Time for a new thread to discuss possible candidates for governor next year. I think we can all agree that Governor Terry Branstad will seek a sixth term, barring some unforeseen health problem.

Many Democrats expect State Representative Tyler Olson to announce his gubernatorial campaign soon now that he has stepped down as Iowa Democratic Party state chair. His resignation letter previewed the obvious case for his candidacy: time for a new generation to step up and lead. Olson is roughly the same age Branstad was when he ran for governor the first time in 1982.

Other Democrats who are either formally exploring or considering the governor’s race are closer to Branstad’s current age: former State Representative Bob Krause, State Senator Jack Hatch, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, and State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald. After the jump I’ve posted Fitzgerald’s recent comments about a possible run for governor and a letter to the editor from Krause, who objects to being ignored by the Des Moines Register.  

State Senator Rob Hogg confirmed via e-mail this week that he will not run for governor in 2014 (or for Congress, U.S. Senate, or Iowa Secretary of State, he added). Hogg is up for re-election next year in Iowa Senate district 33, covering part of Cedar Rapids. He has been touring Iowa over the past month to promote his new book, America’s Climate Century: What Climate Change Means for America in the 21st Century and What Americans Can Do about It. I haven’t finished my copy yet, but it is readable and surprisingly optimistic in its call to action.  

To my knowledge, none of Iowa’s representatives in Congress has issued an official statement on the recent revelations about broad surveillance of phone and electronic communications by the National Security Agency. However, both Democratic Senator Tom Harkin and Republican Senator Chuck Grassley have commented to the media about the story. Notably, Harkin expressed concern about the scope of intelligence gathering and called for President Barack Obama to give better guidance. In contrast to his image as a supporter of whistle-blowers, Grassley has expressed more interest in prosecuting Edward Snowden (the source of the leaks) than in investigating the NSA’s activities. Details are after the jump.

On a related note, here is a must-read post for anyone comforted by the president’s comments last week (“nobody is listening to your telephone calls. That’s not what this program is about”). Sociology professor Kieran Healy pretends to be a security analyst for the King of England in 1772, a period of growing political unrest in the American Colonies. Using “metadata” analysis only–that is, looking at social connections with no information about the content of people’s conversations or writings–Healy was able to identify Paul Revere as a prime suspect in activities disloyal to the crown.

But I say again, if a mere scribe such as I-one who knows nearly nothing-can use the very simplest of these methods to pick the name of a traitor like Paul Revere from those of two hundred and fifty four other men, using nothing but a list of memberships and a portable calculating engine, then just think what weapons we might wield in the defense of liberty one or two centuries from now.

Hat tip to Nathan Yau at Flowing Data.

Yesterday Governor Terry Branstad traveled to Hiawatha, the home base of Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, to sign a wide-ranging bill on property taxes, income taxes, and the earned income tax credit. Senate File 295 passed both chambers of the Iowa legislature with bipartisan support. Every Republican voted for the bill, as did all but six Senate Democrats and thirteen House Democrats, named here. You can read the full text of Senate File 295 here. Bleeding Heartland covered the key points in the deal here.

The property tax law is one of the most important outcomes of this year’s legislative session. It will be a major theme in next year’s campaigns for governor and the state legislature. After the jump I offer five perspectives on this law: three from supporters of the deal and two with a gloomier view of its likely impact.

I’m cheating a bit this week, because while the featured wildflower is a bona fide Iowa native, I took the enclosed photographs at a butterfly garden in Windsor Heights, not in a natural woodland setting. In contrast to the unassuming littleleaf buttercup and sweet cicely profiled the last two weeks, Columbine has spectacular blossoms and is therefore popular in gardens. It can be found in the wild throughout Iowa as well. In past years, I’ve seen it growing along the Bill Riley bike trail in Des Moines.

The columbine that is native to Iowa looks quite different from the blue columbine that is the state flower of Colorado, but both plants are in the buttercup family.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

All week I’ve been meaning to compile news and commentary on the National Security Agency’s massive data collection. Long ago I stopped being surprised or disappointed by President Barack Obama’s policies on surveillance and civil liberties. Nevertheless, the information leaked by Edward Snowden is a big story.

Glenn Thrush remembered that “Snowden was the name of the sacrificial lamb/waist-gunner who haunted Yossarian” in Joseph Heller’s novel Catch-22. Inspired by that coincidence, I offer 22 links related to the NSA revelations after the jump.

