Here it is:

Schedule for Election Day, November 4th

Greenwald Votes in Dawson, IA

10:00 AM

Dawson Fire Station/Community Building

108 S. 1st

Dawson, IA

Greenwald Visits Waukee GOTV Office

12:00 PM

Becky Greenwald for Congress Office/Obama Campaign for Change Office

144 E. Laurel St

Waukee, IA

Greenwald Visits Iowa State to Get Out the Vote

2:00 PM

Iowa State Memorial Union

2229 Lincoln Way

Ames, Iowa 50011

Election Night Victory Party with Story County Democrats

5:30 PM – Doors open to the press

Legends Restaurant

119 Stanton Ave

Ames, IA 50014

Thanks to all the volunteers helping to get out the vote in the fourth district!

UPDATE: Noneed4thneed has video from Greenwald’s event in Marshalltown last night:

http://commoniowan.blogspot.co…

Which candidates and interest groups did you hear from on the eve of the election?

On Monday afternoon at 1:40 pm I got a robocall urging me to “get the facts” before voting. The “facts” are that Jerry Sullivan (Democratic candidate in House district 59) supported the Project Destiny proposal that Polk County voters resoundingly rejected in a July 2007 referendum.

I think the robocall erroneously claimed that Project Destiny would have raised my property taxes, when in fact it would have reduced property taxes while increasing the local sales tax.

The robocall went on to say that Sullivan is financially backed by groups wanting to pass some kind of legislation I couldn’t hear, because my son was making a lot of noise in the background. It may have had something to do with unions or collective bargaining, because when I called Sullivan’s campaign manager to tell him about the call, he said Republicans were lit-dropping a piece yesterday saying Jerry Sullivan will force you to join a union.

The robocall concluded by saying that the fact is we can’t afford Jerry Sullivan, and that the call was “proudly paid for by Iowans for Tax Relief PAC, working to protect family budgets.” I stayed on the line with my pen in hand, waiting to write down the phone number, but the robocall did not give a phone number. I thought that was required by law. The robocall did not mention Chris Hagenow, the Republican candidate in House district 59.

Sullivan’s campaign had volunteers out in the most Republican part of the district yesterday (the wealthy Clive 4 precinct). They were dropping positive campaign literature, along with a piece about the nine mayors in the Des Moines metro area who have endorsed Sullivan, including Clive Mayor Les Aasheim.

I’m happy to report that the GOTV machine in Iowa is engaged on behalf of Democrats at all levels. I’ve received several robocalls from Democrats in recent days like Governor Chet Culver and Senator Tom Harkin, inviting me to GOTV rallies.

Also, on Sunday I received a robocall from the Iowa Democratic Party, authorized by the Obama campaign for change, that mentioned voting for the “Democratic ticket” (not just Obama) twice. At the end it asked me to hold before giving me the name and address of my polling place. The same day, a volunteer left a door-hanger at our house, reminding us of the date of the election, the hours polls will be open, the phone number for Obama’s toll-free early-voting hotline, our precinct number, the name and address of our polling location, and all the names on “your Democratic ticket” (in our case Obama, Harkin, Congressman Leonard Boswell, Jerry Sullivan, plus three Democrats seeking Polk County offices).

Who has contacted you lately about the election, and what did they say?

Republican operatives have no shame when it comes to voter suppression tactics.

Iowa Independent reported today that Republican attorneys challenged the validity of 50 absentee ballots filed by Grinnell College students.

Did they have reason to believe the voters in question were not really students enrolled at Grinnell? No.

Did they have reason to believe the voters in question were trying to cast ballots in more than one location? No.

Did they have reason to believe the voters in question were not entitled to vote for some other reason? No.

Poweshiek County Auditor Diana Dawley said the ballots were challenged on the grounds that the students do not reside at the address they listed when they registered to vote.

The students registered to vote at 1115 8th Ave., which is the address on campus where they receive mail. However, it is not the physical address of their dormitories, Dawley said, which brought on the challenges.

The Grinnell College Campus Democrats claimed in an online posting that students who voted early at satellite voting stations were told by Poweshiek County elections officials to register in that way because the inability of students to receive mail at their physical address made it difficult to produce proof of residency.

This challenge is pathetic. Of course these students will list the address where they receive mail, rather than an address the post office wouldn’t recognize.

Republicans should be ashamed of such a scheme to deprive citizens of their right to vote. What a great introduction to politics for college students who are voting in their first presidential election.

I remember how excited I was to fill out my absentee ballot in the 1988, the first year I was old enough to vote for president. It is despicable for Republican attorneys to challenge voters on such flimsy grounds.

I’ve got news for the Republicans: the House district 75 race between Democratic incumbent Eric Palmer and former state representative Danny Carroll isn’t going to be close enough for them to steal.

Make a statement against voter suppression by sending a few bucks to Eric Palmer’s campaign.

UPDATE: This Daily Kos diary has more details on the situation in Grinnell. Also, it mentions that apparently Republicans in Virginia have challenged ballots cast by college students who listed their dorm address rather than the address at which they receive mail on campus. It figures that they are just trying to find any excuse to throw out students’ votes.

Later this afternoon vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin will headline a Republican rally in Dubuque (why I don’t know).

If you’re watching on television or following the coverage online, post your thoughts and comments here. I will update this post later as well.

I’m curious to see whether state senator and first district Congressional candidate Dave Hartsuch will get to speak today, or at least be acknowledged from the stage. As John Deeth reported, Hartsuch was entirely left out of John McCain’s recent rally in Davenport.

