New Hampshire recount shows no systemic problems so far

The hand recount in New Hampshire is about a third of the way to completion, and if you want to know what’s been uncovered so far, I recommend this informative diary at Daily Kos or this informative diary at Blue Hampshire.

I applaud Dennis Kucinich for asking for this recount. If it helps restore confidence in the election machinery (in New Hampshire, at least), it will have been $60,000 very well spent.  

Why has Iowa not sent a woman to Congress or Terrace Hill?

As some Clinton supporters at MyDD never tire of reminding me, Iowa and Mississippi are the only two states that have never elected a woman governor, senator or Congressional representative.

Over at Iowa Independent, Douglas Burns wrote a feature on Ann Selzer, pollster for the Des Moines Register. She commented:

“I’m rather stymied by Iowa’s failure to elect a woman,” Selzer said. She chalks it up to lack of strong candidates of that gender so far rather than any deep-seeded sexism among Iowa natives.

Democrats are clearly not to blame for this problem. We have nominated two women for governor and many women for Congress. We’ve also nominated women to many statewide offices, and some of those, like Bonnie Campbell and Patty Judge, have been elected.

I think one issue is that we’ve got a lot of long-serving incumbents here, and rarely have we had open seats. Sheila McGuire ran for an open Congressional seat in 1994, but that was in the most Republican district in Iowa. Every other woman I can think of who has run for Congress in Iowa has had to face off against an incumbent. As we know, more than 90 percent of incumbents are reelected to Congress.

Almost every ten years, Iowa loses a Congressional district, which means that even if an incumbent retires, there may not be an open seat available.

Roxanne Conlin ran for governor when the seat was open in 1982, but perhaps there was some backlash against the Equal Rights Amendment at that time. She also was not able to beat back the “Taxanne” message coming from the right-wing.

I believe that many women elected from other states benefit from belonging to a political dynasty. Some states have elected exactly one woman to Congress, and that woman happens to be the widow, daughter or grand-daughter of a long-serving incumbent. For instance, I think we can all agree that Stephanie Herseth would not have won an election in South Dakota without the Herseth family name. We haven’t had any women in that situation in Iowa.

About five years ago I attended a political science conference and heard Stephen Ansolabahere speak. He has published great work on Americans’ voting behavior.

I asked him about Iowa’s reluctance to elect women to high office. One point he made, which surprised me, is that of the 50 states, Iowa has the largest percentage of the population living in small towns and rural areas.

Nebraska, by contrast, is one of the most “urban” states, with a very large percentage of the population living in the Omaha or Lincoln metro areas and a much smaller percentage living in the smaller towns.

Perhaps the “political culture” of Iowa’s smaller towns creates a less friendly environment for women candidates. Most of the women in the Iowa legislature come from urban or suburban districts.

I think that the lack of opportunity for women to run for open seats is a bigger issue, though.

What do you think?

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that women candidates may have an even tougher time defeating incumbents, but that isn’t the case just in Iowa. Someone, and I’m sorry I can’t remember who, studied 20 “serious Democratic challenges” to Republican-held seats in the U.S. House in 2006. A serious challenger was defined as someone who had raised at least $1 million by the end of June 2006. Of those 20 challengers, 13 were men and 7 were women.

On election day 2006, 12 of the 13 men on that list defeated the Republican incumbent, while 6 of the 7 women lost (the exception was Kirsten Gillibrand in New York).

In each case, you can construct a narrative for why the woman lost that has nothing to do with gender. However, looking at the totality of the outcomes in 2006, I think we can posit that the U.S. electorate is slightly more resistant to women challengers to Congressional incumbents.

SECOND UPDATE: I found this piece by Chris Bowers. He also wondered why Democratic women did so poorly in the 2006 elections. He noted that in the 30 Republican-held districts that were top targets for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s list, 21 of the Democratic candidates were men, and 9 were women. (Some of those were open seats, not challenges to incumbents.)

