Robin Opsahl covers the state legislature and politics for Iowa Capital Dispatch, where this article first appeared.

The Iowa Revenue Estimating Conference on October 16 lowered its estimates for the state’s tax revenue in fiscal year 2026 by $375 million compared to predictions from March of this year.

The panel, chaired by Iowa Department of Management Director Kraig Paulsen, approved changes to the revenue estimates in light of recent economic shifts and tax policy changes like the federal “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” the budget reconciliation measure President Donald Trump signed in July. The nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency reported the state’s revenue in fiscal year 2025 was $198 million below the panel’s March forecast because of the impact of federal tax law changes.

Paulsen said the new REC estimates account for both the reduced state revenue due to federal tax policies, the impacts of the state’s 2024 acceleration of previously approved income tax cuts, as well as economic factors like rising unemployment rates and China’s move to import soybeans from South American countries instead of U.S. producers.

The state revenue is forecast to decline by 9 percent in FY 2026 (which began on July 1), more than the March forecast’s 4.8 percent percent estimated decrease. This lowers the predicted state revenue from $8.5 billion in the current fiscal year to a projected $8.1 billion.

Iowa lawmakers and Governor Kim Reynolds approved a $9.4 billion budget this year, meaning the new projections have increased the expected gap between the state’s income and spending to $1.3 billion. Republican leaders have repeatedly said they were planning to take money from the Taxpayer Relief Fund and the state surplus to finance income tax cuts. Paulsen said the state has roughly $6 billion in the Taxpayer Relief Fund and other reserves that will be used to weather expected revenue decreases.

Paulsen said GOP leadership sees the state revenue change as allowing Iowans to keep more money through collecting less in income taxes.

“This reduction in revenue also does not mean the state is in a poor economic condition, but that revenue previously being collected by the state, once again, is being left in the pockets of hardworking Iowans,” Paulsen said. “Obviously, we are not in a period of state’s most robust growth, but we do continue to see to see growth.”

But Democratic state leaders said the latest REC figures show Republican budgeting practices will lead to financial struggles for the state government in future years. State Senator Janet Petersen, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, criticized GOP leaders for drawing from one-time funding through the state’s reserves for initiatives like the income tax cuts and Education Savings Account program, providing public funding for private school tuition and associated costs, while not providing more funding for public education.

“Statehouse Republicans created a billion-dollar budget deficit with their corporate tax cuts and private school vouchers,” Petersen said in a news conference. “This isn’t just a dip in revenues. This is a historic drop. The majority’s plan is to bleed our reserves dry to pay for their giveaways. The billion-dollar hole they created in the state budget is ongoing, but our reserve funds aren’t.”

Paulsen and the two other members of the panel said though they are predicting further drops in revenue in FY 2026 during a time when the state is already drawing on reserve funds, they believe Iowa is still in a strong financial position entering FY 2027 and future years.

Paulsen said he still believes revenue will rebound in future years, though Jennifer Acton, rdirector of the LSA Fiscal Services division, said an economic recession could alter that trajectory.

“Since the largest impact to the state income tax rate will materialize in FY 2026, we would anticipate seeing average general fund revenues begin to stabilize and increase starting in FY 2027, absent an economic downturn,” Acton said.

Paulsen said “based on what we know today,” the REC was not anticipating a recession on the horizon, but said he believes the state is in a sound fiscal place for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

“Is this where we want to be? Is the most comfortable spot? No,” Paulsen told reporters after the REC meeting. “But we’re in a really good spot, and … the state of Iowa is in a good financial condition.”

Republican State Representative Gary Mohr, who chairs the House Appropriations Committee, said lawmakers had “intentionally” chosen to allow the state budget to exceed state revenues by passing the income tax cuts, “because Iowans were desperate for immediate relief from former President Biden’s failed economic policies” and because the state had reserves to make up for the drop.

“Despite a mixed economic picture locally and nationally, Iowa remains in a strong financial position,” Mohr said in a statement. “We have over $6 billion in cash on hand, and our reserve funds are at their statutory maximums. Iowa is in a better position than most states to handle economic uncertainties due to Iowa Republicans’ responsible budgeting over the past decade.”

The governor also released a statement saying Iowa was in a “strong financial position,” and that the changes to projected revenues were largely because of the federal budget reconciliation bill.

“Iowa’s strong fiscal health is due to a strong commitment to fiscal conservatism by my administration and legislative leadership, and we will continue to be good stewards of taxpayer dollars,” Reynolds said.

The REC meets again in December to approve the revenue estimate appropriators will use during the 2026 legislative session, when they draft a budget for fiscal year 2027.