Iowa may be a lost cause for the Republican ticket, but I predict Palin will draw a larger crowd in Dubuque than the approximately 1,100 people who came to hear John McCain in Tampa, Florida this morning. The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank called that “a disastrous showing for an election-eve event in this big, Republican town.”

After the election it will be entertaining to watch the pro-Palin and anti-Palin camps in the Republican Party blame each other for the loss.

UPDATE: I forgot to update this post yesterday. Chuck Grassley went a bit far in defending Palin’s qualifications while warming up the crowd:

“You know from watching television and the debates that no one is more qualified to vice president of the United States,” [Grassley] said. “All you got to think about is the governors that have gone to Washington to be the chief executive. There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind about her qualifications.”

She’s halfway through her first term and already has been found to have abused her authority, but I guess to a Republican that makes her highly qualified to be president.

The Des Moines Register reported that more than 5,000 people came to see Palin in Dubuque. Some of them are already looking forward to her return to Iowa as a presidential candidate someday.

If this poll of Republicans is accurate, Palin trails Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in the race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

Getting back to the current election, Palin declined to say whether she voted for convicted felon and Republican incumbent Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate election today:

I am also exercising my right to privacy and I don’t have to tell anybody who I vote for. Nobody does, and that’s really cool about America also.

Rob Hubler may be campaigning in a town near you today or tomorrow. Come out to see him if you can:

MONDAY, November 3, 2008

9:15 a.m. LAMONI – meet supporters and activists                              

128 S. Linden, Lamoni

10:15 a.m. OSCEOLA – encourage and thank volunteers                      

Intersection of Highways 34 and 69 (former service station)

11:30 a.m. CRESTON – thank and encourage volunteers                      

209 N. Maple St. Creston

1:15 p.m. RED OAK – thank and encourage volunteers                    

909 Senate Ave., Red Oak

3:00 p.m. COUNCIL BLUFFS                            

Campaign Office, 708 Creek Top, Council Bluffs          

7:00 p.m. GLENWOOD – Glenwood Optimist Club                              

104 S. Walnut St., Glenwood  

TUESDAY, November 4, 2008

9:30 a.m. SIOUX CITY – thank and encourage volunteers                  

Sanford Center, 1700 Geneva St., Sioux City

10:15 a.m. SIOUX CITY – thank and encourage volunteers                    

CWA Hall, 1325 Lewis Blvd., Sioux City

11:00 a.m. SIOUX CITY – make phone calls with volunteers                  

Campaign Office, 506 Nebraska, Sioux City

3:00 p.m. COUNCIL BLUFFS – make calls with volunteers          

Campaign Office, 708 Creek Top, Council Bluffs    

9:00 p.m. COUNCIL BLUFFS – ELECTION NIGHT PARTY                      

Amerisports Bar, 2200 River Rd., Council Bluffs   (in Ameristar Casino)

It’s not too late to volunteer to make phone calls or knock on doors tomorrow. If you can help, call Hubler’s campaign headquarters at 712-352-2077, or call one of the other field offices in the fifth district (the addresses and phone numbers are here).

Swing State Project has posted a useful map and chart showing poll closing times and key races across the country.

Also, Swing State Project has maintained an incredible independent expenditure tracking chart so you can see how much various interest groups have been spending on the Congressional races, and in which districts. I noticed that EMILY’s List has not been spending in many of the districts where they endorsed a candidate.

Fivethirtyeight.com runs 10,000 presidential election scenarios every day. On Sunday, they came up with 624 McCain victories out of 10,000. Nate Silver shows you the most likely McCain victory maps in “What a McCain Win Looks Like.”

Daily Kos is running its first election prediction contest, and you have until 3 am central time on Tuesday to enter. It’s better than Bleeding Heartland’s contest in that they ask fewer questions and are giving the winner a brand new 2.0GHz Apple MacBook.

On the other hand, you have to have been a registered Daily Kos user for a least a week to participate, and your chances of winning are a lot better here. They will probably have thousands of entries at Daily Kos, and you have to guess the national popular vote percentages within a tenth of a point.

What websites are you reading, and where will you be watching the election returns come in?

In addition to the many other Democratic campaign events going on around the state today, fourth district Congressional candidate Becky Greenwald will hold four get out the vote rallies:

Schedule for Monday, November 3  

10:00 AM – Charles City

Campaign for Change Office

216 N. Main St., Charles City, IA

12:00 PM – Mason City

Campaign for Change Office/Cerro Gordo County Democratic HQ

517 1st St. NW, Mason City, IA

3:00 PM – Boone

Boone Airport

424 Snedden Dr., Boone, IA  

8:30 PM – Perry

Hotel Pattee

1112 Willis Ave, Perry, Iowa

If you live in or near the fourth district, are you seeing or hearing ads supporting Greenwald? I loved her final television commercial but haven’t heard whether it’s been running over the weekend. I saw it before Obama’s infomercial a few days ago.

Representative Steve King has so little to show for his six years in Congress that he used his first television commercial to take credit for a Highway 20 widening project, even though the funding for that project came from the state (not a federal appropriation).

Apparently King just can’t let go of this fairy tale:

FOR RELEASE:                                                                            

Sunday, November 2, 2008

STATEMENT BY CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE ROB HUBLER

Rep. Steve King continues to mislead voters about state funding for Highway 20 project

       During an interview with KMEG-TV yesterday, Rep. Steve King continued to mislead his constituents about the funding of the forthcoming improvements to Highway 20.  While he acknowledged the appropriation of state funds–which King had nothing to do with, contradicting the claims he is making in his radio and television ads-King still can’t admit that the state had to step in pay for the project rather than wait for King to obtain the federal funding needed to widen the highway.

