Five takeaways from Jeb Bush's first money drop on Iowa Republicans

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush made a strong statement on Friday when his political action committee announced $122,800 in donations to Republican parties and candidates in early presidential nominating states. The Right to Rise PAC gave $10,000 to the Republican Party of Iowa and $5,200 each to U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley and Representative David Young (IA-03).

The money Bush gave (and didn’t give) in Iowa speaks volumes.

1. Bush is serious about competing in Iowa.

Anyone who’s been paying attention should know that already, given that Bush hired influential Iowa political consultant David Kochel and committed to attending Bruce Rastetter’s Iowa Agriculture forum next month. Still, some commentators have suggested that more moderate GOP presidential candidates should skip Iowa, where so many activists and caucus-goers are social conservatives.

2. Bush’s early lead in the money race poses a big threat for other “establishment” contenders.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has come to Iowa a dozen times in the past five years, most recently speaking in Dallas County, home to many in the “country club Republican” set. Former Texas Governor Rick Perry spent more days in Iowa in 2014 than any other potential presidential candidate, and he just hired four Iowa staffers to work for his RickPAC. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker hasn’t visited Iowa as often, but he made a good impression at the Iowa Freedom Summit in January, and last week his Our American Revival PAC opened an office in the Des Moines suburb of Urbandale.

Bush is getting a later start to his presidential campaign, but by making so many donations to Republicans in early states, he is reminding his rivals that his PAC already can afford to give away more than $122,000 while still paying staff salaries and overhead. Thanks to his connections as the son and brother of former presidents, as well as leading a populous state with a lot of wealthy constituents, Bush has unrivaled fundraising potential. He could raise more during the first six months of this year than most of the other GOP presidential candidates combined.

As Ramesh Ponnuru observed recently, “One reason the GOP establishment typically beats its enemies in the prez primaries: It winnows its field faster.” To raise enough money to run multiple statewide campaigns, Walker, Perry, and Christie will be under pressure this year to show big donors that Bush isn’t their only viable option.

3. Bush is serious about not pandering to the right.

Representative Steve King (IA-04) didn’t get any money from the Right to Rise PAC, and I’m sure that won’t change. King is among the most outspoken and dedicated opponents to comprehensive immigration reform. Bush has spoken sympathetically about the motives of undocumented immigrants who come to this country and advocates a reform including a path to citizenship or legal residence for many. Bush steered clear of King’s Iowa Freedom Summit in Des Moines last month, where Walker, Perry, and Christie all turned up, along with many other presidential hopefuls.

Bush does not apologize for his record on education policy, even though “Common Core” are dirty words for many Iowa Republicans. He appears committed trying to win the nomination without kowtowing to conservatives.

4. Representative Rod Blum is not seen as a neutral player on the Iowa Republican scene.

Bush’s PAC didn’t give any money to the newly-elected member of Congress from Iowa’s first district, even though Blum’s seat will be a top target for Democrats in 2016. Perhaps Right to Rise will come around to supporting Blum later, but I suspect Blum is seen as too closely aligned with U.S. Senator Rand Paul, for reasons Bleeding Heartland discussed here. I’m curious to see whether other presidential candidates will make any effort to curry favor with Blum. From where I’m sitting, he may as well endorse Paul.

5. David Young’s would-be primary challengers will face an uphill battle.

For various reasons, Young appears likely to face at least one challenger in the 2016 GOP primary to represent IA-03. He won last year’s nomination by a fluke of party rules, which called for a district convention rather than a runoff between the top two primary finishers, then eliminated the bottom candidate after each convention ballot. Several central and southwest Iowa Republicans are rumored to be considering this race already.

Young has been pulling in lots of conservative and corporate PAC money, thanks to his connections to Senator Grassley. To date, many campaign contributions since the November election have gone toward retiring outstanding debt from Young’s 2014 primary campaign. (He hasn’t repaid any of the $250,000 he loaned his own campaign.) The $5,200 gift from Bush’s PAC is a reminder that many ambitious Republicans will give to Young, even if he is seen as unlikely to endorse a presidential candidate before the Iowa caucuses. Young should go into the 2016 primary campaign with a healthy war chest.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

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desmoinesdem

  • Bush is on the popular side of the immigration issue.

    Steve King is not.

    Just 17% of Americans support their [GOP’s] approach [Overturn Obama’s Immigration Policies], in a new Public Religion Research Institute poll. Meanwhile, 73 percent say congressional Republicans should prioritize passing comprehensive immigration reform. That includes: 85 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of independents, and 62 percent of Republicans

    I’m not sure what the results would be for Iowa Republican caucus goers.

    • I have seen polls

      suggesting that the majority of Iowa Republicans favor some path to citizenship, but I would guess that among caucus-goers that view is much less popular.

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