Second in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2026 state and federal elections.

The Republican-controlled legislature in Wisconsin moved quickly to reduce the powers of the governor and attorney general after Democrats won elections to those offices in 2018. GOP lawmakers in North Carolina executed a “lame-duck power grab” in 2024 to take authority away from several offices that Democrats would soon occupy.

But Iowa lawmakers appear unlikely to convene before January to undercut Governor-elect Rob Sand or Attorney General-elect Nate Willems.

Asked about prospects for a lame-duck legislative session, House Speaker Pat Grassley told statehouse reporters on November 6, “I would say at this point in time, that’s not on the table.” He added that conversations among House Republicans have focused on “what does the next few months look like as we lead into session.” Grassley said he doesn’t see a reason to have a special session.

A lot will change at the state capitol when Iowa returns to divided government in January, with a much smaller contingent of Republicans in the Iowa House. But familiar faces will remain in charge of both legislative chambers.

Turnover will be greater at the committee level in the aftermath of the November elections.

House Republicans stay the course after “difficult night”

Following a caucus meeting at the capitol on November 6, Iowa House Republicans announced that members unanimously re-elected the same leadership team that guided the caucus during the 2026 session:

First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2026 state and federal elections. This post first appeared on the Iowa politics with Laura Belin newsletter, where Laura publishes weekly summaries of her radio show, “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The 30-minute program is also available through all podcast platforms.

It’s been quite the week. I woke up on election day to see the New York Times had published Erik Wemple’s story about my years-long battle for access while covering state government. Here is a gift link. Erik’s research and attention to detail were remarkable—though it was strange to have a reporter following me around for a couple of days!

Erik’s article opens with Governor Kim Reynolds’ press secretary closing the door on me in January. Knowing a community has my back has gotten me through many frustrating days, and I will always be grateful to those who reached out then. When I told Danya Issawi my readers are supportive and even protective, that’s what I had in mind. Danya interviewed me recently for a Substack series on local news writers.

I was out late Tuesday night at the Democrats’ main victory party in Des Moines. Spencer Dirks and I were on the air early Wednesday to break down the election that ended the Iowa Republican trifecta and transformed our Congressional delegation from six Republicans and zero Democrats to a 4-2 Democratic split.

The sound file for our November 4 show (a special 60-minute edition) is available through all podcast platforms. Here’s a detailed summary, for those who would rather read than listen.

Jeff Ewoldt grew up in northwest Iowa, currently practices law in Des Moines, and has always had a keen interest in nature and conservation.

“Autumn is a second spring when every leaf is a flower.”
-Albert Camus

When I recently came across this quote by everyone’s favorite French anarcho-syndacalist philosopher, I thought it was particularly fitting this year. While we have seen the typical changing hues of deciduous trees, many wildflower enthusiasts statewide have also recently reported finding numerous plants in bloom that we normally see only in the Spring.

I’ll leave it to the folks more scientifically trained than I to offer their explanation for this “second Spring.” In the meantime, here are some of the late-season wildflowers I’ve photographed during my wanderings through various state, county, and city parks the past couple of weeks.

My first stop was my own yard, where New England asters have gradually migrated the over the years from a patch at the end of the driveway to my front step. I took these pictures on October 11, 15, and 25.

“We have a big job ahead of us,” Chris McGowan told a Republican crowd in Sioux City on October 22. “They expect Iowa four to do the heavy lifting for the rest of the state. Are we up for the task?”

McGowan is the GOP nominee in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, an open seat. His remarks underscore why President Donald Trump held that rally in Sioux City, and why Vice President JD Vance headlined an event in Council Bluffs in September.

While Iowans in the first, second, and third Congressional districts could help Democrats win back the U.S. House of Representatives, voters in the fourth district may determine who runs state government.

Republican candidates need big margins in northern and western Iowa in order to win statewide elections. Iowa GOP state chair Jeff Kaufmann screamed at the Sioux City crowd, “It is not an overstatement to say that the fourth district is our secret weapon. We need you again, fourth district! Will you be there for us?”

Signs suggest Republicans may leave votes on the table in the reddest part of Iowa. The two candidates most at risk of underperforming there are U.S. Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and Attorney General Brenna Bird.

Iowans are voting early in large numbers this year, but most people who participate in the 2026 election will cast their ballot between 7:00 AM and 8:00 PM on November 3.

Here’s what you need to know if you plan to vote at the polls this Tuesday.

This post also lays out the options for Iowans who received an absentee ballot but haven’t yet returned it. Spoiler alert: don’t mail it now.

John Gilbert farms with a brother, a son, and their wives along South Fork, a tributary of the Iowa River. In addition to non-GMO row crops, they raise small grains, forages, cattle, and antibiotic free pigs they sell to Niman Ranch. John is a volunteer with the Southfork Watershed Alliance, and is active in Practical Farmers of Iowa and the Iowa Farmers Union. Their farm has been recognized for its work toward sustainability. 

