visited the Iowa State Fair on Sunday with his wife, Iowa native Gail Huff. He wants to know if there is substantial support for his “brand of leadership and Republicanism.” I can hardly imagine a worse fit than Brown for Iowa Republican caucus-goers.

Speaking of which, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey signed a bill banning so-called gay conversion therapy for minors in his state. That intrusion on parental decision-making will be a deal-breaker for social conservatives.

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, the new darling of the Iowa Republican base, has released his birth certificate to show that he is eligible to run for president. He will also renounce his dual Canadian citizenship.

Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, my early pick to win the 2016 Iowa caucuses, previewed his future case against GOP members of Congress who may become rivals for the presidential nomination.

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign revealed today that it has recruited 1,040 county co-chairs, including multiple volunteers in every county. I’ve posted the official announcement below. You can view the full list of Branstad-Reynolds co-chairs here (pdf). The campaign plans to line up chairs in every Iowa precinct.

This show of organizational force will cement the conventional wisdom that Branstad is favored to win a sixth term, assuming he seeks re-election. It may also fuel rumors in some Iowa Democratic circles that the governor is planning to stand aside for Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds. The deliberate branding of “Branstad-Reynolds,” which Bleeding Heartland discussed here, is apparent in today’s press release. Every testimonial from a county co-chair mentions the “governor and lieutenant governor” as a unit, as well as both Branstad and Reynolds by name.

The governor and lieutenant governor have made fourteen joint public appearances in the last two weeks alone. That’s consistent with the Branstad administration’s pattern in recent months but a departure from the traditional role of Iowa’s lieutenant governors, who have largely handled events the governor doesn’t have time to attend. Some Democrats believe that Reynolds is being groomed to step in as the candidate.

If Branstad bows out shortly before the filing deadline next March, an organization with more than 1,000 volunteers could easily collect enough signatures for Reynolds to qualify for the ballot as a gubernatorial candidate. In contrast, other Republicans would be hard-pressed to collect at least 3,654 valid signatures spread across at least ten counties on short notice.

I still believe Branstad will run for re-election, barring some catastrophic health event. Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- An alternate rumor has Branstad planning to resign in the middle of his sixth term, turning the office over to Reynolds. Perhaps for that reason, some conservative Republicans are plotting to try to replace Reynolds on the ticket at next summer’s statewide convention, according to longtime political reporter Mike Glover. Branstad told reporters today, “We’re not afraid of any challenge” to Reynolds for the lieutenant governor slot.

State Senator Jack Hatch is spotlighting Governor Terry Branstad’s speeding scandal in the first television commercial of the 2014 Iowa gubernatorial campaign. I’ve posted the “Smokey and the Branstad” video after the jump. It’s apparently running on Des Moines broadcast networks between August 11 and 14, and Hatch for Iowa is seeking donations to keep it on the air longer. To my knowledge, Cedar Rapids Gazette columnist Todd Dorman was the first to put the “Smokey and the Branstad” label on this scandal.

Most political consultants wouldn’t recommend advertising in August before the election year, but this speeding scandal has generated a lot of negative chatter about Branstad, even from conservative editorial boards like the Sioux City Journal, Cedar Rapids Gazette, and Quad-City Times. A lawsuit filed late last week by fired Department of Criminal Investigation agent Larry Hedlund may keep the story in the news well into 2014.

Most candidates launch a television advertising campaign with some kind of biographical spot, but Hatch opted to introduce himself with a broadly-held opinion (“Nobody’s above the law”) instead. The words on screen in the middle of the ad (“Cited: Cronyism, Pressuring Public Officials”) allude to conclusions of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, which published a report last month on the country’s worst governors.

I’ve also posted below State Senator Matt McCoy’s endorsement of Hatch, which he announced over the weekend.

Some intensely competitive elections are coming up in Iowa, and naturally, Bleeding Heartland readers will have different preferences regarding the best Democratic candidate for governor, first Congressional district, or other races. I noticed some problems with comment ratings on this post about the Des Moines City Council at-large election, which pits two well-liked Democrats against each other.

