Redistricting Iowa 2-1-1

(Thanks to abgin for writing this diary. Last year Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 examined three other possible maps of Iowa with four Congressional districts. - promoted by desmoinesdem)

Interested in many political issues, this is my first diary here. I publish previously this bid for redistricting Iowa in SwingStateProject, and desmoinesdem tell me for publish it here. Then, I'm here. I hope the people find it interesting.

Sorry if you see some mistake writing, but I'm not a native speaker.

The best luck for the democrats from Iowa 🙂

I have some trouble for include the image. The html text what I copy from photobucket run not, but I will bid include the image again. While I can, you can see the image in my diary in Swing State Project:

 http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8110/redistricting-iowa-211

[note from desmoinesdem: I added the image]

Photobucket

CD-01: B Braley (D)
57.98% Obama => D+5 (Currently D+5)
Based in Davenport (3rd city in Iowa)
Includes all of: Scott, Clinton, Jackson, Dubuque, Delaware, Clayton, Allamakee, Buchanan, Fayette, Winneshiek, Black Howk, Bremer, Chickasaw, Howard, Grundy, Butler, Floyd, Mitchell, Worth, Cerro Gordo and Franklin counties.

CD-02: D Loebsack (D)
57.97% Obama => D+5 (Currently D+7)
Based in Cedar Rapids (2nd city in Iowa)
Includes all of: Jones, Cedar, Muscatine, Louisa, Des Moines, Linn, Johnson, Washington, Henry, Lee, Benton, Iowa, Keokuk, Jefferson, Van Buren, Tama, Poweshiek, Mahaska, Wapello, Davis, Monroe, Appanoose, Lucas and Wayne counties.

CD-03: L Boswell (D) and T Latham (R)
53.75% Obama => D+1 (Currently D+1 and EVEN)
Based in Des Moines (1st city in Iowa)
Includes all of: Hardin, Marshall, Jasper, Marion, Hamilton, Story, Polk, Warren, Clarke, Boone, Dallas and Madison.

CD-04: S King (R)
46.05% Obama => R+7 (Currently R+9)
Based in Sioux City (4th city in Iowa)
Includes all of: The rest of the counties.

They are compact districts what respect the boundaries of the counties and respect the unity of the metropolitan areas in the state.

In every bid for redistricting the new CD-01 and CD-02 districts are in risk of lose some point in the Cook PVI rating because both districts must asume new areas from districts with less democratic rating. Still I think this model for redistricting Iowa keep both enough safe. The same reason makes the future CD-04 down from R+9 until R+7.

The new CD-03 can give a decent chance to L Boswell because every bid for make a new district here what keep all the Polk county (and Marshall too) inside the district will give a strong position to L Boswell against T Latham. And it is so difficult to divide this strong area for L Boswell without an agressive republican gerrymander. I think L Boswell can be competitive in 2012 if he runs.

This bid find not the limits, but I think the limits are not far from here.

 

(Update) For this type of polls I give habitually a numerical average of the results. In a 0-10 scale, like this:

— 00.000 —

Safe Republican

— 01.429 —

Likely Republican

— 02.857 —

Leans Republican

— 04.286 —

Toss-Up

— 05.714 —

Leans Democratic

— 07.142 —

Likely Democratic

— 08.571 —

Safe Democratic

— 10.000 —

After 10 votes = 04.667 => Toss-Up Tilt Republican

  • thanks for cross-posting

    This is a very compact map. It makes sense, because it keeps the Des Moines metro area in the same district and the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City corridor in the same district. Braley keeps the major metro areas he’s been representing.

    I think Latham would have the edge in that kind of IA-03, because he’s been representing many of those counties for the last decade already.

    I have been wondering whether we’ll see a bit more moderation in Latham’s votes going forward as he anticipates running in Polk County. He was one of only 17 House Republicans to vote for the child nutrition act last week.

    • Thank you for include the image

      Some little trouble makes I can not before your help.

