Now that Representative Bruce Braley has survived a Republican landslide despite a bucketload of money thrown at him, I thought I’d check to see how others in his House Populist Caucus fared on Tuesday.

Short story: the Populist Caucus lost five members. As a group, they fared better than the Blue Dogs or New Democrats, but not as well as the Progressive Caucus. The details are below.

Judicial nominating commissions will soon begin evaluating possible replacements for Iowa Supreme Court Justices Marsha Ternus, Michael Streit and David Baker. The law gives the commissions 60 days to submit a short list of candidates for judgeships to the governor, which means soon to be former Governor Chet Culver could nominate justices before Governor-elect Terry Branstad is sworn in. Branstad said yesterday that he should appoint the new members of the high court:

“I think it would be inappropriate to have a governor that was just rejected by the voters try to rush through appointments to a court when the court was just rejected as well. I think we need to really sit down and think this thing through in a really careful way,” Branstad says. “But really my focus is on jobs. That’s why the people of Iowa elected me as governor and that’s where I’m going to put my focus in the days ahead.”

Culver has not promised to let Branstad appoint the new justices. A November 3 statement from the governor’s office said only this:

“I am reviewing the matter carefully to ensure the judicial selection process that is utilized now is consistent with the Iowa Constitution, with Iowa law, and with past practices used in the course of both Democratic and Republican administrations in instances when multiple vacancies in our appellate courts have been created simultaneously.”

Meanwhile, Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn says it would be “unconscionable” for Culver “to thumb your finger in the eyes of the voters who just repudiated those Supreme Court Justices and, quite frankly, repudiated you and the one party, Democrat rule in Des Moines.” Strawn also called for “a further discussion too on how we change the way judges are nominated and selected in this state as well, because I think that too is part of the problem.” Getting rid of Iowa’s judicial nominating commissions would require a constitutional amendment, but a new law could make minor changes. For instance, Branstad has endorsed efforts to require partisan balance on the judicial nominating commissions.

The Supreme Court has already heard some oral arguments in this year’s caseload. It’s not clear whether the four remaining justices will issue rulings on those cases or rehear the oral arguments once replacements for Ternus, Streit and Baker have been selected.

The November 4 edition of the Des Moines Register published a map showing the judicial retention vote by Iowa county. There was a strong urban/rural split in the voting. In seven counties, more than 70 percent of votes cast on retention said no to all three judges. In 48 counties, the no votes on retention totaled between 60 and 70 percent. In 34 counties, the no votes totaled between 50 and 60 percent. In Clinton County, Streit and Ternus received a majority of votes for retention, but the yes votes for Baker fell below 50 percent. All three judges received a majority of yes votes in the remaining nine counties: Winneshiek (Decorah area), Black Hawk (Waterloo/Cedar Falls), Story (Ames), Polk (Des Moines), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Johnson (Iowa City), Muscatine, Scott (Quad Cities), and Jefferson (Fairfield area). I will update this post with a link to the map if I find it on the Register’s website.

UPDATE: Thanks to Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 for posting the map in the comments below. I’ve posted it after the jump as well.

Advocates celebrated passage of a constitutional amendment creating a Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund for Iowa, but there’s no guarantee new money will ever be allocated to protecting soil and water. Governor-elect Terry Branstad and incoming Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen said yesterday a sales tax increase is off the table:

“This election was to a large extent driven by growth in government,’ said Paulsen, a Republican from Hiawatha. “Too much spending. Too much debt. The public did not elect Republicans so we could come down and raise taxes.”

“I don’t see House Republicans passing a sales tax increase for the forseeable future,” Paulsen said. “I don’t even think that will be under consideration.”

Said Branstad, of Boone: “I don’t support any tax increases. I made that clear during the election,” Branstad said. ” If it’s contingent on a sales tax increase, we’ve said there won’t be a sales tax increase. I’m supportive of conservation funding, but not raising taxes.”