       For six years, King failed to do his job in Congress to obtain four-lane federal construction funding for his top priority – improving Highway 20.  As State Senator Steve Warnstadt has stated, the Iowa legislature worked in a bipartisan manner to provide state funding for critical projects like four-laning Highway 20.  

       When the state announced that it was stepping forward with funding three weeks before the election, King shamelessly tried to take credit for the project when he clearly had nothing to do with the granting of state funds.

       Steve King is right about one thing.  He told KMEG that people should be offended when a politician “intentionally and willfully misinforms the public for their political gain.”   He should talk to the mirror about that.  He has misinformed the public to get re-elected, by claiming credit for the $48 million in funding that was recently announced by the Iowa Department of Transportation.

       That is separate and unrelated to any federal funds that may have gone toward the highway in the distant past, and not part of some “pool,” as he now claims.  And if such a pool did exist, King has done nothing to contribute to it.  

       If I’m elected to Congress, I will follow the example Rep. Leonard Boswell has set with the widening of Highway 34 in southern Iowa, obtaining funding for at least 10 miles every year.  Had Steve King done that, we would have had at least 60 miles completed for Highway 20.

ATTACHED DOCUMENTS:

Iowa DOT Press Release:                  

http://www.news.iowadot.gov/ne…

Steve King Quote:            

http://www.kmeg.com/global/sto…  

If you can afford to do so, please make one last donation to Hubler’s campaign. He’s up on television now with three ads you can view here (scroll down past the text of the Des Moines Register’s endorsement).

UPDATE: Got this e-mail last night from Hubler:

Dear [desmoinesdem],

Have you seen the ads? Heard the radio spots? Or seen the thousands of barn signs, bumper stickers and yard signs out? Travelling the district this week I have been amazed at all the green and white I see popping up amongst the changing leaves of fall.

The seasons are changing and so is the 5th district.

Everywhere I go there are signs that things are moving here on the ground and the whispers in D.C. have turned into rumbles as they talk about the campaign that is going to kick out Steve King.  Check out this blog posted today:

http://downwithtyranny.blogspo…

The latest polling shows we’re coming up behind him but this is still a tight race. We can win. And we will win. But we still need your help.

In less than 48 hours the polls will close but before that happens we need your help to get out the vote. Call your local office, email John (our field director), or call us at our headquarters 712-352-2077. But I am asking you to do everything you can between now and 9 PM on Tuesday; to get people to go out and vote in all the great democrats we have on the ticket this year from top to bottom.

Talk to people in the line of your local grocer, bug your neighbors, your relatives, and your friends and make sure they do their part.

After the polls close, come on over and watch the results roll in with me.

Ameristar

2200 River Road

Council Bluffs, IA 51501

Or contact your local county party to find a results party closer to you.

Peace and Justice,

Rob

This morning I decided to go see Mitt Romney speak at the Cedar Rapids Victory Headquarters here in Iowa.

Mitt talked about economy– nothing special happened…

THEN I SAW THE MOST DISGUSTING THING I HAVE EVER SEEN IN AN OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS.

**UPDATE** Notice the Crescent in the NOPE image below.  It's the symbol of Islam, and this sticker attempts to continue the smear that Barack is a closet Muslim.

I'm starting to calm down, but this is not just some normal slander we see behind the scenes.  It's prominently displayed in this campaign office.

**UPDATE x2** I'm not a Muslim– but I know plenty of Muslims– and i know that there is nothing wrong with being proud of your faith– but I'm offended that Republicans would try and denigrate not only a religion, but a tolerant man (who happens to be a Christian) who is attempting to raise us beyond these issues that are only highlighted to tear us apart.

The Des Moines-based American Future Fund is exploiting loopholes in rules governing political advocacy groups in order to run campaign advertising in targeted races without disclosing its donors.

The Des Moines Register provided the latest evidence in this article from Saturday’s edition: “National group airs ads on Iowa House.”

For background on the American Future Fund, a 510(c)4 organization “formed to provide Americans with a conservative and free market viewpoint,” you can read this piece by Iowa Independent’s Jason Hancock, this TPM Cafe story by Mrs. Panstreppon, or Paul Kiel’s report for TPM Muckraker.

The American Future Fund is associated with heavy-hitters in the field of campaign advertising. Its media consultant is Larry McCarthy (creator of the 1988 Willie Horton ad), and its legal consultant is Ben Ginsberg (who was involved with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in 2004).

Representatives for the American Future Fund deny that the group seeks to influence elections. For that reason, they are not subject to campaign disclosure rules governing political action committees and other groups that make independent expenditures during election campaigns.

However, the American Future Fund’s radio and television commercials this year have focused on candidates running in competitive Senate races, such as Republican incumbent Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Democratic candidate Mark Udall of Colorado, and Democratic candidate Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire. You can view many of those ads at the AFF’s You Tube channel. Note that while these commercials ostensibly are focused on generating phone calls in support of a particular issue position, they haven’t been aired in states without a contested Senate seat.

Now the AFF is weighing in on key Iowa legislative races. From yesterday’s story in the Des Moines Register:

On Wednesday [October 29], AFF launched television ads in Iowa that criticize Democratic Reps. McKinley Bailey of Webster City, Paul Shomshor of Council Bluffs, Elesha Gayman of Davenport and Art Staed of Cedar Rapids. All four are incumbents struggling to hold onto their seats in the face of strong Republican challengers.