I’m certain I’m not the only one voting like my life depends on it. Quite literally, here in Iowa it does.

Iowa’s degraded water and record high cancer rates are impossible to ignore, meaning we have reason to live in fear. Water quality and cancer are not specifically on the ballot, but the choices we make will determine if Iowa has any chance of beginning the long battle to cleaner water and a healthier future. 

No item on the ballot has a more direct impact on water quality and cancer than the constitutional amendment (Amendment 1) requiring a two-thirds super majority of the legislature to approve any income tax increases. If Iowans approve this amendment, we’re guaranteed nothing will change, except more of us will die needlessly.

A “NO” vote is a vote for better water quality, for keeping thousands of Iowans from suffering with cancer, and for having a future that doesn’t include a bottom-of-the-barrel economy.

Molly Buck is a public school teacher, Democratic candidate for House District 41, and former Iowa state representative.

I’ve been a teacher for more than 30 years, and I can tell you that teaching in Iowa today looks very different from when I first arrived.

When I started teaching, I thought I’d found an educator’s dream. Iowa’s schools were among the best in the country. We had well-funded classrooms and an Area Education Agency system that provided incredible support for teachers and students. If I had a child who needed additional help, I could reach out in the morning and sometimes have a specialist in my classroom by noon.

That’s the Iowa I remember. And it’s the Iowa I believe we can be again.

But today, teachers are being asked to do more with less, and I’m worried about what that means for our kids.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com 

My mom warned, if the Fuller Brush man comes knocking, lock the door.

Back then, fast-talking Fuller Brush salesmen literally would stick a foot in the door to make a sale. Mom knew that once they came inside, it was hard to resist their smooth pitch and even harder to push them out.

The modern equivalent of the Fuller Brush man is the slick-talking career politician who never defines what he’s selling, refuses to admit who he really is, and never explains how he’ll pay for his shiny new ideas.

Zach Lahn, Republican candidate for governor, has his foot in Iowa’s door trying to sell his ill-defined ideas. In his latest TV ad, he claims he’s not a politician. Instead, he pretends to be a farmer, or sometimes an educator—but with zero classroom experience or college education classes.

I love Halloween, but Lahn is trying to trick us by pretending to be something he’s not. That won’t be a treat for Iowa public schools.

Jacob Welper is a lifelong North Iowan and is running for House District 59.

For a farm family, a foreclosure notice can put far more than a business at risk. It can threaten a home, a livelihood and land that holds generations of family history.

In North Iowa, the consequences extend beyond the farm gate. Local businesses, schools and communities depend on the families who work the land.

When financial trouble reaches that point, farmers deserve clear information and practical support. They also deserve to know that asking for help is nothing to be ashamed of.

The first step is to act promptly. Open every letter from your lender, keep copies and write down the deadlines. If you receive court papers, get legal help immediately. A conversation with the bank does not replace a response required by the court.

Amy Tagliareni is a former member of the Ankeny school board and the Democratic candidate for House District 42.

Ankeny is a community known for its growing neighborhoods, strong schools and families who work hard to build a good life. But there is another reality that deserves our attention: some of our neighbors are struggling to put food on the table.

According to the Des Moines Area Religious Council, its food pantry network assisted 3,705 Ankeny residents in fiscal year 2024. Nearly 45 percent of those receiving assistance were new to the network.

Those numbers challenge the assumption that food insecurity is a problem confined to other communities.

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on X @dcg1114.

“Money is the mother’s milk of politics” – Jesse Unruh

Modern politics is governed by one rule: TV advertising is effective and determines who wins elections.

But against this irresistible force rests an immovable object: President Donald Trump’s approval rating. This table represents the shocking shift in public opinion in the battleground U.S. Senate seats. Data on Trump’s 2024 vote share and approval come from my polling database; approval is based on the average of all polls ended between August 1 and October 23, 2026.

Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association. This post first appeared on Substack.

On October 27, I watched the debate between Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott and Republican incumbent Zach Nunn, who are competing to represent Iowa’s third Congressional District. 

Moderators Amanda Rooker and Jodi Long, both journalists at KCCI-TV, acquitted themselves as the professionals they are. In fact, their skills rival any team of moderators the networks might assign for a presidential debate, so congratulations to Amanda and Jodi. Job well done. 

If I have a bone to pick, it might be that centering the debate on the participants’ past voting records was of little importance to me. Nunn sits in the majority party in the U.S. House of Representatives, and Trone Garriott is from the minority party in the state Senate where Republicans hold a huge majority. Apples and oranges. 

Diane Porter of Fairfield first published this post on My Gaia, an email newsletter “about getting to know nature” and “giving her a helping hand in our own backyards.” Diane also maintains the Birdwatching Dot Com website and bird blog.