In those races, 20 of the 21 men won, while 8 of the 9 women lost. Again, it appears that American voters are more resistant to electing women to Congress, which could make the difference in a close race.

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Environmentalists, sign up for action alerts from the IEC

Just in time for the 2008 legislative session, the Iowa Environmental Council has created a new action alert center:

WHEN IOWA LAWMAKERS HEAR FROM THEIR CONSTITUENTS THEY LISTEN.  YOUR CALLS and EMAILS MAKE A DIFFERENCE!

Now you can receive these alerts, go to a special webpage to update your personal information at any time (e.g. your email address) and you can browse the site to see the latest information on pending Iowa bills related to environmental issues. You’ll find tools for your use, too, like a state legislative directory that allows you to look up your elected officials, and much more!

Take a look now.

There is a current alert waiting for you to respond to regarding renewable energy legislation. And there is lots of other information available about your lawmakers and state departments. At any time, you can go to our homepage at http://www.iaenvironment.org and click on the ICALL icon on the blue side bar.

I encourage people to sign up for this service and let your friends know about it. You can’t count on the media to report on important environmental legislation being considered at the statehouse.

These action alerts make it easy for you to stay in touch with your representative or senator. The corporate groups seeking to block environmental regulations will have people on the phone to legislators, so we need to do our part.

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Sierra Club: Iowa falls to fourth in wind power

Friday was the last day of public testimony before the Iowa Utilities Board on the proposed new coal-fired power plant in Marshalltown. The Sierra Club put out a release noting that while Iowa debates building more coal plants, other states in the region are overtaking us in wind power capacity.

Key excerpt:

“The difference is clearly policy,” said Mark Kresowik with the Sierra Club’s National Coal Campaign in Iowa.  “Illinois and Minnesota have passed policies that look to the future, such as Renewable Electric Standards, carbon dioxide reduction targets, and even a moratorium on new coal plants.  Iowa’s energy policy remains in the 20th century.”

Time for the Democratic-controlled legislature to do more on this front for Iowa. I’ve put the full text of the press release after the jump. It’s worth a read.

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South Carolina GOP results thread

Unfortunately, Mike Huckabee was not able to take this one. Fred Thompson won just enough evangelical voes to give John McCain the victory.

Yet again, Rudy finished behind Ron Paul, as he has in every contest so far.

From TPM, with 93 percent of precincts reporting:

McCain 33

Huckabee 30

Thompson 16

Romney 15

Paul 4

Giuliani 2

Hunter 0

Hunter is dropping out of the race. Thompson will probably follow soon and endorse McCain.

UPDATE: Jonathan Singer observes at MyDD that SC Republicans seemed less enthusiastic about voting this time than they did eight years ago:

Another way of looking at it, this is kind of an underwhelming win for McCain. Well, perhaps even a really unimpressive win. In 2000, McCain received 237,888 votes in coming in second place to George W. Bush. This time? A mere 134,474 votes, or more than 100,000 votes short of what he received eight years ago.

Link: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…

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Nevada results thread

I will update later when more results are available. For now, I am taking these Nevada results from TPM:

Clinton 51 percent

Obama 45

Edwards 4

Romney 52 percent

Paul 13

McCain 13

Huckabee 8

Thompson 8

Giuliani 4

Hunter 2

Time for Edwards and Obama supporters to face some hard truths.

Even if he had won Iowa and gotten the unions to jump off the fence, it looks like Edwards would not have been able to take Nevada from Hillary.

If Obama couldn’t win this state despite getting favorable media coverage, more than 80 percent of the black vote (according to entrance polling), and the key union endorsements in Nevada, then it seems that no one could have beaten Clinton here.

Hillary won at least 6 of the 9 at-large precincts on the Las Vegas strip, and one of them was a tie. Those precincts supposedly were going to be dominated by the Culinary Union, which backed Obama. That’s why Clinton supporters went to court (unsuccessfully) to try to block the at-large precincts. But Culinary was not able to deliver for Obama in most of those precincts.