      Looking to the overall map about the redistricting, I think the gains of the democrats in the next cycle will be not high without win seats a district like this new IA-03.

      If we look to this new IA-03 as a potential pick-up, this seat would be the 20th in my list of potential pick ups for the next cycle.

      If we look to this new IA-03 as a potential retention, this seat would be the 10th democratic seat with higher risk.

      • sorry, the right numbers

        IA-03 would be the 20th best chance as pick-up (including the new districts what can have democratic leaning).

        IA-03 would be the 14th seat in higher risk as retention (including the democratic seats what likely will disappear).

        The republicans would have other gains (new seats with republican leaning).

  • for comparison

    Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 examined three other possible maps of Iowa last year.

  • PROBLEM

    There is only one problem with this map.  I believe that Congressman Latham is a resident of Franklin County, which, under this scenario would put him in the same district with Congressman Braley, not Congressman Boswell

    • Wouldn't be the first time...

      It wouldn’t be the first time that a politician has had to move for political reasons. Boswell packed up for Des Moines, when his district was shifted around in 2000.

      • Boz stepped on toes

        Matt McCoy was already up and running. Boswell was districted into the 5th; could he have beat Steve King? Maybe, and I’d thank my stars to settle for a blue dog out of that district.

    • he moved to Story County

      several years ago, I think in part to be closer to grandchildren. He is Tom Latham (R, Ames) now.

  • I would put a Latham race against any Democrat

    as likely Republican unless your name is Tom Vilsack.  I think there are numerous Democrats who would give it a good go.  If it ends up being a no-win situation, you might as well let Ed Fallon have his day, maybe he’ll spark a fire under the Democratic base.  

    • I wouldn't call it likely Republican

      as Polk County still has a substantial Democratic voter registration edge. But I would call it lean Republican unless Democrats have an extremely strong nominee.

      • Valid point

        I think if Latham would speak up more than he would be in more danger of losing, but you aren’t likely to catch him making some of the mistakes Zaun made.  I also think Latham would make a more coherent argument against the health care legislation when you compare him to Zaun, just a hunch that I have.  

        • the campaign strategy used against Zaun

          won’t work against Latham. Even if there were similar dirt on Latham (personal finances or relationships), it would be considered old news when the candidate has served eight terms in Congress. Latham would have to be involved in some scandal for that kind of campaign to work.  

    • What if that were half right?

      Would you still put it at likely Republican if half your name was Christie Vilsack?

      • Good point

        I would put it as Lean Republican possibly.  I think Latham would be able to try to paint Christie as to the left of her husband (which she probably is.)  It would depend upon how well she campaigned in a direct way with her own opposition.  Latham is a smart cookie in my estimation.  

        • eh?

          Have you ever been to one of his town meetings?  He is a broken record of Repub talking points delivered in a style that makes Obama look hot-headed.

          • I never said he wasn't a Eepublican

            I never said Latham wasn’t a conservative Republican.  My point in calling him a smart cookie is that he doesn’t lead on conservative causes like King does and goes without the target on his back because of it.

            I haven’t been to his town halls, but I have seen his show on Mediacom and he doesn’t come across at over the top crazy on there, but he is on script there.  You make a valid point I haven’t been to his town halls given that Loebsack and previously Jim Leach were my Congressman.

            Not to wander off topic too much, but I haven’t voted for Loebsack yet, but I probably will have to in 2012 presuming the Republicans nominate a person way out of the mainstream.  

  • WHOOPS!!

    Thank you for your comment–I stand corrected about Congressman Latham’s residence.  Didn’t see those moving trucks headed to Ames.

  • I update the diary for include a numerical average of the result of the poll

    Thanks to all.

  • one point worth mentioning

    Until we get the final census numbers for the counties we won’t know whether this map has a small enough population difference between the districts. It looks like it’s in the ballpark, but the commission may be able to find other maps that are as compact with smaller population variance.

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