All year I’ve expected Democrats to lose control of the U.S. Senate, whether or not President Barack Obama was re-elected. Over the past month or so, I’ve been shocked to see Democratic prospects for holding the Senate improve greatly.  

Fewer than 30 days remain until the presidential election. Any comments about the race in Iowa or nationally are welcome in this thread. I’ve compiled recent news, analysis, and advertising after the jump. I will update as needed, especially if any new Iowa poll comes out today. Gallup’s national tracking poll shows Mitt Romney gaining ground since last Wednesday’s presidential debate.

UPDATE: Rasmussen Reports has President Barack Obama leading Romney in Iowa by 49 percent to 47 percent, based on a survey of 500 likely voters conducted on October 7 (margin of error plus or minus 4.5 percent). Rasmussen’s previous Iowa poll had Romney leading 47 percent to 44 percent.

SECOND UPDATE: Added latest national polling data at the end of this post.

I haven’t been an optimist about Christie Vilsack’s chances of taking down Representative Steve King, to put it mildly. But over the past month I have become convinced that King and Washington Republicans are genuinely concerned about holding Iowa’s new fourth Congressional district.

Follow me after the jump for a closer look at King’s campaign strategy, along with polling data and some other news from the IA-04 race. Later this week I will post a similar piece about the Vilsack campaign, and a separate review of outside groups’ advertising in this district.

A report on alleged misconduct by three football coaches on suspension from Lincoln High School in Des Moines put bullying on my mind this weekend. After the jump I’ve posted background on the football coach story and on the statewide bullying prevention summit that Governor Terry Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds will host in late November.

All topics are welcome in this open thread.  

A win-at-all-costs mentality pervades sports culture, with praise heaped on athletes who put the team’s needs first. For instance, Kerri Strug is best known for vaulting on a sprained ankle at the 1996 Summer Olympics. The vault aggravated an injury that ended her gymnastics career, but she is still hailed as a hero for helping the U.S. women’s team win gold.

This week former Iowa State basketball player Royce White, a first-round draft pick for the Houston Rockets, did not show up for training camp. The reason was unprecedented: he is insisting on a plan to address his anxiety and obsessive-compulsive disorder. By making his health a priority, and leveling with the public about his reasons for doing so, White may encourage many other people to seek help for serious mental illnesses.

The full-time voter fraud investigator hired by Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz produced his second batch of arrests yesterday. In contrast to the first group of people charged (alleged non-citizens who had voted), the latest arrests involve two convicted felons who registered to vote this year but have not cast ballots.

The official affidavits don’t include any evidence that these people intended to vote unlawfully. One believed his voting rights had been restored, while the other claimed she wasn’t paying attention to what was on the voter registration form she signed. Details are after the jump.

Thirty-four days before the general election, the number of Iowans who had requested absentee ballots (292,694) already exceeds the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836). At this point, Democrats have requested about twice as many absentee ballots as have Republicans and have returned more than three times as many ballots to county auditors.

Looking at the daily numbers I’ve archived here, you can see that as promised, Republicans have made up ground on early GOTV since the Secretary of State’s Office started releasing absentee ballot totals on September 17.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in each of the four Congressional districts.  

To coincide with today’s annual conference of the Iowa Environmental Council, I’ve compiled some recent news related to Iowa water quality after the jump.

Republican nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama face off in their first debate tonight, beginning at 8 pm central time. I’ve posted a few links related to the presidential race after the jump and will update during and after the debate. I don’t expect any major fireworks or gaffes.

Any comments about the debate or the presidential election in general are are welcome in this thread.

I’ll post a presidential debate discussion thread this evening. Meanwhile, here’s a mid-week open thread: all topics welcome.

Today’s featured wildflower is cutleaf coneflower, which has floppy yellow flowerheads resembling wingstem but very different stems and leaves. Some photos are after the jump, along with a picture of ripe elderberries, a treat for Iowa wildlife in the late summer and early fall.

I thought Mitt Romney made a strategic error in choosing Paul Ryan as a running mate. However, after listening to clips from Ryan’s campaign stops in eastern Iowa Monday and yesterday, I can see why many consider Ryan an asset to the Republican ticket.

The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show larger numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters statewide compared to last month. Democrats and no-party voters gained more registrants than Republicans, possibly because of voter registration drives on college campuses around the state. As of October 1 (pdf), Iowa had 675,171 active no-party voters statewide, 622,176 active Republicans, and 611,284 active Democrats.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. Any comments about the Congressional races are welcome in this thread.

State Senator Tom Courtney has requested state and federal audits of Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz’s decision to use federal Help America Vote Act funds to pay for a full-time criminal investigator focusing on suspected voter fraud.

Having exhausted all possible appeals, the city of Des Moines will have to refund tens of millions of dollars collected through “franchise fees” attached to residents’ utility bills between 2004 and 2009.  

The Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa poll indicates a close contest for Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins, the target of an anti-retention campaign by social conservatives. In an unexpected move, former Iowa House Speaker Chris Rants publicly advocated a yes vote on Wiggins, despite Rants’ opposition to same-sex marriage rights.

In related news, yesterday marked the end of the road for conservative activists trying to challenge Iowa’s 50-year-old system for nominating judges.

Follow me after the jump for details.

Following a month-long summer recess, members of the U.S. House and Senate worked for less than three weeks before adjourning in late September until after the general election. Congress will hold only “pro-forma” sessions for the next month, presumably to prevent President Barack Obama from making recess appointments.

Follow me after the jump for a review of how the Iowans voted (or did not vote) on the most significant legislation that came up during the past few weeks.  

JANUARY 2013 UPDATE: Boswell dropped this lawsuit.

I don’t know whether anyone connected to Representative Leonard Boswell dangled a job in front of Ed Fallon in early 2008. But I’m confident that the defamation lawsuit Boswell filed against Fallon won’t end in a courtroom victory for the man who won the contentious 2008 Democratic primary in Iowa’s third Congressional district.  

This evening, the Des Moines Register releases partial results from its latest Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. I’ll update this post with the details shortly. UPDATE: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 45 percent. More information is after the jump. UPDATE: Added more details from Sunday’s paper.

Speaking of the Des Moines Register, an unbelievable lapse in media ethics was the focus of this week’s Civic Skinny column for Cityview, written by former Register editor Michael Gartner (from the pre-Gannett era). Long story short: the newspaper published an op-ed piece about the allegedly unfair treatment of a first-time juvenile offender, without disclosing that the 17-year-old in question is the son of Des Moines Register editorial writer Andie Dominick.

All topics are welcome in this open thread.

A push-polling campaign with live telephone interviewers is underway in Iowa House district 43, where two-term Republican State Representative Chris Hagenow faces Democrat Susan Judkins. Following my own advice, I took detailed notes on last night’s call.

UPDATE: I am hearing reports of similar push-polls against John Forbes, Democratic candidate in House district 40, and John Phoenix, Democratic candidate in House district 38. If you have received these calls or push-polls targeting other Democratic House candidates, please let me know: desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com. If you get one of these calls, take notes if possible, and don’t be afraid to ask the caller to repeat the question.

SECOND UPDATE: Mark Blumenthal explained the difference between a real opinion survey and a push-poll on his Mystery Pollster blog. Whereas a real poll is designed to collect data from respondents and measure opinions, a push-poll is all about spreading negative information about a political opponent to as many people as possible, under the deceptive guise of conducting a survey.

The non-profit organizations 1000 Friends of Iowa and Iowa Rivers Revival are accepting nominations for this year’s Best Development Awards and Iowa River Town of the Year. More details are after the jump.