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IA-03: Who should run against David Young?

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Nov 10, 2014 at 11:17:21 AM CST

The Bleeding Heartland community has been discussing potential Democratic challengers in Iowa's first Congressional district here, and I expect people will have equally strong views about who should run in IA-03. David Young will be a much tougher opponent in 2016 than Rod Blum, the surprise winner in IA-01. Democrats don't have a voter registration advantage in the third district like they do in northeast Iowa. Young's many contacts in Washington will help him raise a ton of money. Furthermore, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley plans to run for re-election in 2016 and will pull out all the stops to help his former chief of staff Young.

Among the 16 counties in IA-03, Polk County is the only place Democrats have any bench to speak of. Since more than half the registered voters in the Congressional district live in Polk County, it will be critically important for any Democratic challenger to run up the score there. President Barack Obama carried Polk by about 32,000 votes in 2012 but only gained about 51.4 percent of the vote throughout the Congressional district. So, I would guess that any Democratic candidate would need to win Polk County by between 25,000 and 30,000 votes to have a shot against Young.

No doubt many Democrats will be thinking about this race. State Senator Matt McCoy is almost a sure bet, since he was ready to run for Congress way back in 2002 and has said many times he would consider running after outgoing Representative Tom Latham retired. Having just been re-elected to a four-year term, McCoy would not have to give up his Iowa Senate seat to seek higher office in 2016.

State Senator Janet Petersen would be an excellent candidate, but she is up for re-election in 2016, so would have to choose between running against Young and seeking another term in Iowa Senate district 18.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers?

Discuss :: (5 Comments)

Where things stand in the Iowa Senate races

by: desmoinesdem

Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 10:51:34 AM CST

Democrats are assured of maintaining their majority in the Iowa Senate, with one race headed for a recount and another to be decided in a December 11 special election.
There's More... :: (9 Comments, 470 words in story)

The 10 biggest Iowa political blunders of 2011

by: desmoinesdem

Thu Dec 29, 2011 at 08:54:21 AM CST

Let's review the most boneheaded moves from the year in Iowa politics.

This thread is not about wrongheaded policy choices. It may be stupid to cut early childhood education programs, kneecap the state Environmental Protection Commission, or pass an "ag gag" bill that would never survive a court challenge. Yet all of those actions carry potential political benefits, since they appeal to well-funded interest groups or a large group of voters.

My top ten list of Iowa politicians' mistakes is after the jump.

There's More... :: (15 Comments, 1368 words in story)

Cindy Golding still considering Iowa Senate district 48 bid

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Nov 14, 2011 at 18:00:46 PM CST

Less than a week after losing the special election in Iowa Senate district 18, Republican Cindy Golding confirmed that she may run for the Iowa Senate next year in the new district 48.
There's More... :: (0 Comments, 844 words in story)

Iowa Senate district 18: Preliminary post-election analysis

by: albert

Wed Nov 09, 2011 at 06:18:03 AM CST

(A revealing look at absentee numbers and election-day results. - promoted by desmoinesdem)

Without a doubt, the superlative early voting effort by Democrats and allied groups is largely responsible for Democrat Liz Mathis' landslide victory over Republican Cindy Golding. Although the results are still unofficial and precinct-level demographics are not yet available, sufficient detail exists to draw some preliminary conclusions from the early reporting.
There's More... :: (0 Comments, 707 words in story)

Iowa Senate district 18 and local election results thread: Liz Mathis wins

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 21:41:13 PM CST

Any comments on today's election results are welcome in this thread. Polls closed at 9 pm in Iowa, but returns from the special election in Senate district 18 are coming in slowly. I will update this thread later as the outcome becomes clear. With six out of 40 precincts reporting, Democrat Liz Mathis leads Republican Cindy Golding by 5859 votes to 2474. UPDATE: Looks like a big win for Mathis. With 75 percent of precincts reporting, Mathis leads by 10,651 votes (58 percent) to 7,613 votes (41 percent).

SECOND UPDATE: The Linn County Auditor's office posted unofficial results here (pdf). With all 40 precincts reporting, Mathis received 13,184 votes (55.8 percent), Golding received 10,283 votes (43.5 percent), and Constitution Party candidate Jon Tack received 151 votes (0.64 percent).

