The latest statewide poll by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Terry Branstad in a strong position if he seeks re-election next year. Among 809 Iowa adults surveyed between June 2 and 5, 58 percent approved of Branstad’s performance as governor, while only 32 percent disapproved and 10 percent were not sure. Today’s Sunday Des Moines Register contains more details on the poll, which also found that 56 percent of respondents think things in Iowa are headed in the right direction, and 54 percent view Branstad favorably. Likely Democratic candidate Jack Hatch had very low name recognition in the poll, and in a head to head contest, respondents favored Branstad over Hatch by 55 percent to 27 percent.
Shrinking media budgets have reduced the frequency of public polling. I wish we knew whether the governor’s approval rating has been at this level for some time, or whether Branstad got a bump out of progress made at the end of the legislative session (Last month Quinnipiac conducted its first statewide poll in Iowa and found Branstad’s approve/disapprove numbers at 49/31.)
Either way, a governor with a good approval rating and a healthy campaign bank account is a strong favorite to win a sixth term if he wants one. Iowans failed to re-elect a governor only once during the last half-century, in the aftermath of the worst recession since World War II. Share any comments about the governor’s race in this thread.
14 Comments
Unbeatable
No one thinks less of Terry Branstad as a person or a governor than I do, but he is the greatest politician in Iowa history. No one in the democratic party could beat him….not even Harkin or Braley. Hell, I doubt Clinton could beat him in this state.
The economy didn’t beat Chet. Chet beat Chet.
The IDP strategy should be to find someone who can drive around Iowa for the next 18 months meeting with the editorial boards and getting their names in the paper. It would be better if this person was younger and more energetic. He/She won’t win, but if it makes Branstad pay attention, he can’t be helping out in the other races.
ahmed Sun 9 Jun 11:27 AM
Chet was weakened by the economy
He made mistakes, but his approval was above 50 percent until the second half of 2009. No recession, no state budget problems.
Even with those problems, Chet could have beaten BVP, and no one but Branstad could have beaten Bob Vander Plaats in that 2010 primary. Republicans are lucky they were able to talk Branstad out of retirement at that time.
desmoinesdem Sun 9 Jun 12:36 PM
There was a poll in April 2011
showing Culver narrowly beating Branstad in a do-over.
cocinero Sun 9 Jun 1:38 PM
Chet's a centrist
He purposely goes out of his way to not offend anyone. This draws ire from the base that wants to see “change” desperately.
Chet would have had to change his principles, cater to certain constituencies that no longer have the power that they once had. Even if he had catered to them he still would have lost the election.
moderateiadem Sun 9 Jun 2:45 PM
I consider myself
on the left of the Democratic base, and I think Culver was a better governor than Vilsack.
2010 was a horrible year to be running for re-election as a Democratic governor. Even incredibly skilled politicians like Ted Strickland lost.
desmoinesdem Sun 9 Jun 7:49 PM
that was this PPP poll
showing Branstad with net negative approval and Culver leading Branstad 48-46 in a rematch. It’s really too bad we have so few public polls. Not clear whether that was an outlier. When PPP polled Iowa in October 2011, Branstad led Culver 51-40 in a hypothetical rematch.
desmoinesdem Sun 9 Jun 7:47 PM
The base
You’re more analytical than the base however. They scream FREE SERVICES NOW! PUBLICLY FINANCED ELECTIONS NOW! KILL MONSANTO! So and so on. Regardless of whether their demands are good or not, they act like the Governor should be able to lead with a magic wand.
You follow the process they just get mad at the evil corporations. They don’t want solutions, they just want to scream.
The base wants to repeal right to work. I think they want to turn into the state of Illinois where we can’t even pay our bills to the counties as well.
I don’t want to be like Illinois. If Illinois is a progressive state then I don’t want to be in a progressive state.
moderateiadem Mon 10 Jun 4:13 PM
Brandstad's had a few good months
He hasn’t been outrageously bashing opponents, and Scott Walker, et al, have been flying their GOP freak flag high, so the Brandstache looks pretty sane & competent in comparison. He’s sitting well for 17 months out from the election.
Wait, 17 months? WTF are we even polling this for?
I like Jack Hatch, I like Jack a lot. But this is too goddamn early.
idiosynchronic Sun 9 Jun 2:43 PM
it is too early
The horse race number is not particularly meaningful, especially since more than 80 percent of respondents didn’t know anything about Jack Hatch.
Even at this early stage, I think the approval and favorability numbers for Branstad are significant as a sign of how vulnerable he might be. Sure, things can change in a year, but I don’t think the economy is going to fall through the floor, and people’s views of Branstad have formed over a very long time and are unlikely to change radically.
desmoinesdem Sun 9 Jun 7:45 PM
Any ideas?
So what do the Dems do, assuming Branstad’s health remains status quo? Run a token Jack Hatch campaign and point to 2016? I don’t think tb will serve out a second term. He will resign and give Kim Reynolds a head start for 2016. I didn’t think he would stay this long, but maybe he didn’t figure on this level of popularity and said ‘why not’?
rockm Sun 9 Jun 8:08 PM
I've always expected him
to run for a sixth term. He likes campaigning, and he likes traveling the state being the center of attention in every room.
I don’t see him stepping down early unless he has a catastrophic health problem.
desmoinesdem Sun 9 Jun 9:01 PM
Branstad is a like the rabbits in my back yard
Branstad is like the rabbits in my back yard…no predator so they keep increasing.
Except for a few hard hitting editorials on the ridiculous fight over whether or not the state should participate in the Affordable Care Act, there is no one out there exposing the inadequacies of Terry Branstad as a governor, nor the poor work of his administration. So he continues to look good in polls like this because no one is calling him out.
julie-stauch Mon 10 Jun 12:58 PM
I agree with you, but
I also think that over the decades, Branstad has been very good at distancing himself from failures of his administration. Being personable and knowing how to work a room has paid off for him.
desmoinesdem Mon 10 Jun 4:35 PM
Tyler Olson
Looks like he’s all in. Just resigned as state party chair
rockm Tue 11 Jun 1:53 PM