Election day in House district 90

Today’s the big day in Iowa House district 90. Latest news from the race:

Beth Dalbey wrote a good feature on the campaign for Iowa Independent. I didn’t realize that Republican candidate Stephen Burgmeier ran for Jefferson County supervisor as a Democrat and later as an independent before switching to the Republican Party.

One Iowa and the Interfaith Alliance of Iowa Action Fund filed a formal ethics complaint against the National Organization for Marriage with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board.

The NOM claims to be in compliance with Iowa law.

Post any thoughts or election predictions in this thread. I am having trouble making a prediction. This race “should” go to Burgmeier because low-turnout special elections favor the opposition party, and because conservative interest groups have advertised much more heavily in the district. On the other hand, I hear field organizers supporting Curt Hanson on the ground have been doing a tremendous job. I will update this post with my final prediction this afternoon.

I agree with Kathie Obradovich, who argued last week:

This is primarily a local race. So what will the outcome say about the larger political landscape? Republicans have the most to gain and the least to lose. If Burgmeier fails, they can point to the Democratic advantage in the district. If he wins, it will be another boost for GOP voters. It’ll look like a rejection of Culver and the Democrats’ policies.

Still, another State Fair will have come and gone before the general election. Both parties will have a chance to learn from any mistakes in this race, and voters will have long forgotten them. Victory will be as sweet as cotton candy and probably just as long-lasting.

The state of the economy next fall will be much more important for the 2010 Iowa legislative races than whatever happens in House district 90 today.

UPDATE: Trying to be optimistic, but unfortunately I think Burgmeier will win this narrowly (53-47).

  • I side with Obradovich...

    I think Hanson will win, but it will be close: maybe 55% to 50% or there about.

    Republicans will say that they did better than expected in overcoming the registered Democrat numerical advantage; Democrats will say that the fact that they held the seat in an off-year is victory enough. In the end, not a real victory for either side.

    Republicans lose, but they had little to lose in the first place.

    • I am not so optimistic

      I feel like Burgmeier is going to win. We’re in the middle of the worst recession in 25 years, and I wouldn’t be surprised to have a bit of a backlash because of Varnum v Brien. I’m told that there was a backlash in Vermont in November 2000 after civil unions passed in the spring of that year. I don’t expect marriage equality to be as big an issue in November 2010 as it may be now for an energized Republican base in a low-turnout environment.

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