I haven’t seen any data yet on what percentage of Democratic caucus-goers were independents or Republicans who switched party affiliation. Total turnout shattered predictions and exceeded 114,000.

Many of the February 5 states will hold closed primaries, which means Obama will not benefit from strong support among independents and Republicans.

Entrance polling in Nevada suggests that Clinton led Obama 51-38 among women (who made up 59 percent of caucus-goers) and crushed Obama 64-26 among Latinos. That suggests a steep uphill climb for Obama in some of the larger February 5 states.

Obama supporters have been calling for Edwards to drop out, but I am not convinced that doing so would benefit Obama. In South Carolina, Edwards is  taking more away from Hillary.

Whichever candidate you favor, it’s obvious that Clinton is in the driver’s seat. She will have to make some big mistakes to lose the nomination now.

Obama was not able to put her away in New Hampshire, and it’s going to cost him big.

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Interesting blog: 2008 Democratic Convention Watch

I just learned about the blog 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. It looks like a good place for political junkies to bookmark and check from time to time. The focus is “News and views about the 2008 Democratic National Convention and the race for the nomination.”

There’s a delegate counter and archive of past blog posts on the left-hand side of the page.

Recent posts include this one listing all of the “superdelegates” who have endorsed each of the Democratic candidates. If you click through, there is a link to a list of all the superdelegates who have not yet committed to a candidate.

You can also learn about the DNC’s standing committees on credentials, platform and rules, including who will co-chair each of those committees.

Some of you may be interested in this post about how to apply to be one of the DNC’s official state bloggers. Apparently one blogger from each state will be credentialed at the convention in Denver.  

State Senator Larry McKibben Contemplating Retirement

Iowa Politics has a story up about the possible retirement of State Senator Larry McKibben in Senate District 22.

Sen. Larry McKibben, R-Marshalltown, chose not to seek the Senate minority leader post in September because of work-related responsibilities. He said Thursday he hasn't decided if his name will appear on the November ballot.

“I am talking it over with my family,” McKibben said. “I will make my decision in the next couple weeks.”

McKibben won reelection in 2004 by less than 800 votes, in a race where over $425,000 was spent. McKibben might not be looking forward to another long summer and fall on the campaign trail or the time trying to raise that much cash.

Democrats already have a candidate who announced his campaign for McKibben's seat in Steve Sodders, a Deputy Sheriff in Marshall County. Sodders has been knocking on doors throughout the district this fall and has been working hard raising money. Sodders has two fundraisers coming up in the next few weeks.

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Everyone move to Windsor Heights

I saw in today’s Des Moines Register that a recent random phone survey of 354 registered voters in my corner of the world found that 99 percent are satisfied with the quality of life in Windsor Heights, and 89 percent described the city services and quality of life as “above average.”

The poll reached a substantial proportion of adults in Windsor Heights, which has a total population of just under 5,000.

I am not too surprised by the survey. Windsor Heights is no more than a 10-15 minute drive from most spots in the Des Moines metro area (it takes about 20 minutes to get to the airport and the zoo). There are some nice locally-owned shops and restaurants, as well as a huge Hy-Vee and Wal-Mart for those who like big box stores. The city services are generally good, and houses for sale usually move quickly, unless they are obviously overpriced.

There are two good elementary schools in the suburb (Cowles Montessori in the Des Moines Public Schools and Clive Elementary in the West Des Moines school district). Windsor Elementary in the Des Moines Public Schools is just a few blocks over the border in Des Moines and also has a good reputation.

I live in the house I grew up in, which my parents bought in 1968. When I started volunteering as a precinct captain for the Kerry campaign in 2003, I was amazed by how many parents of my childhood friends still lived in the homes they bought in the 1950s or 1960s. A lot of Democrats I didn’t know recognized my name and told me they remembered my parents or one of my siblings.

We have friends who moved to a home about a half-mile from ours this past summer, and they bought that home from the original owners.