Sean McMahon of Iowa’s Water & Land Legacy, the coalition that pushed for the new fund, on Tuesday said his organization is considering its next move. It may leave it up to individual Iowans and various environmental and recreation groups to push for the tax.  The group spent several years pushing the issue to a vote, and some of the preparation went back a decade.

Asking environmental groups and the “hook and bullet” crowd (Izaak Walton League, Pheasants Forever, Ducks Unlimited) to push for a sales tax increase would be a disastrous waste of time. The votes won’t be there in the legislature, and Branstad won’t want to break his promise on tax hikes as quickly as he did in 1983. Anyway, people like me didn’t get involved with the environmental movement to advocate for regressive taxes.

Groups that worked to pass this amendment should focus on lobbying for direct appropriations to the new fund. Voters approved the amendment by a wide margin. Making waterways safer for recreation and improving habitat for wildlife can be viewed as economic development tools for small towns and rural areas. Finding private donors who agree to match all or part of the state’s contribution to the fund might persuade legislators to get the conservation efforts going on a small scale. Successes would build a constituency for increasing the funding in future years.

That strategy may not work, but it’s better than pinning all hopes on a sales tax hike that won’t happen. Bleeding Heartland readers, please share your thoughts or suggestions for getting money allocated to the natural resources fund.

Michael Mauro was a good Secretary of State. He was always interested in our elections. He failed to win his own re-election.

Before Mauro our Secretary was Chet Culver. Culver used his time to become well-known around the state, saying “get out and vote” at every opportunity. The publicity this created was for him as much as for the elections he advertised. Who could be against voting? He used his name recognition to run for Governor.

But Culver left a mess in the elections department. He failed to stop dozens of counties from adopting paperless touchscreen voting machines, ignoring experts who warned against them. Some counties had two entirely different systems in each polling place–a touchscreen plus a paper system as well.

Having been a county auditor himself in Iowa's largest county, Mauro came to the state job with experience and credibility. He dumped the touchscreens soon after his 2006 election. He later created a system for sending ballots overseas that was named best in the USA. He was so respected by Iowa's county auditors that many of them took the unusual step of endorsing his re-election.

Four years in a low profile job is not enough to gain name recognition. Yesterday Iowa's conservative voters kept all the incumbents they recognized except one (Governor Culver). They also passed over the guy they didn't recognize (Mike Mauro). I'm sure they meant no ill will. Thank you, Michael Mauro.

cross posted from IowaVoters.org 

Time for a new thread on the statewide election results. I haven’t dug into the county-level returns in the governor’s race yet, but Chet Culver didn’t even carry Polk County, which he won with a 21,000 vote margin in 2006. Culver did carry Johnson County, but by a much smaller margin than in 2006. What happened in your area, Bleeding Heartland readers?

UPDATE: Culver carried only eight counties: Black Hawk (Waterloo/Cedar Falls area), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Johnson (Iowa City), Dubuque, Des Moines (Burlington area), Lee (Ft. Madison/Keokuk), Story (Ames), and Jefferson (Fairfield). Culver almost carried Floyd County, where Republicans easily won House district 14. I guess Charles City loves I-JOBS! LATE UPDATE: The unofficial results indicate that Culver did carry Floyd County (barely), by fewer than 100 votes.

Branstad carried Wapello County (Ottumwa) for the first time. In his 1994 landslide victory, Bonnie Campbell carried only four counties: Story, Johnson, Des Moines and Wapello.

The down-ticket Democrats had a lot of ground to make up with Chuck Grassley winning the U.S. Senate race 64 percent to 33 percent and Terry Branstad winning 53 percent to 43 percent. Secretary of State Michael Mauro outperformed Culver, which he wasn’t able to do in 2006, but still fell short against Matt Schultz. It’s a shame to see such a competent public official lose in a wave election. Iowa will continue to benefit from his work to make voting more accessible and secure, with paper ballots. I expect the new legislature to act on Schultz’s top priority, photo ID requirements, and I wonder if they will also revoke same-day voter registration.

