Up to now, the lack of a Republican candidate in Iowa House district 40 has represented one of the most spectacular recruiting failures in Iowa politics this year. Democratic State Representative John Forbes is a first-term incumbent in a wealthy suburban district where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats, and Mitt Romney outpolled Barack Obama in 2012. I've posted a map of House district 40 after the jump. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State's office indicate that the district contains 6,405 active registered Democrats, 7,385 Republicans, and 6,060 no-party voters. On paper, it's the most promising GOP pickup among the House seats where no Republican filed candidacy papers in time to be on the primary ballot.
I had assumed that Republicans would convene a special district convention this summer to nominate a challenger against Forbes. But I forgot about an obscure provision of Iowa law, which holds that
if there is no candidate on the official primary ballot of a political party for nomination to a particular office, a write-in candidate may obtain the party's nomination to that office in the primary if the candidate receives a number of votes equal to at least thirty-five percent of the total vote cast for all of that party's candidates for that office in the last preceding primary election for which the party had candidates on the ballot for that office.
Just 423 votes were cast in the 2012 Republican primary in Iowa House district 40, which means that a write-in candidate might need just 149 write-in votes on June 3 to receive the GOP nomination. Although few write-in candidates receive that many votes in Iowa legislative races, that is not an insurmountable hurdle. A well-organized write-in candidate for Windsor Heights City Council received more than 200 votes one year. Lots of Urbandale Republicans are presumably planning to vote on June 3, given the five-way primary for U.S. Senate and the six-way primary for the third Congressional district.
Late last week, a young guy named Jeremy Freeman announced his candidacy for the GOP nomination. I hear he has been knocking on doors in Urbandale, but I don't know much about him. His Facebook page contains little information, other than saying he is a "Bold New Conservative Leader." It appears that the Republican establishment quickly found an alternative write-in candidate, Ronda Bern. Her press release mentions that as well as being a homemaker and co-owner of Vannguard Utility Partners, "a multi-state underground locating business," Bern volunteers at the Lutheran Church of Hope. That's one of the largest congregations in the Des Moines metro area; hundreds of its members probably live in House district 40.
UPDATE: In response to Bleeding Heartland user rockm's question below, I confirmed with the Polk County Auditor's Office that if both Freeman and Bern receive more than 149 write-in votes, the GOP nomination will go to the person who received the larger number of votes.