Windsor Heights was heavily Republican during my childhood, but like inner-ring suburbs across the country, it has become more Democratic over the years. Unfortunately, we are in very Republican districts (dominated by other suburban neighborhoods) for the Iowa House and Senate.

Consider this an open thread to talk about the virtues of your city or your neighborhood.

50-State Blog Network Weekly Roundup

Thanks again to Betsy for the roundup. -desmoinesdem

Here is your roundup for the eve of the Nevada Caucuses.  Scroll to the bottom and head on over to My Silver State for some excellent and balanced (they actually admit John Edwards exists) coverage of the top three Democratic candidates.

The writers at the state blogs are working hard to bring us the latest on the Dem congressional candidates.  Check them out, especially if you live in a very red district and need a Democrat to adopt.

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Obama racks up endorsements going into Nevada

Hillary Clinton’s surprise win in the New Hampshire primary put her campaign back on track, and most observers would agree that she is slightly favored to win the nomination now.

However, Barack Obama seems set to win South Carolina, and if he can win Nevada as well (which seems likely, given his union endorsements), then he would have more momentum going into the February 5 primaries. More than 20 states will vote that day. So far Clinton leads Obama in most of them, but momentum can change a lot.

The Obama campaign has rolled out a lot of endorsements since New Hampshire, including:

Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska

Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona

Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri

Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota

Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts

Congressmembers George Miller and Zoe Lofgren of California

Ned Lamont of the Connecticut Democratic Party

UPDATE: noneed4thneed points out that I forgot Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont and former Senator Gary Hart of Colorado. And speaking of Hart, wouldn’t he have been a great president? Just bad luck to be running the cycle that the media decided an affair disqualified someone from contention.

Those people represent a mixture of red, purple and blue states. I am still not convinced that Obama is more electable than Clinton, but these people seem to disagree.

Obama’s campaign in Nevada is putting a lot of emphasis on urging Republicans and independents to vote for him. Listen to these radio ads he is running, which do not mention the Democratic Party and inform independents and Republicans that they can caucus for him:

I’ve got a post in my head in response to Obama’s recent comments about Ronald Reagan. Actually, this post has been in my head for some time, as Obama is both too much like Reagan for my comfort level, yet not enough like Reagan to realign American politics in the Democrats’ favor. I will save that post for another day, when I have more time to write.

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Ed Fallon for Congress

As Chase Martyn reported for Iowa Independent, Ed Fallon officially announced on Wednesday that he will challenge Leonard Boswell for the Democratic nomination in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

Populista put up a diary here urging people to vote for Ed as Democracy for America’s “All-Star” candidate. I have already done so, and I hope you will too.

I’ll be writing more about this race in the coming months. For now, I want to briefly lay out the case for supporting Fallon’s challenge.

Leonard Boswell is a good person. I have voted for him every time and have contributed to his Congressional campaigns. However, he has been too willing to go along with the Bush administration on too many issues. He has voted to repeal the estate tax based on specious arguments from the Grover Norquist crowd. He voted for Bush’s horrible energy bill. He has voted to enable the Bush administration’s policies on Iraq and torture.

We have a chance to get a rock-solid progressive in this seat, and we should take it. While in the legislature, Ed Fallon had a 100 percent voting record on choice and labor issues, and was very strong on the environment and many other areas of importance.

Boswell sits on the Transportation Committee and has done nothing to help bring our national transportation policy back into balance. Fallon is talking about the need to get a handle on urban sprawl and invest in alternative forms of transportation as well as new road construction.

We are going to hear a lot from the Democratic Party establishment about Fallon supposedly being unelectable. I want those people to explain to me why Boswell’s winning margin in 2006 was so much less than Chet Culver’s winning margin in the counties that make up the third district.

Many Democrats, particularly progressives, simply do not feel that Boswell is representing our interests well enough.

Fallon has the potential to draw cross-over votes from independents and Republicans. He did it in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, and he can do it again. But just as important, he is a candidate Democrats can enthusiastically vote for.