Iowa Republicans didn’t miss many targets, but I think they overlooked an opportunity by not investing in the state treasurer’s race. Michael Fitzgerald won his eighth term by an unusually narrow (for him) margin: just under 53 percent to 47 percent. A few hundred thousand dollars thrown toward Dave Jamison’s campaign could have won that race. Jamison didn’t have the resources to improve his name identification or make his case against Fitzgerald. Last year some conservative blogger, it may have been Krusty, said Christian Fong should have challenged Fitzgerald instead of running for governor as a 32-year-old. With his background in finance, his connections to major Republican fundraisers, and his roots in both eastern and western Iowa, Fong might have outperformed Jamison.

Tom Miller winning more than 55 percent of the vote was such a relief. The Republicans threw everything they had at him, and he ran a non-existent campaign until the final month, but he still defeated Brenna Findley convincingly. Miller even carried Woodbury County, where Republicans romped. Now he can get back to work on state attorneys’ coordinated investigation of foreclosure practices:

Mr. Miller’s status as a point man in the multistate investigation has been seen by many observers as a sign that the states will push for a sweeping settlement requiring lenders to implement mortgage modifications allowing homeowners to stay in their houses.

Mr. Miller, who has monitored mortgage-industry practices for years, had already begun discussions with some lenders, including Bank of America. In one meeting last week at Mr. Miller’s office, he and officials from other states told Bank of America executives and outside lawyers that state attorneys general would like additional aid to be offered to borrowers, such as further principal reductions on certain delinquent loans where people owe much more than what their homes are worth, according to people familiar with the meeting.

Doubt Findley would have been interested in seeking concessions from corporations to people underwater on their mortgages.

Environmentalists lost a few supporters in the Iowa Senate last night, but today many advocates are cheering the passage of the Iowa Water and Land Legacy trust fund amendment. I wouldn’t count on that fund being filled anytime soon, and I don’t support a regressive sales tax increase. However, it’s good to know that if Branstad follows through on plans to shift from income taxes to consumption taxes, he won’t be able to avoid allocating more money to soil and water conservation. The big margin of victory for this amendment (62.7 percent yes, 37.3 percent no) was also a blow to the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation’s prestige. Farm Bureau never opposed this amendment the two times state legislators passed it nearly unanimously, and a Farm Bureau representative was on the group that helped shape the amendment wording. For some reason, Farm Bureau decided late in the game to made a play to stop this amendment. In doing so, they disappointed some sympathetic legislators and enraged conservatives who backed a constitutional convention. The Farm Bureau’s messaging urged a no vote on the constitutional convention question as well as the soil and water trust fund.

Please share your thoughts about any of last night’s election results in your town, county or beyond. Iowa City voters upheld the 21-only bar ordinance, by the way.

Feel free to comment on races from outside Iowa that caught your eye. A few U.S. Senate seats haven’t been called, but the chamber seems likely to have 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. Republicans will pick up between 60 and 70 House seats, meaning they will hold 240 to 250 seats in the new chamber (218 are needed for a majority). Republicans are on track to hold about 30 governorships, although several states have yet to be decided. Republicans swept Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, assuring that they can replicate their successful gerrymanders of those states. Florida approved ballot measures that were designed to limit gerrymandering, but opponents may challenge those rules in court. Florida will still have a Republican governor and legislature, but if the ballot measures stand Democrats may make gains at the state level and in Congressional districts.

Democrats did better in some states (Connecticut, California, West Virginia) than in most others, but a common thread was Republican gains among independents, working-class whites and suburban voters. For instance, Joe Sestak fell just short in the Pennsylvania Senate race, losing to Pat Toomey 51 percent to 49 percent. He did as well in Philadelphia as Bob Casey did four years ago, but couldn’t match Casey’s performance in other parts of the state.

The Republican campaign for president will start winding up any day now, so get ready for more Iowa visitors. On that note, one person who has been touted as a presidential prospect, Mike Pence, may be laying the groundwork to run for governor of Indiana instead.

Democrats suffered big losses in the Iowa House and Senate last night. Assuming no results change through recounts, the House is likely to switch from 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans to 59 Republicans and 41 Democrats. I’ve seen some online references to a 58-42 split, but that’s not how the count looks based on unofficial results posted on the Secretary of State’s website.