A new study in a peer-reviewed journal indicates that pigs fed a diet containing genetically-modified corn and soy had more severe stomach inflammation and (in females) heavier uteri than pigs fed an equivalent diet in conventionally raised corn and soy that was not genetically-modified. You can read the full article describing research on an Iowa farm here (pdf). For a summary of key findings, click here or here. The pigs “were reared under identical housing and feeding conditions.”

These results are disturbing, considering that more than 90 percent of the corn and soybeans grown in Iowa are now “Roundup Ready” biotech varieties, sprayed with glyphosate, the key ingredient in Roundup herbicide. Many anecdotal reports have linked animal health problems to genetically-modified feed. At the 1000 Friends of Iowa annual meeting on June 8, large-animal veterinarian Arthur Dunham described nutritional deficiencies, fertility problems, and unexplained deaths that he has seen increasingly in the cattle and swine herds of his clients. Dunham has been in practice for nearly 40 years and presented data about lower levels of certain vitamins and minerals (including B-12, calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, potassium, manganese, and iron) in feed made from genetically-modified crops.

Monsanto and its allies dismiss such data as anecdotes and cite their own corporate-funded studies, which allegedly show the safety of GM crops. The new scholarly article describes the limitations of earlier research and calls for further studies on the subject. (Very few studies have been conducted over a time period longer than 90 days, for instance.) One Danish hog farmer saw big improvements after switching from genetically-modified feed, but Roundup crops are so dominant in this country that it can be hard for farmers to source animal feed that hasn’t been sprayed with glyphosate.

State Representative Tyler Olson is stepping down as Iowa Democratic Party chair. Scott Brennan, an attorney who served as party chair during the 2007/2008 cycle, will step in. Click here for background on Brennan. I’ve posted the IDP’s press release after the jump.

Many Democrats expect Olson to announce a candidacy for governor soon, although he hasn’t ruled out running for the open first Congressional district seat. Olson said recently that he would need to resign as party chair if he decided to run for anything other than the Iowa House in 2014. In retrospect, IDP State Central Committee members should have considered whether it was wise to elect a new party chair in January who had not ruled out running for governor. But for reasons I don’t understand, the Iowa Democratic Party leadership is only comfortable with Soviet-style elections, rubber-stamping the choice of the candidate who will be at the top of the ticket. One of these years, central committee members should allow a more open discussion when it’s time to elect a party leader. Meaning no offense toward Brennan, who is capable by all accounts, I believe Democrats could benefit from allowing multiple candidates to present plans for growing the party organization, improving communication, GOTV, and so on.

Assuming he runs for higher office, Olson will leave a safe Democratic Iowa House seat open in 2014. House district 65, covering a large area in Cedar Rapids east of I-380, contains 9,535 registered Democrats, 4,909 Republicans, and 7,296 no-party voters as of June 2013.

UPDATE: Speaking to Radio Iowa, Olson said he is unlikely to run for the Iowa House in 2014. He will decide on a Congressional or gubernatorial campaign in the next few weeks.

Sam Clovis announced yesterday that he will seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. Clovis is ending his conservative talk radio program and has a sabbatical for the coming academic year from Morningside College in Sioux City. After the jump I’ve posted more background on Clovis, including the statement of purpose he posted on his campaign website, as well as highlights from his news conference yesterday. You can watch clips from his speech here, and he is on Twitter here. Many Iowa conservatives will buy what Clovis is selling, but can he raise the money to run a strong statewide campaign?

Meanwhile, Alexander Burns reported at Politico yesterday that State Senator Joni Ernst is consulting with GOP strategist David Polyansky as she lays the groundwork for a Senate campaign.

“She’s making all the steps necessary to advance towards a campaign,” said one Republican close to Ernst. “I think she has the core nucleus [of a campaign] in place so that, should she decide to pull the trigger, she’d be able to do so fairly soon.”

The Sunday Des Moines Register featured a guest editorial by Mark Jacobs, a former energy company executive who is also considering the Senate race. After the jump I’ve posted some bullet points from that editorial, which focused on next steps for Iowa in education reform.

If no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June 2014 primary, a statewide convention will determine the GOP nominee for Senate.

UPDATE: I should have mentioned that Polyansky previously worked for the presidential campaigns of Mike Huckabee and Michele Bachmann, although he bailed on Bachmann a few months before the Iowa caucuses.