It’s time for another reminder about the rules for rating comments at Bleeding Heartland, so I’ve posted them after the jump. “Zero” ratings can lead to comments being hidden from view and should not be used to signal your disagreement with the commenter. Doing so is ratings abuse. A “2” is sufficient to show that you strongly disagree with the person. If you have applied a 1 or zero rating to a comment based solely on your opinion, please go back to that diary and remove your rating from the comment.  

It’s been a banner week for State Representative Tyler Olson. Not only did the top two Iowa Senate Democrats both rule out running for governor, Olson gained public support from State Senator Bob Dvorsky. He posted on Facebook last night, “I’m not just endorsing Tyler, but the idea of creating a new vision for Iowa that will lead our state into the next 30 years of innovation and prosperity.” Dvorsky’s wife, Sue Dvorsky, preceded Olson as Iowa Democratic Party chair and “enthusiastically” endorsed his candidacy a few weeks ago. Olson also has the backing of State Senator Janet Petersen, with whom he served in the Iowa House, and State Senator Rob Hogg, whom he has known for the last decade, as well as several Iowa House Democrats.

The endorsements for Olson are a bit awkward for State Senator Jack Hatch, who hasn’t secured the public support of any fellow legislators as he explores a gubernatorial campaign.

I understand jumping on board with a candidate you believe in, but at the same time, I feel that a Democratic establishment stampede to any candidate (as happened with Brad Anderson’s secretary of state campaign) is premature when the field isn’t even set. In addition to Olson and Hatch, former State Representative Bob Krause is running for governor, and State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald hasn’t ruled out the race. The Iowa Democratic Party would benefit from at least one spirited statewide primary contest next spring, especially since the U.S. Senate race is just a coronation on our side.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. After the jump I’ve posted Olson’s first campaign video, a biographical piece released online last week.  

Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum has decided against running for governor in 2014, she confirmed by telephone yesterday. Although she has been “overwhelmed by encouragement from people” across Iowa, she sad her most important priority is her daughter Sarah. Jochum is the primary caregiver for Sarah, an adult with developmental disabilities, and she decided it would be difficult to balance her daughter’s needs with an “18/7” statewide campaign for governor. Jochum added that she greatly enjoys being president of the Iowa Senate, a position to which she was elected last November.

Similar considerations prompted Jochum to opt out of the first Congressional district race earlier this year. Raising money for a Congressional bid and campaigning across 20 counties would have been almost as time-consuming as running for governor. Jochum is not up for re-election in the Iowa Senate until 2016, and her Dubuque-based district 50 is safe as long as she desires to serve.

Governor Terry Branstad’s campaign announced today that it has hired field directors in each of Iowa’s four Congressional districts. I enclose below the press release with background on Matt Leopold, Nic Pottebaum, Kaylee Carnahan, and Jacob Johnson. All four field directors have campaign experience, and all but Carnahan have Iowa campaign experience.

Reading the press release, I was struck by the way the governor’s campaign staff continue to talk about the “Branstad-Reynolds committee” in official communications as well as in less formal settings. The campaign’s registered name is Governor Branstad Committee. Lately Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds has accompanied Branstad to many public events. Traditionally, Iowa’s lieutenant governors have been sent out to handle events the governor could not attend, so that the administration could cover more ground. The “Branstad-Reynolds” team branding effort is one reason some Iowa Democrats suspect that the governor may announce shortly before next year’s filing deadline that he is not running for re-election–clearing a path for Reynolds to step in as the Republican establishment candidate for governor. I expect Branstad to seek a sixth term, barring a serious health problem.

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal announced tonight that he will not run for governor in 2014. Gubernatorial candidate Bob Krause tweeted that Gronstal told the audience at the Pottawattamie County annual Democratic fundraiser that his Senate seat is needed to maintain the Democrats’ 26-24 Senate majority. IA-03 Congressional candidate Gabriel De La Cerda also reported Gronstal’s announcement. Gronstal has represented the Council Bluffs area in the Iowa Senate for many years and was just re-elected to another four-year term in 2012. Since he’s not up for re-election in 2014, he could have run for governor without giving up his seat. However, if he became governor a special election would be called in Senate district 8. Republicans hold both of the Iowa House seats in that district.

