Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

Some things are hard to predict. Why is my cell phone obsolete after a month? Which Hawkeye quarterback will play Saturday? Will the Stranger Things cast be on Medicare before it returns to Netflix, and which cabinet position will Donald Trump give to Dr. Phil?

Other things are easy to predict. A match between a 58-year-old biting-boxer and a 27-year-old YouTuber will always feature dancing and a few scripted punches. If you’re a male over age 60 on Facebook, and a 20-something woman with a revealing neckline says your posts are fascinating, she’s scamming you. 

The most predictable thing: Iowa’s ruling trifecta, led by a governor desperate to get her MAGA creds back, will ram extreme public education bills through the legislature next year.

It may feel like a legislative derecho.  

Governor Kim Reynolds has said she’ll cut property taxes this legislative session. But she’s silent about what will replace the lost revenue for public schools and other essential county and city services. She also is silent about how she wants to make the cuts. 

Will she use a scalpel or an axe?

Revenue replacing property tax needs to be predictable and sustainable. Schools begin planning their budgets for the next year in September, so they can publish a final budget by April 15. 

By law, the legislature is supposed to approve state funding for K-12 school districts (known as State Supplemental Aid) within 30 days after the governor releases her budget in January. But in recent years, the Republican-controlled Iowa House and Senate have ignored that deadline, leaving school districts guessing. Without knowing the funding level for the coming year, school districts begin to consider laying off already hard to find educators. Districts will need a guarantee about the amount of replacement revenue.

The funding source must also be sustainable. That’s why school funding was tied to property taxes in th first place. Those who created Iowa’s school funding formula during the early 1970s understood there would always be property to tax, which guaranteed sustainable funding for schools, allowing them to survive and thrive.

That’s now at risk.

Every part of the state has legislative forums before the session begins. Please don’t let legislators talk about property tax cuts without also explaining replacing lost revenue. When they begin to dance, stop the music and get some answers.

I predict that as in Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma, we’ll see bills seeking to force-feed one brand of Christianity in public schools.

All kids of any religion or no religion should be comfortable in our public schools. Just a few years ago, conservative legislators accused teachers of being “pornographers” or “groomers,” or having a “sinister agenda.” It’s amazing some Republicans now want those same teachers teaching what would amount to public Sunday school.

I predict that even though the Iowa Public Employee Retirement System (IPERS) is financially sound, there will be an effort to change the main public pension system, so it resembles a 401(k) model where retirement is based on the employee and employer contributions and the market. 

For years, this has been a Republican goal. Now, with a perceived mandate and a super majority, they’ll be emboldened. The scheme has always been to make changes for new public employees and leave veterans with a defined benefit. That could destroy the system. It also would encourage massive retirement before the change and would devastate recruitment of new educators. 

I also predict the continued underfunding of public schools.  Because of vouchers, a two-tier, publicly funded school system is fiscally unsustainable.

Wannabe professor-legislators will further meddle in university curriculum.

Unfortunately, as in the U.S. House, instead of tackling education issues, the Iowa House may try to “protect” their women by restricting which bathroom Aime Wichtendahl (Iowa’s first transgender legislator) may use.

I’m frequently wrong. But the one thing I’m positive about is there’s no mandate for destroying Iowa public schools. Let the legislators know before they go back to work on January 13, 2025.