Democrats have retained control of the Iowa Senate with a 26-24 majority for the 2012 legislative session. It may even be a "stronger" majority if Mathis turns out to be less conservative than her predecessor, Swati Dandekar. Iowa Senate Republicans won't be in a good mood when they elect a new minority leader on Thursday.

Nationally, Democrats have had good election results in Ohio (repealing a law that restricted collective bargaining rights) and Kentucky (holding the governor's chair). It's not yet clear whether Democrats will retain a Virginia Senate majority. I was surprised to see that Mississippi voters defeated a "personhood" ballot initiative stating that life begins at conception.

What races are you watching tonight? The incumbents on the Des Moines City Council easily won re-election. My two preferred candidates lost the Windsor Heights City Council election. Other Polk County results are here.

THIRD UPDATE: Democrats and allies are celebrating the Mathis victory with statements I've posted after the jump. The Iowa Democratic Party had lots of outside help with early GOTV from labor unions such as the Iowa State Education Association, the LGBT advocacy group One Iowa, the Planned Parenthood Voters of Iowa PAC, and the national 527 group Progressive Kick.

FOURTH UPDATE: An amazing result from Arizona tonight: voters recalled State Senate President Russell Pearce, author of the notorious "show me your papers" immigration law (which is being litigated in federal court). Apparently no state senator has ever been recalled in Arizona before. Pearce had been a leading opponent of the state's "clean elections" public financing system.

FINAL UPDATE: The official canvass showed 13,324 votes for Mathis (56.0 percent), 10,322 votes for Golding (43.4 percent), 151 votes for Tack, and nine write-in votes.

There's More... :: (6 Comments, 737 words in story)

Iowa Senate district 18 election day news and discussion thread (updated)

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 08:58:25 AM CST

Today's forecast calls for rain and cold temperatures in Linn County as Iowa Senate district 18 voters determine whether the Senate will remain Democratic-controlled for the 2012 session or deadlocked at 25-25. The weather doesn't seem bad enough to be a significant factor, but if it does keep some voters home, that's probably good news for Democrat Liz Mathis. She continues to lead Republican Cindy Golding in early voting.

The latest absentee ballot numbers and other news clips from the special election campaign are after the jump.

UPDATE: New absentee numbers for Senate district 18 are below.

There's More... :: (13 Comments, 1756 words in story)

Poll shows Mathis leading in Iowa Senate district 18

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Nov 07, 2011 at 06:10:00 AM CST

Democrat Liz Mathis has banked more early votes than Republican Cindy Golding for Tuesday's special election in Iowa Senate district 18, and a survey by Public Policy Polling puts her narrowly ahead in the final days of the campaign.
There's More... :: (6 Comments, 379 words in story)

Updated Iowa Senate district 18 absentee ballot numbers

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 17:43:46 PM CDT

Democrat Liz Mathis continues to lead in both absentee ballots requested and returned for the November 8 special election in Iowa Senate district 18. After the jump I've posted details as of 5 pm on November 4.

If you haven't read it already, Bleeding Heartland user albert's precinct-level analysis of the early voting numbers is well worth your time.

Note: Senate district 18 residents can vote in person on Saturday from 8 am to 5 pm at the Linn County Auditor's office at Westdale Mall.

UPDATE: Absentee ballot numbers for Senate district 18 residents only are now after the jump.

There's More... :: (4 Comments, 250 words in story)

McKinley resigning as Iowa Senate Republican leader, won't run in 2012

by: desmoinesdem

Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 08:02:08 AM CDT

Iowa Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election in 2012 and will step down as leader of his party's caucus when Senate Republicans meet in Des Moines on November 10. After the jump I've posted background on the drive to oust McKinley and thoughts about which Senate Republican will take his place next week.

McKinley's retirement leaves Republicans without an obvious candidate in the new Senate district 14, which should be competitive in 2012. A map of this swing district is also below.