Other ads that compliment Republican Reps. Doug Struyk of Council Bluffs, Jamie Van Fossen of Davenport and Dan Rasmussen of Independence. Struyk is a Republican leader whose opponent has spent little; the other two are dealing with strong Democratic challengers.

AFF’s spokesman explained the timing of the political messages by saying it took months to compile analysis on the legislative session, which ended in April.

What an amazing coincidence. Analysis about legislative action completed more than six months ago resulted in television ads that appeared six days before a general election.

In another amazing coincidence, the AFF’s ads happen to focus on candidates running in six battleground districts being targeted by both parties. Dozens of legislators who voted the same way on those issues, but represent uncompetitive districts, are not subject to AFF’s advertising blitz.

I could only find two of the American Future Fund Iowa’s tv ads on You Tube. One praised the Republican incumbent in Iowa House district 81, Jamie Van Fossen, and the other criticized the Democratic incumbent in House district 9, McKinley Bailey.

It’s worth noting that while urging viewers to call legislators, these ads give the phone number for the switchboard at the State Capitol. However, the switchboard is currently closed, because the legislature is not in session. The AFF spokesman explained that the law requires advertisements to use official phone numbers, but he is evading the issue.

These commercials cannot be intended to generate citizen communication with legislators if they are giving a phone number that no one is currently answering.

Clearly the AFF selected the subjects and timing of their advertising in order to influence the outcome of legislative elections in Iowa. (The Republican Party of Iowa is concentrating its resources on making gains in the Iowa House, where Democrats have only a 53-47 majority.)

The tv ads direct viewers to the web site of the AFF’s Iowa chapter: www.iowa.americanfuturefund.com.

AFF spokesman Tim Albrecht

told The Des Moines Register last month that AFF is a group that focuses solely on national issues. “At that time we were, but after a lot of analysis and reviewing what had occurred in the last legislative session, we decided to open an Iowa chapter,” he said.

It is AFF’s first state-based chapter in the country, said Albrecht, who is a former spokesman for Iowa Republican legislative leader Christopher Rants and AFF’s only paid staff member.

Earlier this year, the Iowa Future Fund was incorporated by the same people behind the American Future Fund, and the Iowa Future Fund ran television ads criticizing Democratic Governor Chet Culver. (Here is one of the Iowa Future Fund’s ads against Culver.) In March, the Iowa Democratic Party called for an investigation into the Iowa Future Fund’s advertising campaign and failure to disclose donors. In April, a press release announced the creation of the Iowa Progress Project to replace the Iowa Future Fund. In theory, the the Iowa Progress Project was going to focus on state issues, while the American Future Fund focused on national issues.

It is unclear why the American Future Fund decided to create an Iowa chapter, rather than have the Iowa Progress Project pay for television commercials about Iowa House incumbents. If anyone has any information regarding the Iowa Progress Project or the decision to create an AFF Iowa chapter, please post a comment or send me a confidential e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com).

Can anything be done to force the AFF to disclose who is paying for these commercials? Charlie Smithson, executive director of the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board, told the Des Moines Register that his office had received a complaint about the ads, but that campaign disclosure laws do not apply because the AFF ads do not urge viewers to vote for a candidate.

Mr. desmoinesdem has extensively researched election law and tells me that one relevant case in this area is Federal Election Commission v. Wisconsin Right to Life. Wisconsin Right to Life was running ads urging people to contact their senators about judicial filibusters. Senator Russ Feingold was up for re-election, and the ads did not urge people to vote against him, but the FEC considered them “sham issue ads” that were intended to influence an election and therefore were subject to regulation by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (McCain-Feingold).

The Supreme Court had previously upheld McCain-Feingold’s provisions on political advocacy ads (in the McConnell vs. FEC case), so the key question was whether Wisconsin Right to Life’s ads were the kind of political advocacy Congress can regulate. With Chief Justice John Roberts writing for the majority, the court

held that McConnell v. FEC did not establish the test that any ad intended to influence an election and having that effect is express advocacy. Such a test would be open-ended and burdensome, would lead to bizarre results, and would “unquestionably chill a substantial amount of political speech.” Instead, the Court adopted the test that “an ad is the functional equivalent of express advocacy only if the ad is susceptible of no reasonable interpretation other than as an appeal to vote for or against a specific candidate.” The Court further held that the compelling state interests invoked by the government to regulate advocacy did not apply with equal force to genuine issue ads. Neither the interest in preventing corruption nor the goal of limiting the distorting effects of corporate wealth was sufficient to override the right of a corporation to speak through ads on public issues. This conclusion, the Court held, was necessary in order to “give the benefit of the doubt to speech, not censorship.” The dissent by Justice Souter called WRTL’s ads indistinguishable from political advocacy ads and accused the majority of implicitly overruling McConnell v. FEC.

I agree with Souter’s position that so-called issue ads targeting candidates in key races shortly before elections are really political advocacy ads subject to McCain-Feingold. If the American Future Fund were mainly trying to influence Iowans’ views on issues, they wouldn’t be running their commercials only in battleground districts. Also, the timing of the ads only makes sense in the context of this Tuesday’s election. As I mentioned above, no one is currently answering the phone number AFF asks viewers to call.

But Smithson has to look at the AFF’s Iowa advertising from a narrow legal perspective. Clearly the ads are promoting favorable opinions about some Republican incumbents and unfavorable opinions about some Democratic incumbents. But as long as the ads urge people to call a telephone number (even a non-working one), courts would probably not hold that the commercials have “no reasonable interpretation other than as an appeal to vote for or against a specific candidate.”