SECOND UPDATE: I keep forgetting Paul Lunde, who is also seeking the GOP nomination for Senate. James Lynch reports that if elected, Lunde “plans to introduce what he calls the ‘second Bill of Rights’ – 12 constitutional amendments that include making Social Security and Medicare permanent, changing the Electoral College, instituting a limited national sales tax and setting term limits for members of Congress.”

David Young and his campaign recently released an introductory video to youtube that runs about two and a half minutes.  The video is here.  I am sure I do not agree with Mr. Young on much and I have any number of critiques of his video.  However, it is a good video.  It does seem genuine; genuinely nerdy, but genuine.  

The biggest thing that struck me is the emotional experience of going back to your hometown to tell the people who will always know you best that you are going to ask them for their vote.  It is a combination of the beginning of a person’s biggest professional challenge in their lifetime with a “this is your life” trip bringing back personalities and memories from childhood.  David Young does not strike me a person who wears his emotions on his sleeve, but from personal experience I guarantee that this was a powerful event for him.  

Ned Chiodo confirmed by telephone today that he plans to run for Iowa Senate district 17 next year, assuming current State Senator Jack Hatch does not seek re-election to that office. Chiodo said that if he becomes a candidate, he will support a “progressive populist agenda.”

Chiodo served five terms in the Iowa House during the 1970s and 1980s, representing some neighborhoods on the south side of Des Moines that are now part of Senate district 17. He was elected Polk County auditor in 1984, when he retired from the Iowa House and Hatch ran successfully in the district he had represented. Chiodo has also been a registered lobbyist at the state legislature for a number of years.

Former State Senator Tony Bisignano became a candidate in Senate district 17 immediately after Hatch announced last month that he is exploring a gubernatorial bid. The June 2014 Democratic primary will be the real election in the district, where there are now 16,942 registered Democrats, 7,163 Republicans, and 11,137 no-party voters. Another possible Democratic candidate is Chris Diebel, a marketing specialist who is managing director of LPCA Public Strategies (Jeff Link’s political consulting outfit).

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. A detailed district map is after the jump.

Reanna Lewis of Des Moines delivered a brave and moving commencement address at Hoover High School this year. The Sunday Des Moines Register posted the audio of Lewis’ speech and published a partial transcript in the paper’s June 9 edition. The points she raised are so important that I’ve transcribed her whole speech after the jump.

How well do you focus on intellectual tasks when you are hungry, stressed out, or exhausted? Lewis spoke frankly about how her family’s emotional and financial struggles could have derailed her high school education. Child poverty and food insecurity are huge problems in Iowa. Nothing in the governor’s education reform blueprint or the final bill he signed last week will address those problems. Iowa students will not achieve on a world-class level until we improve our social safety net. Teacher training, classroom size, educational philosophy and student assessments can only go so far.

The Register’s lead editorial on Sunday pointed out, “Students can’t learn if they are hungry or sick. […] Students who drop out don’t necessarily do so because the courses are too difficult or teachers don’t have enough time for them. They leave because they are struggling outside school. From funding human services to helping families secure a living wage, Iowa can do more to help these families.” Amen to that.

Representative Bruce Braley and the Republicans seeking to replace U.S. Senator Tom Harkin are little known among Iowans, judging from the Des Moines Register’s latest statewide poll. Selzer & Co. surveyed 809 Iowa adults for the Register between June 2 and 5 and found that 57 percent didn’t know enough about Braley to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him. Even among respondents living in the first Congressional district, 34 percent were unsure about Braley.

The two declared Republican candidates for Senate, David Young and Matt Whitaker, were unknown to 74 percent and 82 percent of respondents, respectively. (For the record, I doubt that 26 percent of Iowans are truly familiar with Senator Chuck Grassley’s chief of staff. David Young is a fairly common name.) Some 88 percent said they were unsure about State Senator Joni Ernst, who is considered likely to run for Senate. Quinnipiac’s recent Iowa poll also indicated that few voters have an opinion about the likely Senate candidates.

The good news for all the candidates (including those not polled, such as Republican Sam Clovis) is that they have time to raise name recognition. Braley may also be relieved to know that of the respondents who expressed an opinion, 29 percent viewed him very or mostly favorably, while only 14 percent viewed him very or mostly unfavorably.

Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread.

The latest statewide poll by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Terry Branstad in a strong position if he seeks re-election next year. Among 809 Iowa adults surveyed between June 2 and 5, 58 percent approved of Branstad’s performance as governor, while only 32 percent disapproved and 10 percent were not sure. Today’s Sunday Des Moines Register contains more details on the poll, which also found that 56 percent of respondents think things in Iowa are headed in the right direction, and 54 percent view Branstad favorably. Likely Democratic candidate Jack Hatch had very low name recognition in the poll, and in a head to head contest, respondents favored Branstad over Hatch by 55 percent to 27 percent.

Shrinking media budgets have reduced the frequency of public polling. I wish we knew whether the governor’s approval rating has been at this level for some time, or whether Branstad got a bump out of progress made at the end of the legislative session (Last month Quinnipiac conducted its first statewide poll in Iowa and found Branstad’s approve/disapprove numbers at 49/31.)

Either way, a governor with a good approval rating and a healthy campaign bank account is a strong favorite to win a sixth term if he wants one. Iowans failed to re-elect a governor only once during the last half-century, in the aftermath of the worst recession since World War II. Share any comments about the governor’s race in this thread.

Chief Deputy State Auditor Warren Jenkins will investigate Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz’s use of Help America Vote Act funding, William Petroski reported today for the Des Moines Register. Democratic State Senator Tom Courtney requested the audit immediately after Governor Terry Branstad appointed Mary Mosiman as state auditor last month. Mosiman’s predecessor, David Vaudt, did not act on Courtney’s request for an audit last year. Schultz has used federal HAVA funding to pay for a law enforcement officer charged with investigating alleged voter fraud full-time. Courtney contends that such a use falls outside federal law, which calls for HAVA funds to cover “educating voters concerning voting procedures, voting rights and voting technology.”

Mosiman delegated the audit to Jenkins because until last month, she was working as Schultz’s deputy in charge of the Secretary of State’s elections office.

Please share any relevant comments in this thread. After the jump I’ve posted reaction from Schultz and Democratic candidate for secretary of state Brad Anderson.

The Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission voted yesterday to commission a new study of Iowa’s gambling market to determine how a new casino would affect the 18 existing casinos with state licenses. In March, Linn Couty voters approved a proposed casino for Cedar Rapids, the largest city in Iowa not currently served by a casino. The study will focus on whether there is market share to support a Cedar Rapids casino, or whether that facility would mostly cannibalize business from existing casinos. Racing and Gaming Commission Chair Jeff Lamberti indicated that the study would also examine the impact of new casinos in Greene County and/or the Des Moines area. For more details, read William Petroski’s report for the Des Moines Register and Rick Smith’s story for the Cedar Rapids Gazette.

I have never been convinced that the Racing and Gaming Commission would grant new casino licenses in Iowa. In 2010, commissioners denied licenses for proposed casinos in Fort Dodge, Ottumwa, and Tama County, despite strong local support. On the other hand, the backers of the Cedar Rapids casino project have close ties to Governor Terry Branstad.

Any comments related to gambling in Iowa are welcome in this thread. In related news, the casino owner who bankrolled the “No Casino” campaign in Cedar Rapids is proposing a new casino in the Davenport area.

Conservative talk radio host and Morningside College professor Sam Clovis plans a press conference on June 10, Bret Hayworth reported for the Sioux City Journal yesterday. Clovis has previously said he may run for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. He declined to specify whether he will announce a Senate campaign on Monday, but said he will disclose news “that affects my future” and “is a commitment for something down the road.” These comments seem to indicate that Clovis is leaning toward running:

“I’m a very principled man, a man of great integrity, so that is a skill set that I think is very much there,” he said.

“I’ve been a natural leader my whole life and I think those are, again, skills that are very lacking in Washington. Because we don’t have people who are willing to stand up and tell people the truth and then stick to their principles to make sure that happens. Everything seems to be about self-interest, nothing seems to be about the people of the country.”

Clovis added, “I’ve been an executive, I’ve been in business, non-profit, for-profit, education, military service second to none, a very distinguished career there. So I have all of the credentials that one would need to be a person that one would look to to lead and do the things that are necessary to lead this country, particularly if one pursued public office in the United States Senate.”