Flowering spurge (Euphorbia corollata) is a plant I feel connected to, because I discovered it on my land before I’d ever heard of it. Had to go home and look through my books to find out what it was. (This was before there were phone apps to ID the flowers.)

I learned it was a native wildflower of eastern North America. Some people call it “baby’s breath of the prairie,” because many tiny white blossoms form an airy, branching spray resembling the baby’s breath flowers that florists use as filler in bouquets.

I found flowering spurge mingling with tall grasses in a fence line. Each blossom was smaller than the tip of my little finger and stunningly white. I had to have it in my garden, and I resolved to check back later for seeds.

Joey Norris is a small business owner and Democratic volunteer in Red Oak. This is the prepared version of remarks he delivered at the No Kings: Vote Early rally in Windsor Heights on October 17, 2026. Bleeding Heartland covered his prosecution for felony election misconduct, his trial, and his acquittal here.

1. The lesson

There is a lesson being taught in this country right now.

It’s being taught in the White House and in statehouses, in courtrooms and county basements. It is a simple lesson, and it goes like this:

Don’t ask.

Don’t ask where the money went. Don’t ask who wrote the rule. Don’t ask why the rules apply to you and not to them. Sit down. Be grateful. Stay quiet.

But, we were taught a different lesson as kids.

I have seen some conflicting takes about Iowa’s early voting trends this year. So let’s take stock of where things stand.

This post draws on the latest figures released by the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, reflecting ballots received by county auditors through Saturday, October 24. That’s halfway through Iowa’s 20-day window for voting before election day.

I am comparing today’s numbers to the official figures from October 31, 2022—the same point before the last midterm election.

My main takeaway: don’t believe any predictions about who will win on November 3 based on which Iowans have already voted.

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. This essay first appeared on his Substack newsletter, Stray Thoughts. 

When a city plans something big, it should not check driver’s licenses at the door.

That is what happened earlier this month in Woodward. The City Council cancelled its regular meeting on October 12 and instead held what it called a “community conversation” in the Woodward-Granger High School auditorium.

The notice required attendees to show a photo ID with a Woodward address or a piece of mail with their name and Woodward address before they could enter.

Security officers and police were there to oversee the screening of IDs. I was there as president of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council and was turned away. So was a rural Dallas County resident interested in data centers. A KCCI reporter saw at least two others who were refused entry.

Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I am posting Iowa’s absentee ballot numbers, statewide and for each Congressional district, updated every day the Iowa Secretary of State’s office releases new figures.

You can compare this year’s numbers to daily charts from the last seven election cycles by clicking through to Bleeding Heartland’s archive of absentee ballot totals from 2024, 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012. But use caution when comparing, because Iowans could vote early for 40 days through 2016, and for 29 days in 2018 and 2020. Republicans shortened the early voting period to the current 20 days as part of a wide-ranging effort to suppress early voting in 2021.

In addition, many Iowans (especially Democrats) are more wary of voting by mail this year than in the past. That’s partly because President Donald Trump has tried to interfere with U.S. Postal Service delivery of ballots, and partly because the 2021 law required all ballots to arrive at county auditors’ offices by 8:00 pm on election day. (Late-arriving ballots used to be counted if they were postmarked before election day.)

The upshot is that lower totals for mailed ballots do not necessarily reflect less interest in voting early.

Early voting began on October 14 this year, and the first report from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office appeared on October 15. The office changed the format of its daily absentee ballot reports on October 20. Since the new tables are much more comprehensive than previous incarnations, I am posting those below, rather than creating my own tables, as I’ve done in past years.

Mike Tupper is the former Marshalltown police chief and the Democratic candidate for Iowa House District 52.

I spent 32 years in law enforcement, including more than thirteen years as Marshalltown’s police chief. I loved my career, and I learned a great deal about public safety, managing budgets, and solving problems with limited resources.

Those are lessons I want to bring to the Iowa legislature.

One thing I learned as police chief is that there’s a difference between talking about supporting law enforcement and actually giving officers the resources they need to do their jobs.

Adam Shriver is the host of the Canary in a Cornfield Podcast and Substack. He’s been writing and organizing around the connection between agriculture and public health in Iowa for the past five years.

First of all: much appreciation to Laura for letting me cross post my podcast here! You can find the Substack version here.

In this episode of Canary in a Cornfield, I speak with John McCracken, a reporter at Sentient Media, about the outlet’s nonprofit model and its focus on industrial agriculture and corporate accountability.

John explains Sentient’s Inside Iowa project and walks viewers through a new interactive map that plots roughly 11,000 medium-to-large factory farms across all 99 Iowa counties, estimates about 126 million animals and 170 billion pounds of manure annually, and links facilities to Iowa DNR records, violations, and nearby waterways and flood zones.