I am not an expert on election law or disclosure requirements for 501(c)4 organizations. Perhaps there is some way Congress could require more financial disclosure of 501(c)4s so that they would not be able to run campaign ads with no accountability.

I don’t know the solution, but I do know that we can help Democrats fight back against the American Future Fund’s ad campaign by giving to the Iowa House Democrats’ Truman fund or to the following individual candidates:

McKinley Bailey (incumbent in House district 9)

Art Staed (incumbent in House district 37)

Elesha Gayman (incumbent in House district 84)

Paul Shomshor (incumbent in House district 100)

Phyllis Thede (challenger in House district 81)

Gene Ficken (challenger in House district 23)

Another day, another poll showing Barack Obama above 50 percent in Iowa and with a double-digit lead over John McCain.

In fact, Selzer and Associates’ final poll this season for the Des Moines Register shows Obama with his largest lead of the year. He’s ahead 54 percent to 37 percent for McCain, with only 6 percent now undecided. Click the link for the details, which are gruesome for the GOP.

I ask again why Sarah Palin is coming to Dubuque on Monday.  

Rick Davis, campaign manager for John McCain, gives you the Bizarro World view in this official memo:

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn’t have the votes to win.

Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, Nate Silver goes over many scenarios that would take Obama to 270 electoral votes. Spoiler alert: none of those scenarios involve North Dakota, Georgia or Arizona.

I wrote back in September that the winds are changing on the issue of hog confinements after the DNR denied permits to 2 confinements in Dallas County.

Last week, the DNR denied a permit to a hog confinement in Davis County.

From Iowa CCI…

On October 24th, the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) denied a 4,960-head hog factory proposal in NW Davis County near Drakesville because, according to the DNR, the permit applications did not meet the minimum legal requirements in the Iowa code. One of the main reasons the DNR denied this proposed hog factory was that it would have been built within the minimum separation distance of 1,875 feet from a neighbor’s residence.

In September, as a result of nearly unanimous public opposition, the Davis County Board of Supervisors recommended that DNR deny this hog factory proposal. The supervisors also challenged the applicant’s master matrix score, the scoring system that large factory farms must pass in order to be allowed to build…

Members of Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement (CCI) and other local residents opposed the proposed hog factory for a number of reasons. They challenged the permit application based on the potential for water pollution to nearby wells and water sources and the likelihood of the underground manure storage pit developing cracks and leaking into underground water sources. In addition, several nearby neighbors raised serious health concerns, concerns for loss of property value, decreased quality of life and the damage the factory farm truck traffic would do to the rural roads.

The Board of Supervisors in both Dallas and Davis counties voted against the hog confinements before the permits were sent to the DNR. Unfortunately, the current laws prevent local Board of Supervisors from having any authority on large hog confinements locating in their counties.

Local control would have worked in both cases, yet the current only adds another layer of bureaucracy and limits the voices of local residents.

I’ll be making phone calls for Jerry Sullivan (Democratic candidate in House district 59) this weekend.

What are you doing to close the sale for Democrats on Tuesday?

Please post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com) if I’ve left out any important events.

Saturday, November 1

The Tallgrass Bioneers conference continues in Grinnell.

For more information, please visit:

http://www.gotoplanb.net/bione…

(a link to google map and driving directions is at the top of the page)

To pre-register, visit:

http://gotoplanb.net/bioneersc…

Complete schedule:

http://www.gotoplanb.net/bione…

Leading Iowa Democrats are kicking off a three-day bus tour and caravan around the state:

IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S “COUNT ON US” BUS TOUR FEATURING SENATOR HARKIN AND GOVERNOR CULVER

AMES – 8:45 AM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, former Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, 4th District Congressional Candidate Becky Greenwald, Secretary of State Michael Mauro, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Iowa State University

Memorial  Union – Cardinal Room

2229 Lincoln Way

Ames ,  Iowa

CARROLL – 11:00 AM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, 5th District Congressional Candidate Rob Hubler, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Moose Lodge

200 East 5th St

Carroll ,  Iowa

STORM LAKE – 1:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, 5th District Congressional Candidate Rob Hubler, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

805 Flindt Drive, Suite 2

Storm Lake ,  Iowa

FORT DODGE – 3:15 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, 4th District Congressional Candidate Becky Greenwald, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Fort Dodge Public Library

424 Central Avenue

Fort Dodge ,  Iowa

ALGONA – 5:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, 4th District Congressional Candidate Becky Greenwald, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Berte’s Back Nine

216 E. State Street

Algona ,  Iowa

MASON CITY – 7:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, 4th District Congressional Candidate Becky Greenwald, Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Chicago Dawg Restaurant

687 South Taft Avenue

Mason City ,  Iowa

IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S “COUNT ON US” CARAVAN

BOONE – 8:30 AM

Lt. Governor Patty Judge

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

1327 S Marshall St

Boone ,  Iowa

INDEPENDENCE – 10:15 AM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

204 1st Street East

Independence ,  Iowa

TAMA – 10:45 AM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

128 West 3rd Street

Tama ,  Iowa

DENISON – 11:00 AM

Lt. Governor Patty Judge and 5th Congressional District Candidate Rob Hubler

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

128 S. Linden St

Denison ,  Iowa

NEWTON – 12:30 PM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

207 1st Avenue West

Newton ,  Iowa

DECORAH – 1:00 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

421 West Water Street

Decorah, Iowa

KNOXVILLE – 2:15 PM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

206 East Robinson Street

Knoxville ,  Iowa

WAVERLY – 3:45 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

100 2nd Street, Southwest

Waverly, Iowa

LAMONI – 5:00 PM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

128 South Linden Street

Lamoni, Iowa

CHARLES CITY – 5:15 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

216 North Main Street

Charles City ,  Iowa

Sunday, November 2

It’s the last day of the Tallgrass Bioneers conference in Grinnell and the second day of Iowa Democrats’ bus tour and caravan:

