It’s been a wildly successful week for U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.

Three days after U.S. Senator Joni Ernst confirmed she won’t seek re-election, the three-term member of Congress all but wrapped up the Republican nomination for Iowa’s Senate seat. President Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” shut the door on any realistic chance Hinson could lose the June 2026 primary.

But Hinson’s embrace of the Washington establishment could alienate a segment of Republicans she will need after the primary. And her slavish allegiance to Trump could become a liability for the likely nominee in the general election campaign.

Politico set off another round of speculation about U.S. Senator Joni Ernst’s future this week. Jordain Carney and Rachael Bade reported on July 10 that Ernst “is the next GOP senator on retirement watch,” with U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) “waiting in the wings” if the incumbent opts not to seek a third term.

Hinson brushed off the rumors, telling WHO Radio host Simon Conway she’s “100 percent on Team Joni” and hopes Ernst will run again. She added, “The DC media loves to obsess over things.” Notably, Hinson didn’t clarify whether she would run for Senate next year if the seat were open—nor did Conway ask her.

I’ve long believed Hinson is laying the groundwork to run for Senate as soon as Iowa has an open seat—presumably in 2028, when Senator Chuck Grassley’s eighth term will end.

So while I still expect Ernst to seek re-election, the latest coverage got me thinking: who would be the tougher opponent for the Democratic nominee in 2026? It’s usually harder to defeat an incumbent than to flip an open seat. But this race might be the exception that proves the rule.

UPDATE: Wahls formally launched his Senate bid on June 11. You can watch his interview with Laura Belin about the campaign here. Original post follows.

Dave Price had the scoop for Gray Media on March 28: State Senator Zach Wahls is “certainly listening” to those who have encouraged him to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Wahls is the first Democrat to publicly express interest in this race. Two-term Senator Joni Ernst has not formally launched her re-election campaign but is widely expected to seek a third term.

Wahls told Price he will decide whether to run for higher office after the Iowa legislative session. But he’s already criticizing Ernst, most recently in a March 26 news release that tied the senator to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “reckless mishandling of military plans” in a Signal group chat.

“You suck, Joni! That’s just the nicest way I can summarize how we’re all feeling about your reign so far,” says Joshua Smith in the first digital ad promoting his Republican campaign for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat.

The video previews what will be an aggressive campaign by Senator Joni Ernst’s 2026 primary challenger from the right.

UPDATE: Smith fleshed out his message against the incumbent in a digital ad launched on December 31. Original post follows.

Senator Joni Ernst has her first declared 2026 primary challenger. Joshua Smith announced on X/Twitter on December 5 that he plans to run against Ernst as a Republican in 2026. The “blue-collar, working-class veteran” and father of seven promised he would be “the most pro-life, pro-family, small government candidate running for a federal office” next cycle.

So far, Smith’s campaign looks more like a bid for online engagement than a serious threat to Ernst’s career. But in a December 9 telephone interview, he explained why he’s confident he can build a strong GOP primary campaign.