I am not surprised by Gronstal’s decision. I was more surprised when he said he was seriously considering the race. While I agree he could be a good governor, and other Democrats could be excellent Senate majority leaders, I would be concerned about finding another Democrat who could hol

UPDATE: Gronstal told Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson that he made the decision in the last ten days, adding, “I think Terry Branstad is imminently [eminently] beatable. This is not the same Terry Branstad that was governor back in the ’80s who understood the spirit of compromise, so I think we have a much more ideological governor. I am confident we (Democrats) can find a candidate who will be able to beat him.”

SECOND UPDATE: Gronstal’s official statement is after the jump.

I expect Governor Terry Branstad to seek a sixth term next year, but lately I’ve been wondering what could happen if he announces at the last minute that he’s not running. Could Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds step in right before the filing deadline and use the funds raised by Branstad-Reynolds to finance her own gubernatorial campaign?

The short answer is “probably not.” The longer answer is after the jump.

Governor Terry Branstad got good news and bad news from the latest Quinnipiac statewide poll, released today. The survey of 1,256 registered Iowa voters between July 15 and 17 found that Branstad is in positive territory with Iowans: 51 percent approve of his work as governor, while just 33 percent disapprove. Moreover, 50 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of Branstad, while 37 percent view him unfavorably. Another good sign for the incumbent: 67 percent were either very or somewhat satisfied with “the way things are going in Iowa today”; just 31 percent said they were very or somewhat dissatisfied.

On the downside, just 43 percent of respondents said Branstad deserves to be re-elected; 46 percent said he does not. About 54 percent said the governor “has been in office long enough,” while 37 percent said he should seek another term.

No one’s going to panic at Terrace Hill over this poll. Thinking abstractly that Branstad should retire is different from choosing to vote for someone else. Clearly many people in that “long enough” group like Branstad and think he’s doing a decent job. I doubt those people would vote for a challenger unless they felt that Branstad was physically unable to serve for another four years.

The potential Democratic candidates for governor are mostly unknown to Iowa voters. About 77 percent of Quinnipiac’s respondents haven’t heard enough about Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal to form an opinion, 85 percent said the same about State Senator Jack Hatch, and 92 percent said the same about State Representative Tyler Olson.

Full results from the Quinnipiac poll including questionnaire and cross-tabs can be viewed here (pdf). Olson’s campaign was quick to send out an e-mail blast touting the poll as proof that Iowans agree it’s “time for a new start in the Governor’s office.” I posted that message after the jump. I haven’t seen any comment from the Branstad campaign about the new poll, but I also enclosed below a statement released today touting the governor’s job creation efforts.

Public Policy Polling has a new poll out on the Iowa governor and U.S. Senate races. Click here for Tom Jensen’s summary and here (pdf) for full results with questionnaire and cross-tabs. PPP surveyed 668 registered Iowa voters between July 5 and 7, producing a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

Highlights: both President Barack Obama (46/50) and Governor Terry Branstad (45/46) are slightly underwater on approval ratings. However, Branstad has double-digit leads over Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, State Senator Jack Hatch, and State Representative Tyler Olson. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds is much less known than Branstad and is tied with or barely ahead of the Democratic candidates in hypothetical gubernatorial match-ups.

In the Senate race, Democratic Representative Bruce Braley has higher name recognition than any of the Republicans and is more liked than disliked by Iowans who have an opinion about him (34 favorable/24 unfavorable). In head to head match-ups, he leads Matt Whitaker by 9 points, Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst and Mark Jacobs by 12 points, and David Young by 13 points.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I wouldn’t read too much into horse race polling 16 months before the election, especially since none of the Senate candidates are particularly well-known, nor are the Democrats running for governor. Braley polls about the same against any of the Republicans now, but as the campaign progresses I believe it will become apparent that certain GOP candidates have more upside than Clovis, for example.  

State Representative Tyler Olson kicked off his campaign for governor in Cedar Rapids this morning. His central theme is no surprise: Iowa needs “fresh leadership” and specifically a leader who appreciates diversity and “understands the speed at which the world is changing.” Olson is 37 years old, while Governor Terry Branstad and the two other Democrats running for governor are all in their 60s.