WATERLOO – 11:45 AM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Bruce Braley, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Jameson’s Irish Pub

310 East 4th Street

Waterloo ,  Iowa

DUBUQUE – 2:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Bruce Braley, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Labor Temple

1610  Garfield

Dubuque ,  Iowa

CLINTON – 4:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Bruce Braley, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Clinton Community College Auditorium

1000 Lincoln Boulevard

Clinton ,  Iowa

DAVENPORT/BETTENDORF – 5:30 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Congressman Bruce Braley, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

United Steelworkers Local 105

880 Devils Glenn Road

Bettendorf ,  Iowa

CEDAR RAPIDS – 7:45 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Dave Loebsack, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Machinist Local  831

222 Prospect Place

Cedar Rapids ,  Iowa

IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S “COUNT ON US” CARAVAN

INDIANOLA – 11:15 AM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, and Secretary of State Michael Mauro

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

602 North Jefferson Way

Indianola, Iowa

SPENCER – 11:45 AM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th Congressional District Candidate Rob Hubler

600 Grand Avenue, 1st Floor (formerly Marcos Restaurant)

Spencer ,  Iowa

WAUKEE – 12:45 PM

Governor Tom Vilsack and Christie Vilsack, Secretary of State Michael Mauro, and 4th Congressional District Candidate Becky Greenwald

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

144 East Laurel Street

Waukee, Iowa

WINTERSET – 2:00 PM

Secretary of State Michael Mauro and 4th Congressional District Candidate Becky Greenwald

Obama  Iowa Campaign for Change office

104 North 1st Avenue

Winterset ,  Iowa

LE MARS – 2:00 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th Congressional District Candidate Rob Hubler

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

27 Central Avenue, Northwest

Le Mars, Iowa

SIOUX CITY – 3:30 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th Congressional District Candidate Rob Hubler

Mary Treglia Community House

900 Jennings Street

Sioux City ,  Iowa

MAQUOKETA – 5:30 PM

Lt. Governor Patty Judge

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

124 West Platt Street

Maquoketa ,  Iowa

COUNCIL BLUFFS – 5:45 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th District Congressional Candidate Rob Hubler

McGinn Law Firm

25 Main Place, Suite 500

Council Bluffs ,  Iowa

CRESTON – 8:30 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and 5th District Congressional Candidate Rob Hubler

Iowa Obama Campaign for Change office

209 North Maple Street

Creston ,  Iowa

Monday, November 3

Did you remember to enter the Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest? You can’t win if you don’t play!

It’s the last day for early voting at your county auditor’s office.

It’s the final day of the Iowa Democrats’ bus tour and caravan:

IOWA CITY – 10:00 AM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Dave Loebsack, Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Vito’s

118 East College Street

Iowa City ,  Iowa

BURLINGTON – 12:15 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Congressman Dave Loebsack, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

Port of  Burlington

400  North Front Street

Burlington ,  Iowa

OTTUMWA – 2:30 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Dave Loebsack, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

UFCW Hall

1305 East Mary Street

Ottumwa ,  Iowa

MARSHALLTOWN – 5:15 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, 4th Congressional District Candidate Becky Greenwald, Congressman Dave Loebsack, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

UAW Hall

411 Iowa Avenue, West

Marshalltown ,  Iowa

DES MOINES – 9:00 PM

Senator Tom Harkin and Ruth Harkin, Governor Chet Culver, Lt. Governor Patty Judge, Congressman Leonard Boswell, Attorney General Tom Miller, Secretary of State Michael Mauro, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson, and IDP Chairman Scott Brennan

UAW Hall

411 Iowa Avenue, West

Marshalltown ,  Iowa

IOWA DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S “COUNT ON US” CARAVAN

TIPTON – 11:30 AM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

500 Cedar Street

Tipton, Iowa

MUSCATINE – 1:15 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Parks and Recreation Building

312 Iowa Avenue

Muscatine, Iowa

FORT MADISON – 3:30 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

819 Avenue G

Fort Madison, Iowa

FAIRFIELD – 5:30 PM

Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, and former Lt. Governor Sally Pederson

Obama Iowa Campaign for Change office

108 West Palm Road

Fairfield ,  Iowa

If you’re in the Cedar Rapids area and are interested in global warming:

 CLIMATE  CHANGE IN  IOWA TOPIC OF NOV. 3  FORUM:

“The global climate is changing. We know that humans are responsible for a large portion of that change, which will have implications for Iowa.”

That is the central theme of a public forum set for Kirkwood Community College Monday, Nov. 3 at 7 p.m. Kirkwood and several other colleges and community groups will host a “Connections” program in Ballantyne Auditorium on the main Kirkwood campus.

The free forum will feature Dr. Jerald Schnoor of The University of Iowa, speaking on “Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change in Iowa.”  Schnoor is the Allen S. Henry Chair and professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and co-director of the Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research.