Those who say that we can’t take a risk on replacing Boswell also need to explain their game plan for holding on to Iowa’s third district after the 2010 census. Iowa is going to lose a Congressional seat when the districts are redrawn. The most likely scenario I can see is that Boswell would retire in 2012, leaving us with no incumbent to run against Tom Latham or Steve King in the newly-drawn third district.

We are better off getting a new incumbent in place before that happens.

Finally, I believe that Fallon’s challenge will benefit Democrats even if he does not win the primary. As Chris Bowers reported last month at Open Left, Boswell voted against an Iraq funding bill for the first time ever after rumors about Fallon’s challenge started circulating.

I have also heard that Boswell recently signed onto a global-warming pledge that he refused to sign months earlier, when Congressmen Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack backed it.

We’ve seen the voting records of other Democratic incumbents improve after progressives challenged them in primaries. Jane Harman and Ellen Tauscher of California come to mind. If Boswell does win the primary, I expect that his Congressional votes will better represent the will of his constituents.

If Fallon wins the primary, we will be favored to elect a strong progressive to this seat, given his base in Polk County and the expected high turnout for Democrats in a presidential election year.

I respect the views of Bleeding Heartland readers who are sticking with Boswell, but I urge you to consider the case for Fallon. If you already support Fallon, please consider donating to or volunteering for his campaign. They will need all hands on deck, since the party establishment will line up behind Boswell.

Democratic debate open thread

I watched the rerun of the debate last night and thought all three candidates did well enough. Apparently Frank Luntz’s focus group favored Edwards, but supporters of all three candidates had plenty to cheer on.

If you want to read why Clinton “rocked,” click on alegre’s diary with video clips:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

If you want the pro-Obama version, Steven R has clips and analysis for you here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Edwards fans will enjoy NCDemAmy’s diary, also with video clips:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

Strong Action Needed in Iowa to Cut Energy Use

Maryland's Governor Martin O'Malley is being strongly urged by his top energy advisor to take aggressive steps to cut energy consumption, and the state should create a multimillion-dollar fund to give homeowners an array of incentives to use less power.

The blueprint, to be released by the Maryland Energy Administration, will offer 20 proposals to help O'Malley (D) deliver on his ambitious pledge to reduce the state's energy consumption by 15 percent in seven years and stave off rolling blackouts that experts predict could occur in three years.

The report recommends that the state encourage the fledgling solar and wind energy industries to invest in the region and help Maryland more than double its use of renewable power.

Iowa Governor Chet Culver has been a proponent of renewable energy, creating the Iowa Power Fund, the Iowa Office of Energy Independence, and saying he wants Iowa to become the renewable energy capital of the world.

Culver has made a goal for Iowa to produce enough wind energy by 2015 to power 500,000 homes and cut carbon emissions by more than 7 billion tons per year. It seems that a program like the one in Maryland would help Culver and Iowans reach this goal.

Instead there are plans to build coal-fired power plants in Marshalltown and Waterloo that would emit more carbon into the air.

If Culver was serious about making Iowa into the renewable energy capital, one would think he would be stressing cutting energy use.

Help stop the Marshalltown coal plant this week

As I posted a few days ago, this is the time to take action to stop a new coal-fired power plant from being built in Marshalltown. Coal not only contributes to global warming, it also increases the rate of asthma in nearby residents, as well as mercury levels in fish.

The Iowa Utility Board will hold hearings starting tomorrow, January 14, at 10 am. The hearings will take place at the Whitehall Auditorium on the grounds of the Iowa Veterans Home (1301 Summit St, Marshalltown).

The invaluable noneed4thneed has information on the testimony of Iowa native James Hansen, a climate scientist from NASA.

After the jump I’m putting information about events this week organized by the Cedar Rapids-based environmental law group Plains Justice. For more on that group, check out their website.

If you attend any of these events, or hearings at the IUB, please put up a diary with your impressions.

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