Olson is on the web here, as well as on Facebook and twitter. After the jump I’ve posted his campaign announcement and some clips from today’s news coverage.

UPDATE: State Senator Rob Hogg spoke at today’s event in Cedar Rapids and confirmed via e-mail that he has endorsed Olson for governor. When Hogg was first elected to the Iowa Senate in 2006, Olson won the Iowa House district Hogg had previously represented. Sue Dvorsky, Olson’s predecessor as Iowa Democratic Party chair, confirmed that she is also “enthusiastically” supporting his gubernatorial campaign.

SECOND UPDATE: State Senator Janet Petersen of Des Moines also endorsed Olson today.

THIRD UPDATE: State Representative Sharon Steckman of Mason City confirmed that she is also endorsing Olson for governor. I’ve added more news clips below.

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign announced four hires today in preparation for next year’s election. I’ve posted the campaign press release after the jump. Phil Valenziano, who will serve as political director, joined the Branstad campaign full-time two months ago to focus on grassroots organizing and public events. Jake Ketzner and Jimmy Centers will serve as campaign manager and communications director, respectively. Both have worked in the governor’s office for some time but left for a while to help run Representative Steve King’s 2012 re-election campaign. Vonna Hall will be the Branstad campaign’s office manager after doing the same job for the Republican Party of Iowa since 2010. So far, Branstad’s campaign has $2 million cash on hand. When the fundraising reports are available online, Bleeding Heartland will take a closer look at the donors.

Meanwhile, State Representative Tyler Olson has scheduled public events for July 9 in Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, and Mason City. Of those cities, only Cedar Rapids is in the first Congressional district, making it a near-certainty that Olson will announce his campaign for governor tomorrow. The four-term Iowa House Democrat is roughly the same age Branstad was when he first ran for governor in 1982. Two other Democrats have previously announced plans to run for governor: State Senator Jack Hatch and former State Representative Bob Krause.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread. My Facebook and Twitter feeds are replete with jokes about Branstad racing “full speed ahead” on his campaign–a reference to the speeding incident that prompted a 25-year veteran of the Iowa Division of Criminal Investigation to file a formal complaint. There is no excuse for state troopers driving the governor at 20-25 mph over the speed limit. He’s not above the law and shouldn’t endanger people’s lives to get back on what Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds calls an “ambitious schedule.” It’s not credible to suggest that Branstad has no input on the driving or didn’t realize his SUV he was riding in was speeding.

The Iowa Democratic Party launched an anti-Branstad “Iowa Problem Causer” website today. Republicans (not clear whether in Iowa or on the National Republican Senatorial Committee) have registered a similarly named Iowa Problem Causer site to shine an unflattering spotlight on Representative Bruce Braley. The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate is presenting himself as an “Iowa Problem Solver.”

UPDATE: Senate President Pam Jochum told the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald that she is not likely to run for governor next year, “but I haven’t made up mind for sure.”

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court has determined that the federal Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional. The ruling means that legally married gay and lesbian couples in Iowa and elsewhere will be entitled to equal treatment under federal law. More than 200 Congressional Democrats, including Senator Tom Harkin and Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack, signed an amicus curiae brief urging justices to strike down the key provision of the DOMA, adopted in 1996 with overwhelming bipartisan support.  

In a separate case, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that backers of California’s Proposition 8 did not have standing to appeal a lower-court ruling striking down that ballot initiative. The decision means that LGBT couples will be allowed to marry in California. It does not affect other states’ statutory or constitutional bans on same-sex marriage. Braley and Loebsack were among scores of Congressional Democrats who recently posed for the “NoH8” campaign supporting marriage equality and opposing Prop 8.

Excerpts from the DOMA decision and Iowa reaction to today’s rulings are after the jump. I will update this post as needed. At this writing, most of the Congressional delegation has not publicly commented on the Supreme Court decisions.

I also enclose below Democratic State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad’s reaction to yesterday’s disgraceful 5-4 Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act.