Democrats maintain control of the Iowa Senate, but their majority shrank from 32-18 to 27-23. Governor-elect Terry Branstad should easily be able to get his agenda through the Iowa House, and Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal may have trouble keeping his caucus united.

UPDATE: Late returns could change the outcome in two Senate seats; it’s possible the chamber could have a 25-25 split, or a 26-24 Democratic majority.

SECOND UPDATE: A few more races could switch as more absentee ballots come in. As of Wednesday evening, Democrat Tom Schueller is now trailing in House district 25 by about 150 votes.

Here’s my take on the seats that changed hands and the near-misses.

The retention election results for Iowa Supreme Court justices were a particularly low point on a generally dismal night. Never before had Iowans failed to retain a Supreme Court justice. Thanks to one unpopular ruling, unofficial results show Chief Justice Marsha Ternus received 45.0 percent yes votes and 55.0 percent no votes. Justice David Baker received 45.75 percent yes and 54.25 percent no. Justice Michael Streit received 45.6 percent yes and 54.4 percent no. Ternus spent 17 years on the high court, four of them as chief justice. Streit served for nine years and Baker just two.

It was bad luck that so many justices came up for retention in the first year following the Varnum v Brien ruling. The Des Moines Register reported that only Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins is up for retention in 2012, and the other three current justices won’t face the voters until 2016. The last group includes Justice Mark Cady, who wrote the decision striking down Iowa’s Defense of Marriage Act.

All lower-court Iowa judges appear to have been retained, including three who were targeted by some social conservatives. In Polk County, fifth circuit District Court Judge Robert Hanson received 66.34 percent yes votes, and District Court Judge Scott Rosenberg received 68.84 percent yes votes. Robocalls paid for by a conservative group urged Polk County residents to reject both judges. Hanson issued the lower-court ruling in Varnum v Brien in August 2007. Rosenberg signed a waiver allowing two men to marry after Hanson’s decision was announced, before an appeal put a stay on that decision.

In Sioux City, third circuit District Court Judge Jeffrey Neary received 58.5 percent yes votes. Conservatives tried and failed to oust him in 2004 and again this year, because in 2003 he granted a divorce to a lesbian couple who had a civil union from Vermont. At the time, Neary didn’t realize both parties seeking that divorce were women.

The judicial retention vote doesn’t affect same-sex couples’ marriage rights in Iowa. Voters rejected an initiative to call a constitutional convention, so the only way to overturn marriage equality would be to pass a constitutional amendment through the normal path. The new Republican majority in the Iowa House will approve a constitutional amendment restricting marriage to one man and one woman. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal may or may not be able to keep that amendment from passing the Iowa Senate. If the legislature approves a marriage amendment in 2011 or 2012, a separately elected Iowa House and Senate would have to approve it again in 2013 or 2014 before it could appear on the 2014 general election ballot. At that point, the amendment would require a simple majority of yes votes statewide to be added to the Iowa Constitution.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Polls close at 9 pm in Iowa, but I thought I’d post this thread early for people who can’t wait to start talking.

Maybe some poll workers in Council Bluffs think Matt Schultz is already secretary of state. According to Matt Campbell’s Congressional campaign, some voters in Pottawattamie County were (wrongly) told they had to show photo ID in order to vote today.

In Pella, some Central College students were turned away from the polls. Disgraceful.

After the jump I’ve posted some statehouse races to watch.

UPDATE: Immediately after polls closed at 9 pm, MSNBC called the U.S. Senate race for Chuck Grassley.

9:17 pm KCCI says that with 7 percent reporting, Justices Streit and Baker at 55 percent yes on retention, Ternus at 54 percent. No idea which part of the state has reported.

9:26 pm Looks like urban counties reporting first, which is bad for justices and bad for Chet Culver. He’s virtually tied with Branstad with about 8 percent of the vote in. Fox has already called IA-Gov for Branstad; KCCI not doing so yet.