Tuesday, November 4

It’s not too late to contact your local Democratic field office or county party to volunteer for a shift on election day. There are many jobs to be done–you don’t have to work the phones or knock on doors.

Bumped. Don’t forget to enter by Tuesday morning at 6 am!

I am still trying to decide whether to go with my optimistic or pessimistic scenario and will post my final prediction on Monday night.

There are no tangible prizes here–only bragging rights for the winners.

Enter if you dare. Try to come up with guesses for all the questions. Before you complain that these questions are tough, look at the Swing State Project prediction contest.

Your vote percentage guesses do not have to add up to 100 percent if you believe that minor-party candidates or write-ins will pick up a few percent of the vote.

1. What percentage of the national popular vote with Barack Obama and John McCain receive?

2. How many electoral votes will Obama and McCain win? (538 total)

3. What percentage of the vote will Obama and McCain win in Iowa?

4. What percentage of the vote will Bruce Braley and Dave Hartsuch receive in the 1st district?

5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in the 2nd district?

6. What percentage of the vote will Leonard Boswell and Kim Schmett receive in the 3rd district?

7. What percentage of the vote will Tom Latham and Becky Greenwald receive in the 4th district?

8. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Rob Hubler receive in the 5th district?

9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa House after the election (currently 53-47 Dem)?

10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa Senate after the election (currently 30-20 Dem)?

11. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

12. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

13. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?

14. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?

The deadline for entering this contest is 6 am on November 4.

Please don’t e-mail me your predictions. Post a comment if you want to enter the contest. If you’re a lurker, this is an ideal time to register for a Bleeding Heartland account so that you can post comments.

UPDATE: Here are my predictions. I went with my optimistic scenario nationally but my more pessimistic scenario for Iowa, having been emotionally scarred by too many disappointing election nights.

1. National popular vote, rounded to the nearest point: Obama 54 percent, McCain 45 percent

2. Electoral college: Obama 353, McCain 185 (Obama wins all Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, NV, OH, FL, VA and NC)

3. In Iowa, Obama will win 56 percent, McCain 43 percent

4. Braley 62, Hartsuch 38

5. Loebsack 57, Miller-Meeks 40 (I have no doubt that she will overperform McCain in this D+7 district, but it won’t be enough. She should run for the statehouse someday.)

6. Boswell 55, Schmett 45

7. Heartbreaker in the fourth: Latham 51, Greenwald 49. I expect too many independents to split their tickets. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Greenwald win this race on Obama’s coat-tails. I just don’t see that as the most likely outcome.

8. Again, I wouldn’t rule out a surprise victory for Hubler if a lot of Republicans stay home tomorrow, but my prediction is (sadly) going to be King 54, Hubler 46.

9. The Iowa House will have 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans.

10. The Iowa Senate will have 33 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

11. IA-04 will be the closest Congressional race.

12. My gut feeling is that as in 2004, an Iowa House or Senate district not being targeted by either party will turn out to be closer than any of the targeted races. However, I have no idea how to select that kind of district, so I’m going to guess that the House district 81 race between Phyllis Thede and Jamie Van Fossen will be the closest.

13. The closest U.S. Senate race will be in Georgia.

14. North Carolina will be the state decided by the smallest margin in the presidential race (this was tough for me, because I also think Georgia and Missouri will be very close).

SECOND UPDATE: I forgot to predict that Obama will carry 61 of Iowa’s 99 counties.

Also, do great minds think alike? I find very little to disagree with in John Deeth’s prediction post. Meanwhile, Chris Bowers’ final election forecasts for the electoral vote and U.S. Senate are identical to mine. I predicted a slightly bigger net gain for Democrats in the U.S. House than Bowers did, though.

Mr. desmoinesdem is among the thousands of people in downtown Des Moines this morning, trying to see Barack Obama in person.

Post any thoughts you have about this rally or any memories you have of seeing Obama live in Iowa.

Also, let us know why you think Obama is visiting Iowa again so close to election day.

Is he sincerely worried about losing the state to John McCain? (I doubt it.)

Is he mainly trying to help down-ticket Democrats? (I think so–this will create some great visuals and free media coverage for Rob Hubler, Becky Greenwald and others.)

Does he like the symbolism of coming back to the state that gave him his first big boost toward the presidency? (Probably a little of that too.)

Did he want to schedule an event close to Illinois today so that he can get home to go trick-or-treating with his daughters? (Someone at MyDD suggested that.)

UPDATE: Congratulations to these dedicated volunteers!

Des Moines, Iowa – Today, the Obama Iowa Campaign for Change announced the winners of the “Iowa Call Challenge.”  The winners will have the opportunity to meet Senator Barack Obama during his trip to Des Moines today.

The call challenge winners completed the most calls to undecided voters between Saturday, September 13th and Saturday, September 20th using our Neighbor to Neighbor online call tool, http://my.barackobama.com/n2n.  Together, they called thousands of Iowans to talk about Barack Obama’s plans to change our country so middle class families have a voice in Washington.

“We want to thank all our volunteers for their hard work over the past months and in the coming days,” said Obama Iowa State Director Jackie Norris.  “As Senator Obama points out, change does not come from Washington, change comes to Washington.  Our Call Challenge winners exemplify the power of each of us to reach out and grow our movement for change.  Now more than ever we need the help of every Iowan who wants to turn the page on the failed policies of George Bush.  Working together we can help put Barack Obama in the White House and turn Iowa blue.”