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 1026 words in story)

Iowa Senate district 18: Early voting trends

by: albert

Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 06:47:33 AM CDT

(Fascinating precinct-level analysis. - promoted by desmoinesdem)

The early voting numbers appear quite promising for Democratic candidate Liz Mathis. As of 2 November, the Democrats have exceeded their 2010 general election return total, while the Republican ballot requests (thus far) fall short of 2010 early voting, with a substantially larger lag in returns. 
There's More... :: (6 Comments, 542 words in story)

Latest early voting numbers from Iowa Senate district 18

by: desmoinesdem

Wed Nov 02, 2011 at 20:35:16 PM CDT

UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Democrat Liz Mathis continues to hold a significant lead in Iowa Senate district 18 early voting, judging from the latest absentee ballot numbers from the Linn County Auditor's Elections Office.

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 306 words in story)

Liz Mathis still has early vote edge in Iowa Senate district 18 (updated)

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Nov 01, 2011 at 06:57:01 AM CDT

UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Absentee ballot requests and returns continue to favor Democrat Liz Mathis over Cindy Golding, her Republican opponent in the Iowa Senate district 18 special election.

The latest numbers from the Linn County Auditor's Elections office are after the jump, along with recent comments about marriage equality by the Senate district 18 candidates.

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 2542 words in story)

News from the Iowa Senate district 18 debates

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Oct 28, 2011 at 09:53:00 AM CDT

UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Democrat Liz Mathis and Republican Cindy Golding debated two nights in a row this week. Highlights from their encounters are after the jump, along with updated absentee ballot numbers for the Senate district 18 special election.

There's More... :: (1 Comments, 1323 words in story)

Competitive GOP primary coming in Iowa Senate district 48

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Oct 28, 2011 at 06:24:45 AM CDT

Two men from Delaware County, Dan Zumbach and Brian Cook, have declared their intention to seek the Republican nomination in the new Iowa Senate district 48. Their plans indicate that a competitive GOP primary will determine Democrat Nate Willems' opponent whether or not Cindy Golding of Linn County follows through on her plans to run in Senate district 48 next year as well. Golding is the GOP nominee for the November 8 special election in Iowa Senate district 18.

A district map and background on Zumbach and Cook are after the jump.

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 814 words in story)

Iowa Senate district 18: Early vote lead for Liz Mathis

by: desmoinesdem

Wed Oct 26, 2011 at 07:04:47 AM CDT

UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Two weeks before the special election in Iowa Senate district 18, the number of absentee ballots requested and returned favored Democratic candidate Liz Mathis over Republican Cindy Golding by a two to one margin. Details are after the jump, along with other recent news about the race.

There's More... :: (3 Comments, 1315 words in story)

National Organization for Marriage all in for Cindy Golding

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Oct 21, 2011 at 13:53:50 PM CDT

The National Organization for Marriage has started spending money supporting Republican candidate Cindy Golding in the Iowa Senate district 18 special election. After the jump I've posted the first direct-mail piece from the group, which puts a questionable spin on Golding's comments about marriage.

For now, NOM has pledged to support Golding "with a series of mailers and other activities" before November 8. Bob Vander Plaats' FAMiLY Leader organization will also be involved with the independent expenditures. NOM spent heavily on the 2009 Iowa House district 90 special election, paying for television and radio commercials as well as direct mail. Those efforts didn't stop Democrat Curt Hanson from winning by a narrow margin.

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 729 words in story)

Iowa Senate district 18 news roundup

by: desmoinesdem

Thu Oct 20, 2011 at 09:12:00 AM CDT

Only 20 days remain before the special election in Iowa Senate district 18. Both parties are spending heavily on the race, judging from campaign finance reports released yesterday.  
There's More... :: (0 Comments, 1028 words in story)

Another Iowa Senate Republican calls for leader to step down

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Oct 14, 2011 at 08:13:26 AM CDT

State Senator Bill Dix lacked the votes to follow through on his recent attempt to replace Paul McKinley as Iowa Senate Minority Leader, but he doesn't appear ready to abandon the effort. On Wednesday State Senator Rick Bertrand publicly called for McKinley to step aside.
There's More... :: (4 Comments, 815 words in story)

Romney leads, Cain surges to second in new Iowa poll

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Oct 11, 2011 at 13:49:11 PM CDT

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney narrowly leads while former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain has surged to second place, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll of Iowa Republicans. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama is slightly ahead of both Romney and Texas Governor Rick Perry among registered Iowa voters.
There's More... :: (3 Comments, 750 words in story)
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