10:03 pm AP called IA-03 for Boswell. So far Miller, Mauro, Fitzgerald lead statewide races.

Comic relief: when my son heard the guy on tv say Leonard Boswell, he piped up, “Too wrong for too long” (catch phrase from a Brad Zaun tv ad).

Chuck Grassley couldn’t wait until Roxanne Conlin was done giving her concession speech–he stepped up so tv cut away from Conlin.

Geri Huser may lose HD 42 (east side of Des Moines and Polk County) unless absentees haven’t been counted yet. If result holds, that’s a district we should be able to win back in 2012 with a better Democrat.

10:18 pm Whoa–Associated Press apparently expects Iowa Republicans to pick up 6 seats in the Iowa Senate. That would reduce the Democratic majority to 26-24. Not a good result going into redistricting.

Kent Sorenson defeated Staci Appel in SD 37, and HD 74 (which makes up half of that Senate district) is too close to call. I saw Dennis Black was trailing in SD 21.

10:22 pm It looks like Iowa City voters defeated the effort to overturn the 21-only bar ordinance. If the result holds, that means 19- and 20-year-olds will not be allowed in bars after 10 pm.

10:27 pm All the Supreme Court justices are losing now that smaller county results are coming in, and Branstad leads Culver 52-44 with about 42% counted. In Polk County, Judge Robert Hanson has been retained; his 2007 ruling in Varnum v Brien struck down the Defense of Marriage Act. That case was appealed to the Iowa Supreme Court.

10:30 pm All three Democratic Polk County supervisors were re-elected, which means Dave Funk fell short in his effort to unseat Tom Hockensmith.

It appears that Branstad narrowly carried Polk County, which would make it almost impossible for Culver to be re-elected.

Geri Huser lost House district 42 by about 140 votes. A write-in candidate took 432 votes in that race. All the other Polk County incumbents in the Iowa House and Senate were re-elected, and Ruth Ann Gaines easily held the open HD 65, where Wayne Ford retired.

10:35 pm The Associated Press called all five U.S. House races for incumbents: Democrats Bruce Braley, Dave Loebsack and Leonard Boswell and Republicans Tom Latham and Steve King.

10:38 pm Looking bad for Secretary of State Mike Mauro–he’s now virtually tied with Matt Schultz. Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald still lead their Republican opponents. Republican Auditor David Vaudt and Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey have big leads.

10:43 pm Associated Press says Republicans on track to win 55 Iowa House seats. Dem incumbent McKinley Bailey losing to Stew Iverson in HD 9. Donovoan Olson trails Chip Baltimore narrowly in HD 48. Mark Smith barely ahead of Jane Jech in HD 43. Nathan Reichert appears to have lost HD 80 to Mark Lofgren. In the open HD 74, Democrat Scott Ourth narrowly trails Glen Massie.

Associate Press now saying Iowa Senate could end up in a 25-25 split. That would be a 7-seat GOP gain and much worse than Iowa Democrats were expecting. There would be basically no counterweight to Governor Branstad. Rich Olive is losing SD 5 to Rob Bacon. Bill Heckroth lost to Bill Dix in SD 9. Becky Schmitz narrowly trails Sandy Greiner in SD 45. Keith Kreiman barely ahead in SD 47.

LATE UPDATE: I fell asleep and missed Culver’s concession speech and the rest of the election night coverage. Unofficial results are at the Secretary of State’s website. Highlights:

Federal races: Grassley finished at 64.4 percent, not far below his usual 66 percent to 70 percent re-election total. Conlin was at 33.2 percent, around the same share of the vote previous challengers have received when they spent almost no money and barely campaigned.

I’m surprised they called Braley’s race so early, because unofficial results show he didn’t win by much at all: 49.5 percent to 47.5 percent. I predict he will focus a lot more on fundraising these next couple of years. Loebsack won 51.0 percent to 45.9 percent. Boswell won by a very similar margin: 50.6 percent to 46.6 percent. So Miller-Meeks did almost as well as Zaun despite running in a district that leans 7 point more Democratic. Latham and King slightly improved on their 2008 margins of victory: Latham 65.7 percent, Maske 31.9 percent and King 65.8 percent, Campbell 32.2 percent.