I have no idea whether Clovis can raise enough money to run a credible statewide campaign, but having hosted a radio show for the past two years, he probably has better communication skills than any other potential Republican candidate. As a self-described “red-meat conservative,” Clovis would compete aggressively in a primary. Both of the declared GOP Senate candidates have vulnerabilities: Matt Whitaker failed to stake out a clear position on “Obamacare,” and David Young (amazingly) was not familiar with the “fair tax” proposal.  

This week’s featured wildflower usually starts blooming in central Iowa in May and can sometimes be found in June. The small white flowers may resemble other native plants, but the licorice smell that emerges when you rub the leaf or stem is unmistakable. Several photos of Osmorhiza longistylis, commonly known as sweet cicely, anise root, wild licorice, longstyle sweetroot, or sweet anise, are after the jump.

I hope some Bleeding Heartland readers will help identify two colorful flowers I’ve featured below as well. Although I found them on a restored prairie patch, I’m not convinced they are native to Iowa.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

Recently-fired Iowa Senate GOP communications director Kirsten Anderson filed a complaint last week with the Iowa Civil Rights Commission, alleging that Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix and three staffers for the GOP Senate caucus subjected her to a sexually hostile work environment and retaliated against her for complaining about the work environment.

A pdf file of Anderson’s complaint can be viewed here. I’ve posted the two-page narrative section after the jump.

Reading the allegations, two points stood out for me. Anderson told WHO-TV’s Dave Price that legislators as well as GOP staffers made inappropriate comments to and about women on staff. But her complaint to the Iowa Civil Rights Commission does not accuse any Republican lawmakers of making such remarks. The only named respondents are Dix (for failing to provide a safe work environment) and three staffers.

Second, in her narrative about alleged retaliation, Anderson describes meetings in May 2013, during which she was told her work was “not where it needed to be.” Those meetings involved Eric Johansen, a named respondent in the complaint who is Iowa GOP Senate staff director, and Tracie Gibler, an assistant to Dix. Anderson did not accuse Gibler of creating a hostile work environment. Representative Steve King’s office just announced yesterday that Gibler will be King’s new Congressional chief of staff, as of June 10. (I’ve posted that press release below.) I can’t blame Gibler for wanting to get out of Dix’s office–or maybe the timing of her departure is a coincidence, just like named respondent Ed Failor, Jr. and Dix have claimed it was a coincidence that Anderson was fired for cause on the very same day she documented complaints about the work environment.  

Governor Terry Branstad appointed two new members of the Iowa Board of Regents yesterday. Former State Senator Larry McKibben and construction business owner Milt Dakovic will fill vacancies created when the Iowa Senate did not confirm two of the governor’s three Regents appointees this year: Craig Lang and Robert Cramer. Branstad likes to appoint former state lawmakers to boards and commissions. He encouraged McKibben to come out of retirement to run for the Iowa Senate again in 2012, but McKibben lost the GOP primary in Senate district 36. I’ve posted more background on McKibben and Dakovich after the jump. Their appointments are subject to confirmation by the Iowa Senate during the 2014 legislative session.

Lang recently finished six years of service on the Board of Regents and had been board president. Today the remaining board members chose Bruce Rastetter as the new board president. Rastetter has served as president pro-tem since the summer of 2011 and has been in frequent communication with the three state university presidents. The largest donor to Branstad’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign has also been a controversial figure as a Regent, having “blurred the line” between “his role as investor in AgriSol Energy” and his position on the board. (The Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board dismissed an ethics complaint filed against Rastetter over that proposed AgriSol land deal.) Earlier this year, Rastetter asked the University of Iowa president to arrange a meeting between ethanol industry representatives and Professor Jerald Schnoor. Democrat and Linn-Mar school district superintendent Katie Mulholland will replace Rastetter as president pro-tem of the Board of Regents.

UPDATE: Democratic State Senator Jeff Danielson has already announced that he supports Branstad’s new nominees for the Board of Regents. Earlier this year, he voted against confirming Lang and Cramer.

Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson just tweeted a few minutes ago that according to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack’s spokesman Matt Paul, Vilsack “considered it” but won’t run for governor of Iowa next year. No one will be surprised by this news. It’s good for Vilsack to make it official as other Democrats consider challenging Governor Terry Branstad: Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, State Senator Jack Hatch, Senate President Pam Jochum, State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald, State Representative Tyler Olson, and former State Representative Bob Krause.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.