The winners of the call challenge are:

Gail Dietrich; Victor, Iowa

Kevin Healy; Ames, Iowa

Dennis Lee; Sergeant Bluff, Iowa

Sheryl McNew; Indianola, Iowa

Tim O’Neill; Hedrick, Iowa

SECOND UPDATE: Leonard Boswell led the recitation of the pledge of allegiance. Tom Harkin, Becky Greenwald, Chet Culver and Jackie Norris spoke before Obama. I am trying to find out why Rob Hubler was not there and apparently was not mentioned from the podium.

Obama arrived and started speaking on time, which is amazing. My husband said he sounded very fresh, not at all like he was reading from a script.

The Des Moines Register has the text of Obama’s speech here, and I have also put the full text after the jump. The Register’s article about the rally is here. Excerpt:

“I had confidence in the people of Iowa because I knew that the American people are a decent people and a generous people, willing to work hard and sacrifice for future generations,” Obama said to a downtown crowd estimated by Des Moines police at roughly 25,000.

“No where was that truer than here in Iowa. On the day of the Iowa caucus, my faith in the American people was vindicated and what you started here in Iowa has swept the nation,” Obama, who won the leadoff caucuses on Jan. 3, said at the rally in the Western Gateway Park. “We’re seeing the same turnout, we’re seeing the same people going and getting in line, volunteers, people participating, a whole new way of doing democracy started right here in Iowa, and it’s all across the country now.”

Folks, some of you may not know about the Iowa House Democratic Caucus blog at http://www.iowahouse.org.  If so, then you know about it now.

We're going to be trying something new on Tuesday night – liveblogging House results.  We don't have a “fancy” Chuck Todd or FiveThirtyEight.com map, but we do have a nice chart and will be posting results as we get them called in from local auditor's offices by our staff on the ground.

It should be an exciting night and please head over to http://iowahouse.org/2008-results/ to see results on Tuesday.  The page won't be live until Tuesday, but you will be able to comment and discuss results right there on the page!

The Des Moines Register reported that Sarah Palin will headline a rally in Dubuque on Monday (click the link for details about the event, including how to get tickets).

Why would John McCain’s campaign send her to Iowa the day before the election? He’s trailing badly in all the recent polls, and Iowa Democrats have a big advantage in early voting.

Also, why would she go to Dubuque, which isn’t in a competitive Congressional district and isn’t close to most of the competitive Iowa House and Senate districts?

I posted a diary about this at MyDD last night, and several theories were suggested in the comments:

1. She is laying the groundwork for her 2012 presidential campaign. I don’t buy this, because I don’t think she is in control of her travel schedule. Presumably senior strategists in the McCain campaign are making those calls.

2. They are still making a play for Iowa’s seven electoral votes. I doubt they really think they have a chance here, but maybe they are that deluded. Anyway, there are a lot of anti-abortion Democrats in the Dubuque area, and maybe they think Palin will play well with them.

3. She will try to reduce Obama’s margin of victory in Iowa by going to the eastern part of the state, where he is especially strong.

4. She is trying to fire up Republican supporters for down-ticket candidates or ballot initiatives. If that were the case, I don’t see why Dubuque would be the venue. Anyway, we don’t have any controversial referendum at stake next Tuesday (just the initiative to remove “idiot” and “insane person” from the Iowa Constitution).

5. Palin is hurting McCain in the swing states, so they are trying to minimize the damage by sending her to states he’s already lost. That makes some sense to me.

6. High-ranking McCain advisers who are close to Mitt Romney are trying to damage Palin’s reputation by sending her to states McCain will lose big. That will undermine any possible claims about her broad appeal in the 2012 nominating contest. Supporting this hypothesis, people close to McCain have been blaming Palin for dragging down the ticket. Within the past week, unnamed McCain advisers have described Palin as a “diva” and a “whack job.”

What do you think?

Survey USA released a new Iowa poll today, conducted for WHO-TV in Des Moines and KAAL-TV in Mason City. Barack Obama leads John McCain 55 percent to 40 percent. The poll reveals a massive gender gap. Among men, Obama leads 48-46, and among women he leads 61-34. Perhaps most significant,

Among the 32% of respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already cast ballots, Obama leads by 40 points […].

Tom Harkin leads Christopher Reed by 61 percent to 35 percent.

We ought to be able to elect a lot of down-ticket Democrats in this kind of environment. The election in Iowa is a lost cause for John McCain, and that may depress Republican turnout on Tuesday (despite Sarah Palin’s planned rally in Dubuque on Monday).

Give what you can to Becky Greenwald and Rob Hubler so they can run ads on tv and radio during the final stretch. The biggest hurdle for a challenger is almost always name recognition.

People across the country are noticing that these races are winnable. Here’s a post from the Down With Tyranny blog, and here’s one from Open Left.

On a related note, you can replay a live chat the Des Moines Register hosted with Hubler yesterday by clicking here.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention that you can view Greenwald’s final ad here and read the script here. Hubler’s tv ad is here (scroll down past the text of the Des Moines Register’s endorsement editorial).

The Ames Progressive blog recently featured these races too.

Barack Obama’s rally in downtown Des Moines on Friday morning will grab most of the media attention, but there will be many, many rallies around Iowa this weekend.

Beginning on Saturday and continuing through Monday, Senator Tom Harkin and Governor Chet Culver will headline a 16-stop “Count on Us” bus tour, while top state officials and our candidates for Congress will headline a “Count on Us” caravan.

I’ve posted the full schedule after the jump. No matter where you live, you probably wouldn’t have to drive far to get to one of these events. Feel free to post a diary afterward to tell us how it went.