Statewide results: Many polls this year have shown Branstad around 52 or 53 percent, and he finished right at 52.8 percent to 43.1 percent for Culver.

I feel terrible for Mike Mauro–he has done such an outstanding job, but he lost to Matt Schultz 49.7 percent to 47.0 percent. He outperformed Culver (unlike in 2006, when he underperformed Culver), but with only one term in office, he just didn’t have the name recognition to survive a 10-point win by Branstad. Alternatively, some people think a German name like Schultz is better for seeking statewide office in Iowa than an Italian name.

Treasurer Fitzgerald and Attorney General Miller hung on, just like they did in the 1994 landslide. Fitzgerald only won 52.85 percent to 47.0 percent, which suggests to me that Republicans could have taken him out if Dave Jamison had had more money to spend on the race.

Republicans moved heaven and earth for Brenna Findley, but she only got 44.4 percent of the vote compared to 55.6 percent for Miller. Will Findley go back to working for Steve King, or will Branstad give her a post in his administration?

Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey won 62.8 percent to 37.1 percent for Francis Thicke. I wish Thicke had run in 2006–the strong Democratic wave might have pulled him over the line. In retrospect, maybe the money that went into Roxanne Conlin’s campaign would have been better spent on Thicke. With an extensive television advertising campaign, he might have been able to beat Northey or at least raise Iowans’ awareness about many issues.

Auditor David Vaudt took 56.5 percent of the vote to 43.4 percent for Jon Murphy. Considering how little money Murphy had to spend on his campaign, he did quite well. Now that Iowa has a Republican governor, I think we won’t hear any more gloom and doom talk on the budget from Vaudt.

The Iowa Water and Land Legacy trust fund constitutional amendment passed easily: 62.7 percent to 37.2 percent. I don’t support a sales tax hike now, but at least if Branstad tries to move us in that direction he won’t be able to avoid giving more funds to protecting natural resources. I would like to see state legislators appropriate money directly to this trust fund.

Iowans voted down the constitutional amendment on calling a constitutional convention: 67.1 percent no, 32.8 percent yes. It’s a good thing so many Republicans were afraid to push for this one.

Sadly, the Supreme Court justices were all voted out of office. Ternus received 45.0 percent yes votes, Baker 45.75 percent and Streit 45.6 percent. It looks like all the lower-court judges were retained.

Iowa Senate races: Democrats lost five seats and only held on to two others by extremely narrow margins. That works out to 27 Democrats and 23 Republicans in the new Senate. I’ll have more details on that in a separate post. It’s really too bad Steve Warnstadt retired in district 1 (Sioux City).

Iowa House races: A few districts were decided by extremely small margins. Assuming recounts don’t change anything, Democrats lost 16 seats and Republicans lost only one (Democrat Muhlbauer took HD 51, Rod Roberts’ old seat). That would produce a Republican majority of 59 to 41, and a huge mountain to climb for Democrats in 2012, when redistricting will scramble things up. More details on those results in another thread.

A quick note on national results: it looks like Republicans will gain between 60 and 65 House seats and six to eight Senate seats, leaving a small Democratic majority intact. Republicans would probably have taken the Senate if the tea party movement hadn’t helped such weak candidates win primaries in Delaware and Nevada.

In a few hours we’ll know whether seven-term Representative Leonard Boswell foiled Iowa Republicans again. For months the third Congressional district was considered a tossup race, and Republican Brad Zaun led in two GOP internal polls released this summer. However, Boswell has led the most recent polls. The Hill commissioned a survey in mid-October that found Boswell beating Zaun 49 percent to 37 percent. According to Tim Sahd’s final rankings for the National Journal, IA-03 isn’t among 90 House seats most likely to change hands.

If Boswell survives a Republican wave election, it will be good news for Iowa Democrats, but not for people who hate negative political advertising. Beginning in August, Boswell and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee simply buried Zaun. Bleeding Heartland discussed early commercials for this race here and here. Details on the closing arguments from both sides are after the jump.

For your “no one could have predicted” file: going into today’s election, Mariannette Miller-Meeks is the Iowa Republican U.S. House challenger considered to have the best chance of winning. When she announced plans to run in the second Congressional district again last year, I thought she was way too conservative to have a shot against two-term incumbent Dave Loebsack. IA-02 has a partisan lean of D+7, and Miller-Meeks received less than 40 percent of the vote in 2008. For months the district was considered safely Democratic, while Iowa’s third Congressional district was rated a tossup.

Loebsack is still favored to win a third term, according to most election forecasters. The early vote numbers look strong for Democrats in his district. That said, Miller-Meeks has a realistic chance to become the first woman elected to Congress from Iowa, especially if Democratic House losses are on the high end of forecasts (60 to 80 seats).

Follow me after the jump for more on how Miller-Meeks and Loebsack have appealed to voters since the last time Bleeding Heartland discussed this race in detail.

Greeting workers at Davenport’s Oscar Mayer plant at 5 am today, Representative Bruce Braley said, “This is where you get a feel for what politics should be.” No doubt retail campaigning is more fun than being on the receiving end of about $1.6 million in spending by the American Future Fund and U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Most handicappers have Braley favored to win re-election; if he loses tonight, the conservative groups that put this race on the map will get much of the credit.

After the jump I review the campaigns waged by Republican challenger Ben Lange, Braley and the groups targeting each candidate in Iowa’s first Congressional district.

For most of this year, Governor Chet Culver wasn’t campaigning as actively as Republican Terry Branstad, but the governor has been making up for lost time. Since his third debate with Branstad on October 21, Culver has headlined dozens of campaign events around the state. The governor performed well in that debate and has sharpened his stump speech. Everywhere he goes, he says he feels the momentum that will win him another term.

While Iowa Democrats insist the polling trendlines favor Culver, Branstad has led in every poll released since he entered the Iowa governor’s race. His campaign has played it safe the last few weeks and appears to have avoided any “game-changing” mistakes.

A review of recent Branstad and Culver campaign messages is after the jump.

Lots of Democrats have had a tough year, but few candidates faced a more difficult task than Matt Campbell. He’s challenging Representative Steve King, who won his previous four elections in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district with 62 percent, 63 percent, 59 percent, and 60 percent of the vote. Campbell isn’t just running for Congress in a Republican year, he’s running in Iowa’s most conservative U.S. House district (partisan voting index R+8). IA-05 also happens to be Iowa’s largest Congressional district (32 counties) and the most expensive district for advertising. Campbell’s opportunities for raising his name recognition were limited, because King maintained his perfect record of never debating an opponent. All four other U.S. House incumbents debated their challengers at least once.

King was so relaxed about his re-election campaign that he spent most of last week touring other parts of Iowa with the anti-retention Judge Bus.

Follow me after the jump for video clips, transcripts and some comments about King and Campbell outreach to voters in IA-05.

It’s been a while since my last post on the secretary of state race. Republican Matt Schultz is still running the radio commercial I described here, at least in the Des Moines market. I noticed today that his campaign posted a 30-second television commercial on YouTube on October 21. Schultz is a Council Bluffs City Council member, and the script of this ad sounds like it’s running only in the Omaha/Council Bluffs viewing area.

The video and transcript are below.

Eight-term Representative Tom Latham survived two Democratic wave elections easily, winning the fourth Congressional district by 17 points in 2006 (when Governor Chet Culver carried his district) and 22 points in 2008 (when President Barack Obama did). As a result, Latham never looked vulnerable heading into 2010, and he hasn’t run as active a campaign as he did two years ago. Democrat Bill Maske wasn’t able to raise as much money as Latham’s previous opponents, Selden Spencer and Becky Greenwald, and he has received no help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. However, he has campaigned hard around this 28-county district for the last ten months.

I summarized each candidate’s campaign message below.  

Iowans will elect county supervisors and vote on many local ballot initiatives across the state tomorrow, so I thought I’d put up a thread for Bleeding Heartland readers to discus any local races of interest. Iowa City’s vote on the 21-only bar ordinance will be the most closely-watched city election result. If the “yes” side prevails, the city’s ordinance barring 19- and 20-year-olds from bars after 10 pm will be thrown out. If “no” wins, the ordinance will stand. Strong early voting among University of Iowa students suggests that the ordinance will be tossed out. If I lived in Iowa City, I’d vote no. To my mind, this is a public safety issue, and the drop in downtown crime since the ordinance went into effect is compelling. I see no reason to make Iowa City a drinking destination for underage people in a large area of eastern Iowa. People who view this as a rights issue should be agitating to lower the drinking age.

In Polk County, the most contested local race is in the third supervisor’s district, where former Republican Congressional candidate Dave Funk is challenging two-term incumbent Tom Hockensmith (more background here). Funk is running on a small-government, lower-taxes agenda. He also claims Polk County isn’t spending enough on public safety. I have heard that Funk is advertising on the radio, but I haven’t caught any of those commercials, so I don’t know the script. Hockensmith has been up on Des Moines television stations with a 30-second ad for the last week or two. A transcript of the Hockensmith commercial is after the jump.

Funk has some ground to make up tomorrow. According to Polk County Auditor Jamie Fitzgerald, as of November 1 his office had received 4,588 absentee ballots from registered Democrats in the third supervisor’s district, 2,595 from Republicans, 1,157 from no-party voters and 5 from voters with some other registration. In 2006, Hockensmith defeated Republican Wes Enos by 16,936 votes to 11,121.

Any comments on local Iowa elections are welcome in this thread.

Iowans are set to cast at least a third of this year’s general election votes early, and the partisan breakdown of ballots cast so far looks encouraging for incumbent Representatives Bruce Braley (IA-01), Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03). The Iowa Secretary of State’s Office has been updating statewide absentee ballot totals daily and absentee ballot numbers by county every Friday. I tallied the numbers for the counties in the first, second and third Congressional districts based on October 29 numbers (pdf file). Details are below.

UPDATE: Tim Sahd of the National Journal ranked the 90 House seats most likely to change hands as of October 28. Loebsack’s district is number 75 on his list, Braley’s is 86 and Boswell’s isn’t even on the list. In other words, Sahd expects none of the Iowa incumbents to lose unless tomorrow brings an unprecedented catastrophic Democratic defeat.  

If the Des Moines Register’s new Iowa poll is accurate, Senator Chuck Grassley will cruise to re-election by a similar margin to his last four victories. However, Roxanne Conlin hasn’t thrown in the towel. She spent the final weekend campaigning around the state with Governor Chet Culver and other Democrats. Her schedule is packed for Monday too. Grassley hasn’t held many public events in the past week, but you can hardly turn on a television in Iowa without seeing one of his commercials.

As usual, most Iowa newspapers have endorsed Grassley for re-election, including the Des Moines Register, Cedar Rapids Gazette, Mason City Globe-Gazette, Sioux City Journal, Dubuque Telegraph-Herald and Quad-City Times. Rare exceptions include the Iowa City Press-Citizen (“Conlin can become the senator that Grassley should be by now”) and the Burlington Hawk-Eye (“Roxanne Conlin has not earned this endorsement so much as Grassley has turned his back on it”).

Bleeding Heartland discussed the Senate candidates’ only debate here. It looked like a tie to me, which is as good as a win for the candidate who’s ahead. Closing tv ads and campaign themes for Grassley and Conlin are after the jump.

Television commercials on the Iowa attorney general race remain in heavy rotation statewide, and over the weekend both parties raised questions about how that advertising was funded. Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn demanded an investigation yesterday into loans received by Attorney General Tom Miller’s campaign. The Iowa Democratic Party highlighted heavy spending in support of Republican Brenna Findley by outside groups, some of which don’t disclose their donors.

Follow me after the jump for more details.